海峡题材属于游资生态，最近确实很火。游资+高频量化博弈有鲜明的特征：高换手、烂业绩，偏小 盘。所以用OVS指标排序，很容易捕捉到游资生态的头部标的，你们可以拆解一下OVS指标的第一性原 理，我在介绍这个指标的文章中也有说过。 并没有脱离调整的框架 驼峰区的磨损足以吐尽前期获利 凸形反转持续缩量，就是危险信号 能涨就是爷，这里没有任何鄙视的意思，只是说游资生态和机构生态完全不同，甚至几乎是完全隔离 的。而且往往机构生态休息的时候，游资生态就会闹热起来。 欧马体系明显在机构生态范围内，若是做游资生态的朋友，应该很难从欧马体系学到有用的东西，即便 勉强学，也多有误解。 我所说的产业锚定和主线也是在机构生态之内，所以我几乎不提及游资生态的事物，术业有专攻，投机 的哲学并不是什么都要会，而是要敢于放弃，聚焦擅长的领域。 我不确定新的主线是哪个，最近吵吵的那些东西或许是，但肯定大多数都不是。市场还远没有调整完， 不着急下结论。回顾一下4月份单日300点暴跌之后，率先强烈反弹的既不是光连接，也不是PCB，更不 是有色，这些真正的主线都是6月份之后才陆续登台的。 机构的东西，要用慢思考。建议大家有空读读丹尼尔卡尼曼的《快思考 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大公馆） 源自：睿知睿见 11月最后一周，科技板块大幅反弹，行情能持续吗？ 1. 成交额 本周成交额缩量到1.7万亿左右。周五是1.6万亿。 距离地量的1.5万亿还差一些。 2. 换手率 中证全指的换手率下降到1.75%左右，周五是1.72%，距离1.5%还差一些。 3. 波动率 回顾一下本周的行情：从一级行业来看，本周上涨最多分别是通信8.7%；电子6.05%；传媒4.23%。 而表现不好的是偏红利的石油石化，煤炭，交运和银行。 很明显，本周是科技大幅反弹！但市场调整不会一蹴而就！所以还是要保持耐心。 一、指标跟踪 我们先看看一些数据指标处于调整的什么阶段。 波动率下降的速度比较快，今天已经达到15.68。 随着波动率的下降，市场的轮动会明显加速，追涨杀跌很容易连续亏损。因为这个时候是量化掌握主动 权。频繁操作很容易被量化收割。 市场往往会维持较长时间的低波状态才会开启下一轮行情。 4. 两融买入额占比 本周在10%左右震荡。 虽然有所下降，但距离情绪低点还有距离。 5. TMT成交额占比 当下仍然没有有效降低到30%以下。 正所谓多头不死，空头不止。 这种拥挤度，短期内不大容易再次 ...

刚刚过去的11月，是一次市场强弱的检验期，如果延续了强势，后面就可能会持续强势，如果弱势，后市就会需要面临调整。从11月整个市场的走势来 看，市场暂时没有出现新的合适的理由来延续新高。 在过去的几个月里，中国的指数可以走出行情，主要是靠科技板块的延续。现阶段市场出现了两极分化的现象，科技有预期，但是估值也很高了，其他板 块虽然价格低估值低，但是缺少再涨的预期。 所以市场在这里调整。 我们在11月的时候一直在等PPI的改善，因为这是支撑后市立马变盘的关键因素，这一点如果兑现了，其他低估值的板块就会涨上来，从而再次带动市场 指数的延续。但是在11月，我们没有等来这个，宏观经济没有出现改善，故事在现阶段就比较难继续往下讲了。 首先，我们认为行情是不会在这里贸然结束的，因为下方的支撑还很强，但是向上走，市场暂时也没有合适的理由。 后续如果再走，基本上两条路径，一个是其他低估值板块跟上行情，也就是宏观经济需要改善，或者改善预期出现，带动整个指数上行。第二条路径，就 是科技在这里调整，价格再下一些，同时后续的业绩再增长兑现，使得整个科技板块估值再稍微合理一些，然后炒下一波。 目前来看两种都有可能，但是不管是哪一种，这大概 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback due to intertwined short-term risk factors, leading to cautious capital outflows, despite stock private equity positions reaching a nearly 112-week high [1][5] - Private equity firms are adopting varied strategies in response to the high positions, with some maintaining high exposure, others using derivatives for risk hedging, and some quietly reallocating assets for future market opportunities [1][6] Group 2 - Multiple private equity firms attribute the market adjustment to a combination of internal and external factors, with a focus on changes in external environments and liquidity expectations [3] - The tightening of overseas liquidity, particularly following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has led to short-term net outflows of foreign capital, putting pressure on high-valuation technology sectors in A-shares [3][6] - Defensive behaviors from institutions cashing out profits towards year-end are expected to contribute to market volatility [3] Group 3 - As of November 14, the stock private equity position index reached 81.13%, marking a nearly 112-week high, with large private equity firms' positions nearing 90% [5] - Different private equity firms are employing distinct strategies under high positions, with some maintaining optimism about quality companies' growth despite short-term volatility [6][8] - Strategies include purchasing protective put options to hedge against market downturns and reallocating investments towards cyclical sectors while optimizing technology sector layouts [6] Group 4 - Despite short-term market pressures, leading private equity firms remain confident in the medium to long-term outlook and are actively seeking investment opportunities during the adjustment [8] - Focus areas include emerging growth sectors and cyclical industries, such as AI innovations in power construction and domestic semiconductor trends [8] - The Hang Seng Index is viewed as having reached historical low valuations, with structural opportunities in sectors like food and beverage and social services [8] Group 5 - Optimism about the market's future is reflected in the belief that major indices have returned to reasonable risk premiums after filling previous gaps, with substantial capital waiting on the sidelines [9] - The current adjustment is characterized as healthy, aiding in controlling leverage levels and optimizing trading structures [9] - Private equity firms are continuing to identify undervalued opportunities during this pullback, preparing for the next market cycle [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity tightening, presents a buying opportunity for bulls [1][25]. Market Analysis - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a significant internal market adjustment [1][4]. - The report highlights that momentum stocks peaked on October 15, coinciding with a notable rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) due to government shutdown concerns [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index reached its peak on October 29, the same day the Fed signaled a hawkish stance during its meeting [3][4]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, particularly favoring sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [3][25]. - The report suggests that the recent broad-based individual stock adjustments are a positive sign, indicating that the market correction is in its latter stages [7][25]. Liquidity Conditions - Morgan Stanley notes that high-momentum and speculative growth stocks are more sensitive to liquidity constraints, which have been tightening since mid-October [16][18]. - The report anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the government shutdown ends and the TGA balance decreases significantly in the coming weeks [18]. Employment Market Insights - Various alternative labor market indicators show signs of weakness, but not an accelerating trend, suggesting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp decline [9][10]. - The upcoming official employment data release on December 16 may create uncertainty for the Fed's decision on interest rates, potentially leading to short-term market volatility [15][25]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook report presents contrarian views, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing belief of being in a "late cycle" [19]. - The firm projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies by 2026, exceeding the consensus estimates [19][22]. - The report emphasizes that despite recent market pullbacks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a positive outlook for small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods [23][25].

Group 1 - The current market adjustment is influenced by multiple factors, including concerns over an AI bubble in the US stock market, which has led to a decline in investor sentiment [7][8][11] - The A-share market's internal dynamics, including a shift in risk appetite and a transition towards more stable dividend assets, have contributed to the recent market fluctuations [12][14] - The unexpected downturn in popular sectors, such as lithium and battery industries, has further dampened market sentiment and increased volatility [13][14] Group 2 - The A-share market is not overly reliant on a few tech giants, and its valuation levels are not significantly inflated, suggesting that concerns over the AI bubble may only cause short-term disruptions [16][18] - The core logic supporting the long-term upward trend of the A-share market remains intact, driven by policy support, industrial upgrades, and liquidity easing [19][22] - Historical data indicates that market adjustments are a normal part of the investment cycle, and the current pullback can be seen as a necessary correction within a longer-term upward trend [22][25] Group 3 - Investors are advised to calmly assess their holdings and avoid panic selling during market downturns, focusing instead on the fundamental value of their investments [28] - It is crucial to review asset allocation and ensure a balanced portfolio that includes defensive assets to withstand market volatility [29] - Long-term investors may find opportunities to gradually increase their positions in quality assets once the market stabilizes [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment appears to have established a preliminary sense of space, with strong support expected around the market's central position in late September. Future improvements in overseas liquidity expectations, reduced domestic funding pressures, and further digestion of market sentiment may lead to a healthier market environment [1]. Group 1 - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, suggesting that if there is an overshoot, it may be appropriate to increase positions [1]. - The focus for investment should be on mid-term themes, emphasizing safety margins, and paying attention to low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility [1].

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a historical pattern of limited downside after breaking below the 20-day moving average, with the current adjustment indicating that short-term downward risks have been sufficiently released [1]. Group 1: Market Behavior - After breaking below the 20-day moving average on November 17, the market has continued to adjust for 4 days, resulting in a 5% decline, which aligns with historical patterns of risk release [1]. - Historical data shows that in 99 cases of breaking below the 20-day moving average, the average subsequent decline lasted 6-7 days with a further adjustment of approximately 3% [1]. Group 2: Historical Patterns - In June, September, and October of this year, the market touched the 20-day moving average, with subsequent adjustments not exceeding 3 days and a maximum decline of 1.5%, consistent with historical trends [1]. - The analysis of past market cycles indicates that the average performance after breaking the 20-day moving average has varied, with different rounds showing different recovery rates and average gains over 5, 20, and 60 days [2].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.90% to close at 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 5.13% to 12538.07 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a weekly drop of 6.15%, closing at 2920.08 points, and fell below the 3000-point mark on November 21, with a single-day decline of 4.02% [1] - Over 5000 stocks declined on Friday, indicating a continuous sell-off trend, which has severely impacted investor confidence [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term pressures, several brokerages maintain that the long-term slow bull trend of A-shares remains unchanged [2] - Analysts suggest that the current mid-term adjustment is in its early stages, and investors should remain patient as the market faces potential downward pressure from global stock markets [2] - The long-term upward trend is expected to continue, with a potential transition into a "second phase" after the current adjustments [2] Group 3 - The market's overall resilience is noted, with long-term funds providing support, which reduces the likelihood of significant declines [3] - After a 200-point pullback, the market is expected to have a foundation for recovery, although uncertainties remain regarding global economic factors and domestic industry performance [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a core position of 50-60% and to be cautious of stocks that have risen significantly without strong earnings support [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes maintaining low positions and waiting for market stabilization signals due to recent significant market declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% and the CSI 500 Index by 5.78% [3][4] - The current market sentiment is under pressure from both domestic and international factors, including weak economic indicators in China and a negative impact from the U.S. tech sector's performance [4][5] - The recommendation is to remain cautious and maintain low positions, particularly in the main board, as there are no signs of increased institutional investment or a bottom-buying signal yet [5] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the short-term economic indicators in China are weakening, with the LPR rates remaining unchanged, which does not meet some investors' expectations [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies are seen as a significant factor in the current market adjustments, with the latest unemployment rate in the U.S. rising to 4.4%, indicating a weakening job market [4] - The technical analysis suggests that the market has not yet triggered a bottom-buying signal, and the trend has shifted to a broad decline rather than sector rotation [5]