作者：今纶 段永平最近买入贵州茅台股票，花了1亿元，要不要跟？我不跟。茅台股价已经1500元了，要不要跟？我不跟。要不要做空茅台？我不玩期货，不进A 股，所以，也不做空茅台。 段永平表示，不打算拿十年的"投资"最好就不要碰，不要想着市场或者风口啥的。我作为一个趋势投资者+价值投资者很欣赏段永平的"十年心态"，我做 投资很少折腾，看好的就直接加仓，或者定投，无论涨跌，基本上已经没有什么韭性。 净利润增速暴跌，人口减少，富人更重视健康且消费降级，你觉得茅台未来会如何？ 不过，此时此刻，我并不认同段永平加仓茅台的行为。有人说，茅台分红高，买了等分红就好了，这是错的。如果你买在2300元，现在只有1500元，你等 分红要等多少年？这个里面还有继续下跌的风险。你怎么知道1500元买了不会跌到900元？ ▲茅台2月6日上午收盘股价 我看到有基金经理说："白酒的需求侧正在经历一轮重构，民间需求的成长又要跟随经济周期的节奏。"他没说经济周期有多长，万一很长呢？他说："基 于对中国资产的乐观判断，白酒或是性价比很高的一个板块"，真的不知道他哪来的乐观和自信。 我说一下我的观点，我看空白酒行业和茅台，原因很简单，数据在说话。 国 ...

Sales Performance - Fast Retailing's Uniqlo business in Japan reported a same-store and e-commerce sales increase of 14% year-on-year in January, driven by strong sales of winter products due to lower temperatures[4] - Customer traffic increased by 7.5% year-on-year, with average transaction value rising by 6%[4] Product Insights - Best-selling women's items included Heattech innerwear, seamless down jackets, and sweatpants[4] - Best-selling men's items included Heattech innerwear, sweatpants, and Pufftech series products[4] Store Operations - No new stores were opened in January, while 9 stores were closed[4] - The next same-store sales data will be released on March 3, and the next quarterly financial report is scheduled for April 9[4] Market Overview - Fast Retailing operates over 2,300 stores globally, including 1,585 Uniqlo stores, and emphasizes value for money amid Japan's consumption downgrade trend[8] - The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in Asia, and positions e-commerce as a core business[8] Financial Metrics - As of February 3, 2026, the stock price was 62,020.0 JPY, with a market capitalization of 128.31 billion USD[11] - The 12-month high and low stock prices were 65,160.0 JPY and 41,650.0 JPY, respectively[11]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around **Oppein Home Group**, a company in the **home furnishing and decoration industry**. The focus is on the impact of government subsidies and market dynamics on the company's performance and strategies. Key Points and Arguments Impact of Government Subsidies - The government subsidy policy is expected to phase out from **Q3 2024 to June 2025**, creating a baseline pressure on performance until **Q1 2026** [1] - The reduction in subsidy strength has negatively affected consumer purchasing willingness and overall business performance [2] - The company anticipates that the abnormal fluctuations caused by the subsidy reduction will stabilize by **March-April 2026** [2] Business Strategy and Consumer Demand - The company is adapting its business deployment and channel layout in response to the weak subsidy environment, focusing on cost-effective products and popular SKUs [2] - The company has accumulated experience in dealing with policy changes and external market conditions, allowing for a more proactive approach compared to previous years [3] Market Conditions and Consumer Behavior - The real estate sector has been in a downturn for **4-5 years**, affecting consumer purchasing behavior and expectations [3] - The overall industry sentiment is at a low point, but there is a belief that the worst is over, and concerns are diminishing [4] Transformation and Channel Management - Approximately **60-70%** of Oppein's distributors are participating in the transformation towards a more integrated home furnishing model [7] - The transition from single-product stores to integrated home furnishing stores is expected to take **1.5 to 2 years**, with varying speeds based on the capabilities of individual distributors [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing the capabilities of its distributors to support this transformation [8] Performance Metrics and Growth Expectations - The company does not set specific revenue targets for the retail home furnishing business, viewing it as a developmental phase aimed at supporting distributor transformation [11] - The retail home furnishing segment is expected to achieve over **100% growth** in 2025, with overall revenue projected to reach **over 10 billion** [10] Profitability and Margin Management - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with improvements driven by operational efficiencies and supply chain management [43] - The company aims to maintain a gross margin that is **2-3 percentage points** lower than traditional retail margins, with a target gross margin of around **30%** for the integrated home furnishing business [28] Challenges and Risks - The company acknowledges the challenges faced by distributors, with about **50-70%** of them remaining profitable despite market pressures [25] - The company is monitoring accounts receivable closely, with a significant portion linked to the large-scale business, and expects to manage potential impairment risks effectively [41] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the performance of its large-scale business will exceed the expected decline in construction activity, with a projected gross margin of **25-28%** and net profit around **9-10%** [39] - The company is committed to a dynamic adjustment strategy to maintain profitability while responding to market conditions [45] New Business Initiatives - The establishment of three joint ventures aims to enhance operational flexibility and incentivize growth in semi-mature business areas [34][36] - The joint ventures are expected to break existing business constraints and encourage a more aggressive growth strategy [36] Additional Important Insights - The company is adapting to changes in consumer behavior, particularly the shift towards more cost-effective materials and products due to economic pressures [20][21] - The competitive landscape includes non-custom brands gaining traction, prompting the company to refine its value proposition [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and its outlook for future growth.

Investment Rating - The report aligns with the views of CITIC Securities and CLSA, indicating a cautious outlook on the Asia-Pacific cosmetics industry, particularly in China and Japan [5]. Core Insights - Chinese consumers are taking longer to decide on beauty products, leading to potential sales growth as they expand their product portfolios, but price sensitivity is a key consideration [5]. - In Japan, cosmetic consumption is under pressure, with consumers accepting some degree of product downgrading, necessitating a focus on select winners for investors [5]. - The "golden age" of skincare is partially over, with evidence suggesting that companies can build sustainable brand recognition and defensible brand assets, but consumer attention has been diluted by an influx of new products [8]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The overall cosmetics market in China is expected to see year-on-year growth by 2025, with a slight improvement compared to 2024. Leading foreign brands have gained market share, but tourism retail sales have contracted, impacting operating profit margins and stock prices [6]. - The willingness of Chinese consumers to pursue high-end products has cooled for the first time, with brand loyalty at a historical low and price factors becoming increasingly critical [7]. Brand Dynamics - Brands need to adapt to changing consumer attitudes amid a trend of consumption downgrading, with 2026 identified as a pivotal year for the industry [7]. - Effective marketing strategies, including word-of-mouth recommendations and new product launches, continue to influence purchasing decisions [7]. Competitive Landscape - Japanese companies like Shiseido, Kose, and Kao are seeking to enhance profitability by shifting focus to e-commerce and reducing fixed costs, despite challenges from reduced Chinese tourist sales and changes in duty-free policies [9].

文 | 庄鑫 1月30日，西安旅游股份有限公司（简称西安旅游，股票代码000610.SZ）发布2025年度业绩预告，预计 2025年归母净利润亏损2.37-2.90亿元，扣非净利润亏损2.11亿-2.66亿元。 根据公告，本会计年度末，归属于母公司所有者权益预计为-5331.74万元至-31.74万元，而上年末所有 者权益为2.37亿元。若所有者权益（净资产）由正转负，意味着公司已资不抵债。 | | | | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | -29.000 | ﺏ | -23. 700 | -26, 033. 68 | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | -26, 550 | 2 | -21. 065 | -26, 156. 19 | | 基本每股收益(元/ 股) | -1.2249 | ﺏ | -1.0011 | -1. 0996 | | 营业收入(如适 用) | 51,500 | 2 | 59, 500 | 58. 215. 59 | | 项目 | 本会计年度末 | | | 上年末 | | ...

以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者面二 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味 中国三甲医院，批量征服"外国中产"。 文 ｜ 面二 编辑 ｜ 章鱼 来源｜ 凤凰网WEEKLY（ID：phoenixweekly） 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 来中国旅行，过去一年的外网 流量密码。 外网的" 中国旅游三件套"，甚至经历过两次迭代。 最开始，外网博主们来中国的必打卡项目还是：线上支付、高铁速度、酒店机器人。 这半年， 老外的 中国旅游新三件套 变成了：牙医、眼科、中医理疗。 TikTok的"Medical Tourism（医疗旅游）"的标签下，大批外国人摩拳擦掌准备到中国看病。 而他们的必打卡目的地，也新增了一个 三甲医院。 2024年，深圳为境外人士提供诊疗 服务77万人次，其中包括港澳人士64万人次，其余的则来自美国、加拿大、日本等国家。 上海13家指定医院接诊外籍患者近27万， 同比增长15%。 据国家卫生健康委员会2025年度涉外医疗服务报告显示：国内重点涉外医院全年接诊国际患者达128万人次，较三年前增长73.6%。 来中国边旅游边看病，正在成为一种风靡外网的新潮流。 新一批来中国旅游的外国 ...

本报告期，公司业绩变动的主要原因为受消费降级影响，酒店板块入住率与平均房价同步下滑，收入规 模收缩；而酒店运营所产生的物业租金、水电费用、人力成本等固定成本具有刚性特征，无法随收入下 滑同步缩减，导致收入下滑不足以覆盖上述固定运营开支。同时，降本增效措施所产生的成效，未能有 效对冲收入端的降幅，叠加奥莱板块低效资产减值影响；同时，扎尕那项目销售价格未达预期，公司基 于谨慎性原则，对该项目相关存货计提大额跌价准备，上述资产相关减值及摊销计提进一步侵蚀了本期 利润，导致本期出现亏损。 格隆汇1月30日丨西安旅游(000610.SZ)发布2025年度业绩预告，报告期内，归属于上市公司股东的净利 润为亏损2.37亿元—2.90亿元，上年同期亏损2.60亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损2.11亿元— 2.66亿元，上年同期亏损2.62亿元。 ...

格隆汇1月30日丨西安旅游(000610.SZ)发布2025年度业绩预告，报告期内，归属于上市公司股东的净利 润为亏损2.37亿元—2.90亿元，上年同期亏损2.60亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损2.11亿元— 2.66亿元，上年同期亏损2.62亿元。 本报告期，公司业绩变动的主要原因为受消费降级影响，酒店板块入住率与平均房价同步下滑，收入规 模收缩；而酒店运营所产生的物业租金、水电费用、人力成本等固定成本具有刚性特征，无法随收入下 滑同步缩减，导致收入下滑不足以覆盖上述固定运营开支。同时，降本增效措施所产生的成效，未能有 效对冲收入端的降幅，叠加奥莱板块低效资产减值影响；同时，扎尕那项目销售价格未达预期，公司基 于谨慎性原则，对该项目相关存货计提大额跌价准备，上述资产相关减值及摊销计提进一步侵蚀了本期 利润，导致本期出现亏损。 ...

西安旅游公告，预计2025年度净利润为负值，归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计为-2.9亿元至-2.37亿 元，上年同期为-2.6亿元。预计期末净资产为负值，归属于母公司所有者权益预计为-5331.74万元 至-31.74万元，上年末为2.37亿元。业绩变动主要原因为受消费降级影响，酒店板块入住率与平均房价 同步下滑，收入规模收缩；同时，扎尕那项目销售价格未达预期，公司对该项目相关存货计提大额跌价 准备。根据公司本次业绩预告，预计2025年度期末归属于母公司净资产可能为负值。若公司2025年度经 审计的期末归属于母公司净资产为负值，公司股票交易可能在2025年年度报告披露后被实施退市风险警 示。 ...

汇丰发布研报称，近期金属及存储芯片等上游原材料价格急升，预料将在短期内为汽车厂商带来显著成 本压力，由于电动车的原材料使用密度更高，生产商面临阻力将更大，其中锂价在过去三个月飙升约 127%，估计金属材料的价格上涨可能导致每辆车成本增加3,000至5,000元人民币，而存储芯片涨价或带 来额外1,000至3,000元人民币的成本，直接对电动车的成本结构造成打击。 智通财经APP获悉，汽车股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，广汽集团(02238)跌3.69%，报3.65港元；长城汽车 (02333)跌2.66%，报13.19港元；理想汽车-W(02015)跌2.58%，报65.95港元。 该行指出，此轮价格上涨主要源于供应瓶颈，相信在消费降级趋势及第一季传统淡季下，车企较难将成 本转嫁给对价格敏感度较高的消费者，企业将要通过垂直整合及技术升级来吸收额外成本，亦可能要依 靠营运手段，包括与供应商谈判更大幅度的年度降价等。 ...