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大类资产早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:08
| 大类资产早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/30 | 4.151 | 4.698 | 3.533 | 2.710 | 3.532 | 3.256 | 0.180 | 3.380 | | 最新变化 | 0.011 | -0.002 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.001 | -0.006 | 0.036 | -0.001 | | 一周变化 | 0.044 | 0.019 | -0.030 | -0.038 | -0.010 | -0.039 | 0.009 | -0.022 | | 一月变化 | -0.111 | -0.101 | -0.049 | -0.074 | -0.143 | ...
大类资产早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:36
| Un An Selli | | --- | | ABUBAP BALIP SOUNCE POINT | | Company of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children and Children a | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/30 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/29 | 4.140 | 4.700 | 3.531 | 2.707 | 3.531 | 3.262 | 0.144 | 3.381 | | 最新变化 ...
国债半年度报告:风险偏好提升,债券吸引力下降
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 Ø 近两年,债券收益率流畅的下行一方面支撑来自于基本面,另一 方面资产荒的大环境必不可少。资金是逐利的,当国内主要资产 收益率面临下滑,缺乏赚钱效应时,低息的债券以稳胜出,被投 资者所选择。叠加资本利得的加持以及国内货币政策宽松的背 景,综合才造就了这两年较为极致的债牛行情。 Ø 今年以来,若按传统的债券分析框架,基本面并未出现明显的边 际变化去支撑债券收益率走高,尤其是下半年年以来,出口压力 加大,制造业动能转弱,国补逐步退出,经济出现断档式回落的 压力。三季度债券市场意外转向,我们认为最核心的变化在于股 市的牛市行情。权益市场牛市预期逐步形成,商品也在反内卷政 策下有看不见的手托底,两个大类资产的赚钱效应显现导致投资 者不再满足于债券微薄的收益,资金出现分流,情绪转弱易跌难 涨。 Ø 三季度末债券市场仍未出现明确的企稳迹象,收益率上行难言结 束。对债券市场而言,主要的利空仍是风险资产收益回升对资金 的分流,股市强势表现的持续性较强,尚未看到明显回落盘整的 迹象。从政策的导向来看,股市引导中长期资金入市,中国资产 价格重估是中长期趋势。因此,无论是外资还是境内机构 ...
大类资产早报-20250922
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:33
Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]
大类资产早报-20250903
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:21
Report Overview - The report is a daily report on major asset markets released by the macro team of the research center on September 3, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 2, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.262%, 4.799%, 3.582% respectively [2] - The latest changes ranged from 0.020% (Switzerland) to 0.067% (Italy), with weekly changes from - 0.055% (Brazil) to 0.120% (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.085% (Japan) to 0.298% (France), and annual changes from - 0.276% (Japan) to 0.888% (UK) [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 2, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.590%, 3.977%, 1.971% respectively [2] - The latest changes ranged from - 0.030% (US) to 0.037% (Italy), with weekly changes from - 0.090% (US) to 0.063% (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.160% (US) to 0.157% (UK), and annual changes from - 0.644% (South Korea) to 0.502% (Japan) [2] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 2, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.465, 17.691 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from 0.17% (South Korean won) to 0.47% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 0.29% (Thai baht) to 0.61% (Brazilian real), monthly changes from - 1.26% (South African rand) to 0.67% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.47% (Thai baht) to 4.94% (South Korean won) [2] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6415.540, 45295.810, 21279.630 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from - 2.29% (German DAX) to 1.50% (Mexican index), weekly changes from - 2.76% (German DAX) to 2.78% (Mexican index), monthly changes from - 1.50% (German DAX) to 6.65% (Shanghai Composite Index), and annual changes from - 7.83% (Thai index) to 44.77% (Hang Seng Index) [2] Credit Bond Indexes - On September 2, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index were 3453.350, 263.168 respectively [2] - The latest changes were from - 0.31% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) to - 0.14% (euro - area high - yield credit bond index), weekly changes from - 0.34% (US and euro - area investment - grade credit bond indexes) to 0.09% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from - 0.49% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.82% (US high - yield credit bond index), and annual changes from 2.98% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.03% (emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3858.13, 4490.45, 2992.88 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.45%, - 0.74%, 0.39% respectively [4] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.14, 11.88, 33.92 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [4] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.51, 2.37 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, 0.08 respectively [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and the ChiNext were - 2098.61, - 1276.56, - 608.60 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 1398.64, - 1061.97, - 290.34 respectively [4] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 28749.91, 7779.99, 1960.61 respectively, with环比 changes of 1250.30, 76.21, 7.99 respectively [4] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 9.25, - 0.08, - 65.49 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.21%, - 0.00%, - 0.94% respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.130, 105.700, 107.955, 105.570 respectively, with daily changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.18%, 0.08% respectively [5] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3548%, 1.4619%, 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5]
大类资产早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:22
Report Information - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.205%, 4.699%, 3.477% respectively [3] - Latest changes ranged from -0.076% (Brazil) to 0.020% (Japan) [3] - One-year changes varied from -0.355% (Japan) to 0.784% (UK) [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany were 3.610%, 3.932%, 1.931% respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.120% (US) to 0.033% (South Korea) [3] - One-year changes were from -0.692% (Italy) to 0.249% (UK) [3] Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 28, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa were 5.415, -, 17.698 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.71% (South Korean won) to 0.02% (South African rand) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.36% (Thai baht) to 4.07% (South Korean won) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ were 6501.860, 45636.900, 21705.160 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -1.16% (Taiwan stock index) to 0.86% (Mexico stock index) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.88% (Thai stock index) to 35.93% (Spain stock index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.07% (Eurozone investment-grade) to 0.37% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] - One-year changes were from 3.84% (US investment-grade) to 13.45% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 3843.60, 4463.78, 2960.73 respectively [5] - Price changes were from 1.14% (A-shares) to 3.82% (ChiNext) [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500 were 13.86, 11.78, 32.73 respectively [5] -环比 changes were mostly 0.00, except S&P 500 with 0.09 [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-year interest rate of S&P 500 was -0.50, Germany DAX was 2.33 [5] -环比 changes were 0.02 (S&P 500) and 0.00 (Germany DAX) [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A-shares, main board, ChiNext were -475.66, -570.85, -18.92 respectively [5] - 5-day average values were -668.34, -576.89, -114.20 respectively [5] Transaction Amounts - Latest values of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 29708.03, 7394.24, 1952.15 respectively [5] -环比 changes were from -1947.62 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets) to -24.39 (SSE 50) [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis of IF, IH, IC were -3.38, -0.93, -44.16 respectively [5] - Premium or discount rates were from -0.63% (IC) to -0.03% (IH) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.040, 105.620, 107.795, 105.460 respectively [6] - Price changes were from 0.01% (T00) to 0.04% (TF00) [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3643%, 1.5636%, 1.5500% respectively [6] - Daily changes were from -18.00 BP (R001) to 0.00 BP (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]
大类资产早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 15:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents the performance of global asset markets on August 25, 2025, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, stock indices of major economies, stock index futures trading data, government bond futures trading data, and money market conditions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc. are presented. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 4.276, with a latest change of 0.021, a weekly change of - 0.058, a monthly change of - 0.136, and a yearly change of 0.362 [2] - **2 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes of 2 - year government bonds in major economies like the US, UK, Germany, etc. are provided. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 3.790, with a latest change of 0.050, a weekly change of 0.050, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of - 0.140 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - **US dollar against emerging - economy currencies**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of the US dollar against currencies of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc. are shown. For example, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 5.412, with a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.45%, a monthly change of - 3.17%, and a yearly change of - 1.31% [2] - **Renminbi**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are presented. For example, the on - shore RMB exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 7.154, with a latest change of - 0.19%, a weekly change of - 0.44%, a monthly change of - 0.35%, and a yearly change of - 0.29% [2] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of major economies such as the US (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq), UK, France, etc. are given. For example, the S&P 500 index on August 25, 2025, was 6439.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a weekly change of - 0.15%, a monthly change of 0.78%, and a yearly change of 16.17% [2] - **Emerging economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of emerging economies such as Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. are provided. For example, the Hang Seng Index on August 25, 2025, was 25829.910, with a latest change of 1.94%, a weekly change of 2.59%, a monthly change of 1.05%, and a yearly change of 50.97% [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: - Yields and their percentage changes of investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices in the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index on August 25, 2025, was 3463.860, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a weekly change of 0.37%, a monthly change of 1.36%, and a yearly change of 4.30% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3883.56, with a percentage change of 1.51% [3] - **Valuation**: PE(TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are presented. For example, the PE(TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.97, with a环比 change of 0.00 [3] - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are given. For example, the 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 was - 0.62, with a环比 change of - 0.01 [3] - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 177.24, and the 5 - day average value was - 340.99 [3] - **Trading Volume**: Latest values and环比 changes of trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 31411.37, with a环比 change of 5944.27 [3] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage basis of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was 5.38, with a percentage basis of 0.12% [3] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.145, with a percentage change of 0.00% [4] - **Money Market**: - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (in basis points) are presented. For example, R001 was 1.3901%, with a daily change of - 9.00 basis points [4] - **Big - Category Asset Morning Report**: Values and percentage changes of big - category assets on August 25, 2025, are provided. For example, the value was 1602.450, with a latest change of 0.31% [7]
在牛市里反思:大多数人的亏钱,其实输在路径依赖
雪球· 2025-08-24 00:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of flexible asset allocation over specialization in a single investment area, particularly in the context of the A-share market, where market conditions can change rapidly [5][9][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment strategy has evolved from focusing solely on A-share funds to diversifying into US ETFs and global markets, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive asset allocation approach [4][5]. - The current asset allocation structure is described as "all-weather," combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance returns while minimizing volatility and risk [5][10]. Group 2: Path Dependency and Its Risks - Path dependency is identified as a detrimental mindset that can hinder investors' ability to achieve stable returns, with examples from real estate and A-shares illustrating the consequences of this approach [6][7][11]. - The article argues that many investors mistakenly believe that specialization will lead to success, while in reality, a broader framework is necessary to avoid costly mistakes [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A scientific asset allocation framework is essential for improving error tolerance, as most investors cannot specialize in a single asset class [10][12]. - The framework should include specific allocations for stocks, bonds, and commodities, and investors should adhere to these rules unless significant issues arise [10][15]. Group 4: Practical Implementation - The article suggests using a three-part method for asset allocation, starting with a risk preference test to determine the appropriate balance between aggressive and conservative investments [13][15]. - Investors are encouraged to take a gradual approach to investing, allowing time to build knowledge and avoid overcommitting based on a false sense of expertise [14][15].
大类资产早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly shows the performance data of global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.286%, the UK was 4.639%. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed among countries. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.051, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.167, and an annual change of 0.393 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on August 14, 2025, were as follows: the US was 3.720, the UK was 3.904. The changes in different time - spans were also provided, such as the US having a latest change of - 0.040, a weekly change of 0.000, a monthly change of - 0.160, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies on August 14, 2025, were presented, like 5.417 against the South African zar. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were given, e.g., the South African zar had a latest change of - 0.14%, a weekly change of - 2.32%, a monthly change of - 4.34% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 14, 2025, major economies' stock indices had different values. For example, the Dow Jones was 6468.540, the S&P 500 was 44911.260. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were also provided, such as the Dow Jones having a latest change of 0.03%, a weekly change of 2.03%, a monthly change of 23.44%, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The credit bond indices of different regions and types had various changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.28%, a weekly change of 0.05%, a monthly change of 1.74%, and an annual change of 4.89% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3666.44 with a - 0.46% change [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.42 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 interest rate) and their环比 changes of some indices were provided, such as the S&P 500 having a risk premium of - 0.64 with a - 0.05环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were shown. For example, the latest fund flow of A - shares was - 1980.11 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22792.09 with a 1282.72环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, and IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was - 9.51 with a - 0.23% magnitude [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.325 with a 0.01% change [6]. - The money market's capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.3518% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [6].
冠通期货宏观与大宗商品周报-20250811
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 14:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]