Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand policies is showing positive effects, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a 0.1% decline in June [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline is narrowing compared to June, marking the first month of reduced decline since March [1][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [2][3] - Key contributors to the service price increase included airfare (up 17.9%), tourism (up 9.1%), hotel accommodation (up 6.9%), and vehicle rental (up 4.4%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a continuous upward trend [2][5] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, affecting prices in certain industries [4][6] - The construction sector faced demand slowdowns due to seasonal weather conditions, while the electricity sector saw reduced demand for coal due to increased hydropower generation [4] - The competitive market environment is improving, with significant reductions in price declines for coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery industries [4][6] Industry Trends - The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, along with the rapid growth of emerging industries, are contributing to a year-on-year price recovery in related sectors [5][6] - The implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives is driving healthy development in the consumer market, leading to price increases in sectors such as arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods [6][7]

核心CPI温和回升 7月物价运行边际改善 （上接1版） 物价整体运行趋稳 对下一阶段的物价走势，受访专家认为，更加积极有为的宏观政策将持续加码，内需恢复节奏有望进一 步加快，"反内卷"系列措施持续推进，国内物价运行趋稳。 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳表示，展望未来，"反内卷"将会带动8月相关工业品价格中枢高于7月，加 之上年同期基数显著走低，预计8月PPI环比有望继续改善。 "新推出的生育支持政策、免费学前教育相关举措、个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息 政策等都将有效拉动内需，推动国内物价修复至合理水平。下一阶段，CPI将持续温和修复。"广开首席 产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金表示。 国家统计局副局长盛来运此前表示，下半年，相关政策尤其是扩内需政策继续显效，将拉动相关消费需 求，推动消费品价格回升。中央有关会议要求要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，有利于规范市场秩 序、改善市场环境。假期效应显现，会促进相关服务类价格稳定或者上行。无论是CPI还是PPI，翘尾因 素会减弱，对CPI、PPI下拉影响作用会降低。价格会保持低位温和回升态势。 季节性因素影响部分行业价格下降。董莉娟分析，夏季高温雨水天气增多： ...

从环比看，CPI环比上涨0.4%，涨幅高于季节性水平0.1个百分点。环比上涨主要受服务和工业消费品价 格上涨带动。7月份，服务价格环比上涨0.6%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.26个百分点，成为带动CPI环比增 速"转正"的重要因素。工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比6月份扩大0.4个百分点，影响CPI环比上 涨约0.17个百分点。 "受暑期出游旺季影响，飞机票、旅游、宾馆住宿和交通工具租赁费价格环比涨幅均高于季节性水平， 合计影响CPI环比上涨约0.21个百分点。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，一系列提振消费政策带动需求端持续回暖，叠加"618"促销活动结束，扣除能源的工业消 费品价格上涨0.2%。其中，燃油小汽车、新能源小汽车价格均由连续5个月以上的下降转为持平，家用 器具、文娱耐用消费品等价格环比涨幅在0.5%至2.2%之间。 对此，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，今年以来，核心CPI持续回升，反映随着扩内需、促消费 政策持续显效，市场供求关系逐步改善，国内经济循环进一步畅通。 8月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由降转涨，上涨 0.4%，同 ...

往后看，"反内卷"政策对 PPI 的积极影响或有望渐进式地、长期性地释放。 从行业层面来看，当前产能优化相关政策已从煤炭、钢铁、水泥等传统工业领 域，扩展至汽车、光伏、电池等新兴行业。从对 PPI 的影响来看，当前"反内卷"主要涉及行业营收合计占比接近 20% 。 风险提示：房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 报告导读： 今年以来，各类消费补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同比 持续走高，但也要看到租金、家庭服务等部分服务价格仍呈现修复乏力的态势。接下来， 需重点关注 " 反内卷 " 政策效果的逐步释放，以及内需政策的接续支持。 7 月 CPI 环比上行 0.4% ，符合季节性表现，同比持平。其中，食品 CPI 仍是拖累项，核心 CPI 同比回升至 0.8% ，为 2024 年 3 月以来最高。 从核心 CPI 分项来看， 1 ）消费政策补贴类行业涨价动力较充足。 生活用品及服务价格环比上行 0.8% ，显著好于季节性（ 0.26% ）。除了与" 618 "促 销活动结束、价格反弹有关外，或主要受益于消费补贴政策的支持。另外，可能也和前期地产交易回暖、高温下空调、冰箱、冰柜等换新需求走 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, and remained flat year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for three months [1][2] - Food prices decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.21 percentage points in CPI, while other categories such as transportation, education, and healthcare saw increases [2][3] - The performance of CPI in July was better than seasonal expectations, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [4] - The reduction in PPI was primarily observed in upstream industries, with significant improvements in coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, indicating a positive impact from anti-involution policies [4][5] - The anti-involution measures are beginning to show effects, leading to a stabilization and potential recovery in prices across various industries [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Short-term effects of anti-involution policies are expected to reshape supply-demand structures and enhance overall efficiency in the industrial chain, potentially leading to a reasonable price recovery [5] - The sustainability of price increases in the medium to long term remains uncertain, heavily dependent on policy execution and coordination across various sectors, including emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6] - The effectiveness of these policies in creating a virtuous cycle of improved corporate profitability and enhanced economic momentum hinges on the ability to stimulate domestic demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous effect of the domestic demand expansion policy is leading to positive changes in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing stability and slight increases in certain areas [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [5]. - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and pork prices decreasing by 9.5%, contributing to the overall CPI stability [2][5]. Price Contributions - Service and industrial consumer goods prices were the main drivers of the CPI increase, with service prices rising by 0.6% month-on-month and industrial prices increasing by 0.5% [3][4]. - Specific price increases in the travel sector, such as airfares and accommodation, significantly impacted the CPI, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the month-on-month increase [4]. PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, primarily due to seasonal factors affecting manufacturing and construction [6]. - Certain industries, such as non-metallic mineral products and coal mining, experienced price declines, but the overall rate of decline has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization [7][8]. - Expectations for August suggest a possible improvement in PPI, driven by a low base effect and ongoing domestic demand recovery [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are becoming increasingly evident, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July [1][4][6] - In July, the national CPI remained flat year-on-year, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1][4][5] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [1][4][6] Group 2 - The increase in CPI is primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that in July, the effects of policies to expand domestic demand are becoming evident, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat year-on-year and increasing by 0.4% month-on-month after a previous decline of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [1] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The average CPI from January to July showed a decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The analysis indicates that the flat year-on-year CPI is primarily influenced by lower food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which fell by 7.6% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the rate of decline [1] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, accounting for over 60% of the total rise [1]

国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，CPI同比持平，主要受食品价格较低影响。其中，鲜菜 价格同比下降7.6%，降幅比上月扩大7.2个百分点，鲜果价格同比上涨2.8%，涨幅比上月回落3.3个百分 点，二者对CPI同比的下拉影响合计比上月增加约0.21个百分点，是带动CPI同比由涨转平的主因。 环比上涨主要受服务和工业消费品价格上涨带动。服务价格环比上涨0.6%，影响CPI环比上涨约 0.26个百分点，占CPI总涨幅六成多。工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点，影 响CPI环比上涨约0.17个百分点。（记者 王雨萧） 统计数据显示，7月份，食品价格同比下降1.6%，非食品价格同比上涨0.3%；消费品价格同比下降 0.4%，服务价格同比上涨0.5%。1至7月平均，CPI比上年同期下降0.1%。 新华社北京8月9日电 国家统计局9日发布数据显示，7月份，扩内需政策效应持续显现，全国居民 消费价格指数（CPI）同比持平，环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI 同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。 ...