Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty has become a focal point for the market, particularly following the dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, which has led to volatility in the stock market and currency exchange rates [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the rise of the Japanese stock market, which reached historical highs above 47,000 and 48,000 points with a peak increase of 5%, the situation changed dramatically after the announcement of the dissolution of the ruling coalition [2][3]. - The Nikkei index futures experienced a significant drop of 5% on the day of the coalition's dissolution, indicating a sharp market reaction to the political developments [7]. Group 2: Political Landscape - The formal dissolution of the "Self-Public Coalition" has created uncertainty regarding the prospects of Sanna Takachi becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, as the election process involves a two-round voting system in the National Diet [3][5]. - The current seat distribution in the House of Representatives shows the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holding 196 seats, while the now-independent Komeito Party has 24 seats, and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has 148 seats [5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - Analysts suggest that if Takachi fails to secure the Prime Minister position, it could delay the submission of the supplementary budget to the National Diet, significantly impacting economic stimulus policies planned for the fourth quarter [8]. - The market's perception of Takachi's economic policies has shifted, with concerns about extreme fiscal expansion being deemed overstated, as her stance has moved towards a more moderate and conservative approach [7].

Core Viewpoint - The potential dissolution of the ruling coalition between the Komeito Party and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) poses significant uncertainty for Japan's political and legislative agenda, particularly affecting the newly appointed Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's ability to push through budget proposals and legislation [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Komeito Party leader Tetsuo Saito expressed intentions to "break away from the ruling coalition framework," indicating a significant shift in Japan's political landscape [1] - The failure to reach an agreement on party funding rules during discussions between Saito and Takashi raises concerns about Komeito's support in the upcoming prime ministerial election [1] - Analysts suggest that despite losing Komeito's backing, Takashi is likely to become the next Prime Minister due to the LDP's majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The breakdown of the coalition has led to increased volatility in the Japanese yen and a decline in the Nikkei 225 index futures, with market participants anticipating further fluctuations in the yen, Japanese government bonds, and the stock market amid political uncertainty [1] - Wells Fargo's Chidu Narayanan noted that the political turmoil could pressure Japanese assets, with the potential for larger fiscal expansions negatively impacting government bonds and the yen [2] - Market analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index may retreat to around 45,000 points due to the combination of political instability and external factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The political instability is expected to weaken Takashi's economic policy influence, potentially leading to policy concessions from the LDP [3] - Analysts from various firms express a cautious outlook on the Japanese stock market, indicating that while long-term prospects remain positive, short-term corrections may occur until the leadership situation stabilizes [3]

Core Points - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has triggered a political crisis, leading to increased financial market volatility and concerns among investors [1][2][3] Financial Market Impact - Following the resignation, French 10-year government bond yields surged over 0.1 percentage points, surpassing 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 Eurozone crisis [2] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to over 10 basis points, reaching approximately 89 basis points, the highest since January [2] - The CAC 40 index in Paris dropped about 2%, falling below the critical 8000-point mark, with significant declines in the banking sector [3] Economic Concerns - France's public debt reached €3.4 trillion, with a budget deficit rate exceeding 5.4%, both among the highest in the EU [3][4] - Political instability has led to a decline in investor confidence, with predictions of a 0.3% loss in economic growth for 2025 due to the ongoing crisis [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding the 2026 budget proposal poses a significant challenge for the government, as failure to pass it could lead to temporary funding measures [4] Broader Implications for the Eurozone - The political turmoil in France has negatively impacted the euro, with the exchange rate against the dollar dropping significantly [7][8] - Analysts express concerns that the ongoing instability could jeopardize the entire Eurozone's economic stability, as France is a key player in the region [8] - The crisis adds to existing challenges in the EU, including slow economic growth and high borrowing costs, making it difficult to attract investment [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is raising concerns about political uncertainty in the market [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. political strategist, Alec Phillips, believes the deadlock will likely end with some form of concession from Trump, leading to a temporary reopening of the government [1][3] - The probability of the government shutdown lasting at least another 10 days has risen to 75% according to Polymarket [1] Group 1: Government Shutdown Dynamics - The government shutdown may last for several weeks but is unlikely to extend beyond the military pay date of October 15, as missing military salaries has never been allowed [2][3] - Phillips anticipates that the House and Senate will vote every couple of days, with the key issue being how many Democrats will shift their stance to support reopening the government [2] - Currently, three Democrats have shown willingness to support reopening, with five more needed for a majority [2] Group 2: Healthcare Subsidy Legislation - The expiration of healthcare subsidy legislation is a critical issue, with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) set to announce premium increases on November 1 [3] - Democrats are pushing to include the extension of these subsidies in the spending bill, while Republicans favor a "clean" extension without additional conditions [3] - Goldman Sachs notes that even if a bipartisan compromise is reached, Republicans may later attempt to roll back spending through a simple majority vote, undermining trust in any agreements made [3]

Core Points - The Paris stock market experienced a significant decline due to political turmoil in France, with the CAC40 index dropping as much as 2.1% before closing down 1.36%, falling below the 8000-point mark [1] - The resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, which occurred shortly after the announcement of a new government, triggered widespread criticism and heightened political tensions, marking the shortest tenure for a Prime Minister in the history of the Fifth Republic [1] - The financial sector was particularly hard hit, with major banks like Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas seeing declines of 4.23%, 3.43%, and 3.21% respectively [1] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that French bank stocks are highly sensitive to changes in domestic debt financing costs, with a notable increase in sovereign bond yields putting pressure on these stocks [1] - Following Le Cornu's resignation, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose from 3.51% to 3.61%, before settling at 3.57% [1] - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widened to 0.85 percentage points, significantly higher than the approximately 0.5 percentage points observed before President Macron's planned dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 [1][2]

Core Insights - Gold prices reached an all-time high of $3,966 per ounce, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets amid political uncertainties in the U.S. and abroad [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold futures increased by 1.5%, surpassing the $3,900 per ounce mark for the first time in history, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a protective asset [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as investors seek stability in uncertain times [2] Group 2: Political Factors - The resignation of France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after less than a month has added to the political instability in Europe, further influencing investor sentiment towards gold [2] - President Emmanuel Macron's inability to form a government capable of addressing France's growing deficit has created additional political uncertainty, prompting investors to flock to gold [2]

Group 1 - The political crisis in France has intensified with the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu just one day after President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new cabinet, leading to strong reactions from various parties [1][3] - Investors are reacting to the political uncertainty by selling French government bonds, causing the 10-year bond yield to rise by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and widening the spread between French and German bonds to over 89 basis points, the highest since the end of 2024 [1] - The CAC40 index in France fell by 2% during the day, while the Italian FTSE MIB index decreased by 0.25% and the European Stoxx 600 index dropped by 0.28% [3] Group 2 - The leader of the French Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, stated that Macron's ruling coalition has "collapsed" and the new government has "lost legitimacy," indicating an unprecedented political crisis [3] - Lecornu faces challenges similar to his predecessors, needing to push through a budget plan that includes spending cuts and tax increases to control the largest deficit in the Eurozone [3] - Analysts predict that the current situation is leaning towards triggering new elections, with expectations that the bond spread may rise and test 100 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a rebound, with silver leading the gains, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for continued interest rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for two more cuts this year [1] - The dollar index rose, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's stance on monetary policy [1] Political Uncertainty - The failure of the Republican funding bill in the House of Representatives to pass in the Senate has heightened the risk of a government shutdown, increasing market volatility [1] - Ongoing political interventions, including a request for a response from a Federal Reserve official to former President Trump, continue to disrupt expectations of monetary policy independence [1] Geopolitical Factors - The European Union has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, contributing to market uncertainty [1] - In the Middle East, discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine by multiple countries are intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, which is raising risk aversion among investors [1] Market Sentiment - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of monetary policy easing expectations, political and geopolitical uncertainties, and bullish sentiment from institutions is providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3,550 and may test the $3,800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, has the potential to rise towards $45 after breaking the $43 mark [2] - Overall, any pullbacks in gold and silver prices are viewed as opportunities for positioning, as both metals remain in a long-term bull market [2]

一场可能动摇土耳其政治格局的司法大戏，周一获得推迟，为市场带来暂时喘息机会。 9月15日，针对主要反对党共和人民党（CHP）在2023年党代会期间，部分党员收受现金贿赂的指控，土耳其法院决定将 该案推迟至10月24日再审。该案的结果将挑战2023年党代会的合法性，并直接关系到现任党主席Ozgur Ozel的去留。 分析师普遍认为，这仅仅是"将皮球踢到了路的另一边"，核心风险并未解除。此案被广泛视为总统埃尔多安及其执政党对 反对派持续施压的一部分，尤其是在反对党于地方选举中取得重大胜利之后。 随着政治紧张局势暂时降温，土耳其里拉资产应声上涨。伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数收盘大涨6.1%，创下自2023年5月 以来的最大单日涨幅，几乎收复本月以来的全部失地。 （伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数日内走势） 短暂的喘息与挥之不去的风险 法院的延期决定，为投资者提供了数周的"安慰期"。 正如三菱日联银行的资金主管Onur Ilgen所言： 这可能是暂时的，但至少会提供几周的安慰。 周一伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数收于11000.26点，逼近8月26日创下的历史收盘高位。作为国家风险指标的土耳其信用 违约互换（CDS） ...

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member states plan to issue over €100 billion in new bonds in September, raising concerns about supply excess and higher required yields from investors [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France's government facing a confidence vote, have exacerbated fiscal concerns and widened the yield spread between French and German bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths and leading to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, reflecting the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict [3] - The inflation data released for the Eurozone showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning of potential inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal expansion [4] - Market expectations indicate that the ECB is unlikely to take further action this year, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly related to the U.S. labor market, is expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips may be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]