Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed led to sufficient supply, putting pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,520 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -16 yuan and a decline of -0.19% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,126 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30 yuan and a decline of -0.37% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,721 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -5 yuan and a decline of -0.05% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,620 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -110 yuan and a decline of -1.26%. The spot basis was P09 + 100 yuan, with a环比 change of -94 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -60 yuan and a decline of -0.72%. The spot basis was Y09 + 154 yuan, with a环比 change of -30 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10 yuan and a decline of -0.10%. The spot basis was OI09 + 179 yuan, with a环比 change of -5 yuan [1] Market News - On January 9, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,095 US dollars, down 15 US dollars from the previous day, and the CIF price was 1,125 US dollars, down 15 US dollars from the previous day - From June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 2.5%环比 compared to the same period last month - India's soybean oil imports in June are expected to decline by 18%环比, reaching the lowest level in four months - About 50% of Malaysia's exports to Nigeria are palm oil, with an export value of 600 million US dollars in 2024 - The FOB price of new - crop Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% to be shipped before the end of July is 227 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from the previous week. Consulting agency SovEcon estimates the new - crop wheat price to be 226 - 230 US dollars per ton, compared with 225 - 229 US dollars per ton the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, while palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward. The expected increase in production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in May, along with the increase in production and exports at the beginning of June, and the supply - demand growth in Indonesia in March, indicate that the supply side pressure is gradually increasing. The demand side shows a significant increase in India's palm oil imports in May and continued improvement in exports in June. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, lacking clear direction, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The strength of rapeseed oil and palm oil has reversed in the short term, and the spread in September has significantly narrowed. It is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: Supply and demand in the palm - producing areas are both increasing, and with the easing of China - Canada relations, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has given back its previous gains. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 3% increase in Malaysian palm oil production, a 17.9% increase in exports, and a 7.74% increase in inventory in May. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19% and exports by 3%. In Indonesia, the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons. In the domestic market, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was average last week, while that of palm oil slightly increased. The supply increase led to the accumulation of soybean oil inventory to 750,000 tons and palm oil inventory to 360,000 tons. In terms of strategy, the sowing of new - season US soybeans is nearly complete with a high good - rate, and CBOT soybeans are trading around the 1050 mark. The supply side pressure is increasing as the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle and will reach the production peak in the third quarter. The demand side shows that India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May, and the export situation in June has continued to improve. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has significantly narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, domestic and international palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 1, the US soybean sowing progress was 84% (market expectation: 86%, previous year: 77%, five - year average: 80%), the emergence rate was 63% (previous year: 53%, five - year average: 57%), and the good - rate was 67% (market expectation: 68%). As of the week ending June 3, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 17% the previous week. The Brazilian soybean premium rebounded to around 70 cents per bushel at the beginning of June [11][12]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In April, the production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil all increased. In May, institutions expect a 3% increase in production to 1.74 million tons, a 17.9% increase in exports to 1.3 million tons, and a 7.74% increase in inventory to 2.01 million tons. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19.09% and exports increased by 2.63%. [18][22]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In March, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.8 million tons, exports were 2.88 million tons, consumption was 2.1 million tons, and inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons. From January to April, Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a year - on - year decrease of 5.37% [23]. - **Indian Market**: In May, India's edible oil imports increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports increased by 87% to 600,000 tons. India has halved the basic import tariff on crude edible oil to 10% since May 31 [28][31]. - **Domestic Oilseed Pressing**: Last week, rapeseed oil broke downward, and the spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed dropped below zero. The inversion of domestic palm oil import profits continued to narrow. The oil mill's soybean crushing capacity reached 2.2 - 2.3 million tons in late May and early June, the highest in the past three years. The soybean inventory was 5.6 - 5.9 million tons and is expected to continue rising. The rapeseed crushing capacity in late May was 90,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory increased slightly to 230,000 tons [33][36][40]. - **Domestic Oil Inventory**: As of the end of May, soybean oil inventory increased to 750,000 tons, rapeseed oil inventory was stable at around 840,000 tons, palm oil inventory rebounded to 360,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1.81 million tons, compared with 1.7 million tons in the previous year [43]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Price and Trading Volume**: Last week, the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated within a narrow range, while rapeseed oil declined. As of June 6, the price of soybean oil was 7,998 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.57% from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,617 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.14%; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil maintained a rigid demand. The trading volume of soybean oil was 59,000 tons (previous week: 75,200 tons), palm oil was 3,610 tons (previous week: 2,963 tons), and rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons (previous week: 5,000 tons) [46][48]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No relevant content provided other than the title.

Report Information - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The oil and fat sector lacks obvious drivers, mainly short - term speculation on news or high - frequency supply - demand data. Rapeseed oil fluctuates around 9000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada economic and trade negotiations. The market expects a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May, which suppresses the upward movement of the market, but strong exports support the market, continuing the range - bound trend. Brazil's abundant soybean supply pressures the market, and attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. The improvement of the supply situation may put pressure on soybean oil and other oil and fat products. Selling soybean oil call options can be considered, with risks including weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first - grade soybean oil: 09 + 280 in early June, 09 + 260 from June to July, 09 + 270 from June to September, 01 + 330 from October to January. East China 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 450 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector lacks obvious drivers. Rapeseed oil fluctuates around 9000 yuan, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade negotiations and far - month ship purchases. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to exceed 2 million tons in late May for the first time this year, suppressing the market, but strong exports support it. Brazil's abundant soybean supply pressures the market, and attention should be paid to soybean imports and crushing. Selling soybean oil call options can be considered [7] 2. Industry News - **Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% and oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month - on - month [8] - **Exports**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, a 62,700 - ton increase from the previous month. According to ITS, exports were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][21]