证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月22日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第二期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 展望后市，随着美国后续公布的经济数据逐渐摆脱停摆影响，市场将对当前的经济现实与未来的 降息路径进行再定价，市场在未来两周的波动率有望回升，需要对未来市场的波动加剧提高警惕。 过去两周的全球市场主要受美日央行货币政策的影响，国内市场主要受政策面与经济数据的影响。 12月FOMC降息25bp，并推出RMP工具缓和流动性，美元走势偏弱； 日央行加息落地，未明确后续加息节奏，日元弱势； 国内在政策面与基本面的交织影响下，市场无风险利率显著下行。 整体来看，过去两周全球市场表现一般，美元偏弱带来非美货币涨多跌少。 股市：偏弱行情下，创业板指与道指韧性强；A股国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息落地，明年降息预期稳定；中债国债利率普遍回落，信用利 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, with a focus on the relative performance of different styles such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800[1][2][7] - The report highlights the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, noting that the current PE_TTM of A-shares is at a historically high percentile, with marginal increases over the past week[41][42][46] - The report discusses the relative crowding and cost-effectiveness of different styles, with growth vs. dividend and micro-cap vs. CSI 800 being at historically high levels, while small-cap vs. large-cap is at a historically balanced level[72][75][78] - The report examines the impact of US Treasury yields on the performance of different styles, noting that the recent rise in US Treasury yields has led to growth outperforming dividends and large-cap underperforming small-cap, which is consistent with long-term trends[83][85][86] - The report tracks the performance of major funds, noting that most major fund indices have outperformed the Wind All A index over the past week, with the social security heavy index and the national team index leading the gains[89][93][95] - The report provides an overview of the bond market, noting that both Chinese and US Treasury yields have risen over the past week, with the China-US spread at a historically high level[112][113][114] - The report tracks the performance of the commodity market, noting that both Chinese and US commodity markets have risen over the past week, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index and the CRB Metals Index leading the gains[123][124][125]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - No core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.084, UK 4.433, France 3.444, Germany 2.649, Italy 3.411, Spain 3.166, Switzerland 0.094, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.680, Brazil 6.167, China 1.802, South Korea 3.198, Australia 4.366, New Zealand 4.132 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 2 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are: US 3.556, UK 3.781, Germany 1.985, Japan 0.934, Italy 2.174, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.763, Australia 3.599 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Emerging - Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: Exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - economy currencies include: Brazil 5.352, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 17.377, Korean won 1449.800, Thai baht 32.365, Malaysian ringgit 4.183 [3]. - **Renminbi Data**: In - shore RMB 7.119, off - shore RMB 7.121, RMB central parity rate 7.087, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.972 [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6720.320, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46912.300, NASDAQ 23053.990, Mexican index 63093.120, UK index 9735.780, French CAC 7964.770, German DAX 23734.020, Spanish index 16118.000, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 50883.680, Hang Seng Index 26485.900, Shanghai Composite Index 4007.760, Taiwan index 27899.450, South Korean index 4026.450, Indian index 8337.058, Thai index 1313.310, Malaysian index 1618.940, Australian index 9098.572, emerging - economy index 1393.770 [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data for credit bond indices are not provided [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes for A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are: A - shares closing price 4007.76, up 0.97%; CSI 300 closing price 4693.40, up 1.43%; SSE 50 closing price 3044.74, up 1.22%; ChiNext closing price 3224.62, up 1.84%; CSI 500 closing price 7345.72, up 1.61% [4]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and环比变化 for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 are: CSI 300 PE (TTM) 14.33,环比变化 0.15; SSE 50 PE (TTM) 11.98,环比变化 0.10; CSI 500 PE (TTM) 33.46,环比变化 0.51 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: No data provided [4]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are: A - shares latest value 51.44, 5 - day average - 338.66; main board latest value - 36.32, 5 - day average - 267.02; SME board (not provided); ChiNext latest value 4.39, 5 - day average - 42.24; CSI 300 latest value 271.42, 5 - day average - 50.36 [4]. - **Transaction Amount and Changes**: Latest values and环比 changes of transaction amounts for Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 20552.48,环比 change 1829.07; CSI 300 latest value 5536.42,环比 change 852.81; SSE 50 latest value 1439.34,环比 change 264.86; SME board latest value 4036.04,环比 change 300.22; ChiNext latest value 5011.71,环比 change 275.40 [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage changes for IF, IH, and IC are: IF basis - 22.60, - 0.48%; IH basis - 3.34, - 0.11%; IC basis - 99.32, - 1.35% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices and percentage changes for T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: T2303 closing price 108.54, down 0.08%; TF2303 closing price 105.97, down 0.04%; T2306 closing price 108.27, down 0.10%; TF2306 closing price 105.94, down 0.05% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates and daily changes for R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are: R001 1.3621%, daily change - 10.00 BP; R007 1.4635%, daily change 0.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5875%, daily change 0.00 BP [5].

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: The yields and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of 10 - year treasury bonds in various economies like the US, UK, France, etc. were presented. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 4.151, with a latest change of 0.011, a weekly change of 0.044, a monthly change of - 0.111, and a yearly change of 0.421 [2]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, the yields and changes of 2 - year treasury bonds in economies such as the US, UK, Germany were provided. For instance, the US 2 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 3.630, with a latest change of - 0.010, a weekly change of 0.060, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of 0.080 [2]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates and Changes: The exchange rates and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were shown. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/09/30 was 5.322 with a latest change of - 0.01% [2]. Major Economies' Stock Indices - Indices and Changes: The values and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of major economies' stock indices including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were given. For example, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/09/30 was 6688.460, with a latest change of 0.41%, a weekly change of 0.47%, a monthly change of 4.25%, and a yearly change of 16.67% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Indices and Changes: The changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index were presented. For example, the latest change of the US investment - grade credit bond index was - 0.06% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were reported. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3882.78 with a 0.52% increase [3]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios and their环比 changes of indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50 were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.22 with a环比 change of 0.03 [3]. Risk Premium - Calculation and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX were shown. For example, the risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.03 [3]. Fund Flows - Values and Averages: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were given. For example, the latest fund flow value of A - shares was - 288.47, and the 5 - day average was - 46.80 [3]. Trading Volume - Values and Changes: The latest trading volume values and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21814.11 with a环比 change of 199.50 [3]. Basis and Spread - Basis and Magnitude: The basis and magnitude of the main index futures contracts like IF, IH, IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 22.69 with a magnitude of - 0.49% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures T00, TF00, etc. were reported. All had a 0.00% change [4]. Funding Rates - Rates and Daily Changes: The funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (in BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.5331% with a daily change of - 34.00 BP [4].

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Daily Report on Major Asset Classes [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 4.140%, UK 4.700%, France 3.531%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US -0.036, UK -0.045, France -0.037, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US -0.008, UK -0.012, France -0.028, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US -0.090, UK -0.050, France -0.005, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.389, UK 0.778, France 0.594, etc [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 3.640%, UK 3.983%, Germany 2.020%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US 0.070, UK -0.026, Germany -0.007, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US 0.070, UK 0.008, Germany 0.006, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US 0.120, UK 0.023, Germany 0.069, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.050, UK 0.071, Germany -0.126, etc [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - Rates on September 29, 2025: Brazil 5.322, South Africa ZAR 17.273, South Korean Won 1400.400, etc [3] - Latest Changes: Brazil -0.40%, South Africa ZAR -0.37%, South Korean Won -0.72%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: Brazil -0.24%, South Africa ZAR -0.31%, South Korean Won 0.66%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Brazil -2.15%, South Africa ZAR -1.96%, South Korean Won 0.50%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: Brazil -3.88%, South Africa ZAR -0.45%, South Korean Won 4.88%, etc [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Values on September 29, 2025: S&P 500 6661.210, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46316.070, NASDAQ 22591.150, etc [3] - Latest Changes: S&P 500 0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.15%, NASDAQ 0.48%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.14%, NASDAQ -0.87%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Mexico Index 6.36%, UK Index 1.13%, France CAC 2.24%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: S&P 500 16.48%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.95%, NASDAQ 25.69%, etc [3] Credit Bond Indices - Values on September 29, 2025: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3517.910, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 265.036, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.34%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.13%, etc [4] - One-Week Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.09%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.08%, etc [4] - One-Month Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 1.56%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.51%, etc [4] - One-Year Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.50%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.93%, etc [4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A-share 3862.53, CSI 300 4620.05, SSE 50 2973.04, etc [5] - Price Changes (%): A-share 0.90%, CSI 300 1.54%, SSE 50 1.09%, etc [5] Valuation - PE(TTM): CSI 300 14.19, SSE 50 11.73, CSI 500 34.92, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: CSI 300 0.15, SSE 50 0.05, CSI 500 0.47, etc [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-Year Interest Rate: S&P 500 -0.53, Germany DAX 2.40 [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: S&P 500 0.03, Germany DAX 0.04 [5] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A-share 836.51, Main Board 463.46, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] - Average Values in the Past 5 Days: A-share -302.46, Main Board -264.41, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] Trading Volume - Latest Values: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 21614.61, CSI 300 6933.95, SSE 50 1899.69, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 145.76, CSI 300 946.71, SSE 50 397.81, etc [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis: IF -15.45, IH 2.96, IC -118.36 [5] - Premium or Discount Ratios: IF -0.33%, IH 0.10%, IC -1.61% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 107.660, TF00 105.485, T01 107.325, TF01 105.360 [6] Price Changes (%) - T00 0.00%, TF00 0.00%, T01 0.00%, TF01 0.00% [6] Money Market - Capital Interest Rates: R001 1.3776%, R007 1.8694%, SHIBOR-3M 1.5800% [6] - Daily Changes (BP): R001 -17.00, R007 32.00, SHIBOR-3M 0.00 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of 2025, mainly due to the rise of the equity market and commodities, as well as institutional behavior adjustments. However, in the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to recover, supported by the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies and the relatively friendly monetary environment [2][37][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Sharp Decline of Bond Futures in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the Treasury bond futures market was extremely volatile, with five distinct stages. From July onwards, all maturities of Treasury bond futures declined from their highs, and there was no obvious sign of stabilization in the short term. For example, the TL main contract dropped by more than 6% [3]. 3.2. Correction of Premature Pricing 3.2.1. Dominance of the Game between Institutions and the Central Bank - In the first half of the year, the market continued the bullish trend since November 2024. After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the market anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields. However, the Central Bank took measures to cool down the market, including strict supervision, tightening of the capital market, and policy implementation, which weakened the bullish sentiment [11][12]. 3.2.2. Asset Rotation and Increased Risk Appetite - **Commodity Market**: In July, the anti - involution policy promoted the rise of certain commodities such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coking coal, and coke. The policy was later adjusted, and the enthusiasm in the commodity market subsided [20][24]. - **Equity Market**: Driven by factors such as technological innovation narratives and policy reforms, the domestic stock market had a strong bullish trend from July to September. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all had significant increases, attracting funds from the bond market [28]. - **Institutional Behavior**: The revision of the regulations on public - offering fund sales fees and the possible cancellation of tax exemptions for public - offering fund dividends affected institutional behavior. Although there was some short - term panic selling, the long - term impact on the market structure was limited [34]. 3.3. Expected Recovery of the Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - **Insufficient Attractiveness of Bond Yields**: In the past two years, the decline in bond yields was supported by the fundamental situation and the asset shortage environment. However, this year, the emergence of the equity market and the commodity market's bullish trends has led to a diversion of funds from the bond market [37]. - **Fundamentals as the Anchor**: The main negative factor for the bond market is the diversion of funds to risk assets. Although the short - term impact of asset linkage on the bond market is magnified, the market deviation will eventually be corrected. The monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial to the bond market [40]. - **Synergistic Efforts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will cooperate more closely to improve the effectiveness of macro - policies. Considering the current economic situation, the fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the bond market is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [46][47].

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on major asset markets released by the macro team of the research center on September 3, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 2, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.262%, 4.799%, 3.582% respectively [2] - The latest changes ranged from 0.020% (Switzerland) to 0.067% (Italy), with weekly changes from - 0.055% (Brazil) to 0.120% (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.085% (Japan) to 0.298% (France), and annual changes from - 0.276% (Japan) to 0.888% (UK) [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 2, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.590%, 3.977%, 1.971% respectively [2] - The latest changes ranged from - 0.030% (US) to 0.037% (Italy), with weekly changes from - 0.090% (US) to 0.063% (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.160% (US) to 0.157% (UK), and annual changes from - 0.644% (South Korea) to 0.502% (Japan) [2] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 2, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.465, 17.691 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from 0.17% (South Korean won) to 0.47% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 0.29% (Thai baht) to 0.61% (Brazilian real), monthly changes from - 1.26% (South African rand) to 0.67% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.47% (Thai baht) to 4.94% (South Korean won) [2] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6415.540, 45295.810, 21279.630 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from - 2.29% (German DAX) to 1.50% (Mexican index), weekly changes from - 2.76% (German DAX) to 2.78% (Mexican index), monthly changes from - 1.50% (German DAX) to 6.65% (Shanghai Composite Index), and annual changes from - 7.83% (Thai index) to 44.77% (Hang Seng Index) [2] Credit Bond Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index were 3453.350, 263.168 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from - 0.31% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) to - 0.14% (euro - area high - yield credit bond index), weekly changes from - 0.34% (US and euro - area investment - grade credit bond indexes) to 0.09% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from - 0.49% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.82% (US high - yield credit bond index), and annual changes from 2.98% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.03% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3858.13, 4490.45, 2992.88 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.45%, - 0.74%, 0.39% respectively [4] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.14, 11.88, 33.92 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [4] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.51, 2.37 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, 0.08 respectively [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and the ChiNext were - 2098.61, - 1276.56, - 608.60 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 1398.64, - 1061.97, - 290.34 respectively [4] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 28749.91, 7779.99, 1960.61 respectively, with环比 changes of 1250.30, 76.21, 7.99 respectively [4] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 9.25, - 0.08, - 65.49 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.21%, - 0.00%, - 0.94% respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.130, 105.700, 107.955, 105.570 respectively, with daily changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.18%, 0.08% respectively [5] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3548%, 1.4619%, 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5]

Report Information - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.205%, 4.699%, 3.477% respectively [3] - Latest changes ranged from -0.076% (Brazil) to 0.020% (Japan) [3] - One-year changes varied from -0.355% (Japan) to 0.784% (UK) [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany were 3.610%, 3.932%, 1.931% respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.120% (US) to 0.033% (South Korea) [3] - One-year changes were from -0.692% (Italy) to 0.249% (UK) [3] Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 28, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa were 5.415, -, 17.698 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.71% (South Korean won) to 0.02% (South African rand) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.36% (Thai baht) to 4.07% (South Korean won) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ were 6501.860, 45636.900, 21705.160 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -1.16% (Taiwan stock index) to 0.86% (Mexico stock index) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.88% (Thai stock index) to 35.93% (Spain stock index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.07% (Eurozone investment-grade) to 0.37% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] - One-year changes were from 3.84% (US investment-grade) to 13.45% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 3843.60, 4463.78, 2960.73 respectively [5] - Price changes were from 1.14% (A-shares) to 3.82% (ChiNext) [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500 were 13.86, 11.78, 32.73 respectively [5] -环比 changes were mostly 0.00, except S&P 500 with 0.09 [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-year interest rate of S&P 500 was -0.50, Germany DAX was 2.33 [5] -环比 changes were 0.02 (S&P 500) and 0.00 (Germany DAX) [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A-shares, main board, ChiNext were -475.66, -570.85, -18.92 respectively [5] - 5-day average values were -668.34, -576.89, -114.20 respectively [5] Transaction Amounts - Latest values of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 29708.03, 7394.24, 1952.15 respectively [5] -环比 changes were from -1947.62 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets) to -24.39 (SSE 50) [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis of IF, IH, IC were -3.38, -0.93, -44.16 respectively [5] - Premium or discount rates were from -0.63% (IC) to -0.03% (IH) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.040, 105.620, 107.795, 105.460 respectively [6] - Price changes were from 0.01% (T00) to 0.04% (TF00) [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3643%, 1.5636%, 1.5500% respectively [6] - Daily changes were from -18.00 BP (R001) to 0.00 BP (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents the performance of global asset markets on August 25, 2025, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, stock indices of major economies, stock index futures trading data, government bond futures trading data, and money market conditions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc. are presented. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 4.276, with a latest change of 0.021, a weekly change of - 0.058, a monthly change of - 0.136, and a yearly change of 0.362 [2] - **2 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes of 2 - year government bonds in major economies like the US, UK, Germany, etc. are provided. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 3.790, with a latest change of 0.050, a weekly change of 0.050, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of - 0.140 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - **US dollar against emerging - economy currencies**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of the US dollar against currencies of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc. are shown. For example, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 5.412, with a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.45%, a monthly change of - 3.17%, and a yearly change of - 1.31% [2] - **Renminbi**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are presented. For example, the on - shore RMB exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 7.154, with a latest change of - 0.19%, a weekly change of - 0.44%, a monthly change of - 0.35%, and a yearly change of - 0.29% [2] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of major economies such as the US (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq), UK, France, etc. are given. For example, the S&P 500 index on August 25, 2025, was 6439.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a weekly change of - 0.15%, a monthly change of 0.78%, and a yearly change of 16.17% [2] - **Emerging economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of emerging economies such as Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. are provided. For example, the Hang Seng Index on August 25, 2025, was 25829.910, with a latest change of 1.94%, a weekly change of 2.59%, a monthly change of 1.05%, and a yearly change of 50.97% [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: - Yields and their percentage changes of investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices in the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index on August 25, 2025, was 3463.860, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a weekly change of 0.37%, a monthly change of 1.36%, and a yearly change of 4.30% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3883.56, with a percentage change of 1.51% [3] - **Valuation**: PE(TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are presented. For example, the PE(TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.97, with a环比 change of 0.00 [3] - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are given. For example, the 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 was - 0.62, with a环比 change of - 0.01 [3] - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 177.24, and the 5 - day average value was - 340.99 [3] - **Trading Volume**: Latest values and环比 changes of trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 31411.37, with a环比 change of 5944.27 [3] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage basis of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was 5.38, with a percentage basis of 0.12% [3] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.145, with a percentage change of 0.00% [4] - **Money Market**: - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (in basis points) are presented. For example, R001 was 1.3901%, with a daily change of - 9.00 basis points [4] - **Big - Category Asset Morning Report**: Values and percentage changes of big - category assets on August 25, 2025, are provided. For example, the value was 1602.450, with a latest change of 0.31% [7]