Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a proactive monetary policy by injecting liquidity into the banking system through various tools, including a 900 billion yuan MLF operation and a 17 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, to maintain liquidity and support economic stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, with a one-year term, marking a net injection of 200 billion yuan due to 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month [1]. - In addition to MLF, the PBOC has executed a 17 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, resulting in a net injection of 400 billion yuan after offsetting 13 trillion yuan of maturing agreements [3]. - Overall, the PBOC's net liquidity injection for October is projected to reach 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level consistent with September [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The PBOC's actions reflect a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, aimed at addressing liquidity pressures due to tax payment periods and month-end financial strains [3][4]. - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized, as the PBOC's liquidity support is intended to facilitate the issuance of government bonds, with an expected net financing of over one trillion yuan for October [4]. - The PBOC's liquidity injections are also designed to support credit expansion and meet the financing needs of the real economy, with new policy financial instruments expected to leverage around 50,000 billion yuan in effective investment [4]. Group 3: Market Stability and Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to stabilize market expectations and maintain stable medium- to long-term interest rates amid rising market rates influenced by various factors [5]. - Looking ahead, significant amounts of MLF and reverse repos are set to mature in the fourth quarter and early next year, prompting speculation about potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or bond purchases by the PBOC to further enhance liquidity [6]. - The market liquidity is expected to remain stable and ample until the end of the year, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [6].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased liquidity support [1][2] - The central bank's actions are aimed at addressing liquidity pressures due to a significant tax period and month-end cash flow challenges [1] - The PBOC's liquidity injections are also intended to support government bond issuance and enhance credit availability for the real economy [2][3] Group 1 - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan after accounting for 700 billion yuan in MLF maturing this month [1] - October's liquidity net injection reached 600 billion yuan, consistent with the previous month, indicating a sustained accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The central bank's liquidity measures are designed to alleviate funding pressures during a high tax payment period and month-end transitions [1] Group 2 - The PBOC's liquidity support aligns with the government's bond issuance strategy, with an expected net financing of over one trillion yuan in government bonds this month [2] - The central bank's ongoing liquidity provision is crucial for facilitating the smooth issuance of government bonds and reflects coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments is projected to unlock approximately 5 trillion yuan in effective investment, creating a demand for 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan in accompanying loans [2] Group 3 - The upcoming maturity of MLF and reverse repos in Q4 and January 2024 poses significant liquidity pressures, with a total of 5.6 trillion yuan and 1.9 trillion yuan maturing, respectively [3] - The PBOC may consider reducing reserve requirements or purchasing bonds to further release liquidity in response to these pressures [3] - Market liquidity is expected to remain stable and ample until the end of the year, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's macroeconomic policy is entering a critical period for stable growth in the fourth quarter, with coordinated monetary and fiscal measures aimed at creating a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, while net draining 23.5 billion yuan on the same day due to 236 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1]. - Despite a slight tightening in market liquidity due to tax periods and month-end factors, the overall liquidity remains stable under the PBOC's management, with expectations for the upcoming 700 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to be rolled over or slightly increased to stabilize market expectations [1]. Group 2: Credit Expansion Measures - The three major policy banks have disclosed that nearly 300 billion yuan of a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool has been deployed, which is expected to drive total project investments exceeding 4 trillion yuan, with full deployment anticipated by the end of the year [3]. - Compared to 2022, the current round of tools has a broader scope, including sectors like service consumption, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and technological innovation, aiming to leverage project capital to support economic structural transformation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal and Banking Coordination - The Ministry of Finance and the PBOC conducted a 120 billion yuan one-month treasury cash deposit auction, enhancing the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [4]. - Regional small and medium-sized banks have initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, creating conditions to support the real economy [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Professionals generally anticipate that monetary policy will continue to strengthen in the fourth quarter, with the PBOC expected to utilize various tools and potentially implement reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to enhance support for the real economy [5]. - The synergistic effect of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to provide strong support for achieving the annual economic and social development goals [5].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 内外动能或进入"转换期" ——9 月经济数据解读 ❖ 9 月数据解读：投资弱化、消费放缓，生产强势再回归 1、月度 GDP：9 月工业生产强势回归，带动二产增速边际上行，9 月 GDP 约 为 5.0%左右。其中三产增速平稳，二产在工业增速、基建投资回暖之下表现 改善，是 9 月 GDP 回升的主要动力。 2、基建：政策效果初显，传统基建边际回暖。单月看，不含电力基建投资 9 月同比-4.6%、全口径基建同比-8.0%，一升一降。9 月下旬，多地新型政策性 金融工具资金完成首笔投放，投资施工等高频指标开始改善，指向基建投资景 气或有上行，10 月政策效果释放或更为充分。 2、房地产：投资降幅扩大，销售持稳。1-9 月地产投资累计同比增速-13.9%， 单月同比-21.3%，继续下滑 1.8pct。住宅销售面积同比-11.4%、较上月扩大- 1.7pct。"金九"行情弱于去年同期表现，总量政策维持定力之下，四季度高基 数扰动或进一步放大。 3、制造业投资：9 月降幅继续走扩。9 月制造业投资同比-1.9%，降幅扩大 0.6pct， 1-9 月累计同比+4.0%。国 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月20日 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | 事项： 9 月 29 日国家发改委召开新闻发布会，称"会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政 策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。"我们预计这将对社融和银行信贷投放产生 积极影响，并在未来几年利好银行信贷需求。 评论： 5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具全部用于补充项目资本金 宽信用又添工具，银行信 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's M2 declined in September and was lower than expected, mainly due to a short - term sharp decrease in non - bank deposits. The overall M2 remained at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. The new social financing decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in fiscal financing and the decrease in the financing demand of the household and enterprise sectors. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. Given the existing external shock risks and the stable domestic economic growth, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With fiscal efforts and the easing of external shocks, the financing demand of enterprises, households, and the government is expected to gradually recover, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to accelerate. In the short term, financial data has little impact on domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate, while in the long - term, the process of loose credit is expected to speed up as domestic support policies are implemented and take effect [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content M2 Situation - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with an expected 8.5% and a previous value of 8.8%. The growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and increased by 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 declined and was lower than expected because of the large increase in enterprise and household deposits and the significant decrease in non - bank deposits due to the return of wealth management funds to the balance sheet. The overall money supply maintained reasonable growth. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and higher than the expected 6.1%, reflecting the improvement of enterprise profits and the continuous current - account of household and enterprise deposits. M0 increased by 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2%. With M1 rising and M2 remaining high, the overall capital supply remained stable, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. Due to the stable domestic economic growth and existing external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal and real - estate policies, and the short - term improvement of the real - estate market, the demand for credit creation will pick up, and M2 is expected to rise in the short term [1][2]. New RMB Loans - In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, with an expected 1460 billion yuan and a previous value of 59 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new loans in September were less than the same period last year and lower than market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bill financing and household loans. New household short - term loans were 14.21 billion yuan, 12.79 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and new household long - term loans were 25 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The decline in household loans may reflect the weak income expectations of households. The long - term loans were moderately boosted by the optimized real - estate demand policies in first - tier cities. New enterprise loans were 122 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Short - term and long - term loans were 71 billion and 91 billion yuan respectively, with short - term loans increasing by 25 billion yuan and long - term loans decreasing by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, partly affected by local governments' repayment of enterprise arrears. The new bill financing was - 40.26 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills increased year - on - year, possibly reflecting the decline in banks' bill - padding demand at the end of the quarter [1][3][4]. Social Financing Scale - In September, the increment of the social financing scale was 353.37 billion yuan, with an expected 335 billion yuan and a previous value of 256.68 billion yuan, 22.98 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of the social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. In terms of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, with household credit demand picking up and enterprise credit decreasing. Enterprise bond financing increased, government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and non - standard financing demand rose. New credit in September was 160.8 billion yuan, 36.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in the bill financing demand of households and real - economy enterprises. Non - standard assets such as trust loans, entrusted loans, and bank acceptances not yet discounted increased by 35.79 billion yuan in total, 18.69 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise bond financing increased by 1.05 billion yuan, 20.31 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly supported by the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds. Government bond net financing was 118.86 billion yuan, 34.71 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the large - scale issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. Overall, the financing demand of the real - economy sector decreased year - on - year. In the short - and medium - term, due to the negative impact of tariffs, the government will continue to expand financing. The enterprise sector's financing demand is expected to improve gradually in the long - term, and the household sector's financing demand is expected to continue the slow recovery trend. Although the current social financing demand has declined slightly year - on - year in the short term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the long - term as the domestic monetary policy continues to be loose and support policies are further strengthened and implemented [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. Although the economic data announced in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With the stock market remaining strong, the impact of new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, bond market sentiment remained weak. In October, potential negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, the intensification of anti - involution, and market waiting for the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Potential positives may be the slowdown of economic data boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected incremental fiscal strength, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to materialize. Overall, October may be a window period for risk clearing after the negatives are realized, and the bond market may stabilize. However, the rally phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, which may be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deteriorating trade negotiations. It is recommended to patiently wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle or late fourth quarter [8][67]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 9 - Month Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Bond Market - In September, the domestic bond market fluctuated widely under the influence of the stock market, regulatory policies, and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. Treasury futures ended the month lower. At the beginning of the month, the stock market's decline boosted bond market sentiment, but the new public - fund regulations issued on September 5 caused a significant correction in the bond market in the early part of the month. In the middle and late parts of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, but the bond market still fluctuated due to stock - market and anti - involution disturbances. The 30 - year Treasury futures had the largest adjustment, while the 5 - year Treasury futures had the smallest adjustment [11]. - The interest - rate curve steepened further in September. The long - end yields increased more, mainly due to the stock - market pressure, while the short - end was mainly affected by the new public - fund regulations, with the 2 - year variety being the most affected [14]. - The basis of Treasury futures narrowed in September. The short - end varieties were stable due to the loose funds, while the long - end basis continued to narrow, indicating that futures adjusted less than the spot [15]. 3.1.2 Overseas Market - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there may still be 50bp of cuts within the year, but there were differences among Fed members regarding the future path. The market also had a large divergence from the Fed's official view. Further interest - rate cuts may not lead to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields unless the US economy deteriorates significantly or Trump challenges the Fed's independence [18]. 3.1.3 Funding Situation - In September, the net injection of MLF and outright reverse repurchases was the same as last month, and short - term reverse repurchases were increased to support the funds. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchases at the end of the month to support cross - quarter funds [23]. - The funding rates increased seasonally at the end of the month but were not tight. The DR007 increased compared to the beginning of the month but was lower than the same period in previous years. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rates remained stable, and the overall funding situation was stable [23]. 3.2 Bond Market Environment Analysis 3.2.1 Fundamental Situation - In August, domestic economic activities further slowed down. In terms of credit expansion, the willingness of the real economy to borrow was still weak. The new social financing in August was 256.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.55 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in on - balance - sheet RMB loans. The M1 growth rate increased for five consecutive months, indicating an improvement in the activation of existing funds [34][36]. - In terms of real - economy activities, in August, the national economic activity data further slowed down. The characteristics of "supply better than demand, external demand better than domestic demand" were still obvious. Domestic demand was weak and showed marginal slowdown. Export growth slowed down, import growth declined, inflation remained at a low level, consumption continued to weaken, and investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all declined significantly [40][43]. - In September, the leading indicators continued to improve, but there were still concerns. The official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, but the new - order index representing demand increased the least. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, and the construction and service industries' prosperity declined [49]. - High - frequency indicators showed that in September, there was a supply - demand divergence. Production indicators continued to rise, while domestic - demand indicators were weak, and external demand showed resilience [52]. 3.2.2 Policy Aspect - In the short term, the possibility of additional monetary - policy easing is low. The central bank is likely to focus on implementing existing policies. Attention should be paid to the possibility of fiscal - end stimulus and the central bank restarting bond purchases, especially the possibility of issuing special Treasury bonds in the fourth - quarter NPC Standing Committee meeting [58]. 3.2.3 Funding Aspect - In October, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose. The seasonal pressure on the funding side is weaker than in September. The main risk is the possible additional issuance of government bonds, but the central bank is likely to provide hedging [60][63]. 3.3 Next - Month Market Outlook 3.3.1 Market Logic and Outlook - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. After the negatives are realized, the bond market may stabilize, but the rally may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations [67]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage**: Currently, there are no obvious positive - arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in with caution. Some non - CTD bonds of 30 - year and 10 - year bonds have reverse - arbitrage space, but there is a risk of non - convergence at maturity [68]. - **Basis Strategy**: Focus on going long on the basis of short - end contracts. As the short - end varieties may return from a premium state to a normal discount state, and the current basis is at a relatively low level in the same historical period, there may be more room for upward regression [68]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: It is not recommended to participate due to the poor liquidity of the next - quarter 03 contracts [69]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: In the short term, focus on steepening the yield curve. In October, the funding situation is expected to be stable, but the possibility of monetary easing is low, and more credit - expansion policies may lead to an increase in long - end yields [69].

Group 1 - Recent policy expectations continue to suppress bond market sentiment, with concerns over institutional redemptions remaining prevalent, leading to renewed challenges at key interest rate levels [1] - The central bank's resumption of 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicates a strong willingness to support liquidity, which has helped stabilize the bond market [1][3] - The net redemption scale of bond funds by institutions such as wealth management subsidiaries, banks, and insurance companies is at a relatively high level, particularly as the end of the quarter approaches, which may trigger negative feedback in bond fund redemptions [1] Group 2 - The current economic contradictions are primarily structural, with limited necessity for short-term interest rate cuts, although there remains room for reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter [3] - The bond market is experiencing mixed factors, with cautious sentiment prevailing and downward pressure remaining due to macroeconomic conditions and capital diversion to the stock market [5] - As the holiday approaches, market risk aversion is increasing, and institutions are opting to hold cash, leading to a potentially weak and volatile bond market [5] Group 3 - The U.S. government faces a shutdown crisis, which could impact the release of key economic data and subsequently affect market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Recent announcements of new tariffs by former President Trump are set to take effect, indicating a new phase of tariff increases that may further influence market dynamics [5]