Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector continues to experience a downward trend, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies, amidst concerns regarding the industry's polysilicon storage plans and a drop in new installations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Fuyao Glass (03606) decreased by 4.89%, trading at HKD 68.1 [1] - Xinte Energy (01799) fell by 4.64%, trading at HKD 7.81 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) dropped by 3.8%, trading at HKD 3.54 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865) declined by 2.77%, trading at HKD 11.23 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Recent rumors about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform have been confirmed as false by industry authorities [1] - The photovoltaic association clarified that the "three-day meeting" rumor was related to a monthly meeting [1] Group 3: Installation Trends - After the "531 rush" earlier this year, the monthly new installation capacity in China has declined for three consecutive months [1] - In August, the new installation capacity was 7.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 55.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that the profitability of photovoltaic companies will largely depend on the pace of capacity clearance and the market-driven pricing of grid-connected electricity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on "anti-involution" measures to promote high-quality development and regulate competition, with new capacity control policies expected to be introduced [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has held multiple meetings to discuss the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry and to gather feedback from companies and associations [1][2] - A new document regarding capacity control is anticipated, which may include restrictions on existing capacity utilization rates and a ban on new capacity to achieve supply-demand balance [2][3] - The photovoltaic industry has been suffering from low-price competition, leading to widespread losses among companies as of mid-2023 [2][3] Group 2: Energy Consumption Standards - New mandatory national standards for energy consumption in the silicon and germanium sectors are under discussion, with stricter limits proposed compared to previous expectations [2][3] - The average energy consumption in the silicon material and silicon wafer sectors currently exceeds the proposed third-level energy consumption standards, which could lead to supply-side adjustments if implemented [3] Group 3: Company Responses - Companies like Canadian Solar (Artes) and Tongwei Co. have expressed support for the "anti-involution" initiative, believing it will help the industry escape vicious competition and achieve long-term high-quality development [4][5] - Canadian Solar has adjusted its shipment expectations for 2025 to align with the "anti-involution" strategy, reducing its projected module shipments to 25-27 GW [3][4] Group 4: Storage and Supply Chain Issues - There are rumors about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform, but industry insiders have indicated that these claims are unfounded, highlighting the significant financial and logistical challenges involved [5][6] - The potential scale for polysilicon storage is estimated at around 1 million tons, requiring approximately 100 billion yuan in funding, which poses substantial obstacles to implementation [6] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has seen a decline in monthly new installations following a surge earlier in the year, with August's new installations dropping to 7.36 GW, a 55.29% year-on-year decrease [8][9] - Companies are cautious about future demand, with expectations of stable global photovoltaic market demand but a notable decrease in domestic installations anticipated for the second half of the year [9][10] - The industry is experiencing upward price adjustments in the component sector, but the overall market remains under pressure due to demand uncertainties and cost increases in upstream materials [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently focused on the progress of the polysilicon storage plan, with rumors circulating about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform, which has been confirmed to be untrue by industry insiders [1] Group 1 - The polysilicon storage platform is rumored to have been established, with the company "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd." registered and a joint account opened [1] - Industry insiders have clarified that the rumors regarding the polysilicon storage platform are not accurate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification regarding recent rumors about the photovoltaic industry, particularly concerning the polysilicon sector, stating that the information circulating is significantly inaccurate and urging the public not to believe or spread rumors [1][2]. Industry Summary - The clarification from the association does not specify the details of the misinformation but is believed to relate to market rumors about the "big collecting small" storage activities in the polysilicon industry [2]. - The polysilicon production capacity involved in these rumors includes companies such as Xinyi, Nanfang, Baofeng, Runyang, and Hoshine Silicon Industry [2]. - Industry insiders suggest that the progress of polysilicon storage depends on negotiation outcomes and emphasize the importance of destocking, indicating that companies with excess inventory should halt production to manage stock levels effectively [2]. - There is a prevailing sentiment among industry participants that the current market is flooded with rumors, making it challenging to discern the truth, and the market remains highly sensitive to related information [2].

Core Viewpoint - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification regarding recent rumors about the photovoltaic industry, particularly concerning the polysilicon sector, stating that the information circulating is significantly inaccurate and urging the public not to believe or spread rumors [1][2]. Industry Summary - The clarification from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association does not specify the details of the misinformation but is believed to relate to market rumors about the "big collecting small" storage activities in the polysilicon industry [2]. - The polysilicon production capacity involved in the rumored acquisitions includes companies such as Xinyi, Nanfang, Baofeng, Runyang, and Hoshine Silicon Industry [2]. - Industry insiders suggest that the progress of polysilicon storage depends on negotiation outcomes and emphasize the need for companies with inventory to reduce stock levels through production halts; otherwise, even if the "big collecting small" strategy is implemented, it will not effectively allocate future operational loads [2]. - There is a general sentiment among industry participants that the current market is flooded with rumors, making it difficult to discern the truth, and the market remains highly sensitive to related information [2].

Core Viewpoint - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification regarding recent rumors about the photovoltaic industry, particularly concerning the multi-crystalline silicon sector, stating that the information circulating is significantly inaccurate and urging the public not to believe or spread these rumors [1][2]. Group 1 - The clarification from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association does not specify the details of the rumors but is believed to relate to market speculation about the "big collecting small" storage activities in the multi-crystalline silicon industry [2]. - The acquisition of multi-crystalline silicon production capacity involves several companies, including Xinyi, Nanfang, Baofeng, Runyang, and Hoshine Silicon Industry [2]. - Industry insiders suggest that the progress of multi-crystalline silicon storage depends on negotiation outcomes and emphasize the need for companies with inventory to reduce stock levels to manage future production loads effectively [2].

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 据证券时报，从业内多方获悉，光伏行业协会本次澄清内容或与市场传闻的多晶硅行业以大收小的收储 事项有关，据了解，被收购的多晶硅产能涉及信义、南玻、宝丰、润阳、合盛硅业等多家企业。谈及该 事项时，业内人士认为，多晶硅收储的进展还是取决于谈判情况，"此外，关键还是要去库存，有库存 的公司应该停产去库存，不然，即使完成多晶硅环节的以大收小，也没法分配接下来的开工负荷。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bearish [1] - Medium - term: Sideways [1] - Long - term: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, industrial silicon prices dropped significantly. The main contract 2507 fell by 16.6%. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest region and the复产 plans of some Xinjiang manufacturers, supply pressure increased. Meanwhile, downstream demand was weak, and tariff issues were uncertain, leading to continuous price drops and a record low of 7130 points [1]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon remain weak. Supply is expected to increase, downstream demand is generally stable or weak, and high inventory pressure suppresses prices. The key points in June are whether price drops can trigger large - scale production cuts and whether southwest region's复产 will be postponed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the industrial silicon market declined. Organic silicon manufacturers continued to cut production, polysilicon was affected by the under - expected 430 installation rush, and Trump's tariff policy was uncertain. The price hit a new low of 7130 yuan/ton. Spot prices also decreased: non - oxygen - blown 553 was at 8350 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from last month; oxygen - blown 553 was at 8500 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton; 421 was at 10600 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 Cost - profit - In May, the national cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly. Electricity prices in the southwest region dropped, and the prices of silica, silicon coal, and electrodes also declined. The average loss of industrial silicon producers increased compared to last month. As of the latest data, the average profit of 553 nationwide was about - 2001 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - In May, the national industrial silicon output was 290,000 tons, about 10,000 tons less than in April, mainly due to production cuts in the northwest region. Xinjiang's output decreased by nearly 10,000 tons. The output in the southwest region remained stable. With the approaching wet season, there are expectations of复产 in the southwest and some northwest manufacturers also have复产 plans. The focus in June is on the scale of southwest region's复产 and Xinjiang's复产 intensity [18]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon - In May, polysilicon prices slightly declined. After the 430 and 531 installation rushes ended, downstream component and battery prices dropped, forcing polysilicon prices down. Polysilicon enterprises are producing according to quotas. With the weakening domestic installation expectations in the second half of the year, downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are expected to cut production and purchase polysilicon as needed. There was a rumor of stockpiling, but its feasibility needs to be discussed. The inventory of polysilicon is close to 260,000 tons, and the destocking pressure is high. The focus in June is on polysilicon output and downstream silicon wafer procurement [23]. 3.2.4 Organic Silicon - In May, organic silicon prices stabilized. The DMC price was 11,500 yuan/ton, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The joint production cuts by organic silicon enterprises have shown initial results, but the over - capacity situation has not improved. Monomer plants and industrial chain enterprises are still in losses, and downstream real estate demand has not improved significantly. In April, the DMC output was 168,500 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. Although real estate policies are being promoted, it will take time to have a substantial impact on organic silicon demand, and currently, the demand for industrial silicon is weakening [27]. 3.2.5 Silicon Aluminum Alloy - In May, the prices of silicon aluminum alloy continued to decline, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Terminal demand was average. Since the overall silicon consumption is small, it has little impact on the demand for industrial silicon, and the demand remains stable [32]. 3.2.6 Import and Export - Industrial silicon exports increased slightly. In April 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 60,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase but a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. Affected by the US trade war, exports are expected to decline slightly, and overseas demand is weak [46]. 3.2.7 Inventory - In May, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly compared to April. As of the latest data, the total social inventory was about 589,000 tons. Although there was some destocking at the end of May, the inventory is still at a high level. With the production cuts in the two major downstream sectors, it is difficult to achieve significant destocking [48].