Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9004 | 9250 | 9364 | 9204 | 9360 | 356 | 3.95% | 56876 | 96520 | 7060 | | P2601 | 90616 | 9452 | 9580 | 9438 | 9570 | 380 | 4.13% | 509596 | 379054 | 46907 | | Y2605 | 7876 | 7996 | 8096 | 7972 | 8074 | 198 | 2.51% | 60570 | 224422 | 5157 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8212 | 8340 | 8212 | 8332 | 218 | 2.69% | 336990 | 506255 | -8109 | | O1605 | 9522 | 9619 | 9749 | 9617 | 9729 | 207 | 2.17% | 13285 | 52813 | 254 | | OI601 | 10046 | 10160 | 10266 | 10129 | 10248 | 202 | 2.01% | 209869 | 329150 | 25710 | [7] Spot Price and Basis - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270 (October - November: OI2601 + 280). East China first - grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: November - January is 01 + 230, December - February is 01 + 240, January - March is 01 + 200, April - July is 05 + 250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes: Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 70; Dongguan Chunjin's 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 0. [7] Core View - After the holiday, the three major oils strongly made up for losses. The palm oil main contract P2601 was the strongest, with a gain of over 4%. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release an official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel blending project, raising concerns about tight palm oil supply. - Near - term rapeseed oil continues the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply. Traders mainly hold prices for shipment, and the basis quote continues to rise. Pay attention to China - Canada trade progress and rapeseed raw material supply, and mainly allocate more. - In the case of soybean oil, the estimated soybean imports in the fourth quarter are still relatively sufficient, but the import cost has increased, providing support at the lower level. - The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds. It is advisable to buy at low levels and roll long positions. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in September 2025 was 1.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.35%. The production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 6.17% month - on - month, the production in Sabah increased by 2.35% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak increased by 6.62% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia increased by 3.44% month - on - month. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia showed that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February. The production is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, the export volume is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, and the inventory will drop to 2.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry announced that the laboratory tests for B50 fuel were completed in August. The next step is to conduct road tests and applicability tests for non - automotive diesel machinery to ensure the safety of B50 use. The government is accelerating the implementation of the mandatory blending policy of biodiesel (B50) with a 50% palm oil ratio in 2026 to reduce dependence on imported diesel, and it is expected to launch B50 biodiesel in the second half of 2026. - Brazil's Energy Ministry's biofuel director said that the policy to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may not be implemented on schedule due to the government's incomplete technical feasibility study report, tight policy promotion time, and high implementation difficulty. [9][10][17] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][16][18][22][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall adjustment in the prices of oilseeds and oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View of Different Oils 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,512, with a basis of 179, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% increase year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,598, with a basis of - 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750. [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,386, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400. [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].

Group 1: Report Core View - The global oil and fat market shows complex supply - demand dynamics in the 25/26 period. Despite an increase in global oil and fat production, the recovery of export and biodiesel demand since the second half of this year, along with palm oil supply issues, supports price increases. The supply of Malaysia and Indonesia is differentiated, with Malaysia's production possibly peaking in August while Indonesia's production recovers and inventory builds up. Global new - crop sunflower oil prices are not as weak as expected due to harvest delays and slow pressing growth. South American soybean oil has passed its export peak and has poor pressing profits. The rapeseed oil market is affected by policies, especially China - Canada relations. The trend - down of oil and fat prices may occur only if the palm oil production - reduction season in Malaysia and Indonesia is not obvious and the global biodiesel development slows down [195]. Group 2: Global Oilseeds and Oils Overview Production - Rapeseed production has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower seed production has been continuously adjusted downwards. In the 25/26 period, the production of some oilseeds is expected to change, with rapeseed showing an upward trend and sunflower seed a downward one [8]. - The production of rapeseed oil and palm oil has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower oil production has been continuously adjusted downwards [29]. Export - Rapeseed export has been continuously adjusted upwards, sunflower seed export has been adjusted downwards multiple times, and soybean export has been recently adjusted upwards [15]. - The export of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil has been continuously adjusted downwards, while palm oil export has been continuously adjusted upwards [35]. Pressing - Rapeseed pressing has been continuously adjusted upwards, while soybean and sunflower seed pressing have been continuously adjusted downwards [21]. Inventory - Soybean and sunflower seed inventories are decreasing, while rapeseed inventory is increasing [23]. - The global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is slightly decreasing in the 25/26 period [38]. Group 3: Palm Oil Malaysia - Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia has been relatively good this year. From May, Malaysia's palm oil production has been below the average level for four consecutive months. In August, the production decreased by 2.05% year - on - year. The export in August increased by 1.19% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, and the cumulative export from January to August decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. The apparent consumption in August reached 490,000 tons, a record high. The inventory increased to 2.2 million tons. In September, there is a high possibility of production reduction, and the inventory build - up at the end of September may be limited [42][45][48][52]. Indonesia - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.99% month - on - month to 5.289 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 27.89 million tons, 1.71 million tons more than the same period in 2024. The export in June increased by 35.56% month - on - month to 3.606 million tons. From July, production recovered again, and inventory began to build up. In August, production continued to recover, especially in the second half of August. Usually, the average production increase in September is the largest, but in 2025, due to precipitation and other factors, the actual increase may not reach the historical average of 5.43%. The inventory will continue to build up at the end of September, but the recovery will not be fast [60][68]. Group 4: Rapeseed EU - In August, the EU raised rapeseed production by 300,000 tons to 18.84 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 5.81 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing to 3.24 tons, a 2.15 - million - ton increase compared to the previous crop [75]. Canada - In August, Canada officially raised the 24/25 rapeseed production from 19.19 million tons to 20.1 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 8.68 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing from 2.08 tons to 2.35 tons. Exports were raised from 6 million tons to 7 million tons, domestic consumption from 11.5 million tons to 12.18 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 1.18 million tons [77]. Australia - Australia's 25/26 rapeseed production is 5.71 million tons, lower than the previous crop's 6.1 million tons, with both the planting area and yield per hectare decreasing. The harvest area is 3.379 million hectares, and the yield per hectare is 1.7 tons. Exports are 4.14 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 4.1 million tons. The rapeseed is currently in the growing season and will enter the harvesting period in October [83]. Russia and Ukraine - Russia's 2025 total rapeseed production is expected to reach 5 million tons, higher than last year's 4.66 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed production is estimated to be 3.5 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area and unfavorable weather during the growing season [87]. Group 5: Soybean Oil Brazil - In August, Brazil's soybean oil export was 160,000 tons, higher than July's 138,000 tons but lower than June's 167,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to August was 1.11 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024 [89]. Argentina - In August, Argentina's soybean oil export was 545,000 tons, lower than July's 569,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to July was 4.14 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024. The export growth rate of both Brazil and Argentina's soybean oil is slowing down [92]. USA - In July, the US exported 28,500 tons of soybean oil. The inventory and consumption data also show certain trends, but specific details are presented in the relevant charts [101]. Group 6: India - As of September 16, the price differences between different oils in India have changed. The import, inventory, and consumption of various oils also show different trends. For example, the import of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil has specific data changes over time, and the consumption of these oils also varies monthly [111][115][126]. Group 7: Biodiesel Indonesia - In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed 7.96 billion liters of biodiesel, completing 51% of the 2025 target of 15.6 billion liters, which supports the demand for palm oil [132]. EU - The EU's RME processing profit is average, and the import and export of biodiesel are decreasing. The import of UCO from China is at a high level, and the import of raw materials from Malaysia and Indonesia also shows certain trends [133][135][137]. USA - In June, the proportion of soybean oil in biodiesel feedstock reached 36%, rising for several consecutive months. The proportion of animal fat and waste oils remained high, and the proportion of Canadian rapeseed oil decreased to 8%. The import of various raw materials also shows specific data changes [144][146]. Brazil - On June 25, Brazil officially approved increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) starting from August 1, and plans to reach 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027, with a final target of 25% (B25) [162]. Group 8: Domestic Market Supply - The domestic soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes, as well as the import volumes of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, show specific data changes over time. The spot price differences between different oils are affected by factors such as taxes and import volumes [167][169][171][182]. Inventory - The inventory of domestic edible palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils, as well as the total inventory of the four major oils, show certain trends over time [184]. Transaction - The downstream purchases more soybean oil, especially the forward basis. The spot transaction of palm oil remains at a low level, and the domestic rapeseed oil transaction slows down after the sellable quantity of oil mills decreases [191]. Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of domestic oils shows the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other aspects over time [194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a further build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventories, possibly reaching a multi - year high. With sufficient rapeseed and soybean yields, the overall supply side of the oil market faces significant pressure, causing the oil market to remain under continuous pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 54 yuan (- 0.57%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,366.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan (+ 0.12%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,727.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 39.00 yuan (- 0.40%) [1] Spot Prices - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 80.00 yuan (- 0.85%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 68.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 114.00, with a环比 change of - 10.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan (- 0.20%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 153.00, with a环比 change of + 19.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, rising to the highest level since August last year; exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, reaching a nine - month high [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 526 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 525 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 1,161 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,163 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) remained at 1,080 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) remained at 1,060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 470 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 9 dollars/ton to 442 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 486 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (October shipment) increased by 5 cents/bu to 240 cents/bu; US West Coast (October shipment) decreased by 10 cents/bu to 165 cents/bu; Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 10 cents/bu to 285 cents/bu [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the rise of oils and fats will be weak and a correction will occur, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or patiently wait for the correction and then try to go long at low prices. The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. One can also consider going long on P1 - 5 at low prices and the OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366 with a rise of 10; palm oil 9368 with a fall of 54; and rapeseed oil 9727 with a fall of 39. The basis of different varieties and regions showed different changes, such as the soybean oil basis in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and the palm oil basis in Tianjin was 130 with a fall of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 296 with a rise of 8, palm oil was 220 with a fall of 26, and rapeseed oil was 169 with no change [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1002 with a rise of 64, the OI - Y spread was 1361 with a fall of 49, the OI - P spread was 359 with a rise of 15, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil盘面利润 from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 209, and the CNF price was 1118; the 盘面利润 of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 776, and the FOB price was 1067 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 35th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 123.9 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.0 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 billion tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; the output is expected to be 1.86 billion tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; and the export volume is expected to be 1.45 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.01 million tons, a 4.81% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was weak, and palm oil may correct [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 123.88 million tons, a 4.45% increase from the previous week. The basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was lack of power, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline marginally, which supported the price [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can partially take profits and partially hold; non - position holders can short or wait for correction to go long [11]. - **Arbitrage**: The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, short after the rebound; go long on P1 - 5 at low prices; OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads of Y 1 - 5, P 1 - 5, OI 1 - 5, as well as the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]