Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For bonds, expect no trend - driven market and maintain caution [5]. - For stocks, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [8]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to decline, and consider short - selling on rebounds [10]. - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss [12]. - For coking coal and coke, consider short - selling on rebounds [14]. - For ferroalloys, the supply may exceed demand in the short term, and bulls should be cautious [16]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to rise in the short term [19]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [22]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [23]. - For natural rubber, look for long - buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [26]. - For PVC, the mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. - For urea, take a bullish view in the short term [30]. - For PX, consider cautious operations at low levels and pay attention to crude oil and the Middle - East situation [31]. - For PTA, consider going long at low levels and focus on the Middle - East situation [33]. - For ethylene glycol, take a cautiously bullish view and monitor port inventory and imports [34]. - For staple fiber, consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [36]. - For bottle chips, consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [39]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is loose, and long - position holders should control their positions [42]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure, and the domestic chemical pulp market shows a weak upward trend [43]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are hard to reverse [46]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract [48]. - For tin, prices are expected to oscillate [48]. - For nickel, prices are expected to oscillate [49]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [51]. - For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [53]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [55]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [58]. - For sugar, consider batch - buying [61]. - For apples, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [63]. - For live pigs, consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [65]. - For eggs, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. - For corn and starch, the corn market has support but faces pressure, and starch follows the corn market; adopt a wait - and - see strategy [68]. - For logs, beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [71]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures close down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to be cautious [5]. Stocks - Stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange introduced an ESG action plan. Despite weak recovery momentum and tariff uncertainties, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long run, and going long on stock index futures is considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures declined. Most central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, and the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue. Going long on gold futures is considered [8]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are suppressing prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices may continue to fall. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [10]. Iron Ore - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The decline in iron - water production and the increase in imports have weakened the supply - demand pattern. The price is at a relatively high valuation. Buying at low levels and setting stop - loss are recommended [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures prices showed mixed performance. The market is in an oversupply situation. Coke production is decreasing, and prices may continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds is considered [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese and silicon ferroalloys rose slightly. Manganese ore shipments increased, and port inventory rebounded. Steel production declined, and ferroalloy supply may exceed demand in the short term [16]. Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose. Fund managers increased net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Due to geopolitical risks, prices are expected to rise in the short term [18][19]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose strongly following crude oil. Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the market is uncertain. Going long on the main contract is considered [20][22]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract rose. Supply pressure eased slightly, and the cost is expected to rebound, driving the market to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate [23]. Natural Rubber - Futures prices rose slightly. Supply was affected by rain, and demand was weak. After the market stabilizes, look for long - buying opportunities [24][26]. PVC - The main contract rose. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is in the off - season. The mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. Urea - The main contract declined slightly. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by agricultural needs and overseas supply tightening. A short - term bullish view is taken [28][30]. PX - The main contract rose. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost was supported by rising crude oil prices. Prices may rise but with limited upside. Cautious operations at low levels are recommended [31]. PTA - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand increased, and the cost was supported by crude oil. Consider going long at low levels [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - The main contract rose. Supply was affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inventory decreased slightly. Take a cautiously bullish view and monitor imports [34]. Staple Fiber - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand weakened, and the cost was supported. Consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [35][36]. Bottle Chips - The main contract rose. The cost was supported, supply decreased due to maintenance, and demand improved. Consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. Soda Ash - The main contract rose. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [38][39]. Glass - The main contract rose. There is no obvious supply - demand driver. The market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. Caustic Soda - The main contract declined slightly. Supply may increase, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is loose. Long - position holders should control their positions [41][42]. Pulp - The main contract rose. Downstream product production declined, and demand was weak. The domestic chemical pulp market showed a weak upward trend [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract declined slightly. Supply remains high, demand slows down, and the supply - demand surplus persists. Prices are hard to reverse [46]. Copper - Shanghai copper declined. Affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's decision, prices oscillated. Although there are some positive factors, the market is cautious. Consider going long on the main contract [47]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from mines is tight, and consumption is good. The price is expected to oscillate between the tight supply and the loose expectation [48]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Futures prices rose. Soybean crushing increased, and inventory accumulated. Brazilian soybeans had a bumper harvest, and the cost increased. Be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [50][51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil was nearly flat. Exports increased, but demand from major markets was weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [52][53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed planting may decrease. Domestic imports increased, and inventory accumulated. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [54][55]. Cotton - Domestic cotton oscillated. Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but oil prices may support cotton. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [56][58]. Sugar - Domestic sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the conflict in the Middle - East may affect supply. Domestic inventory is low. Consider batch - buying [58][61]. Apples - Apple futures oscillated. The final output will be clear after bagging. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [62][63]. Live Pigs - The price declined slightly. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak after the holiday. Consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [63][65]. Eggs - The price rose. Egg production is expected to increase, and it is the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. Corn and Starch - Corn and starch futures rose slightly. Supply and demand are approaching balance, but there is pressure on the upside. Starch follows the corn market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [67][68]. Logs - The main contract was flat. The number of incoming ships increased, and inventory changed. The market has no obvious driver. Beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing short - term and long - term investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [5][8][11]. - It suggests that while the current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, different asset classes have different investment opportunities. For example, it is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and precious metals, and provides specific trading strategies for each futures product [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. Although China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, considering the Sino - US trade situation, it is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose by 0.89%, 0.79%, 0.75%, and 0.63% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 777.54, up 0.32%, and the night - session closed at 780.36; the main silver contract closed at 8,902, up 0.17%, and the night - session closed at 8830 [11]. - **Analysis**: The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast for 2025. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. As the market enters the off - season, prices are at a new low for the year and may continue to decline. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. From a valuation perspective, the downside is limited. Technically, they may enter a weak - shock phase. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand balance has weakened marginally, but from a valuation perspective, it is still at a relatively high level. Technically, it has found support at previous lows. Investors can consider buying at low levels, taking profits on rebounds, and setting stop - losses if it breaks previous lows [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and weak demand. Technically, they may stop falling in the short - term but remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract fell 1.22% to 5486 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 0.35% to 5184 yuan/ton. Supply is high while demand is weak, and high inventory is putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and long - position investors should be cautious. If spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Sino - US negotiations in London are positive for market sentiment. The US has set a deadline for the trade agreement, and tariff frictions are in the second half. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased, and shale oil production has increased while on - shore conventional oil production has decreased. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main crude - oil contract [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke through the moving - average group. The increase in ARA fuel - oil inventory is positive for the market. As tariff frictions enter the agreement - signing stage, global trade demand is recovering, and the rebound in crude - oil prices will drive up fuel - oil prices. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main fuel - oil contract [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic - rubber contract fell 0.04%. Supply pressure has eased slightly, demand improvement is limited, and cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize. Investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main natural - rubber contract rose 0.83%. The market is worried about future demand, and domestic inventory has increased against the seasonal trend. Supply has been affected by rain, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [28][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.56%. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The market is expected to remain in a low - level shock pattern with occasional rebounds. It is currently in a bottom - shock phase [31][33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 1.24%. Industrial demand has decreased, and agricultural demand is tepid. After the price decline, export and agricultural demand may support the market. Investors can consider taking long positions at low prices and continue to monitor policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [35][36]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.37%. The supply - demand structure is tight in the short - term, and the cost is supported by crude - oil prices. However, after the PXN spread has recovered to a relatively high level, there is a downward pressure. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to crude - oil price changes and macro - policy adjustments [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.43%. The supply - demand structure has weakened, but inventory reduction has made it relatively resistant to decline. The cost is supported. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can consider trading within a low - price range and pay attention to opportunities to shrink the processing fee [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene - glycol contract rose 0.4%. Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. In the short - term, there is no upward drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract rose 0.16%. Downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive. As the processing fee is compressed, production may be further reduced. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low prices [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2507 main contract fell 0.17%. The raw - material price has adjusted downward, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost trend and oscillate. Investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [43]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Production is stable, and supply remains high, while downstream demand is tepid. In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly stable with narrow price fluctuations. In the medium - to long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve, and long - position investors should be cautious [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive. The market is affected by sentiment, and prices are mostly stable. In the short - term, there may be a bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. Some plants are under maintenance, and production capacity utilization is about 83.1%. In the long - term, new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position investors should control their positions [47][49]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high inventory and no obvious improvement in downstream pulp consumption. The increase in Brazilian shipments to China in May is a negative factor. The market is waiting for a signal to break the deadlock. In June, it is the traditional off - season, and the market is expected to improve in August [50][51]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium - carbonate contract rose 1.68% to 61680 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The decline in ore prices has broken the cost support, and supply is expected to increase. Demand is weakening, and inventory remains high. Prices are difficult to reverse until large - scale ore - production capacity is cleared [52]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract rose 0.93% to 3047 yuan/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract fell 0.93% to 7694 yuan/ton. US Midwest crop weather is good, and US soybean futures fell overnight. Brazilian soybean production is at a record high, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. It is expected that the upward movement of the soybean - meal main contract will be under pressure, and investors should wait and see. For soybean oil, the cost support at the bottom is strengthening, and investors can consider low - value call options [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. In May, production and inventory increased, and exports also increased. In China, palm - oil imports have decreased year - on - year, and inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past seven years. It is recommended to consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [61][62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose due to dry weather and improved trade prospects. In China, rapeseed - oil imports have increased year - on - year, and rapeseed - meal imports have increased in April. Rapeseed inventory is at a low level, while rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventory are at high levels. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after the rapeseed - meal price correction [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton futures oscillated. Weather is favorable for cotton growth, and Sino - US negotiations are expected to be positive. The US cotton - growing rate is 76%, and the优良率 is 49%. Global cotton production has decreased, and consumption has increased. Currently, the industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [66][67][68]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar futures fell. The 2024/25 sugar - production season has ended, with an increase in production and sales. India's sugar production is expected to be high, and Brazil's production is expected to pick up. Currently, domestic inventory is low, and imports are expected to increase. It is recommended to take long positions in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apple**: Domestic apple futures oscillated. There are reports of production cuts in some regions, and the specific production data will be clear after bagging. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production - survey data [72]. - **Hog**: The national average hog price rose slightly. In the north, prices rebounded, and in the south, they were stable or slightly increased. In the short - term, consumption is improving, but in the medium - term, demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position spreads for peak - season contracts [73][74][75]. - **Egg**: The average egg price in the main producing and selling areas fell. The cost per catty of eggs has decreased, and the breeding profit is negative. The number of laying hens in May increased year - on - year and is expected to continue to increase in June. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [76][77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The main corn contract rose 0.08% to 2374 yuan/ton, and the main corn - starch contract rose 0.26% to 2709 yuan/ton. Corn - growing weather is good, and US corn futures fell overnight. North - port and south - port corn inventories are decreasing, and the supply pressure is short - term. Corn demand is growing slightly. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [78][79][80]. - **Log**: The main 2507 contract closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The number of New Zealand log shipments to China in the 24th week is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price is weak. The improvement in housing transactions may stimulate market sentiment in the short - term. As the 07 contract approaches the delivery month, beware of bullish - sentiment disturbances [81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income and Equities - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated closing of treasury bond futures. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn has led to a decline in rebar demand, and the market is in a slack season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss points [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak oscillations. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had small increases. The short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. If the spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [21][22]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a strong upward trend. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper futures [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin showed an oscillating trend. The current shortage pattern in the real - world and the expectation of a loose supply are in a game, and it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, with a bearish oscillating view [58][59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [60]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and moved higher. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and the OPEC's pressure on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe stage. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the crude oil main contract [23][25][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory has put pressure on prices, but the rise in crude oil prices may drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the fuel oil main contract [27][28][29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber showed a small increase. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures had different performances. The market has concerns about future demand, and the inventory has increased against the season. Wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - position opportunities [32][33][34]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC showed a small increase. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea declined. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and investors can consider going long at low levels [38][39][40]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has a downward trend. It is recommended to trade with an oscillating mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider trading in a low - level range [42][43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and policy changes [44]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined slightly. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [45][46][47]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The raw material price has corrected, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost price changes [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the rise excessively [49]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures increased. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market sentiment is weak. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and short - position investors should control their positions [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. Long - position investors should control their positions [51][52]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, pulp futures increased. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and the inventory is high. The real turnaround may occur in August [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [54][55]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased. The U.S. soybean growing weather is good, and the supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal, and investors can consider low - value call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the past seven years. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market lacks clear trading guidance. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories have different trends. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the correction of rapeseed meal [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures increased slightly. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and wait and see [67][68][69]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The domestic sugar inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The new - year domestic apple production has high uncertainty. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities after the correction [73][74]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures declined slightly. The short - term price may decline, but the contract is at a discount. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities for peak - season contracts [74][75]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short at high levels [76][79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures increased. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but the short - term supply pressure still exists. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81][82]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, log futures increased. The fundamental situation has no obvious drive, and the housing transaction improvement may stimulate market sentiment in the short term. Investors should be wary of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6]. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, and it is in the off - season. The price is at a low level, and there may be short - term weak oscillations. Short positions on rebounds are recommended [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. Long positions at low levels are recommended [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. Long positions need caution, and low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. With upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expected weakening of OPEC's pressure on oil prices, the oil price is expected to strengthen, and long positions are considered [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened high and closed low. Rising crude oil prices may drive up fuel oil prices, and long positions are considered [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. Wait for stabilization and then participate in rebounds [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns about demand and high inventory. Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long positions [31][32][33]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly follows the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. Short - term cost decline and delayed agricultural demand lead to adjustments, but exports and future agricultural demand may drive the price up. Long positions at low levels can be considered [37][38][39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. Short - term crude oil prices oscillate, and the supply - demand structure is tight. It should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and interval operations are recommended [40]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply - demand structure weakens, but inventory reduction and cost support exist. Interval operations at low levels are recommended [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply - demand situation weakens, but inventory reduction increases short - term games. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Downstream demand weakens, but cost support exists. Follow the cost - end oscillations and consider long positions at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Raw material prices decline, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve. Follow the cost - end oscillations and participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Avoid excessive long positions [46]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term rebound may not last. Control short - position risks [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The overall supply - demand is loose, with regional differences. Long - position holders should control risks [49][50]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate in the off - season, and a turnaround may occur in August [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [52][53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US trade negotiations are beneficial, and the basis for price increase exists. Long positions are considered [54][55]. Tin - Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus exists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [56][57]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support weakens, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options [59][60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The inventory is increasing, and opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Consider long positions in rapeseed meal after corrections [64][65][66]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The industry is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and USDA reports. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [67][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose. Overseas production is expected to increase, while domestic inventory is low. Consider long positions in batches [70][72][73]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long positions after corrections [74][75]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, live - pig futures fell. Group - farm sales are increasing, and consider long - spread opportunities in peak - season contracts [76][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and short positions at high levels are considered [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][84][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing market trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each product [5][7][10]. - It suggests different trading strategies for different products, such as being cautious about bonds, considering long - positions in stock index futures, and having specific trading ideas for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had respective increases of 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.07%, and 0.04%. The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In May 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract had a closing price of 782.42 with a decline of 0.09%, and the silver main contract had a closing price of 8,463 with an increase of 0.08%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, steel futures rebounded significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing steel prices. However, the current valuation is low, and there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. It is recommended to buy at low levels, take profit on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and it is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. It is recommended to pay attention to call option opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron under certain conditions [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil trended upward. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but it may be suspended or reversed. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to go long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed different trends. The fuel oil price is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. The demand side is still worried, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC main contract rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea main contract closed flat. The cost has decreased, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy changes [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the PXN spread may decline. It is recommended to trade with a range - bound mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA main contract fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It is recommended to trade in a range on dips and pay attention to risk control [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [39][40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to risk control [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips main contract fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand has improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash main contract rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass main contract rose. The supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda main contract fell. The supply - demand is generally loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp main contract fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale production clearance [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper trended upward. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and it is recommended to go long on the main Shanghai copper contract [51][52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal closed flat, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and pay attention to call option opportunities for soybean oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to exit the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures trended weakly. The market is waiting and watching due to uncertain Sino - US relations. It is recommended to trade with a light position [65][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded after hitting a low. The domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long in batches [69][70][71]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded after hitting a low. The new - year production is uncertain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main live pig contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the second - fattening participation after the festival and consider the positive spread opportunity for the peak - season contract [73][74]. Eggs - Last trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [75][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [79][80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract fell. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market support for the futures price is weak [82][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [5][6]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed certain changes. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declined. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold futures rose, and silver futures fell slightly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the current price valuation is low. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is relatively high. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. For manganese - silicon, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but the oil price is expected to rebound. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The global trade demand is recovering, and the inventory decline supports the price. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main fuel - oil contract [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures showed mixed performance. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels [32][33][34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has recovered. It is advisable to trade with an oscillation mindset and pay attention to the cost and policies [35]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. It is advisable to operate in the low - range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and it is expected to oscillate [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and the cost is supportive. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [39]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw - material cost is supportive, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost [40][41]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to oscillate steadily [42]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to rebound briefly and then pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [49]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell. The US trade policy is changeable, but the basis for copper price increase still exists. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on Shanghai copper futures [50][51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [52]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [54][55]. Palm Oil - The BMD palm - oil market had certain fluctuations. The inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [56][57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic inventory situation is different for rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities after the decline of rapeseed meal [59][60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures showed weak oscillations. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain. It is advisable to operate with a light position and consider long - position after the decline [61][62][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The Brazilian production is low, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [64][65][66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures recovered from the bottom. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long - position opportunities after the decline [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The pig price showed certain fluctuations. The supply and demand are in a complex situation. Consider the positive - spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [70][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures rose. The supply is expected to increase in June. Consider short - selling after the rebound [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to wait and see for corn starch [74][75]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the market has no obvious driving force [76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the second quarter of 2024, the revenue growth of listed liquor companies has significantly slowed down due to weak industry consumption demand, alongside increased competition and diminished scale effects impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall sales volume of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival has shown a certain degree of narrowing in the year-on-year decline [1] - If future demand stabilizes gradually, considering the base effect in 2024, it is expected that the performance of liquor companies may improve starting from the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, share buybacks, and stock purchases, thereby increasing investment safety margins [1] - Anticipation of forthcoming consumption stimulus policies and expectations of continued macroeconomic recovery support the recommendation to maintain allocations in leading liquor enterprises [1]

国泰海通（601211） 2025 年一季报点评：并表海通，各主营业务 增速可观，带动扣非净利润同比增长 61% 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 67,415 | 76,533 | 83,556 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 55.35% | 13.52% | 9.18% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 26,866 | 28,047 | 32,633 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 106.28% | 4.39% | 16.35% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.85 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.36 | 10.12 | 9.23 | 8.84 | 7.60 | 证券研究报告·公司点评 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.25 yuan and ROE of 1.9%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's brokerage business revenue significantly increased to 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.0%, accounting for 42.5% of total operating revenue [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the stock market reached 1.7031 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [1] - The company's margin financing and securities lending balance was 100.1 billion yuan, up 24% from the beginning of the year, with a market share of 5.2% [1] Group 3: Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking revenue for Q1 2025 was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.0% [2] - The company's equity underwriting scale was 3.51 billion yuan, down 57.5% year-on-year, ranking 8th in the industry [2] - The bond underwriting scale was 75.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, ranking 13th in the industry [2] Group 4: Asset Management and Investment Income - Asset management revenue rose to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [3] - The company's asset management scale was 282.2 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 4.3% year-on-year [3] - Investment income for Q1 2025 was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18%, 7%, and 7% respectively [3] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing capital market reforms and a gradual economic recovery, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]