Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first company in China's pig farming industry to achieve an "A+H" listing, with its stock closing at HKD 40.52 per share, a 3.9% increase on the first day of trading [2][3]. Fundraising and Strategic Goals - The company raised funds through a global offering of 274 million shares at an issue price of HKD 39 per share, attracting cornerstone investors such as Charoen Pokphand Group and UBS AM Singapore, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately HKD 5.342 billion [3][4]. - 60% of the raised funds will be allocated for overseas expansion, while 30% will focus on technological innovation, and 10% will be used for operational liquidity [4]. Overseas Expansion Plans - Approximately HKD 62.76 billion will be invested in expanding the company's overseas business, including strengthening its presence in Southeast Asia and enhancing the global supply chain [4]. - The company has already established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam and is collaborating with local enterprises on a project to raise 1.6 million pigs annually [4]. Financial Performance and Market Conditions - In January 2026, Muyuan Foods sold 7.01 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 2.73%, but the average selling price dropped to RMB 12.57 per kilogram, a decline of 16.92% [8]. - The company's sales revenue for the same period was RMB 10.566 billion, down 11.93% year-on-year [8]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the full year 2025, projecting a decrease of 12.20% to 17.79% compared to the previous year, with net profit expected to be between RMB 147 billion and RMB 157 billion [10]. Market Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to undergo a market-driven capacity reduction, which may help stabilize prices in the long term [11]. - Analysts predict that seasonal demand leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival may result in a temporary rebound in pig prices, although overall supply remains abundant [11][12].

Market Overview - From mid to late January, live pig futures and spot prices experienced a smooth decline, with the LH03 contract dropping from a peak of 12,160 to below 11,000, a decrease of 1.32%. National standard pig prices fell from 13.2 yuan/kg to 11.95 yuan/kg, a drop of 9.5%, while fat pig prices decreased from 13.87 yuan/kg to 13.16 yuan/kg, down 5.1% [20][21] - The primary reason for the price shift from increase to decrease is attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a decline in the breeding sow population to 39.61 million by the end of December 2024, coupled with slow capacity reduction and diminishing demand for cured meat [20][21] Fundamental Analysis Industry Profit and Capacity Cycle - The core indicator of the pig cycle is the breeding sow inventory, with industry profitability being the key determinant of changes in this inventory. Typically, industry losses lead to capacity reduction, while profitability halts further reduction [21] - From June 2021 to June 2022, the industry faced continuous losses, resulting in a decrease in breeding sow inventory from 44 million to 41.92 million, a reduction of 2.08 million. Similarly, from December 2022 to May 2024, the inventory dropped from 43.90 million to 39.86 million, a decrease of 1.04 million [21] - The current loss period lasted from September to December, with a reduction of 740,000 sows from approximately 4.035 million to 3.961 million. The data from January indicates a slight increase in breeding sows to 5.1882 million, suggesting potential for further capacity reduction in the future [21] Piglet Price Recovery - The average price of piglets across 500 markets rose to 26.87 yuan/kg in the fifth week of January, an increase of 3.5% week-on-week, although the weekly growth rate has narrowed by 1%. Year-on-year, prices are down 23.2% [23][24] - The average price for 7 kg piglets from large-scale farms is 357.62 yuan/head, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.2% and a year-on-year drop of 33.2%. Optimism regarding capacity reduction has strengthened demand for piglets, leading to a broad price increase, although the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to limit further growth [23][24] Post-Festival Weight Increase - In December 2025 to January 2026, due to a temporary rebound in pig prices, actual slaughter exceeded targets, with over 14 million pigs slaughtered. However, plans for February show a significant reduction in slaughtering due to the Spring Festival, with a planned output of 12.0586 million pigs, a decrease of 15.33% from January [26] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered on February 6 was 123.26 kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The price gap between standard and fat pigs has widened to 1.21 yuan/kg, indicating potential for weight increases post-festival as consumption slows [26] Consumption Trends - The slaughtering rate for enterprises was reported at 38.49% for the week of February 5, an increase of 1.63 percentage points week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 27.65 percentage points. However, historical data shows that rates typically exceed 40% during this period [28] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for meat is expected to rise, leading to increased slaughtering rates and a gradual increase in the price gap between live and processed pigs [28] Futures Market Structure - The current structure of the May contract reflects a contango situation, indicating high industry inventory and sustained pressure on prices. The basis for the May contract is currently 1,075 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued weakness in the spot market [30] - The recent decline in prices has resulted in a contango structure for the first three quarters of the year, suggesting that futures prices will remain under pressure until a significant change in market conditions occurs [30] Summary and Outlook - The slow pace of capacity reduction combined with the contango structure suggests that live pig futures will remain under pressure in the long term. The pre-festival period may see increased demand, but post-festival, consumption is expected to weaken significantly while supply remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [33]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2269 CNY/ton, with an increase of 0.31%. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance phases next week, leading to a continued decline in operations [4][14] - Market trading is notably quiet, with stable positions. The main divergence lies in whether there will be concentrated volume after the holiday. Future observations will focus on the elasticity of enterprise inventory demand in the short window before recovery [4][14] - Market sentiment is shifting towards post-holiday trading, maintaining a fluctuating trend before the holiday, but there is a possibility of a slight decline. The main contract support is observed around 2250, with resistance at 2330 [5][15] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Following a call between Chinese and U.S. leaders, there is a consideration to increase U.S. soybean purchases from 12 million tons to 20 million tons for the 2025/26 season, leading to a significant rebound in CBOT soybean prices. However, South American abundant production may limit the price increase [6][16] - As Brazilian soybeans are shipped to China, market expectations of tight arrivals have been adjusted, resulting in a price correction. The May contract is supported by cost factors, performing better than the March contract [6][16] - Despite the potential increase in domestic soybean supply from continued U.S. purchases, the short-term focus may be on the cost support from the U.S. market rebound, maintaining a range trading strategy with an expected price range of 2700-2850 CNY/ton for the May contract [6][16] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas has seen a significant decline, with the average price in Hebei at approximately 3.0 CNY/jin, down 0.24 CNY/jin from the previous day. Traders may accelerate sales due to continuous price drops [7][17] - Short-term demand for pre-holiday stocking remains a key support, but post-holiday demand is a major risk. Current signs indicate a weakening in spot prices, leading to a bearish pricing trend [7][17] - Long-term attention should be on the actual progress of capacity reduction, with historical trends suggesting that 2025 could be a loss year, potentially improving supply-demand relationships in 2026 [7][17] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.12 CNY/kg. The planned output for February is 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% from January [9][19] - Despite potential fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, the futures market has already priced in expectations for a decline, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price drops [9][19] - Key observations for the 2026 market will focus on the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction, with changes in industry management potentially altering traditional "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [9][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pig market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to seasonal demand and supply pressures, with a notable rebound in prices observed in January 2026 [1][2][3] - As of December 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating slower-than-expected capacity reduction [1] - The average price of live pigs in China reached 13.30 yuan/kg in mid-January 2026, but fell to 12.08 yuan/kg by February 4, 2026, reflecting a decrease of 1.22 yuan/kg from the peak [1] Group 2 - In December 2025, 20 listed companies reported a total of 17.92 million pigs sold, an increase of 8% from the previous month, with a cumulative total of 183 million pigs sold throughout the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [1] - The average weight of pigs sold by sample enterprises was 124 kg as of January 30, 2026, which is a 0.96% increase year-on-year, indicating a potential supply pressure in the pork market [2] - The number of piglets born in December 2025 decreased by 1.32% month-on-month but increased by 8.76% year-on-year, suggesting a mixed trend in piglet production [3]

消息面上，根据iFind数据，12月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降至3961万头，较10月调减29万头，去产能效 果逐步显现。华福证券发布研报称，猪价偏弱运行，叠加产能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续， 有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。 招商证券表示，德康长期深耕于生猪及黄羽鸡养殖行业，经年累积的育种优势使得其畜禽成本领先于同 行。生猪方面，公司长期致力于成本挖潜，目前完全成本或已降至12元/千克左右，稳居行业第一梯 队；预计未来仍有压降空间。公司计划在遵循政策引导的前提下，重点发展二号家庭农场模式，联农带 动，积极响应国家号召，彰显头部猪企的责任担当。 德康农牧(02419)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.44%，报76.05港元，成交额7823.85万港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

分析师 1: 各位投资者朋友晚上好，欢迎参加财通农业组织的生猪专家电话会。我是财通证券农业分 析师江璐。那我们可以看到 2025 年，伴随这个猪价一路下跌，整个生猪养殖行业从盈利 转为亏损。能繁母猪产能也进入了一个区划的阶段。那当前时点，其实关于，对于这个 2026 年的一个猪价走势，包括说能繁母猪产能的一个后续的变动。其实还存在诸多的疑 问。那今天晚上我们有幸邀请到了农业农村部生猪预警专家，中国畜牧业协会的石守定老 师，来跟我们做一个分享。 那要不石老师，要不您先基于您监测的这个数据，或者您了解到的一个行业的一个情况， 从大的方向上，方向上来分享一下您对于这个 2026 年一个猪周期的一个走势的判断。包 括说这个猪价的一个大概的节奏，或者说这个高点的，大概这个能看到多少？要不您先分 享一下您的一个观点。 农业农村部生猪预警专家石守定: 这咱是内部的讨论的话，我们就随意的说一说说点东西。现在这个数据其实也算是比较明 了，只不过就是有一些东西出现了一些不太一致的地方。关于产能问题，现在大家其实有 分歧，但是趋势的还是比较明确的。就是整体认为，就是说从高点下来的幅度不是特别的 大。但是这个产能怎么来判断？它是对应 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．上周包括供应紧缩/饲料利空/深加工补库平淡利空等因素主导玉米03主力下行，但仍未完全消化，预计本周缓慢震荡下行。现货方面自明显触顶后，基 层的惜售情绪出现缓和，整体支撑有限。 2．本周天气情况或值得关注，东北地区普遍出现升温预报，缺乏标准储藏条件的地趴粮或加快交售进度；但由于持续性低，或将仅短暂触发现货下调，节 后来自天气方面的风险因素将提高关注频率。 3．东北方面的整体库存仍处于历史地位，未出现明显回调可能。同时今日中储粮将竞价采购12.4万吨玉米，来自政策调整方向的价格支撑依然明显。市场 对节前的备货潮期待基本归零，重心逐步转向节后积累的博弈情绪。 观点总结：供需紧平衡的局面暂未有明显的缓解趋势，节前维持震荡态势，玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方维持2330。 豆粕：中性 1．美元指数走强、宏观情绪拖累，隔夜CBOT大豆收跌。海外市场继续在阿根廷干旱引致的减产预期与巴西丰产兑现之间权衡，预报显示未来一周巴西中 西部降雨充沛，周度累计普遍在65毫米以上，有利于作物生长，但需关注是否会对收割工作造成阻碍；阿根廷布宜诺斯艾 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods, the world's largest pig farming company, is set to raise $1.5 billion through its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has stirred significant interest in the capital market [1] Financial Performance - For 2025, Muyuan's net profit is projected to reach between 15.1 billion and 16.1 billion yuan, despite a decline of 14.93% to 20.21% compared to the previous year [4][6] - The company reported a net profit of 15.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong earnings potential even in a challenging market [4] - However, after accounting for a 5 billion yuan dividend, Muyuan's cash reserves stand at only 12.3 billion yuan, highlighting a significant cash flow gap against a 30 billion yuan funding shortfall [5][11] Cash Flow Challenges - The company faces a cash flow trap due to the nature of the pig farming industry, where profits do not equate to cash availability [7] - Despite achieving a high production capacity utilization rate of 94% and 99% for pig slaughtering, the cash generated is insufficient to cover operational and debt obligations [9] - Muyuan's current liabilities amount to 76.8 billion yuan, with a current ratio below 80%, indicating a precarious liquidity position [11] Strategic Response - The IPO is primarily a liquidity rescue operation rather than an expansion strategy, aimed at addressing immediate cash flow needs [5][12] - Muyuan's strategy of increasing production during a downturn is a calculated move to generate cash flow, even if it risks potential losses if prices fall below cost [12][20] - The company aims to stabilize its cost structure by building a global supply chain for feed ingredients, which is crucial for managing price volatility [17][18] Industry Context - The pig farming industry is currently facing overcapacity and low prices, with many competitors struggling financially [12][22] - Muyuan's ability to maintain profitability while others incur losses is attributed to its lower cost structure and effective cash flow management [21][23] - The industry is expected to consolidate further, with cost and cash flow management becoming increasingly critical for survival [23][24] Future Outlook - The success of Muyuan's IPO will provide temporary relief, but long-term stability hinges on a recovery in pig prices and stabilization of feed costs [24][30] - Investors are betting on the company's ability to navigate through the current cycle, with the potential for significant returns if it can maintain cash flow and capitalize on market recovery [25][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]