Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of liquidity, tightening the loose state of market liquidity and causing market interest rates to rise. Since July, due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and positive macro - economic expectations, market interest rates have gradually increased. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for further upward movement of market interest rates is limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. But the LPR remained unchanged in July, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On July 24, 2025, the central bank announced that on July 25, it will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid manner. - On July 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating interest rate of 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will determine its policy interest rate based on actual inflation and expected inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Central Bank emphasizes a data-driven approach to setting interest rates, focusing on both current and anticipated inflation levels [1]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "dummy" for maintaining high interest rates, which he believes are detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump stated that Powell will leave his position in eight months, specifically by mid-March, although it is unclear why this timeframe was chosen [2] - Economists warned that efforts to push the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy could backfire, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Trump emphasized that the economy is strong, but high interest rates are making housing unaffordable for many [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve lowering policy rates by 1 percentage point last year, mortgage rates have increased, following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Concerns were raised about the Federal Reserve's mission being misaligned, with criticism directed at the spending on new buildings and renovations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, aligning with market expectations. This marks the second consecutive month of stable rates following a 10 basis point reduction in May [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Dongfang Jincheng noted that after the implementation of monetary easing tools in May, the focus has shifted to observing the effectiveness of these policies, leading to insufficient motivation for banks to lower LPR and policy rates further [3]. - The economic performance in the second quarter has been stable yet strong, reducing the immediate necessity for further LPR adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [3]. - The stability of policy rates over the past two months indicates that factors influencing LPR adjustments have not changed significantly, justifying the unchanged LPR rates in July [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, analysts expect the LPR to remain stable in the short term as the market enters a policy observation phase. However, there is potential for future reductions in LPR as the external environment remains uncertain and efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [3]. - The anticipated impact of external fluctuations on exports is expected to manifest more significantly in the second half of the year, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may lead to further reductions in LPR [3]. - The next potential adjustment of the LPR is projected to occur around the beginning of the fourth quarter [3].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

哈萨克斯坦央行将政策利率维持在16.5%不变。符合市场预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, indicated that four members of the monetary policy committee may consider interest rate cuts within the next three months, while two members expect the policy rate to remain unchanged during the same period [1] Group 1 - The possibility of interest rate cuts is being discussed among four members of the monetary policy committee [1] - Two members of the committee anticipate that the policy rate will stay the same over the next three months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach while monitoring inflation trends [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the current forecast suggesting a potential decline from 2.9% to a range of 2%-3% [2]. - The inflation rate in Australia for May was reported at 2.1%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [2]. - The RBA noted that while some sectors report weak demand, private domestic demand is gradually recovering, and real household income has improved [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The decision to hold rates steady surprised financial markets, as economists had anticipated a 25 basis point cut to 3.6% [5]. - Following the RBA's announcement, the Australian dollar rose by 0.79%, and the yield on the 3-year government bonds increased by 5 basis points to 3.42% [5]. - The S&P ASX200 index fell by 0.24% after the RBA's decision [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The RBA emphasized the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, indicating that it will closely monitor economic data and risks to guide future decisions [4]. - Market expectations suggest that unless the second-quarter inflation data significantly exceeds forecasts, the RBA may still consider rate cuts in its next meeting in August [5].

意外！ 7月8日，澳大利亚央行宣布维持3.85%政策利率不变，并暗示将采取观望政策。该行强调正在等待更多信息，"以确认通 胀率仍有望在可持续的基础上达到2.5%"。 为何按兵不动？ 澳大利亚央行在声明中表示，通货膨胀自2022年见顶以来已大幅下降，高利率让总需求和总供给更接近平衡。目前预测 的潜在通胀将从2.9%下降到2%—3%范围。数据显示，澳大利亚5月份的通胀率为2.1%，是2024年10月以来的最低水 平。 澳大利亚央行认为，世界经济的不确定性仍然很高。虽然美国政府最终实施的关税以及其他国家的反应仍然未知，但金融 市场价格已经按照预期反弹。目前来看，最极端的结果有可能被避免，但全球贸易的不确定性预计将对全球经济活动产生 不利影响。 除此之外，虽然一些行业的企业继续报告说需求疲软使其难以通过成本增加到最终价格，但澳大利亚国内的私人需求正在 逐渐恢复，实际家庭收入有所回升，一些财务压力指标也有所缓解。此外，各种指标表明劳动力市场状况仍然紧张。 澳大利亚央行强调，保持价格稳定和充分就业是当务之急，未来将密切关注各项经济数据并不断评估风险，以指导其决 策。将密切关注全球经济和金融市场的发展趋势，包括国内需求，以 ...