Domestic News - The Chinese government has approved a certain number of export licenses for rare earth-related items, indicating a willingness to enhance communication with relevant countries regarding export controls in the civilian sector [3] - Ant Group's Ant Financial has initiated the application for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong and has engaged in multiple rounds of communication with regulators [3] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have jointly issued measures to support financial initiatives in Fujian, aiming to explore new paths for cross-strait integration and development [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports car manufacturers' commitment to a "60-day payment term" to promote healthy industry development [3] International News - Israel is considering military action against Iran in the coming days, as reported by ABC News [2] - The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that Iran has violated its nuclear non-proliferation obligations, with Iranian media stating that a new uranium enrichment facility will be launched in a secure area [2] Market and Economic Updates - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fallen to a three-year low, while the euro has risen to a three-and-a-half-year high [3] - Morgan Stanley maintains its oil price forecast for 2025 but warns that in the worst-case scenario, oil prices could double [3]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase maintains its oil price forecast for 2025, projecting prices to remain between $60 and $65 per barrel, while warning that in worst-case scenarios, prices could double to $120-$130 per barrel [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - JPMorgan Chase expects oil prices to be around $60 per barrel in 2026, with current prices slightly below $70, approximately $4 above the estimated fair value of $66 for June [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The bank indicates that geopolitical risk premiums are already partially reflected in current oil prices, with concerns centered around potential disruptions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's oil exports [1] - In a severe scenario where Iranian oil exports decrease by 2.1 million barrels per day, the impact on supply could be significant, leading to potential price surges [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and gas industry [6][7]. Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a continuation of production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for July, significantly impacting oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies [1][2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. May Oil Price Review - In May 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $64.0 per barrel, down $2.5 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $61.3 per barrel, down $1.5 [1][14]. - Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations due to tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, with OPEC+ planning to accelerate production in June [1][14]. 2. Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has extended its production increase plan, with a significant rise in output expected to be completed by October 2025, ahead of the original schedule [2][19]. - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 730,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 760,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][17]. 3. Key Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - As of May 30, 2025, WTI crude oil settled at $60.79 per barrel, up $2.6 (+4.4%), while Brent settled at $63.90, up $0.8 (+1.2%) [36]. - The average Brent-WTI price spread was $3.07 per barrel, narrowing by $0.45 from the previous month [36]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.4 million barrels per day in May 2025, a decrease of 42,000 barrels per day (-0.3%) [44]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 13 to an average of 468 rigs [44]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in key companies [3][5]. Core Insights - The EIA has continuously revised down its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting an average of $66 and $59 per barrel respectively. The forecast for US natural gas prices is $4.1 and $4.8 per million British thermal units for the same years [6][7]. - Global oil demand growth is expected to remain stable, with IEA projecting increases of 740,000 and 760,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively. OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.3 million and 1.28 million barrels per day for the same years [10][11]. - On the supply side, OPEC is expected to contribute additional production, with EIA forecasting a global oil production increase of 1.38 million and 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively [15][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.41 per barrel, a 2.35% increase week-on-week. WTI futures rose by 2.41% to $62.49 per barrel [25]. - The US oil rig count decreased to 576, down by 2 from the previous week and down 28 year-on-year [38][41]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $12.72 per barrel, while the US gasoline crack spread rose to $27.41 per barrel [6][19]. - The report anticipates improved refining profitability as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery expected as economic conditions improve [6][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, while PTA profitability has declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a potential improvement expected as new capacities come online [6][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong. It also suggests investing in companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and CNOOC [21][22]. - For the downstream polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [21][22].

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its WTI crude oil price forecasts for the next two years, indicating a bearish outlook for the oil market [4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The EIA has revised its 2025 WTI spot price forecast from $63.88 per barrel to $61.81 per barrel, and for 2026, from $57.48 per barrel to $55.24 per barrel. The 2024 WTI spot price forecast remains unchanged at $76.60 per barrel [4]. - The EIA's quarterly price predictions for 2025 include $60.85 per barrel in Q2, $58 in Q3, and $57 in Q4, with Q1 at $71.85 per barrel. For 2026, the forecasts are $56 per barrel in Q1 and Q2, $55 in Q3, and $54 in Q4 [4]. Comparison with Previous Forecasts - The latest forecasts show a downward trend compared to the EIA's April predictions, which had estimated $62.33 per barrel for Q2 2025, $61.67 for Q3, and $60 for Q4. The 2026 forecasts were $59 for Q1, $58 for Q2, $57 for Q3, and $56 for Q4 [4]. - In March, the EIA had a more optimistic outlook, predicting an average price of $70.68 per barrel for 2025 and $64.97 per barrel for 2026 [5]. Other Market Predictions - Standard Chartered's commodity research head forecasts an average WTI price of $58 per barrel for 2025, rising to $75 per barrel in 2026, with specific quarterly predictions for 2025 being $50 in Q2, $49 in Q3, and $62 in Q4 [5]. - J.P. Morgan's commodity research team anticipates an average WTI price of $62 per barrel for 2025, potentially dropping to $54 per barrel in 2026, with Q2 2025 expected to be $63 per barrel, declining to $57 in Q4 [5].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

在OPEC+上周末决定6月份大幅增产后，高盛一个月内第三次下调了其油价预测。 在上周六的一次线上会议中，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+主要产油国同意将日均产量提高41.1万桶，几乎是原计划增产量 的三倍，目的是惩罚像哈萨克斯坦这样长期违反该联盟配额规定的国家。 OPEC+在5月份已经实施了类似举措，标志着该联盟从捍卫油价的努力中急剧转向，现在看来这明显是一场针对美国页岩油 生产商以及哈萨克斯坦等各个超额生产的OPEC+成员国的价格战。 高盛的分析师现在预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶60美元，低于此前预测的每桶63美元；美国基准WTI原油在2025 年的平均价格下调至56美元，低于此前预期的每桶59美元。 就明年而言，布伦特原油的平均价格预计为每桶56美元，低于此前的58美元，而WTI原油预计为每桶52美元，低于4月中旬 之前预测的每桶55美元。 | | | GS Forecasts ($/bbl) | | | Brent | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Brent Prior | Brent New | WTI New | WTI Prior | ...

巴克莱下调今明两年布油价格预期，因欧佩克+加速增产 金十数据5月5日讯，巴克莱将2025年布伦特原油价格预测下调4美元至66美元/桶，将2026年布伦特原油 价格预测下调2美元至60美元/桶，理由是欧佩克+决定加速石油产量增长。巴克莱表示："与关税相关的 事态发展肯定是一个拖累，但欧佩克+的转向也是最近油价下跌的重要推动力。"巴克莱还修改了对欧 佩克+的基本看法，预计该组织将继续加速逐步取消额外的自愿调整，目前预计该计划将在6个月内生 效，而最初计划为18个月。"这将导致我们对2025年和2026年欧佩克原油产量的预测分别增加39万桶/日 和23万桶/日。" ...