Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a general recovery in European financial markets, France is experiencing a decline in investor confidence due to structural political and economic challenges [1][4][6] - France's bond and stock markets are underperforming compared to other European countries, with the CAC40 index showing a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, lagging behind the European Stoxx 600's 8.3% and Germany's DAX index's 23.3% [3][4] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds remains around 70 basis points, significantly higher than the 50 basis points before the political turmoil in June 2022, indicating a lack of investor confidence in French assets [2][4] Group 2 - France's public debt reached €3.3 trillion last year, surpassing Italy's by approximately €300 billion, with projections indicating it could rise to about €3.35 trillion by Q1 2025, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% [4][5] - The political fragmentation in France has hindered effective fiscal policy, with the government unable to secure a majority in parliament, resulting in a lack of decisive action to address budget deficits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that unless France can implement significant fiscal reforms, investor confidence is unlikely to improve, with some indicating the possibility of needing assistance from the International Monetary Fund if fiscal control is not established [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant uncertainty for the ruling coalition, with potential implications for market volatility and stock performance as various polls indicate a risk of losing majority seats [1][2][4]. Group 1: Election Impact on Market - Historical data suggests that when the ruling party loses majority seats in the Senate, the stock market typically declines [2]. - The scale of the ruling coalition's loss will directly influence market reactions, with different scenarios outlined based on the election outcome [9]. - If the ruling coalition maintains its majority, Prime Minister Kishida will continue to govern, but the stability of the House of Representatives remains in question [9]. Group 2: Political Stability Concerns - There is a notable concern regarding the potential resignation of Prime Minister Kishida if the ruling coalition loses its majority, which could lead to a more fluid political situation [4][5]. - The probability of Kishida stepping down by 2025 is perceived as significant, reflecting deep market concerns about political stability [5]. Group 3: Corporate Governance Challenges - The election outcome may challenge corporate governance reforms, as left-wing parties oppose current reforms and right-wing parties call for stricter regulations [10]. - Key issues include proposals for increased taxes on large corporations and high-net-worth individuals, as well as a reevaluation of shareholder-focused governance models [10]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Economic Policy - The Senate election results will also impact the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with the ruling coalition likely to avoid making concessions during the election period [11][12]. - If the ruling coalition remains in power, clarity on tariff negotiations may emerge post-election; however, significant changes in government could delay agreements further [13].

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that concerns regarding political uncertainty have not increased and should not impact government spending and trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor emphasized that the current political landscape does not pose heightened risks to economic stability [1] - Government spending is expected to remain unaffected by political uncertainties, indicating a stable fiscal environment [1] - Trade negotiations are also anticipated to proceed without disruption, reflecting confidence in ongoing economic policies [1]

Group 1 - The Thai political turmoil has provided a temporary respite for the market, but underlying economic concerns continue to make investors cautious [1] - The SET index has seen a year-to-date decline of over 20%, making it one of the worst-performing stock markets globally [1] - The Thai economy is facing three main pressures: unresolved trade negotiations with the U.S., delays in the new fiscal budget and economic stimulus plans, and a significant drop in foreign tourist numbers [1][4] Group 2 - As of June, foreign institutional investors have net sold Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total withdrawal of $3.9 billion [4] - The exit of the second-largest ruling party from the coalition government has led to further capital outflows from the Thai bond market, totaling $324 million [4] - Despite a potential valuation opportunity with the SET index trading at a 24.5% discount to its five-year average P/E ratio of 11.7, professional institutions remain cautious due to the dual pressures of political chaos and economic weakness [4] Group 3 - The Thai baht has shown signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar, indicating that market sentiment has not fundamentally improved [5] - The ongoing political deadlock and the need for structural reforms are likely to keep Thailand's economy in a state of uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Thailand is expected to further limit the government's ability to revive the economy, as stated by analysts and economists from Deutsche Bank [1] Group 1: Political Situation - The suspension of the Prime Minister has triggered new political resistance, hindering the government's capacity to respond to external risks through fiscal support [1] - The ruling coalition has lost its second-largest party, resulting in a fragile majority in parliament [1] - Legal issues faced by the Prime Minister and her father may open the door for political opposition and new elections [1]

交易商表示，对1-2周到期的美元看跌期权的需求特别强劲。对美元看跌期权的需求表明，交易员将美 元下行视为需要对冲的关键风险。 日元 随着美元的急剧贬值，市场避险情绪上升，增加了日元等避险货币的吸引力，日元表现强劲。 欧洲交易时段，美元兑日元汇率跌至144.00下方。在美国总统特朗普宣布将提名鲍威尔的继任者后，美 元兑日元进一步下跌超过0.8%，接近143.75。 日本政府计划将2025年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测从之前的1.2%下调至1%以下，主要原因是美 国关税政策带来的全球贸易风险增加，这对日本经济构成了挑战。 澳元 新华财经北京6月26日电欧洲交易时段，美元指数因围绕美联储未来决策可信度的不确定性而受到打 击，创下约97.00的三年新低。美元指数亦跌破97.000，达到2022年2月以来的最低水平。 特朗普对鲍威尔的批评加剧了市场的担忧，认为新的美联储主席可能会优先考虑总统的经济议程而非传 统的双重使命（即维持物价稳定和促进充分就业）。 全球风险资产则延续强势，MSCI全球股指年内涨幅逼近8%，欧元兑美元升至1.173的三年高位，瑞郎 触及十年高点。 市场情绪受三重因素驱动：美联储提前换帅传闻强化 ...

高盛：政治不确定性可能促使泰国央行按兵不动 金十数据6月24日讯，高盛在一份报告中说，泰国央行周三可能会维持政策利率不变。经济学家Hui Shan和分析师Chelsea Song预计，央行将采取"观望"的态度，同时保留其有限的财政空间。他们指出， 国内政治不确定性上升，美国可能在未来几周内单方面宣布关税。根据美国暂时暂停的互惠关税，泰国 将面临36%的关税。高盛仍预计，在今年剩余时间里，泰国央行将再次降息50个基点。 ...

瑞银：受政治不确定性影响，将泰国股市评级下调至中性。 ...

该行指出，日本央行自2025年5月货币政策会议(MPM)以来立场未发生显著调整，核心延续"谨慎观 望"基调。行长植田和男6月3日听证及公开演讲中多次强调，"无强行加息意图"且"无需急于调整利 率"，明确否定"为未来降息空间而提前加息"的市场猜测。 这一表态通过抑制市场对政策转向的过度预期，压低日元利率上行预期。尽管美国宣布降低对华关税， 但央行认为外部贸易环境改善对日本经济的提振作用尚未在通胀与就业数据中充分显现，当前仍需等 待"经济与物价改善的可持续性得到验证"才会考虑政策正常化。 购债计划方面，市场对2026年4月后是否停止购债缩减存在分歧：部分投资者预期央行可能放缓缩减步 伐(如路透6月4日报道提及的"考虑降低缩减节奏")，但植田表态"多数市场参与者支持延续缩减"且"许多 人认为央行从 2026 年 4 月起继续减少购债是合适的"，这些言论或许表明短期内政策转向概率较低，央 行目前并未将停止缩减购债视为主要选项之一。 瑞穗此前预测，日本央行有可能最终将每月购债规模最终降至1-2万亿日元，目前认为最可能的结果 是，央行将试图通过以下方式抑制这一方向：继续以较大幅度削减购债规模(以日元金额计)，同时通过 不 ...