证券研究报告 | 2025年06月21日 2025 年 5 月财政数据快评 收支两端同时走弱，财政力度指数回落 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据，全国一般公共预算收入 96623 亿元，同比下降 0.3%。其中，全国税 收收入 79156 亿元，同比下降 1.6%；非税收入 17467 亿元，同比增长 6.2%。全国一般公共预算支出 112953 亿元，同比增长 4.2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级支出 15792 亿元，同比增长 9.4%；地方 一般公共预算支出 97161 亿元，同比增长 3.4%。 一般公共预算：收支同时转弱，基建支出显著下滑 评论： 一般公共收入转弱，税收、非税收入均回落。5 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 0.1%，前值 1.9%。税 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the broad fiscal revenue turned slightly positive, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Looking ahead, both domestic and external demands are under pressure due to the fluctuating tariff policies, so incremental fiscal policies are still worth expecting [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - In April, the year - to - date tax revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time, the non - tax revenue growth rate declined, and the general budget revenue growth rate slightly increased. From January to April, the central general public budget revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the local general public budget revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [1][10]. - In terms of taxes, personal income tax and enterprise income tax had relatively high growth rates. New - quality productivity supported tax growth. The government - funded revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, which may be related to the improvement in land transactions at the beginning of the year and the lag in land transfer revenues, but its sustainability remains to be seen [2][12]. Expenditure Side - In April, the expenditure of the general public budget maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the expenditure growth rate of government - funded funds further increased, indicating that fiscal expenditure was front - loaded. Structurally, the expenditure on social sciences, culture, and education increased significantly [3][16]. - Measured by the broad deficit, fiscal efforts were intensified and were earlier than in previous years. As of April, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 2.65 trillion yuan, and the current cumulative broad deficit rate was 1.9%, higher than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and similar to that in 2020 [4][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In March, the growth of general fiscal revenue remained weak, while fiscal expenditure increased significantly. In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen in the future, including accelerating the issuance of government bonds within the budget and potentially expanding fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In March 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value -1.6%), with tax revenue down 2.2% year-on-year (previous value -3.9%) and non-tax revenue up 5.9% year-on-year (previous value 11.0%). Central general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.79% [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In March, tax revenue was down 2.2% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 4.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.1% year-on-year), domestic consumption tax increased by 9.6% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 0.3% year-on-year), corporate income tax increased by 16.0% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.4% year-on-year), and personal income tax dropped by 58.5% year-on-year. Export tax rebates increased by 8.3% year-on-year, tariffs decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, real estate-related taxes decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 63.2% year-on-year [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In March, government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.7% year-on-year), mainly due to weak land transfer revenue. From January to March, government fund revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although high-frequency land transaction data improved at the beginning of the year, the sustainability is expected to be limited [3][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure and Government Fund Expenditure**: In March, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 3.4% year-on-year), and government fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.2% year-on-year). From January to March, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and government fund expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year [3][17]. - **Fiscal Expenditure Structure**: In March, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure expenditure was low, and the increase was mainly concentrated in social and cultural education and debt interest payments. Infrastructure fiscal expenditure increased by 0.49% year-on-year, with significant differences among sub - items. Expenditure on education, social security and employment, and debt interest payments had relatively high growth rates [4][17]. Fiscal Deficit As of March, the cumulative general fiscal deficit was 2.3 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative general fiscal deficit rate is 1.6%, higher than in previous years and close to 2020, indicating increased fiscal efforts [4][25]. Future Outlook In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen. This includes accelerating the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. The subsequent Politburo meeting is an important observation window [5][30].

Core Conclusion - The article discusses the discrepancies in market expectations regarding this year's fiscal budget, particularly in terms of the scale of spending and deficit levels, highlighting that actual fiscal strength may be closer to economic growth rather than the initially projected figures [2][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Spending Growth - The projected growth of broad fiscal spending is estimated at 3.6 trillion, with a growth rate of 9.3%. However, this calculation may overestimate actual spending due to technical details, suggesting a more realistic growth of approximately 1.6 trillion, with a growth rate around 4% [2][4][5]. - Historical data indicates that the method of summing the two accounts often leads to an overestimation of broad fiscal spending by 1-2 trillion and an overestimation of growth rates by 3-10% [5][4]. Group 2: Government Debt and Deficit Rate - The new government debt is projected to increase by 2.9 trillion, which could imply a broad deficit rate increase of 2 percentage points. However, the actual increase in the deficit rate is likely to be around 1 percentage point, still reaching a historical high [8][9]. - The calculation of the broad deficit rate should consider this year's GDP rather than last year's, leading to a revised estimate of the deficit rate at approximately 8.7% [8][9]. Group 3: Evaluation of Fiscal Spending Effectiveness - The effectiveness of fiscal spending may depend more on the fiscal multiplier rather than just the capital contribution. The capital contribution for this year appears limited, with a focus on expanding special bonds for investment [14][15]. - The government is expected to adopt measures to enhance the investment multiplier, such as optimizing the management of special bonds and supporting new investment areas [15][18]. - There is a notable shift towards increasing the consumption multiplier, with a higher proportion of new bonds allocated for consumption-related projects compared to previous years [17][18].

2025 年 03 月 25 日 狭义财政支出更"用力" 宏观研究团队 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 相关研究报告 总体看，年度预算草案中预计全年税收收入增长 3.7%，前两月暂时未达到目标， 尽管个税在低基数下大幅抬升，但多数税种持平或负增；好的方面是，非税收 入退坡初步得到验证，若后续经济回升的动能增强，税收收入有望稳步改善。 2、1-2 月财政支出强度高于季节性水平。1-2 月公共财政支出 45096 亿元，同比 《基建开工仍处于历史同期低位—宏 观周报》-2025.3.23 《美联储强调不确定性，降息或将更 加灵活—3 月 FOMC 会议点评》 -2025.3.20 《生育补贴的经济账：从促生育到稳 增长—兼评 2 月经济数据》-2025.3.18 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：1-2 月，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元。政府性基 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据快评 开年财政收入承压 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部发布 2025 年 1-2 月财政收支情况，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比-1.6%。其中税收收入 36349 亿元，同比-3.9%；非税收入 7507 亿元，同比 11%。一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比 3.4%。中 央本级支出 5242 亿元，同比 8.6%；地方支出 39854 亿元，同比 2.7%。 评论： 与去年类似，开年财政收入承压，非税收入增速较 12 月大幅下滑。1-2 月收入同比-1.6%，去年实现 1.3%。 其中税收收入-3.9%，去年-3.4%。税收收入增速低于去年 12 月当月的 2.7%,显著回落；与非税收入 2024 年 ...