文 杜丽娟 2025年，财政政策以"投资于人"为导向，将更多资金精准投向民生领域，在"幼有所育、学有所教、劳 有所得、病有所医、老有所养"等关键领域取得显著成效，为高质量发展注入持久动力。 这一政策导向并非空泛的口号，而是转化为一系列聚焦关键群体、看得见摸得着的具体举措。从生育托 育到社会保障，"一老一小"作为政策精准发力的重点群体，是2025年财政"投资于人"的生动实践。 在养老服务方面，北京丰台区获得中央专项彩票公益金711万元，资金主要用于计划建设家庭养老床位 不少于780张和提供居家养老上门服务不少于1500人次。在托育方面，四川省通过公办幼儿园资源改扩 建托班，新增托位9000个，同时推出普惠托育补助政策，对备案机构按每人每月200元给予补贴，直接 减轻家庭育儿负担。此外，中央财政还对3周岁以下婴幼儿每年发放3600元育儿补贴，自2025年秋季学 期起免除公办幼儿园学前一年保育教育费，政策惠及1200万大班儿童。 这些实践正是"投资于人"理念在基层的具象化落地，既精准回应了群众在养老、托育等领域的急难愁 盼，更通过全生命周期民生保障筑牢人力资本根基，也为后续的政策讨论奠定了坚实的现实基础。 2025 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy is at a critical juncture, facing multiple challenges such as tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions, yet China's economy shows resilience and vitality amid these challenges [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, indicating China's role as a key engine for global growth [1] Export Performance - China's exports of ice and snow sports equipment have seen significant growth, with a 37.5% increase in ski goggles exports in the first ten months of 2025 [2] - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a 3.6% year-on-year increase, with exports amounting to 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2% [2] - Emerging markets have become crucial for stabilizing foreign trade, with exports to ASEAN and the EU increasing significantly, offsetting declines in exports to the US [2][3] Export Structure and Quality - The export structure is shifting towards higher quality and value-added products, with electromechanical products accounting for over 60% of total exports, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [3] - Private enterprises are increasingly active in foreign trade, with their imports and exports reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase, making up 57.1% of total foreign trade [3] Import Trends - China's imports showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, totaling 16.75 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a weaker performance compared to exports [6] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and build a robust domestic market as a strategic priority for 2026 [6] Consumption and Domestic Demand - The central economic work conference plans to enhance consumer spending, with a potential increase in fiscal spending for consumption from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - There is a focus on improving the supply of services and products to meet the growing demand in sectors like tourism, education, and healthcare [9] Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment in China decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with manufacturing investment showing growth while infrastructure investment slowed [11] - The central economic work conference aims to stabilize investment growth, emphasizing the need for structural improvements and effective investment strategies [12][13] - Key areas for investment include urban renewal, strategic infrastructure, and major engineering projects to support economic growth [13] Conclusion - The coordinated efforts in exports, consumption, and investment are expected to drive China's economy forward, establishing a solid foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and contributing to global economic stability [14]

经观评论 张林 | 文2025年12月27日至28日召开的全国财政工作会议，明确了2026年财政工作的重点任务。其中首要任务是大力提振消费，并在"人的全面发展"领域扩 大有效投资。此前中共中央关于"十五五"规划的建议也提出，扩大内需要坚持"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合。 各领域投资增速的普遍下行，说明基础设施、制造业、房地产等传统领域已进入存量时代，进一步追加投资的空间明显收窄。与此同时，通过"投资于物"所 形成的供应能力，不仅能覆盖国内需求，也足以应对全球市场的商品需求。在中美贸易摩擦持续的背景下，2025年前11个月我国贸易顺差仍创下1万亿美元 的历史新高。"投资于物"是我国形成强大生产能力的重要原因，但是，实现这一成就并非没有代价。 第一个代价是"低价困境"：由于供给能力相对过剩，大量中低端产品价格偏低。企业为追求利润规模，往往选择扩大生产、以价换量，这又进一步压制了产 品价格。自2022年10月以来，我国PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）同比持续为负，这种循环可能制约了中低收入群体的收入增长——数据显示，PPI的变动与居 民工资性收入增速之间存在较强的相关性。 从国际比较来看，韩国、欧盟、日本制造业的人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of the Chinese economy lies in achieving a dual focus on "starry sea" innovation and "daily necessities" improvement, emphasizing the need for collaboration between technological self-reliance and enhancing people's livelihoods [1][4]. Group 1: Dual-Driven Approach - The "starry sea" represents future-oriented innovation leveraging China's industrial chain, engineer advantages, and market policies, while the "daily necessities" focus on improving livelihoods and boosting domestic demand [4][5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, reflecting the strategic importance of balancing innovation and consumption [5]. Group 2: Capital Market Role - The capital market should support both innovation and consumption, enhancing residents' consumption capacity and promoting a sustainable innovation ecosystem [6][7]. - A robust domestic demand market can provide fertile ground for technological innovation and stable profit sources, fostering a virtuous cycle of investment and returns [7]. Group 3: Market Confidence Recovery - Since September 2024, market confidence has been recovering due to a threefold awakening in policy, enterprise resilience, and capital dynamics [9]. - Policy reforms have included expansionary fiscal measures and support for consumption, signaling a commitment to development alongside security [9][10]. Group 4: Structural Reforms - Key reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include deepening the construction of a unified national market and substantial social security reforms to enhance consumer potential [10][11]. - Increasing the basic pension for farmers and migrant workers could raise household consumption's share of GDP from under 40% to around 45% by 2030, creating a $10 trillion consumption market [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Transformation - The shift from "investment in material" to "investment in people" is crucial for addressing structural issues of high savings and low consumption [13][14]. - The strategy involves increasing the proportion of state-owned capital transferred to social security funds and reallocating fiscal resources from infrastructure to social welfare [14]. Group 6: Real Estate Market Stability - To stabilize the real estate market, strategies include purchasing unsold properties for affordable housing, restructuring debts of key real estate firms, and providing interest subsidies on mortgages to alleviate buyer burdens [15].

进入高质量发展阶段，人民对美好生活的向往更加强烈，"投资于人"正是回应群众急难愁盼的现实选 择。例如，在就业创业领域，北京亦城科创公寓新增500套房源支持应届大学生实习和求职，上海"模速 空间"社区着力打造青年创业聚集地培育AI人才，广东深圳持续投入健全终身职业技能培训制度；在消 费升级方面，今年安排3000亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新，新能源汽车下乡活动蓬勃开展……这些具体 实践，让"投资于人"从理念转化为看得见、摸得着的生活改善，推动民生改善与经济发展形成良性循 环。 实现"投资于人"的价值，需要与"投资于物"紧密结合，以系统思维让基建、产业等物的投入托举人的发 展，让人的进步牵引物的迭代升级。 旧房改造、优质医疗资源下沉、育儿补贴发放……一系列民生举措的背后，都指向"投资于人"这一关键 词。 翻开"十五五"规划建议，"投资于人"的理念贯穿始终。当每个人的潜能被充分激活，每个梦想都拥有生 长土壤，汇聚起的将是推动民族复兴的磅礴力量，实现的是人民对美好生活的向往。 为什么要"投资于人"？它到底怎样改变你我的生活？今天，人民日报"壹视界"栏目和大家一起聊一聊。 [ 责编：杨煜 ] 从2023年习近平总书记提出" ...

新华社记者 投资既是当期需求，也是未来供给。扩大有效投资，是推动高质量发展的战略之举。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议强调，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"。记者在调研中感受到， 推动投资于物和投资于人互促共进，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，我国扩大有效投资潜力巨 大、空间广阔。 打开投资于物新空间 新基建，是支撑新业态、新产业、新服务发展的战略性基石，也是着力扩大有效投资的重要方面。 前不久，位于福建省厦门市湖里区的金砖数字工业智谷主体工程主体结构全面封顶。"目前在谈企业有 30家，其中6家已经落地。全部达产后，园区营收有望突破百亿元。"项目开发主体单位厦门新数科创有 限公司总经理黄长说。 眼下，贵州省铜仁市思南县花滩子水库工程建设现场，智能化机械设备轰鸣作响，工人们抓紧进行大坝 混凝土浇筑施工。 "作为国家150项重大水利工程之一，花滩子水库工程自2024年开工以来，参建各方科学规划、精心组 织，确保项目按计划高效推进，目前已经完成工程总投资过半。"贵州水投花滩子工程有限公司总经理 李保军说。 全球最大规模绿色氢氨醇一体化项目中能建松原氢能产业园项目一期投产，金上—湖北±800千伏特高 压直流输电 ...

Group 1 - Investment is both current demand and future supply, and expanding effective investment is a strategic move to promote high-quality development [2] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to combine investment in physical assets and human capital [2] - Major projects across various regions, such as the Huatanzi Reservoir in Guizhou and the world's largest green hydrogen ammonia integrated project, are progressing well, supporting stable investment [3] Group 2 - In the first 11 months of the year, fixed asset investment in China decreased by 2.6%, influenced by local government debt pressures and long-term economic transitions [4] - Excluding real estate development, project investment increased by 0.8%, with key sectors maintaining growth and emerging fields showing positive trends [4] - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative allocated 800 billion yuan to support 1,459 projects, effectively driving investment growth in related industries [4] Group 3 - New infrastructure is a strategic foundation for developing new industries and services, and it plays a crucial role in expanding effective investment [5] - Key new infrastructure projects, including low-altitude economy and AI, are progressing, contributing to high-quality development [6] - China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is only 20% to 30% of that of developed countries, indicating significant investment potential in water conservancy and municipal infrastructure [6] Group 4 - Investment in human capital is being prioritized, with projects like new school constructions in Hunan and regional medical centers in Hebei aimed at enhancing human welfare [7] - In the first 11 months, investments in electricity and water transportation sectors grew by 12.5% and 8.9%, respectively, while internet services saw a 20.7% increase [7] - The focus on human capital investment aims to drive economic growth and improve living standards through enhanced education, employment, and healthcare [7] Group 5 - The "Fifteen Five" plan anticipates constructing over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines, with an investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan [8] - The aging population and childcare services present significant investment opportunities, with the silver economy projected to exceed 30 trillion yuan by 2035 [9] - Investment in skills training and human resource development is expected to grow, as the demand for skilled labor remains high [9] Group 6 - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and effective investment [11] - Local governments are actively planning major projects to lay a foundation for future investments, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation and project scheduling [11] - Measures to stimulate private investment include establishing project reserves and addressing concerns of private enterprises to enhance investment activity [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in China's economic focus from "investment in physical capital" to "investment in human capital" as a response to the changing economic landscape and the need for improved social welfare and equity [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Development and Human Investment - Over the past four decades, China has achieved remarkable economic growth through substantial investments in physical infrastructure, leading to a comprehensive industrial system [1]. - The current economic stage necessitates a focus on "investment in people," which aims to enhance wages, employment, education, healthcare, housing, and pensions [1][3]. - The emphasis on human development reflects a recognition that economic growth alone is insufficient to address disparities in income and wealth among different social groups [5][6]. Group 2: Transition from Physical to Human Capital - Fixed asset investment in China has reached 50 trillion yuan, indicating that the previous model of heavy investment in physical capital is experiencing diminishing returns [6][8]. - As the growth rate of fixed asset investment declines, there is a clear shift towards allocating resources to improve human conditions, which is seen as a long-term investment in human capital [8]. - The balance between material capital accumulation and human capital development is crucial, with the latter gaining priority as the economy matures and capital accumulation levels are already high [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the integration of "investment in material" and "investment in people" as a new development strategy to enhance economic growth and improve people's livelihoods [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The shift from a focus on "investment in material" to a combination of "investment in material" and "investment in people" is necessary due to diminishing returns on traditional investments [2]. - Fixed asset investment in the first 11 months of the year decreased by 2.6%, highlighting the urgency to stabilize investment and combine both types of investment [1]. Group 2: Employment and Social Support - Employment stability is prioritized, with actions to support key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, and to encourage flexible employment [3]. - Policies are expected to include expanding special loans for job stability and providing subsidies to companies that hire unemployed youth [3]. Group 3: Healthcare and Elderly Care - The government plans to enhance long-term care insurance and increase basic pension levels for urban and rural residents, with a potential increase of 50 yuan or more by 2026 [4]. - Reforms in healthcare, including optimizing drug procurement and improving reimbursement methods, are set to be implemented [4]. Group 4: Financial Support and Collaboration - Fiscal policies will focus on supporting both "material" and "people" investments through special bonds and public-private partnerships (PPP) in sectors like elderly care and childcare [4]. - The collaboration between government and social capital is crucial to lower barriers for private sector participation in social projects [4]. Group 5: Systemic Coordination - A systemic approach is necessary to connect "improvement of livelihoods," "release of domestic demand," and "economic growth," ensuring resources effectively benefit the population [5]. - The focus on enhancing human welfare and capabilities is expected to lay a solid foundation for China's modernization by 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent national medical security work conference aims to achieve "essentially no cost for childbirth" by next year, emphasizing the importance of "investing in people" as a shift from traditional "investing in material" approaches, which is expected to enhance public well-being and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People vs. Investment in Material - "Investment in people" is proposed as a complement to "investment in material," reflecting a shift in focus from physical assets to human development, which is crucial for unlocking the potential of over 1.4 billion people in China [1][2]. - The central economic work conference highlights the need to combine both investments, recognizing that material investment provides the necessary infrastructure while human investment activates economic growth through enhanced consumption and human capital [2][3]. Group 2: Practical Examples and Implementation - Examples from Jiangsu province illustrate successful integration of both investment types, such as the Nanjing Electromechanical Vocational Technical College's collaboration on the "Nanjing" satellite project, which combines resource investment in infrastructure with human talent development [2][3]. - The popularity of the "Su Chao" football event demonstrates how investment in sports infrastructure and a people-centered approach can drive public health and create new consumption opportunities, showcasing the benefits of combining both investment strategies [3][4]. Group 3: Systematic Thinking and Future Directions - A systematic approach is essential for aligning investments in material and human capital, ensuring that both are included in national economic and social development plans, while maintaining a balance between the two [3][4]. - The focus should be on high-end, intelligent, and green material investments, alongside targeted human capital development to address talent shortages in industries, fostering a cycle of economic growth and improved living standards [3][4].