Core Viewpoint - A significant majority of economists, 93%, believe that the Bank of Japan's plans for interest rate hikes will not be delayed even if the Federal Reserve lowers rates [1] - Approximately 96% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting in September 2025 [1] Group 1 - 93% of economists think the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans remain unaffected by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - 96% of economists predict the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate at 0.5% in September 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Mingpai Jewelry remains unchanged at 1009 yuan per gram as of August 29, 2025, compared to the previous trading day [1] - The platinum price is not provided in the report, indicating a focus solely on gold pricing [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's Waller indicates that the underlying inflation rate is close to 2% when excluding temporary tariff impacts [2] - The policy interest rate is considered "moderately restrictive," expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above the neutral rate [2] - There is no expectation for a significant rate cut in September unless the August employment report shows substantial economic weakness while inflation remains well-controlled [2] - Waller expresses a stronger inclination towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3-6 months [2] - There is a noted weakening in labor demand, which poses risks to the labor market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine the direction of policy rates [1]. - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual policymakers perceive the current policy as overly tight [1]. - George believes that while the policy is slightly tight, the Fed is on the right path [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Recent data shows that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months, with evidence that businesses can pass some rising import costs onto consumers [1]. - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down during the summer, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for three consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three months [1] - The stability in LPR suggests a cautious approach by the central bank in response to current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, macroeconomic data showed a downward trend in July, with potential external demand slowdown ahead [1] - There is an expectation for future policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which may create room for a reduction in policy rates and LPR quotes [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3.0% and for 5 years and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months since a decline in May [1] - Experts indicate that the macroeconomic environment has stabilized in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for further LPR adjustments in the short term [1] - Current loan rates for enterprises and individuals are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] Group 2 - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year is reported at 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [2] - Experts believe there is still potential for LPR to decrease further, especially in the context of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, with expectations of a potential 10 basis points reduction in LPR by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations and reflecting stable policy rates [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Quotation Analysis - The unchanged LPR quotations for August indicate a lack of significant changes in the pricing basis, as the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has remained stable [2]. - The continuous stability of LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for immediate downward adjustments [2][3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - There is potential for a downward adjustment in policy rates and LPR quotations in the fourth quarter, driven by efforts to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [3][4]. - The central bank may implement new rounds of interest rate cuts, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and households, thereby boosting internal financing demand [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Implications - Enhanced policies to stabilize the real estate market are anticipated, with expectations for a targeted reduction in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations and reflecting stable policy rates since May [2][4]. Group 1: LPR and Market Conditions - The LPR has maintained stability for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a lack of immediate necessity for further reductions [2][4]. - Current loan rates for enterprises and residents are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4]. Group 2: Financial Institutions and Regulatory Environment - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, suggesting limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4]. - Future adjustments to policy rates and LPR quotes may have room for reduction as efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2][2]. Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR quotations for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repurchase rate) throughout the month, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for LPR [2][2]. - Market interest rates have recently risen, influenced by factors such as anti-involution trends, which has reduced the motivation for banks to lower the LPR quote further, especially given the historically low net interest margins [2][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Expectations - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is fundamentally attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments to strengthen counter-cyclical regulation [2][2]. - Industry experts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in LPR quotations [2][2].

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，未来在大力提振内需、巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势过程中，政策利率 及LPR报价有下调空间。 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR 为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均与上期持平。这是LPR自今年5月下降以来，连续三个月维持不变。 图片来源：人民银行网站 从融资成本看，目前，企业和居民贷款利率已处于较低水平，今年以来又进一步下行。央行数据显示，7月 新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个基点和30个基 点。专家认为，社会综合融资成本呈现不断下降的趋势，在此背景下LPR下降并非当务之急，必要性不足。 此外，金融监管总局发布的最新数据显示，上半年商业银行净息差为1.42%，较一季度微降0.01个百分点。 这表明净息差仍处在低位，银行缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 专家分析，由于政策利率保持平稳，本月LPR定价基础未发生改变，LPR保持不变符合市场预期。央行在5 月加大逆周期调节力度，出台一揽子金融支持举措，其传导和成效也需要观察。 ...