Group 1 - The current market for small and micro-cap stocks needs to slow down, as high valuations and negative TTM profits make it difficult to justify further upward movement [2] - The five strong industry trends (non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industry) have more reasonable valuations compared to the small and micro-cap stocks [2] - The main drivers of small and micro-cap stocks are liquidity and retail investor contributions, but their overall profit growth is not as strong as in 2015 [2] Group 2 - A rebound in A-shares was observed, driven by trading funds, with a focus on themes like dividends and small micro-cap stocks [3] - The two financing balance reached a nearly 10-year high, indicating that liquidity-driven market conditions may still have incremental support [3] - The PPI has shown signs of bottoming out, and the "anti-involution" policy is beginning to show effects, suggesting a stable economic outlook [3] Group 3 - July exports exceeded expectations, particularly in competitive manufacturing sectors like machinery, automobiles, and integrated circuits [4] - The PPI decline has stabilized, benefiting from price rebounds in sectors like black metals, non-ferrous metals, coal, and photovoltaics [4] - The basic economic fundamentals are showing a trend of steady improvement, with recommendations to focus on sectors with high growth or improvement in earnings [4] Group 4 - The two financing balance has risen above 2 trillion yuan, but remains at historical mid-levels compared to the peak in 2015 [5] - The market is expected to maintain a high volatility range, with a focus on sectors with strong earnings performance during the concentrated reporting period [5] - The "anti-involution" concept is anticipated to be a recurring theme in the market, alongside opportunities in growth sectors driven by AI and emerging industries [5] Group 5 - The current bull market atmosphere is not expected to dissipate easily, with potential mainline directions including domestic technological breakthroughs and competitive manufacturing sectors [6] - The market is likely to maintain its characteristics of sector rotation and high micro-level activity, with small-cap growth stocks continuing to outperform [6] - There are new opportunities for participation, particularly in event-driven individual stocks [6] Group 6 - Short-term upward movement in A-shares may face resistance, but the market remains in a bull market continuation phase [7] - The focus is on new low-level niche products in emerging sectors, with significant potential in areas like brain-computer interfaces and liquid cooling technologies [7] - The military sector is expected to have a short-term rally, with attention on new combat capabilities and military trade-related stocks [7] Group 7 - The current market rally is supported by various sources of incremental capital, with a notable increase in M1-M2 growth rates indicating enhanced liquidity [8] - The two financing balance reaching a 10-year high reflects a rising risk appetite among individual investors [8] - The focus on new technologies and growth directions, such as domestic computing power and robotics, is expected to drive future market trends [8] Group 8 - There is a divergence in judgment regarding the liquidity-driven bull market, with the potential for significant resident capital inflow into the stock market [9] - Historical patterns suggest that the initial phases of a bull market often see improvements in specific channels before broader participation [9] - The current market's rise is still modest compared to previous bull markets, indicating that concerns about a major downturn may be premature [9] Group 9 - The current market adjustment is seen as a structural shift rather than a peak in the broader cycle, with manageable index fluctuations [11] - The market is transitioning from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, driven by policies similar to previous economic stimulus measures [11] - Continued focus on technology sectors, including AI and robotics, is recommended for future investment strategies [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state where supply fundamentals are peaking, with high crude steel supply and seasonal decline in demand, resulting in certain supply - demand pressures. However, due to coal mine production checks and expected steel mill production restrictions in August, the subsequent iron - water output may decline, which could drive the futures market up. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level trend. Traders are advised to wait and see for single - side trading, consider positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options trading [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar increased by 10.12 tons to 221.18 tons, while that of hot - rolled decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.89 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 34.5% (+ 1.4%). The production enthusiasm of the overall steel industry was relatively strong [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 210.79 tons (+ 7.38 tons), and that for hot - rolled was 306.21 tons (- 13.79 tons). Steel exports declined due to rising prices. The real estate market was still in a downward trend, but the manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand, while the home appliance industry entered a demand off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 10.39 tons, hot - rolled inventory increased by 8.68 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, steel prices may maintain a high - level trend. Future attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a high - level trend and recommend waiting and seeing; for arbitrage, recommend positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for options, recommend waiting and seeing [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3300 yuan (+ 40 yuan). The hot - rolled price in Shanghai was 3460 yuan (+ 50 yuan), and in Tianjin was 3400 yuan (+ 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of East - China electric furnaces was - 44.37 yuan (+ 9.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was + 121 yuan (+ 10 yuan). The profit of long - process steel decreased slightly but remained above 100 yuan [4][30]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Policies**: A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. Seven departments including the central bank issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, and three departments issued a plan for a new round of rural road improvement [32]. - **Foreign Policies**: The US may impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [32]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase in both new RMB loans and government bond issuance. The M1 - M2 growth rate was - 3.7%, with a significant reduction in the decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 2.8%, with a decline in the growth rate [42]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric furnaces was 34.5% (+ 1.6%). The small - sample production of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled decreased [4][62][67]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar increased, while that for hot - rolled decreased. The export of steel decreased due to rising prices. The real estate market was still weak, the manufacturing industry expanded, the automobile industry maintained growth, and the home appliance industry entered an off - season [4][70]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled both increased, and the total inventory of five major steel products also increased [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity amid fiscal tax peaks and potential quarter-end pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 8, with a three-month term, to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [1]. - This operation is strategically timed to cover the fiscal tax peak in August and the quarter-end assessment period at the end of September, reflecting the central bank's liquidity management strategy [2][3]. - Analysts expect a second reverse repo operation in August, considering the upcoming maturity of 4 billion yuan in three-month and 5 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos, totaling 9 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The central bank is likely to continue using various monetary policy tools, including MLF and reverse repos, to stabilize market expectations and promote credit expansion amid a slowing economic growth backdrop [5][6]. - There is a consensus among analysts that the PBOC may implement further reverse repo operations to address liquidity needs related to government bond issuances and to maintain a stable liquidity environment [4][5]. - The PBOC's approach is characterized by a focus on medium-term liquidity adjustments, with expectations of potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to inject long-term liquidity into the market [6].

Group 1 - The central bank will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 8, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - There are 4 billion yuan of 3-month and 5 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing in August, indicating that the central bank may conduct another 6-month reverse repo operation within the month [1] - The backdrop for these operations includes a high issuance period for government bonds and a significant amount of maturing deposits, with regulatory emphasis on increasing monetary credit [1] Group 2 - In August, short-term market liquidity is expected to remain stable, while there may be some tightening pressure in the medium term [2] - The central bank is likely to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos to support the ongoing government bond issuance [2] - The manufacturing PMI index has declined again, suggesting that the central bank may consider further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a fixed amount of 700 billion yuan reverse repos to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] - Despite a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan from reverse repos, analysts believe this does not indicate a reduction in reverse repo operations for August [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue its net injection strategy through reverse repos and MLF to address liquidity needs amid government bond issuance pressures [2] Group 2 - The central government's emphasis on accelerating government bond issuance and the large scale of maturing deposits in August are key factors influencing liquidity management [2] - Analysts predict that the PBOC will inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos to maintain a stable liquidity environment during the peak of government bond issuance [2] - There is an expectation of potential monetary policy adjustments, including possible rate cuts in the fourth quarter, due to increasing economic downward pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has significantly increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations in June and July, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the financial system [3]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - In June and July, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations amounting to 14,000 billion yuan each month, achieving a net injection of 2,000 billion yuan [3]. - The operations in June included injections of 10,000 billion yuan at the beginning of the month and 4,000 billion yuan in the middle of the month, while July saw a 14,000 billion yuan injection in mid-month [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - In August, 9,000 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements are set to mature, which exceeds the current injection volume, indicating potential liquidity tightening [3]. - Analyst Wang Qing anticipates that the central bank will conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation within August, alongside the expected rollover of 3,000 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3]. - The expectation is that the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system during the peak of government bond issuance [3].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - In August, there are 400 billion yuan of 3-month and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing, indicating potential further operations to maintain liquidity [1][2] - The central government's push for accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds is expected to keep liquidity conditions stable in August, despite some tightening pressures in the medium-term market [2] Group 2 - The PBOC is likely to continue using MLF and reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity, supporting the ongoing government bond issuance peak [2] - The manufacturing PMI index has shown signs of contraction, indicating increased economic downward pressure, which may lead to potential rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - In August, the focus will be on the verification of policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery[1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to lead to moderate price recovery, although short-term trends remain uncertain[1] - External factors indicate a potential 90-day extension of the exemption period, with reduced uncertainty in tariff policies, but the downward trend in exports is expected to continue[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that August is a month with potential liquidity fluctuations, but risks are limited under current monetary policy targets[2] - The liquidity gap in August is projected to be around 1.8 trillion, with a central tendency likely to remain around 1.5%[2] - The supply of government bonds is expected to accelerate, with net financing projected between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion[3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Demand for bonds may weaken due to increased supply and limited institutional buying power, with a supply-demand index for August expected to be at 59%, significantly lower than the second quarter average[3] - The market is likely to experience structural pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand[3] Group 4: Market Strategy - The bond market is entering the second phase of a "three-step" strategy, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%[3] - Investors are advised to be flexible and consider timely profit-taking in response to key market events and policy announcements[3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that August marks the second phase of the "three-step" strategy for the bond market, with a focus on timely adjustments and profit-taking opportunities [6][5][4] - The fundamental outlook for August suggests a verification period for policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery [15][16][17] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to influence pricing and production, although short-term trends remain uncertain [21][22][25] Group 2 - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain supportive, with the central bank's actions likely to mitigate potential funding disruptions during the high payment month of August [31][32][38] - Historical data shows that August typically experiences significant government bond issuance, which may lead to increased net financing [40][41] - The supply-demand structure in the bond market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand from institutions [2][3][4] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade negotiations and tariff policies, which may impact market sentiment and bond performance [25][26][27] - The anticipated issuance of new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate investment demand, particularly in infrastructure projects [16][17][19] - The report emphasizes the need for flexible trading strategies, particularly in response to key events and market sentiment shifts [6][5][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].