Group 1 - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to various policies implemented to support housing demand, leading to a narrowing decline in sales prices and inventory reduction [1][2] - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, a reduction of 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while sales revenue fell by 7.3%, narrowing by 16.3 percentage points [1] - In August, the majority of cities saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential prices, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing a decrease of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2 - Real estate companies are experiencing improvements in funding and inventory, with funding down by 8% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous years [2] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating a significant alleviation of supply-demand imbalance in the market [2] - The total scale of real estate development and market remains substantial, with urbanization continuing and a significant stock of existing housing, leading to an annual demand for approximately 7 million square meters of new construction [2][3] Group 3 - There is a growing demand for "good houses," as urbanization shifts from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement of existing housing stock [3] - The risk for real estate companies is gradually decreasing, with progress in debt restructuring for troubled firms and efforts to ensure housing delivery [3] - Continued efforts are needed to promote high-quality urban renewal and develop new models for real estate growth to ensure a stable and healthy market [3]

今年以来，各地区、各部门因城施策稳定房地产市场，出台政策推动房地产市场止跌回稳，积极促进刚 性和改善性住房需求释放。前8个月，房地产市场虽有所波动，但商品房销售价格和住宅价格同比降幅 还在收窄，去库存成效继续显现，房地产市场仍朝止跌回稳方向迈进。近期，部分城市进一步调整优化 住房政策，效果有所显现，市场交易出现改善。市场短期波动不改止跌回稳大势，我们应该对房地产市 场保持回稳势头有信心。 近期房地产市场有一定波动，但也呈现一些积极因素：房地产市场销售降幅收窄。今年以来，各地区各 部门积极支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求释放，带动商品房销售降幅收窄。1月份至8月份，全国新建商 品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅比去年同期收窄13.3个百分点，比去年全年收窄8.2个百分点。商品 房销售额下降7.3%，降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点，比去年全年收窄9.8个百分点。 新建商品住宅价格同比降幅收窄。8月份，70个大中城市中多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收 窄，其中一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄0.2个、0.4个和0.5个百分 点。 房地产企业资金和库存有所改善。从资金来源看，1月份至8 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization due to various policies aimed at promoting housing demand and addressing market fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The sales decline in the real estate market has narrowed, with new residential sales area down by 4.7% year-on-year for the first eight months, a reduction of 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The sales revenue of new residential properties decreased by 7.3%, which is a narrowing of 16.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Some first- and second-tier cities have experienced growth in new residential sales area and revenue [2] Group 2: Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices has also narrowed, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing reductions of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively in August [2] - The year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities' second-hand residential prices has decreased by 0.4 percentage points [2] Group 3: Financial and Inventory Improvements - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with funding for real estate development down by 8% year-on-year, a reduction of 12.2 percentage points compared to last year [3] - The inventory of unsold residential properties has decreased by 3.17 million square meters from July to August, marking six consecutive months of reduction [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to take time, and continued efforts are needed to promote stabilization [3] - Future strategies will focus on implementing central government policies, enhancing urban renewal, and increasing the supply of high-quality housing to better meet housing demands [3]

数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 房地产 2025 年 09 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 《新房上海持续领涨，二手房价格同 比降幅缩小 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.16 《8 月销售降幅扩大，宽松政策后一线 新 房 成 交 回 暖 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，主动适 应城市发展阶段新变化—行业周报》 -2025.9.14 新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投资同 比下降 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投 ...

华泰证券近日撰文认为，8月数据显示行业仍处于筑底企稳之中，房价同比降幅延续收窄，开发投资当 月同比降幅扩大，竣工降幅收窄，房企到位资金同比尚在下降，现金流状况仍待改善。市场全面修复尚 未到来，相对更看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复苏节奏，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新获取资源的 房企的估值修复。 【环球网财经综合报道】近日，中国房地产业协会副会长张其光表示，当前我国房地产市场正处于止跌 回稳的艰难进程中，但也有多个好的迹象值得关注，包括保交楼任务基本完成、房价特别是新房的价格 降幅在收窄、爆雷房企正在积极组织化债工作、新建商品住房的待售面积下降。 另据数据统计显示，截至今年8月末，我国新建商品房待售面积约为7.6亿平方米，较年初下降约3000万 平方米。 具体到投资建议，华泰证券继续推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的地产股，分红与业绩稳健的 头部物管公司，以及受益于香港资产重估逻辑的港股高股息REIT。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing regional differentiation, with varying demand and pricing across different areas, leading to a mixed outlook for the industry [5][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the main contract for FG.CZC glass futures had a trading volume of 1,736,649 lots and an open interest of 1,304,305 lots, indicating active market trading but insufficient bullish sentiment, resulting in a price decline [3]. - The overall glass production and sales maintained above 100, with Shihezi at 113 and Hubei at 127, while East and South China were at 108 and 103 respectively, highlighting significant regional demand differences [5]. Group 2: Supply and Production - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly glass production was 112.12 million tons, a slight increase of 0.38% from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 76.01%, up by 0.09 percentage points [6]. - The total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises was 61.58 million heavy boxes, down 2.33% from the previous week and down 14.94% year-on-year, with an inventory turnover period of 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [8]. Group 3: Demand and Orders - The demand for float glass showed some improvement, but the supply side remains relatively loose, leading to a cautious market outlook, with the peak season demand yet to be fully realized [7]. - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, an increase of 1.0% from the previous week and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in order activity [15]. Group 4: Regional Inventory Trends - By September 18, 2025, the total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises reached a new low of 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.1% from the previous period, with regional variations in inventory levels [11]. - The North China region saw a mixed inventory trend, with initial weak demand followed by a recovery as market sentiment improved, while other regions experienced varying degrees of inventory reduction [11].

对于正在经历的调整，要客观理性地看待。首先，我国城镇化从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展 从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段，房地产供求关系会发生重大变化。行业和经济基 本面发生变化，对房地产的需求也产生了影响，行业和市场出现调整、释放压力有一定的必然性。 其次，近几年房价持续调整，"房价只涨不跌"的预期被打破，住房金融属性基本褪去并回归到居住属 性。供求关系发生重大变化以及住房存量时代的到来，作为增量的新房开发、销售一定程度上会相应下 降。这既是供给端适应需求端而变化，也是供给收缩并与需求再平衡的必然结果。 再次，按目前规模推算，2025年住宅新开工5亿平方米左右，处于低位状态。考虑到存量住宅大概30% 的部分将会在未来5～10年进入到30年以上的楼龄。即便每年拆除式更新10%，也将有10亿左右的新增 住房建设量，加上住房改善升级的主旋律，行业供求两端正在向平衡靠拢，市场持续大幅下跌的可能性 并不大。 最后，不管是新市民和外来人口的刚性需求，还是新型城镇化的潜力需求，抑或是住房改善的需求，存 量改造和升级迭代的需求，房地产市场的潜力很大、韧性很强。对各地来讲，既要尊重房地产市场自身 规律，主动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious outlook with potential for stabilization in the market [2][6][41]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with new construction and sales data showing significant declines. The report highlights a downward trend in new construction area, with an August year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, reflecting a 4.8 percentage point reduction from the previous month [2][42]. - Development investment also remains under pressure, with an August year-on-year decline of 19.5%, indicating that construction intensity is weak due to ongoing challenges in the sales market [2][42]. - The report suggests that the overall investment in construction may exhibit a "W-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with a short-term expectation of no V-shaped recovery [2][42]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area adjusted for the base period was -10.6%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. The overall new housing market has shown low-level fluctuations since May [6][15]. - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales area reached 573 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [9][16]. Construction Data - The new construction area in August saw a year-on-year decline of 20.3%, continuing a downward trend. The report anticipates that new construction will show a pattern of rising and then falling in the second half of the year [2][42]. - The completion area in August also experienced a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, although it showed a slight recovery from the previous month [2][42]. Investment and Funding - The total development investment from January to August was 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [9][16]. - Funding sources for real estate projects showed a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% in August, indicating ongoing challenges in the financial landscape for real estate companies [7][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the average price of new homes in August was 9,601 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [9][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key factor influencing total demand in the housing market [41].

Core Insights - The current state of China's real estate market is in a difficult process of stabilizing after a decline, with several positive signs emerging [1][2] Group 1: Market Recovery Indicators - The task of ensuring property delivery (保交楼) is nearly complete, which has maximized the guarantee of homebuyers receiving their properties, thus avoiding impacts on social stability [1] - The decline in new home prices is slowing down, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] - The area of unsold new residential properties has decreased to approximately 760 million square meters by the end of August, down about 30 million square meters since the beginning of the year, which is a significant achievement in the current market environment [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies need to enhance their brand influence by improving housing quality, maintaining financial stability, and promoting technological innovation [2] - Since July 2021, the market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, giving consumers significant decision-making power, which companies must adapt to in order to survive and grow [2] - Companies should align their development capabilities and scale with cash flow to ensure financial stability and sustainability [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market is stabilizing due to various policies aimed at promoting housing demand and preventing price declines [1][2][4] - In August, the year-on-year decline in new residential prices narrowed across most cities, with Shanghai experiencing a price increase of 5.9% [1][2] - The sales area of new commercial housing from January to August was 57,304 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, but the decline is less severe compared to previous periods [2][3] Sales Performance - From January to August, the sales revenue of new commercial housing reached 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [2][3] - The year-on-year decline in new residential sales area has improved by 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - First and second-tier cities have shown growth in new commercial housing sales area and revenue [2] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment from January to August was 60,309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to previous values [3] - Funding for real estate development enterprises decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous years [3] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating a gradual improvement in the market [3] Market Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market requires ongoing efforts, with recent policy adjustments in major cities aimed at stimulating demand [4] - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is expected to boost market activity, particularly in core cities [4] - Future strategies will focus on high-quality urban renewal and increasing the supply of quality housing to meet resident needs [4]