今年国民经济发展计划重视兼顾新兴产业培育和供求关系调节，在化解产业结构性矛盾方面做出更 多部署，新质生产力培育的重心也有进有退。扩内需政策重心仍聚焦基建、制造业投资、消费，促 消费不仅加大以旧换新实施力度，还在收入端推出更多措施，扩投资更强调提高效益，边际上增加 对土地和地产收储的支持，并给地方更多自主权。财政预算报告方面，今年广义财政支出增速较前 几年明显提升，主要受益于第二本账发力。消费税征收环节后移并下划地方、新业态税收制度改革 有望在今年逐渐落地，前者有助于缓解地方收支占比不平衡的矛盾，减轻生产企业资金压力，并引 导地方改善消费环境，后者的目的一方面可能是平衡新业态和传统业态的税负，另一方面也可能意 在减轻新业态相关税收向大城市过度集中，以及税收征管困难等问题。 ▍ 今年国民经济发展计划重视兼顾新兴产业培育和供求关系调节，在化解产业结构性矛盾方面做 出更多部署，新质生产力培育的重心也有进有退。 近年来偏低的物价环境在一定程度是由于产业结构性矛盾引起，国民经济报告在制定物价目标时 提出"改善供求关系，使价格总水平处在合理区间"。相应的，国民经济报告对化解产业结构性矛 盾做出更多部署，重点提及石油化工（减 ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, the highest since the implementation of active fiscal policies in 2008, reflecting a strong commitment to economic recovery[2] - The total deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion, significantly higher than last year's 1.6 trillion, indicating a substantial increase in fiscal spending[2] - Special bonds are planned at 4.4 trillion, exceeding last year's 500 billion, while the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds will increase to 1.3 trillion, up from 300 billion last year[2] Economic Impact - The increase in the deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long bonds collectively amounts to 11.86 trillion, surpassing last year's total of 8.96 trillion by 2.9 trillion, indicating a robust fiscal stimulus[2] - The 1.3 trillion ultra-long bonds, 500 billion special bonds, and 4.4 trillion special bonds correspond to an increase in the deficit rate by 0.9, 0.4, and 3.1 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall deficit rate of 8.4% for 2025, higher than last year's 6.6%[2] Policy Objectives - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand total demand, optimize supply structure, stabilize expectations, and mitigate economic risks, particularly in real estate and finance[3] - The government emphasizes the importance of enhancing transfer payments to local governments, ensuring basic public services, and alleviating fiscal pressures at the grassroots level[12] Structural Reforms - The report highlights the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms, including zero-based budgeting and consumption tax reforms, to improve fiscal efficiency and support high-quality development[16] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to increase efficiency and effectiveness, with a notable rise in spending on healthcare, education, and social security, which accounted for 39.7% of the general public budget in 2024, up 4.4 percentage points from 2013[14]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand and consumption as a primary strategy for economic growth, with a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][3][9] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target is set at approximately 5%, balancing the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improved living standards, while aligning with long-term development goals [3][4] - The report indicates that achieving a 5% growth rate is feasible due to a large domestic market and recent positive economic indicators [4][11] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed at around 4%, with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic growth [6][7][8] - The report outlines plans for issuing special bonds and local government bonds to finance infrastructure and support consumption [6][10] Consumption and Domestic Demand - The report prioritizes boosting consumption and investment efficiency, aiming to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth [9][11] - Specific measures include implementing special actions to enhance consumption, improving the consumption environment, and increasing residents' income [9][12] Investment Strategies - The government plans to enhance effective investment by focusing on key projects and ensuring proper funding allocation to prevent inefficient investments [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of private investment and encourages public-private partnerships in infrastructure and social services [10][16] Reforms and Market Environment - The report highlights the need for significant reforms to create a fair and vibrant market environment, particularly in supporting the private economy and improving the fiscal and tax systems [14][15][16] - It stresses the importance of addressing barriers to market entry and competition, particularly in the context of "involution" in various industries [18][19] Future Industries and Technological Development - The government work report outlines plans to advance future industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital economy sectors, to enhance consumer experiences and drive economic growth [20][21] - There is a focus on integrating new technologies into traditional industries to create new employment opportunities and stimulate economic activity [20][21]

罕见大阳线，今天回大血了。 两市成交9000亿，市场中位数上涨3.18%，最离谱的是北上通道今天净买入195亿，这个数据在单日净入额的历史里可以排进前十，昨天刚说年度累计即 将跌成负数，结果今天就充了一笔大的，就是这195亿不知道是真外资，还是回援的境外官兵。 从可靠的信息源找不到今天有什么特别的重大利好，资本市场有时候就是这么诡异，没来由的突然崩你一脸，也可能突然就拉一波大的。但要说很乐观的 话也没有，因为即便今天涨完，大盘整体也就恢复到上周一的水平。 等于是今天一天，把过去1个半星期挖的坑填回去了。 当然了，还有一个重大区别，就是市场的心态不一样了。这一轮从5月中旬反弹见顶后开始下跌，持续阴跌了将近3个月，期间退2进1，最多只有小幅度的 反弹。这让空头持续的获得正反馈，砸的肆无忌惮，今天是三个月来它们第一次受到有足够痛感的惩罚。 让我有些意外的是，今天消息出来后，航运价格倒是没咋反应，并没有出现反弹。 4 、日本央行意外加息15个基点，利率升至0.15-0.25%区间。目的应该是维护一下汇率，受此消息刺激日元跳涨1.7%，整个7月份，日元是全球 表现最好的货币。日本经济的进一步复苏，会让日本政府下决心推进 ...

今天从太原出发，坐40分钟高铁到平遥古城。 我很早就听说过它，一座穷到没钱改建的城市，却因此幸运的保留下了原汁原味的古城。九十年代的时候抓住时代的机遇，历时五年冲刺，最后成功的申 请了世界文化遗产，一举逆天改命。 据说那一年专家团都更看好丽江古城，认为平遥陪跑的概率更大，但最后两家都成功获选，平遥的排名还要靠前一些，中国第14个世遗。 我订了下午2点的《又见平遥》的演出门票，现场入口人头涌动，我妈小声和我说，尽量往前挤挤，等下可以抢个好位置。就在她努力往前蛄蛹的时 候，边上维持秩序的工作人员来了一句，不要挤！演出没有座位！全是站着看！ 哈哈，当时我直接笑出了声。 我尝试着离开舞台中央，去边边角角探索，结果在僻静的角落里看到个女演员在缝鞋底。她看到我用手机拍照，就抬头问我公子买鞋底吗？ 我愣了一下，笑了，说公子穿凉鞋，不用鞋底。家人们，这种沉浸式互动的感觉很特别，能get到嘛？ 看完演出时间还早，就约了个导游逛古城。平遥景区里目前依然住了3万左右当地居民，大都是老人，年轻人都跑出去了。景区长和宽都是1.5公里左右， 外面包着十几米高的城墙。我暗暗把老家临海古城墙和这里比了一下，觉得还是有差距的。我们那是一段，它 ...