Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

棕榈油月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 增产周期格局下 棕榈油或震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]