| | | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/22 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.148 | 4.523 | 3.611 | 2.894 | 3.584 | 3.325 | 0.307 | 3.466 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.016 | 6.179 | 1.826 | - | 4.748 | 4.400 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.484 | 3.746 | 2.153 | 1.087 | 2.2 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - Latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.146, UK 4.518, France 3.547, Germany 2.844, Italy 3.542, Spain 3.280, Switzerland 0.277, Greece 3.422, Japan 1.952, Brazil 6.168, China 1.844, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.727, New Zealand 4.452 [1] - Latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.488, UK 3.759, Germany 2.132, Japan 1.059, Italy 2.248, China (1Y yield) 1.380, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.019 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.468, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 16.759, South Korean won 1473.200, Thai baht 31.522, Malaysian ringgit 4.086 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the Chinese yuan: on - shore 7.043, off - shore 7.036, mid - price 7.060, 12 - month NDF 6.909 [1] - Latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6800.260, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48114.260, Nasdaq 23111.460, Mexican index 63230.870, UK index 9684.790, French CAC 8106.160, German DAX 24076.870, Spanish index 16921.900, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 49383.290, Hang Seng Index 25235.410, Shanghai Composite Index 3824.812, Taiwan index 27536.660, South Korean index 3999.130, Indian index 8686.469, Thai index 1260.680, Malaysian index 1648.310, Australian index 8880.633, emerging - economy index 1352.660 [1] - Latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade 3533.650, euro - zone investment - grade 265.441, emerging - economy investment - grade 290.080, US high - yield 2898.000, euro - zone high - yield 409.250, emerging - economy high - yield 1817.098 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3824.81, down 1.11%; CSI 300 closing price 4497.55, down 1.20%; SSE 50 closing price 2954.79, down 1.08%; ChiNext closing price 3071.76, down 2.10%; CSI 500 closing price 7001.32, down 1.58% [2] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 13.77 (down 0.12), SSE 50 11.52 (down 0.09), CSI 500 31.86 (down 0.49), S&P 500 27.16 (down 0.09), German DAX 18.65 (down 0.12) [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.46 (up 0.04), German DAX 2.52 (up 0.04) [2] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1087.65, 5 - day average - 674.95; main board latest value - 777.32, 5 - day average - 496.24; small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available); ChiNext latest value - 214.64, 5 - day average - 136.24; CSI 300 latest value - 147.68, 5 - day average - 96.94 [2] Group 3: Transaction Data and Other Market Information - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 17241.73, down 492.66; CSI 300 latest value 3905.00, down 338.83; SSE 50 latest value 1033.24, down 78.10; small - cap board latest value 3381.18, down 25.44; ChiNext latest value 4461.76, down 206.17 [3] - Main contract basis and basis ratio: IF basis 1.85, basis ratio 0.04%; IH basis - 3.39, basis ratio - 0.11%; IC basis 8.88, basis ratio 0.13% [3] - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 107.91, up 0.03%; TF2303 105.80, up 0.01%; T2306 107.92, up 0.02%; TF2306 105.80, up 0.01% [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.3448%, down 17.00 BP; R007 1.5003%, down 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5950%, up 1.00 BP [3]

| | | | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.174 | 4.495 | 3.564 | 2.852 | 3.571 | 3.299 | 0.271 | 3.447 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.952 | 6.150 | 1.854 | - | 4.726 | 4.494 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.503 | 3.746 | 2.149 | 1.062 ...

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/15 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.185 | 4.516 | 3.576 | 2.856 | 3.547 | 3.305 | 0.298 | 3.456 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.946 | 6.219 | 1.837 | 3.413 | 4.728 | 4.515 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.523 | 3.742 | 2.152 | 1.061 | 2.274 | 1.391 | 2.9 ...

国内方面，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议明确来年的经济结构方向，内需重 点在释放服务消费活力、持续推升全要素生产率、随着新旧动能切换适度推进 化解地产与地方债务风险。 海外方面，美联储 12 月 FOMC 虽兑现降息，但市场预期 Q1 降息暂停、技术 性扩表期限与规模也极为有限。19日日本央行行动成为短期关键。除日本外， 交易员也开始押注欧洲央行加息，若未来 1 个月美国与非美货币政策反差加 大，亦将加剧海外资产波动。 还需一点催化剂 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 资产方面，12 月 19 日日本央行大概率落地加息，基于流动性扩张及美元贬值 推动的国内外权益行情仍需等待，预计 2026 年 1 月中下旬美股或重拾升势。 国内资产端短期或可逐步看好红利，1 月中下旬可重新布局恒科，随后转向国 内科技、港股创新药。近期离岸人民币升值与美联储降息、季节性结汇以及中 美贸易缓和等因素有关，结汇激增能否触发港股乃至 A 股转强仍需观察整体宏 观形势。去年 9 月、今年 2 月的脉冲行情过后，恒科均出现了 4 个月的休整 期，今年 9 月休整后，亦有望 ...

| | | --- | | 乖 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3873.32 | 4552.18 | 2977.03 | 3163.67 | 7082.89 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.70 | -0.86 | -0.39 | -1.41 | -1.02 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.88 | 11.75 | 32.27 | 27.47 | 18.82 | | 环比变化 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 0.13 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.52 | 2.47 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | -0 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.165%, UK 4.527%, France 3.582%, Germany 2.861%, Italy 3.561%, Spain 3.332%, Switzerland 0.230%, Greece 3.464%, Japan 1.968%, Brazil 6.220%, China 1.833%, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.705%, New Zealand 4.437% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.576%, UK 3.806%, Germany 2.156%, Japan 1.059%, Italy 2.297%, China (1Y yield) 1.401%, South Korea (not available), Australia 3.971% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.432, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 17.042, Korean won 1469.400, Thai baht 31.850, Malaysian ringgit 4.113. The on - shore RMB is 7.072, the off - shore RMB is 7.072, the RMB central parity is 7.076, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.936 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6846.510, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47739.320, Nasdaq 23545.900, Mexican stock index 63528.000, UK stock index 9645.090, France CAC 8108.430, Germany DAX 24046.010, Spanish stock index 16712.200, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 50581.940, Hang Seng Index 25765.360, Shanghai Composite Index 3924.078, Taiwan stock index 28303.780, South Korean stock index 4154.850, Indian stock index 8710.695, Thai stock index 1261.390, Malaysian stock index 1612.780, Australian economy index 8914.962, emerging - economy stock index 1386.620 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.090, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.008, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.370, US high - yield credit - bond index 2898.070, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.350, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1803.856 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - share index performance, the closing prices are: A - shares 3924.08, CSI 300 4621.75, SSE 50 3019.36, ChiNext 3190.27, CSI 500 7172.37. The percentage changes are: A - shares 0.54%, CSI 300 0.81%, SSE 50 0.58%, ChiNext 2.60%, CSI 500 1.05% [4] - In terms of valuation, the PE(TTM) values are: CSI 300 14.08, SSE 50 11.89, CSI 500 32.67, S&P 500 27.21, Germany DAX 18.63. The环比 changes are: CSI 300 0.06, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 0.32, S&P 500 - 0.12, Germany DAX 0.02 [4] - Regarding risk premium, 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values are: S&P 500 - 0.49, Germany DAX 2.51. The环比 changes are: S&P 500 - 0.01, Germany DAX - 0.07 [4] - For fund flows, the latest values are: A - shares - 31.13, main board - 259.96, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext 139.88, CSI 300 33.95. The 5 - day average values are: A - shares - 360.23, main board - 326.76, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext - 38.69, CSI 300 - 4.65 [4] - The latest trading volumes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 20366.46, CSI 300 4967.16, SSE 50 1252.39, small - and - medium - sized board 3786.43, ChiNext 5818.21. The环比 changes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 3108.75, CSI 300 845.69, SSE 50 147.92, small - and - medium - sized board 516.77, ChiNext 1100.81 [5] - The主力升贴水 data shows: IF basis - 8.55, amplitude - 0.19%; IH basis - 4.36, amplitude - 0.14%; IC basis - 28.37, amplitude - 0.40% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of treasury bond futures are: T2303 108.11, TF2303 105.73, T2306 107.91, TF2306 105.75. The percentage changes are: T2303 0.05%, TF2303 0.01%, T2306 0.04%, TF2306 - 0.01% [5] - The money market shows: R001 1.3718%, R007 1.4940%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800%. The daily changes (BP) are: R001 - 13.00, R007 - 1.00, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest value of the 1-year yield of China's 2-year treasury bond is 1.406 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies are: 5.312 against the Brazilian real, 16.996 against the South African rand, 1473.500 against the South Korean won, 32.040 against the Thai baht, and 4.113 against the Malaysian ringgit [2] - The latest values of the onshore RMB, offshore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12-month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.073, and 6.935 respectively [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 at 6857.120, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47850.940, NASDAQ at 23505.140, etc [2] - The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment-grade credit bond index at 3540.480, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index at 266.108, etc [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A-shares, the closing price is 3875.79 with a -0.06% change; for the CSI 300, it's 4546.57 with a 0.34% change; for the SSE 50, it's 2974.34 with a 0.38% change; for the ChiNext, it's 3067.48 with a 1.01% change; for the CSI 500, it's 7012.81 with a 0.24% change [3] - The PE(TTM) values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.96, 11.82, 31.94, 27.28, and 18.52 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.02, 0.02, 0.06, 0.04, and 0.15 [3] - The latest capital flow values for A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the ChiNext, and the CSI 300 are -442.10, -426.62, -, -67.51, and 72.52 respectively, and the 5-day average values are -509.13, -353.73, -, -119.52, and -30.13 [3] - The latest trading volume values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium-sized board, and ChiNext are 15489.60, 3487.67, 886.22, 3137.25, and 4117.28 respectively, with环比 changes of -1210.02, -257.19, 31.27, -174.24, and -545.69 [4] - The basis and basis spread for IF, IH, and IC are -15.97 (-0.35%), -6.14 (-0.21%), and -29.61 (-0.42%) respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 treasury bond futures are 108.00, 105.62, 107.67, and 105.60 respectively, with changes of -0.22%, -0.14%, -0.34%, and -0.24% [4] - The current capital interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M are 1.3611%, 1.4852%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of -12.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [4]

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3878.00 | 4531.05 | 2963.08 | 3036.79 | 6996.36 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.51 | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.12 | -0.62 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.94 | 11.80 | 31.88 | 27.19 | 18.37 | | 环比变化 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.02 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.39 | 2.70 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新值 | -112 ...

| 乖 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/03 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3897.71 | 4554.33 | 2978.47 | 3071.15 | 7040.30 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.51 | -0.69 | -0.87 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.05 | 11.90 | 32.32 | 27.14 | 18.39 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.40 | 2.69 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | -0.01 ...