2025年06月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边转弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 沥青：弱势震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP：现货下跌，成交冷淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期低位不宜追空 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期利空兑现，价格有所支撑 | 25 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 28 | | 燃料油：大幅下跌，短期或持续回撤 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上涨 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：偏弱运行，10空单酌情减仓止盈 | 31 | | 短纤：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修复 | 35 | | 瓶片：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修 ...

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边转弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：伊以冲突缓解，偏弱运行 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱运行 | 8 | | PP：现货持稳，成交冷淡 | 10 | | 烧碱：短期低位不宜追空 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行 | 16 | | 尿素：地缘冲突缓解，偏弱运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：地缘溢价回落，盘面下跌风险扩大 | 23 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 26 | | 燃料油：行情反转，夜盘跟随原油下跌 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅上行 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：10空单持有，逢高酌情加仓 | 29 | | 短纤：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 | 33 | | 瓶片：地缘降温，产业链压力 ...

2025 年 6 月 24 日 对二甲苯：月差反套 PTA：月差反套 商 品 研 究 MEG：单边转弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-23 | 7126 | 5012 | 4501 | 6826 | 4032 | | 2025-06-20 | 7076 | 4978 | 4501 | 6824 | 3965 | | 2025-06-19 | 7094 | 4988 | 4539 | 6794 | 3998 | | 2025-06-18 | 6988 | 4914 | 4471 | 6686 | 3921 | | 2025-06-17 | 6776 | 4782 | 4400 | 6546 | 3806 | | 日度变化 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% ...

2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 PTA：供增需减，反套 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 日度变化 | -1.4% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend - strength ratings for individual commodities: - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, PP, methanol, urea, LPG, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, and bottle - chip trend strengths are rated 0 (neutral) [10][11][13][17][20][21][30][39][56][60][64][74][80][87][89][91] - LLDPE,烧碱,苯乙烯, PVC trend strengths are rated - 1 (weakly bearish) [35][46][65][85] - 纯碱 trend strength is rated 1 (weakly bullish) [72] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including market fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies. It considers factors such as supply - demand relationships, plant maintenance, trade policies, and cost changes to evaluate the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Low processing fees lead to more overseas plant maintenance, and Asian PX operating rate drops to 68.6%. May is a de - stocking period, and new plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with processing fees likely to expand. Strategy: long PX short SC [10] - **PTA**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Sino - US tariff easing improves terminal demand expectations, and polyester sales improve. However, PTA and PX plant maintenance is concentrated, and the basis and spread are at a high level. Strategy: long PTA short MEG, avoid chasing the basis and spread [11] - **MEG**: Long PTA short MEG. The number of warehouse receipts is small, and there may be a positive spread arbitrage in the delivery month. Pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread for the far - month contracts [11] Rubber - It is expected to trade sideways. The trading volume and open interest of rubber futures decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable [12][13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - It will oscillate in a pattern with limited drivers. The cost of butadiene is expected to support the price, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase. The demand for synthetic rubber has increased, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a neutral impact on synthetic rubber [17][18][20] Asphalt - De - stocking continues, and crude oil prices decline slightly. The weekly production of domestic asphalt decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. The trend is neutral [21][30][31] LLDPE - Short - term oscillation, long - term pressure. Trade wars and new capacity additions bring supply - demand imbalances, and the demand for downstream products is weak. Strategy: bearish on polyethylene profit [32][33][34] PP - Prices oscillate, and trading volume is average. The increase in PP futures has a limited impact on the spot market, and downstream pre - holiday stocking has ended. The trend is neutral [38][39] 烧碱 - The medium - term trend is weak. Trade wars and seasonal factors affect demand, and the supply side has high operating rates. Strategy: short 06 and 07 contracts, 6 - 9 reverse spread [41][43][44] Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The price of paper pulp futures decreased, and the market is divided. The port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is bearish. Strategy: pay attention to port de - stocking and South American policies [47][48][49] Logs - Weakly oscillate. The trading volume and open interest of log futures decreased, and the expected arrival of coniferous logs decreased. The trend is neutral [51][53][55] Methanol - Oscillate. The spot price of methanol is weak, and the port inventory decreased last week. Geopolitical issues and MTO operating rates affect the medium - term trend [56][57][59] Urea - Factories promote sales before the holiday, and trading volume improves. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement. The inventory of urea enterprises increased, and the futures price rebounded after the spot price stabilized [62][63][64] Styrene - Weakly oscillate. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand decreases. The downstream demand for styrene has resilience, but the terminal default risk is increasing [65][66][69] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The operation of soda ash plants is stable, and downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [70][72] LPG - As the delivery approaches, the structure continues to strengthen. The prices of LPG futures increased, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased. The trend is neutral [74][80][81] PVC - Weakly oscillate. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is limited. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term [84][85] Fuel Oil - Weakly oscillate, and short - term fluctuations narrow. Low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rebounds slightly [87] Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to rebound following raw materials. For bottle - chip, short the processing fees on rallies. The trading volume of short - fiber futures increased, and the sales of polyester bottle - chip plants improved [89][90]