Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has continued to increase its holdings in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 41.296 billion as of January 13 this year, and a record net inflow of HKD 1,404.844 billion in 2025. This influx has contributed to a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations for continued strength in 2026 due to reasonable market valuations and the absence of bubbles [1][2][4]. Group 1: Catalysts for Hong Kong Stock Market Strength - The first catalyst is the strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which are benefiting from a global focus on technological advancement. Hong Kong, as a core listing ground for Chinese tech companies, stands to gain from the AI industry boom [4][6]. - The second catalyst is the continuation of foreign capital inflow. After years of underweighting Chinese core assets, foreign capital has shifted from outflow to inflow since 2025, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese tech, robotics, and AI sectors, which are globally competitive and offer attractive valuations [2][5]. - The third catalyst is the sustained inflow of southbound capital, which solidifies the foundation for ongoing market performance [6]. Group 2: Support for Earnings Growth in Hong Kong Stocks - The first support factor for earnings growth is the strong potential of tech stocks in Hong Kong, particularly those with robust AI capabilities and high technical barriers [6]. - The second support factor is the bright growth prospects in the new consumption sector, despite some differentiation in the consumer market. The adjustments in the second half of 2025 have mitigated some market risks, allowing fundamentally strong companies to maintain high growth in 2026 [6]. - The third support factor is the high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market, which are expected to provide effective support for stable returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, supported by reasonable valuations and improving corporate earnings [1][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall sentiment for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic yet cautious, with expectations of sustained strength while maintaining a rational view on the pace of growth [1][4]. - Despite a year of previous gains, the market's valuation remains relatively reasonable or even low, alleviating concerns over valuation levels for 2026 [1][4]. Group 2: Earnings Support - Three main factors are identified as supporting the positive earnings outlook for Hong Kong stocks: 1. Technology stocks, particularly those with strong AI capabilities and high technical barriers, are expected to show significant earnings potential [1][4]. 2. The consumer sector, despite showing signs of divergence, has bright growth prospects in the new consumption area, with companies maintaining strong fundamentals likely to continue high growth in 2026 [1][4]. 3. High dividend assets in the Hong Kong market are anticipated to provide effective support for stable returns [1][4]. Group 3: Catalysts for Strength - Three core drivers for the continued strength of the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 are highlighted: 1. A strong cycle driven by technological innovation, with the Hong Kong market poised to benefit from the AI and technology industry development [2][5]. 2. The ongoing trend of foreign capital inflow, as foreign investors increasingly recognize the long-term investment value of core Chinese assets, which is expected to bolster market strength [2][5]. 3. Record net inflows of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market in 2025, providing liquidity support for the market's continuation [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD is expected to positively impact the equity market, with certain sectors likely to benefit from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation on the Market - The RMB has appreciated significantly since April 9, 2025, leading to increased investor interest in its effects on the equity market [1]. - The appreciation of the RMB is believed to improve liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, as it encourages foreign capital inflow [2]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between currency appreciation and stock market performance is complex, influenced by both external monetary policies and internal economic conditions [1][2]. Group 2: Beneficial Sectors - Three asset classes are highlighted for potential investment: industries benefiting from RMB appreciation such as aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1][3]. - Specific sectors recommended for investment include steel, chemicals, aviation, industrial metals, and gas, with a focus on how exchange rate fluctuations impact their fundamentals [3]. - The computer and electronics sectors are noted for their high growth potential, while the power equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing market recovery [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Performance - Despite the RMB's strength, the Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market since Q4 2025 [3]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies when profits are converted back to HKD, but the overall impact on earnings has been limited due to weaker performance in key sectors [3]. - Analysts anticipate a strong "January effect" for the Hong Kong market in early 2026, driven by factors such as nominal GDP recovery and the revaluation of assets due to RMB appreciation [4].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.33%, with notable activity in tech stocks such as Kuaishou increasing over 5% and Alibaba rising over 1% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strength, with China Aluminum rising over 1%, and Baidu Group increasing nearly 1% as the company plans to spin off its Kunlun Chip business for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities believes that the overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, with scarce assets in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Despite several months of continuous increases, the overall valuation remains low, indicating high long-term cost-effectiveness for allocation [1] - CITIC Securities projects that by 2026, the Hong Kong stock market may experience a second round of valuation recovery and further performance revival, benefiting from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external fiscal and monetary easing from major economies [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities anticipates that the first half of 2026 will be favorable for the Hong Kong stock market due to a weak domestic economic recovery, ongoing Federal Reserve easing, and continued industrial catalysts. There is a projected incremental space of HKD 630 billion to HKD 1,050 billion for southbound funds, with passive index funds and insurance capital having relatively larger space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, surpassing 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023 [1] Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to reverse capital flows, including domestic funds waiting to be settled abroad and previously withdrawn foreign funds, potentially leading to a significant capital inflow into Chinese assets [3] - Historical data shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles since 2016, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced gains [3] - The current macro environment is characterized by "domestic fundamentals improving + overseas easing," which may enhance the upward elasticity of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3] Group 2: Industry Configuration Logic - Four key logic points for industry configuration during RMB appreciation include: 1. Lower import costs benefiting upstream resource sectors such as coal, steel, and certain chemicals [4] 2. Decreased foreign currency debt costs benefiting industries with significant USD liabilities, including real estate and logistics [4] 3. Increased domestic purchasing power benefiting consumption-driven sectors like cross-border e-commerce and high-end services [4] 4. Attraction of foreign capital back to Chinese assets, with a shift in foreign investment preferences potentially reinforcing current market trends [4] Group 3: Key Sectors to Watch - Focus on sectors benefiting from changing foreign investment preferences and strong domestic consensus, including AI hardware, advanced manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals [5] - Upstream resource sectors benefiting from rising PPI and reduced import costs, such as steel and chemicals [5] - Service and high-end consumption sectors benefiting from improved domestic purchasing power, including duty-free and e-commerce [5] - Industries with reasonable valuations and potential for marginal improvement in 2024, such as aviation, paper, and logistics [5] Group 4: Industry Performance Metrics - The projected net profit growth rates for various sectors by 2026 and Q3 2025 indicate high growth potential in communication electronics, battery manufacturing, and certain chemical sectors [6] - Specific industries like steel and logistics show varying degrees of recovery potential, with some facing challenges while others are positioned for growth [6]

12月19日，毕盛资产（APS Asset Management）创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉（Wong Kok Hoi）做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办 的「Alpha峰会」，就2025年后的中国经济前景与全球资产配置逻辑发表了深度演讲。 精彩观点： 1、驳斥"中国不可投资"论： 沃伦·巴菲特说得最好："如果袜子便宜，我会买很多袜子；如果股票便宜，我会买很多股票。"给中国贴上"不可投资"标签是一个有缺陷的概念。任何生 意，只要价格合适，都是可以投资的。在我44年的职业投资生涯中，从未听过任何股市被如此描述。 2、中国股市或已进入"多年牛市"： 到2030年，得益于庞大人口规模、货币升值以及巨大的科技产出，中国的GDP极有可能超过美国。因此，即使我一半的预测正确，中国股市也有可能已经 进入一个多年的牛市。 3、驳斥"日本化"： 中国不会重演日本的通缩危机。与当年的日本相比，中国拥有年均1万亿美元的贸易顺差，股市市盈率仅为15倍（日本当年为75倍），且主要银行体系依 然健康。 4、中国"MIT"优势之制造业（M）： 中国已经生产了全球34%的制成品。这不仅仅关乎工厂，还包括港口、高铁、电厂等完整 ...

精彩观点： 王国辉是亚洲最负盛名的基金经理之一，拥有超过44年的全球投资经验。他于1995年创立的毕盛资产，是亚洲最早且业绩卓越的对冲基金管理公 司之一。王国辉以其逆向思维和基本面研究著称，曾多次在市场极度悲观时准确捕捉到中国资产的底部机会。 在本次峰会上，王国辉面对全球市场对中国的种种误解，用详实的数据和亲历的视角，从"MIT"（制造业、创新、人才）三个维度重构了中国经 济的增长逻辑，并直言给中国贴上"不可投资"标签的人，要么别有用心，要么根本不懂投资。 以下是华尔街见闻整理的精华内容： 12月19日，毕盛资产（APS Asset Management）创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉（Wong Kok Hoi）做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院 联合主办的「Alpha峰会」，就2025年后的中国经济前景与全球资产配置逻辑发表了深度演讲。 首先，感谢主办方邀请我分享关于中国股市未来的看法。 古人云："知者不言，言者不知。"我虽然属于后者，但作为一名在亚洲市场深耕四十多年的基金经理，我想基于我的观察，谈谈为什么我认为中 国资产正处于一个关键的历史转折点。 "不可投资"论纯属谬误 近年来，我们在国际舆论场上看 ...

精彩观点： 12月19日，毕盛资产（APS Asset Management）创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉（Wong Kok Hoi）做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院 联合主办的「Alpha峰会」，就2025年后的中国经济前景与全球资产配置逻辑发表了深度演讲。 王国辉是亚洲最负盛名的基金经理之一，拥有超过44年的全球投资经验。他于1995年创立的毕盛资产，是亚洲最早且业绩卓越的对冲基金管理公 司之一。王国辉以其逆向思维和基本面研究著称，曾多次在市场极度悲观时准确捕捉到中国资产的底部机会。 在本次峰会上，王国辉面对全球市场对中国的种种误解，用详实的数据和亲历的视角，从"MIT"（制造业、创新、人才）三个维度重构了中国经 济的增长逻辑，并直言给中国贴上"不可投资"标签的人，要么别有用心，要么根本不懂投资。 以下是华尔街见闻整理的精华内容： 首先，感谢主办方邀请我分享关于中国股市未来的看法。 古人云："知者不言，言者不知。"我虽然属于后者，但作为一名在亚洲市场深耕四十多年的基金经理，我想基于我的观察，谈谈为什么我认为中 国资产正处于一个关键的历史转折点。 "不可投资"论纯属谬误 近年来，我们在国际舆论场上看 ...

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a downward trend in December [1] - The market's liquidity is significantly influenced by the overseas environment, while its fundamentals are closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages and improved asset quality, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, with projections indicating a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026 [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - A notable feature of the Hong Kong market in 2025 is the record inflow of southbound capital, with a net buying amount reaching 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - Southbound capital has provided substantial liquidity to the Hong Kong market, enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors, with the total market value of southbound holdings exceeding 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market capitalization [2] - The inflow of southbound capital is linked to a loose monetary policy environment, with a significant increase in trading volume, which reached a historical high of 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, a 94.5% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future projections for southbound capital inflows suggest an increase of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, with potential inflows from individual investors estimated between 2.5 billion HKD to 5 billion HKD over the next year [3] - The ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, driven by declining yields on financial products, is expected to continue, with significant room for retail investors to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, although this is lower than the 265.51 billion HKD recorded in 2024 [4] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December, indicating a strong upward trend [4][5] Group 5: External Capital Flows - In 2025, external capital flows into the Hong Kong market have turned positive, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported, and foreign cornerstone investors actively participating in IPOs [6] - The potential for further foreign capital inflows is contingent on domestic fundamentals and the RMB exchange rate, with expectations for a slight decrease in inflow scale compared to 2025 but still strong relative to southbound capital [6] Group 6: Market Recovery Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from a series of reforms and external economic policies, with projections for a rebound in 2026 driven by improved corporate earnings and continued inflows of southbound and foreign capital [7][8] - Key investment directions include technology sectors, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a significant adjustment in December [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is significantly influenced by overseas liquidity and closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance than fundamentals [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages, improved asset quality, and market ecosystem restructuring, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market [1] - Several brokerage firms predict that the Hong Kong market will experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026, as fundamentals are expected to bottom out [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has been a key driver of the Hong Kong market's strong performance in 2025, with net inflows reaching a record 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The cumulative net inflow through the Stock Connect has reached 5.09 trillion HKD, nearing the 5.10 trillion HKD mark, providing substantial liquidity to the market and enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors [3] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market exceeded 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a historical high and a 94.5% increase year-on-year [4] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future inflows of southbound capital are expected to continue, with estimates suggesting an additional 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital in 2026 [4] - If the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in new funds increases from 30.8% to 35%, there could be an additional inflow of 1 to 1.5 billion HKD [4] - Individual investors are projected to contribute significantly to the inflow, with potential purchases of 2.5 billion to 5 billion HKD in the coming year [5] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, despite a decline from 2024 [8] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December [8][10] - Major companies like Xiaomi and Tencent have contributed to the rising buyback trend, enhancing earnings per share and market confidence [9][10] Group 5: Foreign Capital Inflows - In 2025, foreign capital has stopped flowing out of the Hong Kong market, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported [12] - The demand for foreign capital in Chinese assets remains optimistic, driven by expectations of a stable or appreciating RMB and positive domestic fundamentals [12] - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to be slightly lower in 2026 compared to 2025, but remains strong compared to southbound capital inflows [12] Group 6: Outlook for 2026 - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from internal catalysts and external monetary easing policies, particularly from the US and Japan [14] - The market is expected to see a rebound in corporate earnings and continued inflows from southbound and foreign capital, driven by a "money-making effect" [15] - Key investment directions for 2026 include technology sectors, healthcare, resources benefiting from inflation, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [14][15]