Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

（原标题：瑞银：香港IPO集资额明年有望超3000亿港元 外资继续回流） 毕马威近期发布的报告称，预计2025年港股IPO集资额达2721亿港元，同比上升210%，自2019年后再度 登上全球第一。 李镇国表示，IPO数量的增加为市场提供了更丰富的投资选择，这种"百花齐放"的局面有助于提升市场 活跃度，吸引更多资金与关注，进而对二级市场形成支撑。 在具体的IPO市场展望上，李镇国透露，不排除2026年港股出现集资规模超过400亿港元的超大型IPO， 并预计仅2026年第一季度就将有数宗集资额过百亿港元的上市项目，主要集中在特专科技及消费类行业 等。 值得注意的是，他观察到今年已有小部分美资基金开始认购香港IPO，并预计2026年这一趋势将会增 强。 针对近期香港证监会与港交所向IPO保荐人发出的联席致函，李镇国解读称，此举更多是监管机构的一 种提醒，而非市场所言的"警告"。 （瑞银发布会现场 摄/张伟泽） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 香港报道 12月11日，瑞银全球投资银行部副主席及亚洲企业客户部联席主管李镇国在记者会上表示，预计香港在 2026年将迎来150至200宗新股上市，集资总额超过300 ...

Group 1 - The core expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 86%, driven by solid economic data and policy signals, nearly doubling from 32.7% on November 20 [1][2] - Key factors supporting this expectation include inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target, a cooling job market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, dovish statements from Fed officials, and signs of economic growth pressure [2][4] Group 2 - A critical week for the A-share market is approaching, with significant events from December 2 to December 9 that could reshape market expectations, including speeches from Fed officials and key economic data releases [4][5] - The most pivotal event will be the Fed's December meeting on December 9, which will determine whether to cut rates and provide guidance on monetary policy for 2026, impacting global liquidity pricing [5] Group 3 - If the Fed cuts rates, the primary impact on A-shares will be global liquidity easing and foreign capital inflow, benefiting several sectors [6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from lower financing costs, particularly in semiconductors, AI, and new energy, with significant inflows into the electronic industry [6][7] - The resource cycle and gold sectors may also gain, as rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices, while gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 4 - Domestic policy support is evident, with the People's Bank of China implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, creating a favorable environment for foreign capital inflow [7] - Retail investors are advised to focus on key sectors, manage positions carefully, and avoid pitfalls such as blindly chasing high-flying stocks or ignoring policy risks [8][9] - The focus should be on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as leading electronic and new energy stocks, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks that offer dividends [8][9]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted a bullish market outlook driven by the reallocation of resident wealth and foreign capital inflows, suggesting a significant market rally is in the making [1][3] - Current risk appetite among domestic investors remains low, with a substantial amount of wealth concentrated in fixed-income products, indicating potential for a market reversal [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Domestic risk appetite is at a low point, with a significant portion of wealth in bank wealth management and deposits, which has decreased from a high of approximately 10% in 2018 to 2% recently [1][3] - The current configuration of wealth suggests a buildup of potential market momentum, akin to stored fuel ready to ignite upon market triggers [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign capital allocation in Chinese assets is currently at a low level, with expectations of a reversal in the trend of foreign capital reduction, which could significantly impact market strength [3] - The combination of foreign capital inflows and the reallocation of domestic wealth is anticipated to be a major driving force for market growth [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may expect cyclical goods to outperform technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy will attract foreign capital. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains [3][10] - The report forecasts that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' ROE will continue to improve alongside the recovery of PPI growth, with A-share ROE stabilizing in Q3 2025 and Hong Kong stock ROE expected to stabilize by the end of 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The report identifies key sectors in Hong Kong stocks that are likely to benefit from improved ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry chain core assets), and cyclical sectors. It highlights that Hong Kong stocks are becoming increasingly attractive compared to A-shares due to better fundamentals and valuation discounts [10] - In 2025, foreign capital has been actively reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report also mentions that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with public funds showing a growing presence in the market [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that certain sectors, such as consumer staples, have underperformed for three consecutive years and may present investment opportunities in 2026. It also notes a recent increase in short-selling activity in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential volatility [10] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the tool manufacturing industry due to rising raw material costs, with significant price increases observed in hard alloy tools. This trend is expected to continue as demand from the electric vehicle supply chain remains strong [15][16] - The report concludes that the tool manufacturing sector is likely to see sustained performance improvements, driven by price adjustments and recovering profit margins as companies adapt to rising costs [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve officials indicate that there is still room for further interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market, which has significantly boosted market confidence and led to a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since October 2021 [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently close to 70%, up from 30% a week ago [1] Market Implications - Despite short-term disruptions in the Fed's rate cut schedule, the backdrop of potential rate cuts may lead to unexpected foreign capital inflows, coupled with sustained increases in southbound capital [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience further liquidity easing, particularly benefiting sectors that are more sensitive to liquidity, such as technology and pharmaceuticals [1] Related ETFs - Hong Kong innovative drug industry: Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) [1] - Hong Kong market AI sector: Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [2][3]. Market Performance - The performance of the Hong Kong IPO market this year has exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from high-quality companies and a continuous influx of foreign capital [3][5]. - Notable projects such as the IPO of Mixue Ice City and the placement of BYD have demonstrated the market's robust recovery, with the former achieving record frozen capital and attracting substantial foreign investment [5][6]. Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, particularly in optimizing IPO pricing and public market regulations, making it more attractive for large A-share companies to list [8][10]. - The new regulations have stabilized the allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, enhancing the pricing power of institutions and improving post-IPO performance [10]. Foreign Capital Inflow - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, especially from European and Middle Eastern investors, driven by the need for diversified asset allocation [11][12]. - The shift in foreign investment strategies reflects a rebalancing of portfolios, with increased interest in Chinese assets [12]. Future Trends - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, characterized by a virtuous cycle of good supply creating good demand, with many high-growth companies planning to list [13][14]. - Key trends for the future include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between supply and demand, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises, with Hong Kong serving as a vital capital platform [14].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [1] - UBS has played a pivotal role in this resurgence, leading significant projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice City and CATL, and participating in BYD's placement [1][2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, driven by the influx of quality companies and the return of foreign capital [1][6] Market Performance - The fundraising in the Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed expectations, with the market returning to the top globally in the first three quarters of the year [2] - The "924 policy" introduced last year signaled a positive shift, with high-quality foreign investors showing strong interest in projects like China Resources Beverage [2] - UBS's role in BYD's placement, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - Mixue Ice City is highlighted as a landmark project that opened the IPO market in Q1, setting a record for frozen capital and demonstrating strong institutional demand [3] - CATL's successful listing, with a "0 discount" pricing strategy, reflects the positive trend of domestic and foreign capital participation [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, allowing larger companies to issue shares at more reasonable scales [4] - The new regulations have stabilized the allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, enhancing pricing mechanisms and improving post-listing performance [4] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from Europe and the Middle East [5] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by the need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [5] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in the next 1-2 years remains optimistic, supported by a positive cycle of supply and demand [6] - Key trends include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between supply and demand, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [7]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [1][2] - UBS has played a significant role in this resurgence, leading several high-profile projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice City and CATL, and the placement for BYD [1][2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, driven by the influx of quality companies and the continued return of foreign capital [1][2] Market Performance - The fundraising amount in the Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed HKD 200 billion this year, with the first three quarters marking a return to the top position globally, exceeding initial expectations [2] - The "924 policy" introduced last year signaled a positive shift, as evidenced by the successful fundraising for projects like China Resources Beverage, which attracted significant foreign investment [2] - UBS's role in the placement of BYD, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - The listing of Mixue Ice City is highlighted as a key milestone for the IPO market, setting a record for frozen capital and demonstrating strong institutional demand [3] - CATL's successful listing, with a "0 discount" pricing strategy, reflects the positive sentiment among both domestic and foreign investors [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, particularly in terms of IPO pricing and issuance requirements [4] - The new regulations allow larger companies to issue shares at a more reasonable scale, encouraging high-quality issuers to consider the Hong Kong market [4] Retail Investor Distribution - The new IPO pricing mechanism has established a more predictable allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, stabilizing retail distribution at around 10% [5] - This change aligns with international market practices and enhances the pricing power of institutions, ultimately benefiting all parties involved [5] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from European and Middle Eastern investors [6] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by a need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [8] Future Trends - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in the next 1-2 years is optimistic, characterized by a positive cycle of supply and demand [9] - Key trends include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between quality offerings and capital attraction, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [10]