● 本报记者 连润 国家统计局7月9日发布数据显示，6月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%， 环比下降0.1%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%，创近14个月以来新高。工业 生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降3.6%。 专家表示，6月份，CPI同比由降转涨，得益于扩内需、促消费政策持续显效。下阶段，应继续发挥宏 观政策组合效应，促进供求关系改善，推动价格合理回升。 董莉娟说，促消费政策效应持续显现。6月份，文娱耐用消费品、家用纺织品和家用器具价格同比分别 上涨2.0%、2.0%和1.0%；汽车价格降幅逐步收窄，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格6月同比分别下降 3.4%和2.5%，降幅分别为近28个月和26个月最小。 从环比看，6月份，CPI下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。 董莉娟表示，6月份，食品价格降幅小于季节性。受高温、降雨较常年同期偏多影响，（下转A02版） （上接A01版）食品价格环比下降0.4%，降幅小于季节性水平0.5个百分点。此外，工业消费品价格环 比由降转涨，服务价格环比稳中有涨。 6月份，核心CPI同比上涨0.7% ...

埃及6月核心CPI同比上涨11.4% ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 继续回升, PPI 同比降幅走阔 6 月物价数据解读 2025 年 7 月 9 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 6 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（前值-0.2%），同比上涨 0.1%（前值-0.1%），过 去五年（春节在１月份,下同）的季节性环比均值为-0.2%,其中食品价格环 比下降 0.4%(前值-0.2%),过去五年环比均值为-0.7%;非食品价格持平(前 值-0.2%），过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比继续持平,同比继续回升 至 0.7%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4%（前值-0.4%）, 同比下降 3.6%（前值-3.3%），环比持平、同比降幅走阔。 能 ...

7月9日，国家统计局公布6月份物价指数。 6月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比结束连续4个月下降的态势，转为上涨0.1%。全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降3.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.3个 百分点；环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读数据时表示，6月CPI由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所回升影响。与此同时，食品价格降幅也略有收窄，服务 价格上涨0.5%，涨幅保持稳定。核心CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，创近14个月以来新高。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访时表示，当前整体物价低位运行态势不改，显示国内有效需求仍有待 进一步提振。 汽油价格环比由上月下降3.8%转为上涨0.4% 6月，CPI同比结束连续4个月下降的趋势，转为上涨0.1%；环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上 涨0.7%。 6月份，CPI同比结束连续4个月下降的趋势 图片来源：国家统计局 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳在接受每经记者微信采访时认为，6月CPI同比由负转正，主要推动力是 ...

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数冲高回落，沪指3500点得而复失，多元金融、传媒板块领涨，原因何在？ 2、 核心CPI同比创14个月来新高，美对部分国家关税落地，A股牛市来了吗？后市哪些板块值得关注？ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1382 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股出现冲高回落，3500点得而复失。 消息面上，物价走强可能是市场受益的主要原因。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/9，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.51万亿元，盘面上，多元金融、银行、传媒等板块逆势上涨，保险、半导体、有色等板块跌幅居前。 分析人士指出， 接下来可以重点观察下成交量的变化，如果能够逐步放大并稳定在1.6万亿元上方，若上证指数能够突破并站稳3500点，则上方空间 有望继续打开。 A股冲高回落，这一数据创14个月新高 对于今天的冲高回落，分析人士认为，3500点上方积累大量历史套牢盘，需持续放量才能有效突破。今日沪深两市成交未能持续放大，导致抛压释放。 但是从消息面上，利好不断。 1、 核心CPI同比创近 ...

宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 继续回升, PPI 同比降幅走阔 6 月物价数据解读 2025 年 7 月 9 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 6 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（前值-0.2%），同比上涨 0.1%（前值-0.1%），过 去五年（春节在１月份,下同）的季节性环比均值为-0.2%,其中食品价格环 比下降 0.4%(前值-0.2%),过去五年环比均值为-0.7%;非食品价格持平(前 值-0.2%），过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比继续持平,同比继续回升 至 0.7%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4%（前值-0.4%）, 同比下降 3.6%（前值-3.3%），环比持平、同比降幅走阔。 能 ...

其中，油价变动影响能源价格降幅比上月收窄1.0个百分点，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月减少约 0.08个百分点；受国际大宗商品价格变动影响，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨39.2%和15.9%，合 计影响CPI同比上涨约0.21个百分点。 中新社北京7月9日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局9日公布，6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显 效，中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比涨 幅扩大至0.7%，创近14个月以来新高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，6月份CPI同比连续下降4个月后转涨，主要受工业消费 品价格有所回升影响。当月，工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的1.0%收窄至0.5%，对CPI同比的下拉影 响比上月减少约0.18个百分点。 从更体现近期价格变化情况的环比看，6月份CPI下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。受高 温、降雨较常年同期偏多影响，食品价格环比下降0.4%，降幅小于季节性水平。受国际油价变动影 响，汽油价格环比由上月下降3.8%转为上涨0.4%。扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比上涨0.1%，其中铂 金饰品价格环比上涨12. ...

Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

来源： 国家统计局官网 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 同比由降转涨 核心 CPI 继续回升 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 和 PPI 数据 6 月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（ CPI ）同比由上月下降转为上 涨 0.1% ；环比下降 0.1% ，降幅比上月收窄 0.1 个百分点；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比继续回升，上涨 0.7% 。工业生产者出厂价格指数（ PPI ）环比下降 0.4% ，降幅 与上月相同，同比下降 3.6% ，降幅比上月扩大 0.3 个百分点。 一、 CPI 同比由降转涨，核心 CPI 继续回升 CPI 同比上涨 0.1% ，为连续下降 4 个月后转涨。 CPI 由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所 回升影响。 工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的 1.0% 收窄至 0.5% ，对 CPI 同比的下拉影 响比上月减少约 0.18 个百分点。其中，油价变动影响能源价格降幅比上月收窄 1.0 个百分 点，对 CPI 同比的下拉影响比上月减少约 0.08 个百分点；受国际大宗商品价格变动影响， 金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 ...