银行板块则受益于可观的增量资金，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资金流入，银行高权重的 特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，另一方面银行板块低波高股息的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青 睐，结合监管一系列引导中长期资金入市的措施，预计银行的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。 值得一提的是，在今年以来的牛市行情中，券商与银行都是"人少的地方"。尤其是券商板块年内明显滞 涨，截至今日，券商ETF（512000）跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数年内仅微涨1.78%，同期上证指数、 深证成指、创业板指分别上涨15.4%、25.9%和46.52%，券商表现明显落后于大盘，与高增业绩显著背 离，补涨需求强烈！ | 序号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 | | | | | | [区间尾日] 最新收盘日 | | | | | | [単位] % ↑ | | | 399975.SZ | 1 证券公司 | | | 1.7800 | | 2 000001.SH 上证指数 | | | | 15.3996 | | 3 399001.S ...

华尔街正流传一个令人不安的猜想：在经历多年辉煌涨幅后，美国股市未来十年可能基本持平。 "即便对于明年，历史数据也不容乐观：标普500指数在连续3年涨幅超15%后，年均回报率将比历史均 值低2.3个百分点。投资者可能需要国内生产总值（GDP）和每股收益（EPS）超预期，才能避免第七 个'失落的十年'，"美国银行在给客户的报告中写道。 阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）也表示，他预计未来十 年标普500指数将相对持平。他周四表示，这一预测基于标普500指数当前的远期市盈率水平。 "标普500指数远期市盈率与后续十年年化回报率的历史关系表明，投资者应预期未来十年标普500指数 回报率为零，"斯洛克说。 周四，美股涨幅仍在持续。由于投资者担忧甲骨文（Oracle）财报而撤离科技股，转而推动标普500指 数（SPX）和道指（DJI）创下历史新高。 但越来越多预测人士认为，这场盛宴可能即将落幕，他们指出市场可能受两大因素拖累： 首先是估值高企。美股估值正处于历史高位。据全球市盈率（World PE Ratio）分析，标普500指数当前 市盈率约为27倍，高于5年均值 ...

Group 1 - The global macroeconomic environment has gradually improved since 2025, leading to a steady upward trend in the A-share market, with major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index rising over 20% [2] - The technology, consumer, and new energy sectors have been the main drivers of this market rally, with daily trading volume increasing by approximately 15% compared to the same period last year [2] - Equity funds have benefited from asset value growth and optimized investment strategies, with average returns for equity mixed funds exceeding 25% this year, and some thematic funds, such as those focused on artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, seeing gains over 40% [2] Group 2 - The Dachen Yuexiang Life Mixed A fund, managed by Qi Weizhong, has underperformed despite the bullish market, with a return of -12.18% since its inception on December 10, 2021 [5] - The fund's heavy allocation to traditional consumer sectors like liquor and duty-free has not performed well, as these sectors face demand ceilings, while emerging consumption areas have not been adequately represented in the portfolio [5] - The fund's performance has been negatively impacted by the weakening competitive edge of some leading companies in its holdings, while new consumer brands have rapidly gained market share [5] Group 3 - The Dachen Consumption Selected Stock A fund has also struggled, with a return of -18.82% since its inception on May 24, 2021, and a year-to-date return of 16.55% [18] - The fund has seen a consistent decline in its asset size, with net assets decreasing to 2.69 billion yuan by September 30, 2025, due to ongoing redemptions [30] - The fund's investment strategy has been criticized for not adapting to the significant changes in the consumer industry, necessitating a reassessment of its thematic focus and investment approach [5][30]

行情的级别与走向 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 research.95579.com 2 2025-11-26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 算法说明 区间最大涨幅：该时间段内从最低点到最高点曾经涨过的最大幅度 第一轮牛市：2005年6月6日至2007年10月16日 数据及算法说明 数据说明 若无特别说明，本文所用数据时间段均为2005至2025年11月14日 %% research.95579.com 3 第二轮牛市：2012年12月4日至2015年6月3日 第三轮牛市：2018年10月19日至2021年7月21日 本轮牛市：2024年2月5日至2025年11月14日 剔除检测服务行业 以一轮周线级别的行情的起点和终点定义牛熊市 全面牛市 vs 结构性牛市：不在不均，而在寡 通常认为前两轮为全面牛市，第三轮为结构性牛市 表1：四轮牛市中长江一级行业区间最大涨幅 | 名称 | 第一轮区间最大涨幅 | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days, and has resulted in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion [1] - The temporary funding bill signed by Trump only includes three annual budget appropriations, leaving nine unresolved, which may lead to another shutdown after January 30, 2026 [1] - The uncertainty from the shutdown is expected to delay long-term investment decisions by businesses and reduce consumer spending, potentially weakening the intrinsic growth of the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - The gold price closed down 0.29% at 953.2 yuan per gram, indicating a slight decline in the precious metals market [3] - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges due to the government shutdown and trade tensions, leading to increased policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve [4] - Central banks are increasing gold holdings, and there is a potential for a bull market in precious metals similar to the 1970s, although price corrections may occur after reaching new highs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong bullish trend, with significant foreign investment interest and optimistic forecasts from major financial institutions regarding future index performance [3][4][7]. Foreign Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 30% increase in major Chinese stock indices by the end of 2027, driven by 12% trend-based profit growth and a 5%-10% valuation adjustment [4]. - Morgan Stanley holds a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, with a total investment of approximately 75.70 billion yuan across 154 companies [7]. - JPMorgan has doubled its A-share holdings to approximately 79.31 billion yuan, indicating strong confidence in the market [10]. Institutional Holdings - As of October 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs has increased its holdings in A-shares to approximately 93.42 billion yuan, with 14 stocks valued over 1 billion yuan [6]. - Morgan Stanley's top holdings include companies like Si Yuan Electric and Jinko Solar, with significant year-to-date price increases [9]. - Barclays Bank has invested around 29.04 billion yuan in A-shares, focusing on technology, healthcare, and mining sectors [13]. Performance of Key Stocks - Goldman Sachs' top holdings include Hao Wei Group, Hua Gong Technology, and Xie Chuang Data, with average stock price increases of 52.97% this year [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley's top-performing stocks include Bei Fang Long Chuang and Shi Kong Technology, with increases of 360.29% and 341.75% respectively [8][9]. - UBS has invested heavily in San Huan Group, with a holding value of approximately 85.30 billion yuan, reflecting a focus on electronic components [16][17]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment among foreign investors is positive, with many believing that the A-share market is still in the early stages of a bull market, supported by ongoing asset reallocation by Chinese households [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows similarities to the 2013-2017 period, characterized by a weak fundamental environment and stimulus policies, leading to potential investment opportunities in certain sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the second half of 2014, the securities market experienced a significant rise, marking the beginning of a bull market [2]. - In the first half of 2015, small-cap and growth stocks surged, reaching bubble valuations by June 2015, followed by a sharp decline [2]. - From 2016 to 2017, a recovery in fundamentals led to increases in large-cap value and consumer stocks, surpassing previous highs by the end of 2017 [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The fundamental environment is currently weak, with A-share listed companies experiencing a year-on-year decline in profits in 2024 [3]. - Stimulus policies were introduced in September 2024, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, which included significant reductions in deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Recovery Signs - From late September to November 2024, the securities market saw a strong rebound, returning to normal valuations, with small-cap stocks showing robust growth starting in 2025 [4]. - Early signs of recovery in certain sectors, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, have been noted, with significant year-on-year profit growth [4]. Group 4: Key Differences - Unlike 2015, where leveraged financing led to a bubble in small-cap stocks, current management of leveraged financing remains strict [5]. - The real estate market is still in a bearish cycle, contrasting with the significant price increases observed in 2016-2017, which supported the real estate industry chain [5].

Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter reports from various securities firms, including Guosheng Securities, show significant revenue and profit growth, primarily driven by increased brokerage business income, indicating a robust performance across the industry [1][3][4]. Company Performance - Guosheng Securities reported a revenue of 1.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.84%, and a net profit of 242 million yuan, up 191.21% [3]. - CITIC Securities achieved a revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, a 32.7% increase, and a net profit of 23.159 billion yuan, up 37.86%, with total assets surpassing 2 trillion yuan [3]. - Dongfang Caifu reported total revenue of 4.733 billion yuan in Q3, a 100.65% increase, and a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 77.74% for the first three quarters [4]. - Hato Co., Ltd. disclosed that its subsidiary Jianghai Securities generated revenue of 811 million yuan, a 28.13% increase, and a net profit of 488 million yuan, up 140.71% [5]. Industry Trends - The overall performance of the securities industry is attributed to active market trading and supportive policies, with expectations for continued inflow of incremental funds into the market [1][7]. - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of securities firms aligns with the bullish trend in the A-share market, which has seen increased trading activity [5][6]. - The brokerage business has emerged as the core growth engine for these firms, with significant increases in commission income reported [3][4][5]. - Future performance may depend on the continuation of favorable market conditions and policy environments, as well as the impact of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent important meeting and its outcomes indicate a shift in focus towards technology and consumption, while financial markets were notably absent from discussions, leading to mixed interpretations about the implications for capital markets [3][4][6]. Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The meeting emphasized industries, technology, and consumption, with no direct mention of finance, which some interpreted as a negative signal for capital markets [3][4]. - The relationship between wealth and capital markets is crucial, as the future positioning of capital markets is expected to be as significant as real estate has been over the past 20 years [7][10]. - The actual implementation of policies post-meeting is more critical than the meeting's general statements, as specific actions will shape market dynamics [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the meeting, major indices in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced notable increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.71% to reach 3950 points, indicating market approval of the meeting's signals [12][13]. - The market's enthusiasm has waned in October compared to previous months, as institutional investors awaited the meeting's outcomes before making directional choices [15]. Group 3: Future Market Direction - Uncertainty remains due to ongoing negotiations between the US and China, which may hinder market movements until a resolution is reached [17][31]. - Institutional investors are likely to prioritize profit preservation as the year-end approaches, impacting their risk appetite and overall market direction [20]. - Government interventions in market indices have been observed, with adjustments made to maintain stability during periods of market volatility [21][22]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus for future market movements, as the meeting highlighted its importance [34][36]. - Investors are advised to manage their investment strategies by aligning with government priorities and sector rotations, particularly in defensive sectors during market downturns [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the recent important meeting's outcomes and subsequent actions are more significant than the keywords mentioned in the official communiqué, particularly regarding the capital market's future role and the relationship between wealth and capital markets [1][2]. Market Reaction - Following the meeting, major stock indices in China experienced notable increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.71% to reach 3950 points, marking a new high for the year [2][3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.57%, indicating market approval of the signals released during the meeting [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the positive market reaction, the article notes that market enthusiasm in October has been lower compared to previous months, as institutional investors awaited the meeting's outcomes before making directional choices [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. is expected to keep the market cautious, as large funds prefer certainty before making significant moves [4][7]. Institutional Behavior - As the year-end approaches, large institutions are likely to prioritize profit preservation, leading to a conservative risk appetite in the fourth quarter [5]. - The government's management of the market index has been evident, with interventions to stabilize the market during periods of high enthusiasm and to support certain sectors like banking and liquor when necessary [6][7]. Sector Focus - The article suggests that technology remains a key focus for future market movements, as it was frequently mentioned during the meeting [7][8]. - Investors are advised to manage their portfolios by allocating short-term funds to follow government actions and sector rotations while also investing long-term in technology stocks [8][9].