Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving consumption patterns of young people in 2025, highlighting a dual trend of both consumption downgrade and upgrade, where over 50% acknowledge downgrading while 70% claim to be upgrading their consumption [7][9]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Young consumers are increasingly prioritizing immediate gratification over long-term savings, focusing on experiences rather than ownership [12][15]. - The cities with the most significant consumption upgrades are Wuhan (84.6%), Suzhou (81.8%), and Changsha (76.9%) [12][13]. - Young people are spending on experiences that provide emotional returns, such as concerts and travel, with 64.1% willing to spend over 1,000 yuan on concerts [37][41]. Group 2: Emotional Spending - Young individuals are using shopping as a coping mechanism for stress, with over 90% purchasing plush toys for emotional comfort [18][23]. - The trend of seeking "low-risk intimacy" through plush toys indicates a desire for emotional support during tough times [23][26]. - The rise of metaphysical consumption reflects a search for psychological reassurance rather than scientific explanations [20][26]. Group 3: Fitness and Health - Fitness has become an integral part of young people's lives, with a focus on enjoyment and stress relief rather than just weight loss [29][32]. - The average monthly budget for fitness does not exceed 1,000 yuan, indicating a practical approach to health expenditures [31]. Group 4: Gender Dynamics in Spending - Traditional gender stereotypes in spending are being challenged, with both men and women diversifying their purchases across categories like fitness, skincare, and technology [44][48]. - Approximately 70% of consumers prioritize quality over brand, with men leaning towards brand trust and women valuing word-of-mouth [46]. Group 5: Financial Awareness - Young consumers are becoming more strategic with their spending, often opting for budget-friendly alternatives and DIY solutions [55][58]. - The average budget for a down jacket is 1,146.4 yuan, showing a calculated approach to clothing purchases [56]. Group 6: Redefining Consumption - Young people are redefining what it means to spend money, focusing on experiences, comfort, and self-pleasure rather than merely following trends [61][62]. - The article emphasizes that spending is not just about products but about creating personal meaning and emotional value in a complex world [61][62].

经济学家张维迎说："这世界并非注定如此，它之所以如此是 因为有人做了一些与众不同的事"。 作者：宋笛 封图：本报资料室 编者按：2025年，经济观察报以"我们的四分之一世纪"为年终特刊主题，旨在通过数十位时代亲 历者的故事，共绘一幅属于这段岁月的集体记忆图谱。本文系特刊卷首语。 经济观察 世界并非注定如此 宋笛|文 这可能是人类历史上最热闹的一晚, 1999年12月31日,从纽约到北京从伦敦 到上海,人们要集在一起,等待千禧年的到来, 这是新世纪的开端,高速唱长的经济与全 球化和技术进步交织,蒸磁着一种异常乐观的 十禧氛围,各种机调以平年可得, 当跨年钟声响起时,18岁的张悦然养在 济南泉城广场欢呼的人群中,次年,她就在新 概念作文出赛上盒奖,H了个人小说集,或为 和韩寒、郭敏明一样的"80后作家 2001 年,25岁的许知远加人刚刚创刊的 《经济观察报》,成为这家精鱼报纸的丰管 2004年,刚毕业的时晓曦进人还如日中 天的诺基亚,成为首批本土设计师。两年后,他 参与了语基亚 1200的设计,这款当时的冷厂 机型最后在全球卖了 1.5 亿台。 新柱纪初,中国大龙上涌动着一种改变的 情绪。90年代的改革锐气仍存 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that young consumers are redefining their spending habits, balancing between saving and spending for immediate gratification and experiences [4][5][8] - Young consumers are increasingly willing to spend on experiences that provide emotional satisfaction, such as concerts and travel, rather than just material goods [41][44] - The article identifies seven major trends in young consumer spending, highlighting a shift towards prioritizing personal enjoyment and emotional returns on investment [4][12][48] Group 2 - Over 50% of young people admit to a downgrade in consumption, yet 70% still believe they are upgrading their spending in certain areas [5][8] - Cities like Wuhan, Suzhou, and Changsha show the most significant signs of consumption upgrades among young people, with percentages reaching 84.6%, 81.8%, and 76.9% respectively [11][12] - Young consumers are increasingly focused on immediate happiness and personal experiences, valuing emotional ROI over long-term savings [12][14] Group 3 - The article notes that over 90% of young people have purchased plush toys as a form of emotional comfort, indicating a trend towards seeking low-risk emotional support through spending [17][23] - Young consumers are also engaging in "mystical consumption," where they turn to spiritual practices for psychological reassurance, reflecting a broader trend of seeking comfort in uncertain times [20][26] - Fitness has become an integral part of young people's lives, with a focus on enjoyment and stress relief rather than just physical appearance [29][32] Group 4 - The spending patterns of young men and women are evolving, with both genders increasingly investing in traditionally gendered categories, breaking down stereotypes [44][48] - Young consumers are prioritizing quality over brand loyalty, with 70% considering product quality when making purchases [46] - The article highlights that young people are not just passive consumers but are actively creating their own consumption rules, focusing on emotional value and rational spending [62][63]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that while China's consumption market shows growth in data, the actual consumer sentiment remains weak, with a significant increase in household savings indicating a preference for saving over spending [1] - In the first eleven months of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by approximately 4.0% year-on-year, while per capita disposable income and consumption also rose [1] - Consumer confidence has remained low, with the consumer confidence index fluctuating around 89 points, significantly below the long-term average of 108.77 [1] Group 2 - The home appliance and automotive markets experienced a cumulative growth of nearly 14.8% and 6.1% respectively in the first eleven months of 2025, driven by policies like "trade-in for new" [4] - However, in November, retail sales for these categories dropped by 19.4% and 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a typical consequence of policy stimulus [5][6] - The increase in automotive trade-in applications exceeded 11.2 million vehicles, accounting for over one-third of total sales, suggesting that much of the growth was due to preemptive demand rather than new demand [7] Group 3 - The dining sector has seen a significant shift, with approximately 75% of new takeaway orders priced below 15 yuan, indicating a trend towards cost-saving [9] - The number of high-end restaurants has halved over the past three years, with major cities like Shenzhen and Beijing experiencing reductions of 57% and 47% respectively [9] - Consumers are increasingly skeptical about the value of higher-priced dining options, leading to a preference for more affordable choices [9] Group 4 - The travel market in 2025 saw a 20.6% year-on-year increase in domestic travel, but spending growth was only 15.2%, indicating a trend of more travelers spending less [11][12] - During peak travel periods, such as the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased by 1.23 million, yet overall spending only grew by 3% [12] - Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, with airlines and hotels hesitant to raise prices during peak seasons [12] Group 5 - The micro-short drama market is projected to exceed 68 billion yuan in 2025, significantly outpacing the film industry's total box office of 50 billion yuan [16] - The average daily usage time for micro-short dramas reached 120.5 minutes, while movie attendance frequency has declined, with 60% of viewers attending only once a year [17] - The concentration of box office revenue is increasing, with 55% of total box office revenue captured by the top five films in 2025, the highest in a decade [17] Group 6 - In the fast-moving consumer goods sector, prices have been declining, with an average price growth rate of -2.4% in the first three quarters of 2025 [20] - The focus of consumers has shifted from brand loyalty to channel trust, with discount stores and private labels rapidly expanding [21] - Consumers are prioritizing functional utility over brand prestige, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior towards more stable and reliable products [21] Group 7 - Instant retail is experiencing rapid growth, with platforms like Meituan and JD.com emphasizing delivery speed, aiming for delivery within 30 minutes [24] - The instant retail market is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 18% [24] Group 8 - Gold prices surged by 70% in 2025, significantly outpacing income growth, leading to a decline in gold jewelry consumption by 25% in 2024 and 26% in the first half of 2025 [33] - The demand for gold bars and coins has increased, reflecting a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [33] Group 9 - The white wine market is showing signs of fatigue, with inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, indicating a significant slowdown in consumption [36] - Younger consumers are distancing themselves from traditional drinking cultures, preferring craft and low-alcohol beverages that emphasize casual social interactions [37] - In contrast, new consumer products like Labubu are thriving, with a turnover rate of only 83 days, appealing to younger demographics seeking cultural identity [39] Group 10 - The overall consumption landscape in 2025 reflects a shift towards defensive consumption, where consumers prioritize certainty and stability over aspirational spending [40] - The willingness to spend is being weighed against the need for risk management, leading to a more cautious approach to consumption [41]

编者按： 2025 年，经济观察报以 " 我们的四分之一世纪 " 为年终特刊主题，旨在通过数十位时代亲历者 的故事，共绘一幅属于这段岁月的集体记忆图谱。本文系特刊卷首语。 （原标题：世界并非注定如此｜我们的四分之一世纪） 一 这可能是人类历史上最热闹的一晚。 1999年12月31日，从纽约到北京、从伦敦到上海，人们聚集在一起，等待千禧年的到来。 这是新世纪的开端，高速增长的经济与全球化和技术进步交织，蒸腾着一种异常乐观的千禧氛围，各种 机遇似乎唾手可得。 当跨年钟声响起时，18岁的张悦然挤在济南泉城广场欢呼的人群中，次年，她就在新概念作文比赛上拿 奖，出了个人小说集，成为和韩寒、郭敬明一样的"80后作家"。 2001年，25岁的许知远加入刚刚创刊的《经济观察报》，成为这家橙色报纸的主笔。 2004年，刚毕业的时晓曦进入还如日中天的诺基亚，成为首批本土设计师。两年后，他参与了诺基亚 1200的设计，这款当时的冷门机型最后在全球卖了1.5亿台。 新世纪初，中国大地上涌动着一种改变的情绪。90年代的改革锐气仍存，社会愿意给提出问题的人更多 空间。 2000年，37岁的湖北监利县棋盘乡党委书记李昌平写了一夜的信，信里 ...

这年头的消费观彻底反了！消费者手头宽裕时，挑手机挑花眼，安卓旗舰、折叠屏换着尝鲜，未必看得 上iPhone；可一旦钱包收紧，反而扎堆冲苹果，甚至宁愿分期也要拿下，这不是玄学，是当下手机市场 最真实的现状。 为啥会出现这种反差？核心就藏在"没钱时更怕亏"的消费心理里。有钱的时候，大家追求新鲜感，国产 旗舰的百瓦快充、一英寸大底、炫酷折叠形态，随便一个卖点都能勾起换机欲，花几千块尝鲜不心疼， iPhone的稳重反而成了"没新意"。可没钱了就不一样，每一分钱都要花在刀刃上，比起花里胡哨的功 能，大家更看重"确定性"——能不能用得久、会不会掉价快、用着省心不折腾。 而iPhone恰恰踩中了这份"务实刚需"。一部iPhone正常用四五年不卡顿，iOS系统的流畅度和长期优化， 是多数安卓机比不了的。身边不少人三年前的iPhone 14，如今刷视频、办公依旧丝滑，反观同期的安 卓旗舰，要么卡顿闪退，要么早就停更系统。没钱的时候，没人想一年一换机，比起花3000买个用两年 就卡的安卓，咬咬牙买个6000的iPhone，平摊到每年反而更划算，这是实打实的"长期性价比"。 更关键的是iPhone的保值率，堪称手机界的"硬通货"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stark contrast in China's consumer market in 2025, highlighting a significant divide between thriving companies and those that have collapsed, marking a shift from a "growth at all costs" mentality to a focus on efficiency and sustainability in business models [5][6][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, the consumer market experienced a "violent clearing," with many once-prominent unicorns collapsing, signaling the end of an era characterized by unsustainable growth strategies [6][8]. - The year 2025 is described as a "tombstone" for new consumption, as the last illusions surrounding high prices and influencer-driven brands were shattered, exemplified by the downfall of brands like Zhong Xuegao [8][9]. - The collapse of established giants like Christine and Xu Li Shan reflects a failure to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, leading to their eventual exit from the market [9][10]. Group 2: Survivors and New Trends - Despite the failures, a new wave of companies thrived in 2025, particularly in the new tea beverage sector, with brands like Mixue Ice City and Tea Baidao successfully going public [15][16]. - The success of these companies is attributed to their focus on supply chain efficiency and cost control, moving away from traditional notions of craftsmanship to a more industrialized approach [16][17]. - The "lipstick effect" emerged as consumers shifted spending from large purchases to small, affordable pleasures, benefiting brands like Bubble Mart and new tea beverage companies [18]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - The investment landscape in 2025 saw a dramatic reduction in financing activities, with only 74 rounds of funding compared to 133 in the previous year, indicating a shift away from reckless spending [23][24]. - The restaurant sector remained a focal point for investment, accounting for 45 out of the 74 financing rounds, as capital sought safety in high-frequency, essential consumer needs [24][26]. - Brands that demonstrated strong supply chain control and technological integration, such as those in the coffee sector, began to attract significant investment, reflecting a new focus on efficiency and innovation [27][28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the consumer market in 2026 will prioritize global distribution over domestic expansion, as companies seek to leverage their efficiencies in international markets [31][32]. - The survival of brands in the coming years will depend on their ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions, emphasizing the importance of supply chain management and genuine consumer engagement [33][34].

以下文章来源于波波夫同学 ，作者波波夫 波波夫同学 . 关注被技术异化的世界 本文来自微信公众号： 波波夫同学 ，作者：波波夫，原文标题：《满大街的骆驼，也无法解释即将 过去的2025》，题图来自：视觉中国 今年冬天，如果骆驼说自己是中国卖得第二火的羽绒服，可能没人敢说是第一了。 之前，我对骆驼品牌的印象不深。但最近挤地铁时，在一片黑压压的羽绒服中，就数CAMEL的logo 最多，这些移动的人行广告牌，让我对这个品牌产生了好奇。 我上拼多多搜了下骆驼羽绒服，第一屏推送的商品里，最靠前的关键词分别是，"王俊凯同款""直播 间同款""小红书同款"，骆驼流行的原因，感觉一下子找到了。 王俊凯拍了下骆驼的屁股 2024年，骆驼签了王俊凯做品牌代言人。 王俊凯的微博有1.09亿粉丝，抖音的粉丝也超过了8000万，如果再算上小红书之类的社交平台，全 网粉丝总量应可能都超过了2亿。 这对于任何消费品牌而言，都是一个能直接触达海量优质年轻客群、并快速提升品牌形象的强大媒 介。如果你是骆驼的市场负责人，你大概也会选王俊凯代言，让他帮忙提升骆驼品牌在年轻消费者心 中的时尚感和品质感。 骆驼的核心目标人群，多为18～25岁追求性价 ...

服装丨市场观察 本周看点： -2025上半年内衣上市企业整体态势：微增长下的分化； -冲刺第四季度！奢侈品牌纷纷加码中国市场； -中国男装巨头，摸着安踏、李宁过河。 行业环境 1.2025上半年内衣上市企业整体态势：微增长下的分化 关键词 ： 微增长,消费降级,营收分化,净利润下滑,渠道优化 概要 ： 2025年上半年，中国内衣行业在消费市场缓慢复苏背景下呈现"微增长、强分化"特 征。受消费降级影响，中高端需求疲软，多数企业面临"增收不增利"困境，净利润下滑普遍高 于营收降幅。渠道方面，线下门店大规模优化（如安莉芳净关店50家），线上渠道成为增长引 擎（都市丽人电商复购率达25%）。产品策略呈现两极分化：汇洁股份通过"可调节肩带"等技 术提升毛利率，浪莎则凭借高性价比实现利润逆增。供应链企业如维珍妮表现稳健，代工业务 维持5%-8%增长。行业整体向成本管控、渠道融合和数据化运营转型，寻求理性消费环境下的 新平衡点。 2.冲刺第四季度！奢侈品牌纷纷加码中国市场 关键 词 ： 奢侈品 市场,中国市场,稳定趋势,第四季度,活跃度 概要 ： 贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品行业协会（Altagamma）联合报告显示，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the global tire industry is facing cost pressures due to trade changes in the U.S. and Europe, which could lead to a consumption downgrade trend in local markets, creating a demand for high-cost-performance products [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand structure shows significant room for domestic tire companies to replace foreign brands, with unknown overseas tire companies holding nearly 50% market share in lower-tier markets [2]. - The mid-term outlook suggests that domestic tire companies are expected to gradually replace 1/2 tier well-known brands due to improved brand strength and high-end product offerings starting in 2026 [2]. - The performance of semi-steel tires is strong, with a gross margin close to 30%, indicating a high value-added consumer product [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - From 2026, leading domestic tire companies will implement a global scattered production layout, allowing them to switch production bases in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas to avoid trade barriers [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the performance of leading domestic tire companies will see a significant increase in both volume and profit due to this strategic expansion [1][4]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Perspectives - In the short term, the focus should be on tracking production capacity utilization and cost factors, including trade policies, raw material prices, shipping costs, and exchange rates [3]. - The long-term perspective indicates a favorable market structure with substantial replacement potential, as domestic tire companies currently hold only 30% market share domestically and 20% internationally [2]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that after the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese tires captured over 20% of the U.S. market due to their cost-performance advantage, highlighting the potential for similar trends following current trade changes [3]. - The report predicts that by 2026, domestic tire companies will significantly enhance their market presence in high-end segments, potentially raising the valuation multiples from PE 10 to 20x [4][5].