Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses hope that the rise in service sector inflation is only temporary [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the service industry to ensure they do not become persistent [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's ongoing concern about inflation dynamics and its potential impact on monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro against the US dollar has declined despite better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, indicating that the market may be focusing on other factors rather than the inflation increase [1] Inflation Data - Eurozone's inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% in August, surpassing the market expectation of 2.0% [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [1] Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, the euro fell by 0.6% to 1.1636 USD, down from approximately 1.1644 USD before the announcement [1] - The market anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates at its policy meeting on September 11 [1] Technical Analysis - The primary support level for the euro against the dollar is the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1502 [1] - If this support is breached, subsequent support levels are the August low of 1.1391 (August 1) and the weekly bottom support of 1.1210 (May 29) [1] - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating a mild upward bias, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a weak trend strength without a clear direction [1]

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading at 3334.08, with expectations to test resistance levels above 3370 [1] - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD/oz, while Shanghai gold futures fell by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY/g [3] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges regarding interest rate decisions, particularly with core PCE expected to exceed the 2% target by 100 basis points [3] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that after the current consolidation phase, gold prices are likely to rise again, although there are signals indicating potential downward risks [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at approximately 3270 USD and 3200 USD, with bullish sentiment expected if these levels are reached [4] - The 4-hour MACD shows a weakening trend, indicating that gold may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum unless it stabilizes above 3347 [4][5]

Group 1 - The upcoming statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are expected to significantly influence global capital markets [1] - There is a growing gap between the market's strong expectations for a rate cut in September and the complex realities faced by policymakers [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has reached historical highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts, with a 92% probability assigned to a rate cut in the September meeting [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a surprising acceleration in core CPI to 3.1%, primarily driven by service sector inflation, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand services rose by 1.1%, suggesting future inflation risks [3] - Morgan Stanley highlights that service sector inflation, driven by domestic labor costs and rents, is more persistent and challenging to address compared to goods inflation [3] Group 3 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming more apparent, with differing views on inflation risks among officials, complicating the policy landscape [4] - Powell is expected to counter the prevailing "rate cut certainty" narrative at the Jackson Hole meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4] Group 4 - Major investment banks are issuing warnings about the risks of a one-sided market bet on rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that service sector inflation has been underestimated [5] - The Bank of America strategy team warns that a dovish stance from Powell could trigger profit-taking, while recommending international stocks as a favorable allocation [5] Group 5 - The Jackson Hole meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for market volatility, with potential outcomes hinging on Powell's tone regarding inflation risks and rate cuts [6] - Long-term, the normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve may face greater challenges due to persistent service sector inflation, reshaping global asset pricing [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that contrary to market expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, persistent service sector inflation may lead to a more hawkish stance from Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market traders have locked in a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by a weak July employment report and downward revisions of historical data [5][6]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that as long as inflation data does not show a catastrophic spike, a preventive rate cut is likely, leading to a "one-way street" towards a September cut [6][4]. Group 2: Service Sector Inflation Concerns - Morgan Stanley identifies service sector inflation as the real issue, overshadowing external factors like tariffs, with core CPI rising from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year in July [7][8]. - Service prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while goods prices rose only 0.2%, indicating a more persistent inflationary trend driven by domestic factors [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell faces the challenge of managing market expectations without being cornered into a rate cut, as failing to cut rates could lead to significant market turmoil [9][10]. - The Fed's goal is to retain flexibility, especially before the complete release of employment and inflation data, to avoid being forced into a decision by market pricing [9][10]. Group 4: Implications for Future Policy - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical moment for Powell to signal that inflation concerns are more pressing than employment issues, aiming to break the market's certainty about a rate cut [12]. - Investors should prepare for potential market corrections due to discrepancies in expectations, as Powell's message may emphasize patience until more data is available [12].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley warns that the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may not occur, suggesting a "hawkish" stance instead [1][3] - Market consensus indicates a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, driven by a weak July employment report and significant downward revisions in historical data [1][2] - The report highlights that core inflation is being driven by service sector inflation rather than goods, with July's core CPI year-on-year growth accelerating from 2.9% to 3.1% [2] Group 2 - Service sector inflation is more persistent and challenging than goods inflation, primarily influenced by domestic labor costs and rents, making it harder to reverse once an upward trend is established [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the challenge of managing market expectations while addressing inflation concerns, indicating that inflation issues are more pressing than employment issues [3] - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to signal that it is premature to assess the final impact of tariffs, and his main task will be to counter the market's assumption of an inevitable rate cut [3]

Core Insights - The recent unemployment claims data presents a complex signal regarding the labor market's adjustment under policy pressures, with initial claims decreasing to 224,000, below market expectations of 228,000, indicating a continuation of low volatility trends [1] - Despite a cooling hiring sentiment due to economic uncertainties from tariff policies, employers have not initiated large-scale layoffs, as evidenced by the average monthly job additions of only 35,000 over the past three months [1] - The continuing high level of continuing claims at 1.95 million suggests that some unemployed individuals are facing prolonged job search periods, aligning with predictions of a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Policy and Market Reactions - Recent data has prompted policy changes, including the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director following significant downward revisions of employment data for May and June, with a controversial nominee, EJ. Anthony, proposed for the position [1] - Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although rising service sector inflation and tariff-induced price pressures may influence the pace of policy adjustments [1] Regional Employment Trends - The four-week moving average of initial claims remains stable at 221,800, while actual claims in regions like Massachusetts have shown an uptick, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets [2]

Core Insights - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates poor inflation data in the services sector, as highlighted by Federal Reserve's Goolsbee [1] Group 1 - The services sector is experiencing unfavorable inflation trends, which could impact overall economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests that the Federal Reserve should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision, following the previous decision to maintain rates [1] - Revised data shows that employment growth in May and June was significantly lower than previously reported, indicating that the Fed could have started cutting rates earlier if this data had been available [1] - The latest inflation report indicates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with core CPI rising 0.3%, aligning with economists' expectations [1] Group 2 - Becerra notes an unexpected rise in service sector inflation, contrasting with earlier expectations of goods price inflation [2] - He expresses anticipation for the timely confirmation of Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Milan, who is expected to participate in the upcoming policy meeting [2] - Becerra emphasizes that Milan will be an important voice in changing the composition of the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - Becerra discusses the broad selection criteria for candidates to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, focusing on their views on monetary policy, regulatory policy, and management capabilities [3] - He criticizes the high costs associated with the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which amounts to $2.5 billion, and highlights his personal funding of renovations for the Treasury Department [3] - Becerra expresses optimism regarding ongoing trade negotiations, stating that substantial agreements with major countries are expected in the coming months [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation in the service sector is decreasing while inflation in goods is increasing [1] - It was noted that 30% to 40% of core inflation is attributed to tariffs [1]