Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester market is in a weak and volatile state in the short - term due to the off - season of demand. Multiple plant maintenance delays have led to an expected increase in supply in July. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies. - For PTA, it is advisable to conduct basis positive spreads, reverse calendar spreads, and the unilateral trend is weakly volatile. Take profit on the long PX and short PTA strategy. - For MEG, conduct basis and calendar positive spreads, and avoid shorting based on valuation. Consider going long on dips for the unilateral position. [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral trend of PX is weak, and the calendar spreads are also weakening. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the gasoline cracking spread has declined, leading to weaker aromatics blending demand. Aromatic prices show a differentiated trend, with toluene and pure benzene prices weak, while PX prices are strong, and disproportionation profits have recovered. [20][26][43] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PX has slightly decreased. In June, the domestic production of PX rebounded to 319 tons, and the operating rate this week was 81% (-2.8%). The import volume in May rebounded to 77.3 tons. The monthly inventory in June decreased to 435 tons (-16). [55][64][83] 3.2 PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis of PTA has dropped significantly as spot traders have exited basis trades. The 9 - 1 calendar spread continues to focus on reverse spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased to a low level. The cost has risen, the profit of PX has declined, and the profit of PTA has remained at a low level. [95][97][102] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PTA has remained stable. In June, the production volume was 629 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 27 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June - July. The social inventory last week was 215 (-5) tons, and the de - stocking slope has slowed down. [107][113][129] 3.3 MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation of MEG is in a volatile state, and the calendar spreads have declined. The profits of each production link have weakened month - on - month, and the MTO and ethylene - imported ethylene glycol production are suffering severe losses. [140][148] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of MEG has decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in July is expected to remain in the 66 - 70% range. The import volume in May was 60 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June. The inventory is at a low level. [156][160][167] 3.4 Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - No specific valuation and profit information is provided in the report. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of polyester is 90.2% (-0.6%). The production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of polyester filament has increased significantly. [171][177][179] 3.5 Terminal: Weaving, Clothing No specific information is provided in the report.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive outlook for single - side price, long PX short SC, long PX short PTA to continue holding, month - spread positive set [5][6] - PTA: Single - side slightly bullish in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit, month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - MEG: Single - side stable in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX: Supply continues to shrink, maintaining a tight - balance de - stocking pattern in July. Asian operating rate will decline further. PTA demand is stable with a slight increase. Single - side price is expected to be strong and month - spread is mainly positive set [5] - PTA: Cost is supported, but month - spread is under pressure. Supply - demand will shift from rapid de - stocking to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis should be reverse - set at high [5][6] - MEG: Supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but imports are increasing. Polyester plants have many production - cut plans. Cost support has recovered, and shorting is not recommended [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Closing Prices and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 6752, 4778, 4271, 6526, and 3600 respectively, with daily changes of 0.4%, 0.2%, - 0.5%, - 0.4%, and - 2.5% [2] - **Month - spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 had month - spreads of 206, 172, - 43, 92, and - 421 respectively, with daily changes of 8, - 2, - 9, - 20, and 168 [2] - **Inter - variety Spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 had spreads of 389, 507, - 1624, 939, and 1178 respectively, with daily changes of - 12, 30, 64, - 50, and 31 [2] - **Basis and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were 281, 270, 65, 124, and 283 respectively, with daily changes of - 30, 15, - 7, 36, and no change [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 35022, 5847, 5464, 0, and 5911000 respectively, with daily changes of - 930, - 100, no change, - 1805, and no change [2] 2. Market Overview - **PX**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in a Japanese factory has unexpectedly shut down for maintenance, expected to last about a month. A domestic mainstream supplier's July PX contract advance payment is 7250 yuan/ton (acceptance), and PTA is 5300 yuan/ton [4] - **PTA**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown on June 9 [4] - **MEG**: On June 27, the spot and futures prices of MEG are provided, along with the monthly settlement reference price and average price [4] - **Polyester**: On June 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% [4] 3. Market Views - **PX**: Supply contraction, tight - balance de - stocking in July. Asian operating rate to decline. PTA demand stable with a slight increase. Single - side price expected to be strong, month - spread positive set [5] - **PTA**: Cost supported, but month - spread under pressure. Supply - demand to shift to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - **MEG**: Supply decreased due to maintenance, imports increasing. Polyester production - cut plans. Cost support recovered, shorting not recommended [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - For PX and PTA, due to cost collapse and valuation decline, a monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, and holding long PX and short PTA positions is advised. PTA is entering a pattern of inventory accumulation as new installations are put into operation and polyester factories cut production [11]. - MEG's upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, MEG is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly, mainly influenced by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [12]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to high supply and a supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, fundamental pressure remains high [19]. - Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, affected by factors such as production volume, inventory, and oil price fluctuations [20]. - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel and weak demand, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - PP's spot price is falling, but low - price transactions are relatively good. The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound as the near - month contract subsidizes the premium. In the second half of the year, the pattern of high profits and high production will continue to affect it [43]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate, influenced by factors such as market supply and demand and inventory [47]. - Glass's original sheet price is stable, with most downstream enterprises purchasing on demand and the market in a wait - and - see state [53]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as spot price, inventory, and trading volume [56]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to speculative factors. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [61]. - Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the second half of the year, due to increased supply and weak demand, the high - profit state is difficult to maintain [64]. - Soda ash's spot market has little change, with weakening prices and general downstream demand [68]. - LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening, affected by factors such as futures prices, spreads, and industrial chain operating rates [73]. - PVC's trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit [85]. - Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market reaching a phased high [90]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly, affected by factors such as futures prices, freight rates, and exchange rates [92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PX's main contract closed at 6758, PTA's at 4790, and MEG's at 4323. The daily changes were 0.0%, 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 206, PTA (9 - 1) was 178, and MEG (9 - 1) was - 14 [5]. - **Market Overview**: PX prices fell on the 25th, following the decline of upstream crude oil. The downstream polyester market provided limited support. Some PTA producers considered reducing their operating rates. However, the increase in PTA production capacity in the second half of the year may support PX prices [8]. - **Market Outlook**: PX and PTA are recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG's upside space is limited, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. 2. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the rubber's main contract's daily - session closing price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,733 lots, and the open interest was 156,038 lots [14]. - **Industry News**: As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 128.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,225 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,768 lots and an open interest of 52,975 lots [17]. - **Industry News**: As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [17]. - **Market Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face fundamental pressure in the medium term [19]. 4. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, BU2507 closed at 3,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and BU2508 closed at 3,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% [21]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery's planned production volume was 148.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. As of June 23, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.0% [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [20]. 5. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, L2509 closed at 7,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The 09 - contract basis was 9, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 47 [35]. - **Market Situation**: The LLDPE market price partially declined. The futures market was weak, and the demand side was weak. Although there were some factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - **Market Outlook**: LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. 6. PP - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PP2509 closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The 09 - contract basis was 46, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 58 [40]. - **Market News**: The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the downstream demand was general, but low - price transactions were relatively good [40]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. 7. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [43]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price of caustic soda continued to fall due to the price cut of Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 - contract is facing delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound and face pressure in the second half of the year [43]. 8. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of pulp closed at 5,070 yuan/ton during the day session and 5,072 yuan/ton during the night session. The trading volume was 299,380 lots, and the open interest was 165,019 lots [48]. - **Industry News**: The futures main contract SP2509 fell by 2.01% to 5,070 yuan/ton. Downstream paper mills' procurement volume decreased year - on - year, and port inventory remained high [49]. - **Market Outlook**: Pulp is expected to fluctuate [47]. 9. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FG509 closed at 1,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20%. The 09 - contract basis was 995, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 1006 [54]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass original sheet price was generally stable, with some small fluctuations. Most downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [54]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass's original sheet price is stable [53]. 10. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of methanol closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 1,052,872 lots, and the open interest was 904,459 lots [57]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index decreased by 15.33. The port inventory increased significantly this week [59]. - **Market Outlook**: Methanol is expected to fluctuate [56]. 11. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of urea closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 551,401 lots, and the open interest was 255,236 lots [61]. - **Industry News**: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. In the short term, due to some off - market information, the market had a large - scale rebound [62]. - **Market Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face supply pressure and weak domestic demand in the medium term [61]. 12. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of styrene 2506 was 7,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan compared to the previous day. The EB - BZ spread was 1315 [64]. - **Market Situation**: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene is expected to increase significantly, and the demand is expected to be weak, leading to inventory accumulation and profit compression [66]. - **Market Outlook**: Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. 13. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, SA2509 closed at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The 09 - contract basis was 127, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 12 [70]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a weakening trend. The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand was general [70]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash's spot market has little change [68]. 14. LPG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PG2508 closed at 4,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, and PG2509 closed at 4,139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 - contract was 574 [75]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the expected price of Saudi CP propane decreased, and many PDH devices were under maintenance [82]. - **Market Outlook**: LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening [73]. 15. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,871 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the basis was - 121, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was - 73 [85]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, high production, and high inventory, with a weak trend [85]. - **Market Outlook**: PVC's trend is weak [85]. 16. Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FU2508 closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88%, and LU2508 closed at 3,716 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The spread between LU08 and FU08 was 717 [90]. - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [90]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, EC2506 closed at 1,885.3 points, a decrease of 0.21%, EC2508 closed at 1,740.2 points, a decrease of 3.07%, and EC2510 closed at 1,292.8 points, a decrease of 2.31% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly [92].

2025年06月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边转弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 沥青：弱势震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP：现货下跌，成交冷淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期低位不宜追空 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期利空兑现，价格有所支撑 | 25 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 28 | | 燃料油：大幅下跌，短期或持续回撤 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上涨 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：偏弱运行，10空单酌情减仓止盈 | 31 | | 短纤：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修复 | 35 | | 瓶片：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修 ...

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边转弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：伊以冲突缓解，偏弱运行 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱运行 | 8 | | PP：现货持稳，成交冷淡 | 10 | | 烧碱：短期低位不宜追空 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行 | 16 | | 尿素：地缘冲突缓解，偏弱运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：地缘溢价回落，盘面下跌风险扩大 | 23 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 26 | | 燃料油：行情反转，夜盘跟随原油下跌 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅上行 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：10空单持有，逢高酌情加仓 | 29 | | 短纤：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 | 33 | | 瓶片：地缘降温，产业链压力 ...

2025 年 6 月 24 日 对二甲苯：月差反套 PTA：月差反套 商 品 研 究 MEG：单边转弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-23 | 7126 | 5012 | 4501 | 6826 | 4032 | | 2025-06-20 | 7076 | 4978 | 4501 | 6824 | 3965 | | 2025-06-19 | 7094 | 4988 | 4539 | 6794 | 3998 | | 2025-06-18 | 6988 | 4914 | 4471 | 6686 | 3921 | | 2025-06-17 | 6776 | 4782 | 4400 | 6546 | 3806 | | 日度变化 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% ...

2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 PTA：供增需减，反套 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 日度变化 | -1.4% | ...