Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over excess production capacity [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1] - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High inventory levels and the release of production capacity by leading enterprises are contributing to the oversupply in the pig industry, compounded by weak consumer demand [2][3] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach a high of 40.8 million by November 2024, indicating sustained supply levels [2] Industry Adjustments - Major pig farming companies are actively reducing production capacity, with a consensus on the need for quality improvement and capacity reduction [5][6] - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows and reduce average slaughter weights [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may stabilize by November as excess capacity is gradually absorbed, with potential for price recovery [5][6] - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, balancing large enterprises, specialized farms, and medium-sized family farms to better withstand cyclical fluctuations [9]

南方财经记者张梦琦 广州报道 金秋九月本应是畜牧业的传统旺季，但生猪市场的表现却不尽如人意。 据猪好多网监测数据，9月26日全国外三元生猪均价为12.71元/公斤，较昨日下跌0.04元/公斤。以斤为单位测算，目前"5元猪价 区"已覆盖全国半数区域。另据农业农村部监测，9月第3周，全国生猪平均价格13.85元/公斤；全国猪肉平均价格24.51元/公斤， 比前一周下跌0.8%。 南华期货分析师戴鸿绪向南方财经记者表示，近期国家已采取一系列调控产能的措施，"政策底"已经显现。由于生猪存栏量仍 处高位，企业出栏压力较大，"市场底"尚未真正形成。 不过，市场也在释放一些积极信号。部分业内人士认为，中秋、国庆双节及开学季可能带动消费回暖，叠加多次猪肉收储，猪 价或阶段性止跌。长期来看，产能调减效果或在2026年下半年显现，届时猪价有望呈上涨趋势。 当前我国生猪产业正处于第6轮"猪周期"，申万宏源认为，本轮生猪养殖行业内生性扩产周期已近结束，仔猪养殖亏损或加快产 能淘汰。在政策与亏损减产的推动下，行业产能有望进入加速去化的阶段。 2023年7月以来全国仔猪、生猪和猪肉价格曲线，农业农村部官网截图 猪价进入成本价区间 广东广 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the pig farming industry, indicating a shift towards stable and high-quality development, with a recommendation to focus on leading pig farming companies that demonstrate good performance and dividend payouts [6][5]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is entering a new phase characterized by improved profitability and stability, driven by effective cost management and policy support for capacity reduction. The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the strength of current policies aimed at reducing production capacity [6][5]. - In the first half of 2025, the pig farming sector saw a significant increase in supply, with a slight decline in pig prices year-on-year. However, listed companies in the sector reported substantial revenue growth and profit increases, primarily due to volume-driven strategies [6][21]. - The report highlights that the current profitability cycle in the pig farming industry is expected to be prolonged, with conservative market expectations and limited capacity expansion. The anticipated supply pressure may lead to continued losses for some farming operations [6][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Pig Farming Industry in H1 2025 - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.21%. The supply of pigs increased due to higher production efficiency and a growing number of breeding sows [10][11]. - The slaughter volume from designated slaughterhouses increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 21.4% in Q2 2025, indicating stable demand despite price fluctuations [11][12]. 2. Performance Review of Listed Pig Farming Companies - In H1 2025, the total revenue of listed pig farming companies reached 201.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, while net profit surged by 865.5% to 15.9 billion yuan [21][22]. - The leading companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs, reported substantial increases in both revenue and profit, with Muyuan achieving a 45% increase in the number of pigs slaughtered [27][26]. 3. Industry Outlook under the "Anti-Internal Competition" Policy - The report anticipates that the policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity will accelerate the pace of capacity reduction in the industry, with plans to cut 1 million breeding sows within six months [6][5]. - The industry is expected to transition towards a more stable and high-quality development phase, with improved profitability and cash flow for leading companies [6][5]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies with strong performance and reliable dividend payouts, as these firms are likely to experience a reassessment of their value in the market [6][5]. - The report indicates that the current cycle of profitability in the pig farming industry is expected to last longer than anticipated, with limited capacity expansion and ongoing supply pressures [6][5].

（原标题：猪价创年内新低、养殖利润跌破成本线 政策推动产能去化 畜牧养殖或迎布局窗口？） 生猪期、现、股全面下挫。 根据猪好多网，9月23日，生猪均价12.83元/公斤，仔猪价格24.08元/公斤，双双创下年内新低。 二级市场方面，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）早盘下跌1.66%，成交超4100万元，已超昨日全天水平。Wind 数据显示，近5个交易日，资金连续净流入该ETF累计超8100万元，呈逆势布局趋势。 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪2511合约12795元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。 华鑫期货分析师认为，今年7月中旬，生猪期货价格一度出现快速反弹，主因是市场对生猪养殖行业的 压缩产能有所预期，相关政策和措施也陆续拟出台，但实际效果一般。 对于生猪行业近期表现，财通证券认为，近期集团场标猪供应量增加明显，供大于求。当前补栏仔猪对 应年后出栏，且环保政策监管趋严，仔猪补栏情绪持续回落。 随着猪价回落，生猪养殖利润全面跌破成本线。根据博亚和讯数据，9月19日当周，外购仔猪养殖利润 为-199.31元/头，盈利周环比下滑37.38元/头；自繁自养养殖利润为-24.44元/头，盈利周环比下 ...

Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from traditional small-scale operations to large, technologically advanced farms driven by capital investment and efficiency [3][5][42] - The industry is characterized by a "de-scaling" trend, where small farmers are being pushed out due to market pressures, high costs, and technological advancements [5][43] Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest consumer of pork, slaughtering approximately 700 million pigs annually, which accounts for over half of global pig farming [1] - Despite being a major producer, China remains a net importer of pork, requiring millions of tons from abroad each year [1] - The pig price index is a crucial economic indicator, reflecting the supply chain's impact on the broader economy and public welfare [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "pig cycle" is a fundamental aspect of the industry, where price fluctuations lead to cycles of overproduction and underproduction, typically lasting 3-4 years [6][11] - The cycle is influenced by the time lag in pig production, which takes 10-18 months from breeding to market [6][8] - Market participants often react to price signals too late, leading to a boom-and-bust cycle that disproportionately affects small farmers [9][14] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak has severely impacted China's pig population, reducing it by nearly 30% within a year of its introduction in August 2018 [20] - The disease's high mortality rate and complex transmission methods pose significant challenges for small farmers, who lack the resources to implement stringent biosecurity measures [22][28] - Rising operational costs, particularly feed, which constitutes about 60% of total costs, further strain small-scale operations [28][30] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Large-scale farms leverage advanced technologies in breeding, feeding, and environmental control, giving them a competitive edge over traditional methods [32][36] - Innovations such as genetic selection and smart feeding systems enhance productivity and reduce waste, making large farms more efficient [32][39] - The integration of technology from companies like Huawei into pig farming operations exemplifies the shift towards industrialized meat production [36][39] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of China's pig farming industry is expected to be dominated by a few large players, leading to a high concentration of market share among companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [43] - Smaller farmers may need to adapt by partnering with larger firms to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and disease outbreaks [44]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing over 600 million yuan in net inflows for five consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest in this area [1]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing capacity regulation measures, with a focus on reducing the number of breeding sows by 1 million over the next six months, which is expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [1]. - The current "anti-involution" policy and the dual impact of losses and production cuts are likely to push the industry into a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in leading pig farming companies [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The livestock sector may have entered a configuration phase, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [2]. - For investors without stock accounts, alternative investment options include the Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Link A (012724) and Link C (012725) [2].

Market Overview - On September 19, A-shares saw a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.16% [1] - The CSI A50 index increased by 0.33%, outperforming other indices [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,238 billion RMB, a significant decrease of over 811.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - The CSI A50 index has risen by 12.04% year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 13.97% [2] - The ChiNext Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 44.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 25.51% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.37% and has a year-to-date increase of 40.87% [2] Sector Performance - The coal sector (1.97%), non-ferrous metals (1.19%), and building materials (1.05%) were the top-performing sectors [4] - Conversely, the automotive sector (-1.94%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computer sector (-1.26%) experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Flow - The ETF market continued to see a net inflow, totaling 17.694 billion RMB this week [5] - Cross-border ETFs and stock ETFs were the main contributors to inflows, with net inflows of 17.655 billion RMB and 7.588 billion RMB, respectively [5] - Stock (broad-based) ETFs saw a significant net outflow of 16.252 billion RMB, indicating a declining preference for broad-based ETF investments [6] Investment Trends - The livestock ETF (159867) saw a net subscription of 10.5 million units, marking nine consecutive days of net inflow [11] - The chemical ETF (159870) recorded a net subscription of 1.75 billion units, driven by the strengthening of solid-state battery concepts [12] - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing increased interest, particularly in gold stocks, as gold prices have recently surpassed 3,660 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current pig industry is facing a dilemma of high production capacity and low prices, prompting discussions on capacity regulation and market outlook at a recent industry seminar [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The pig industry is caught in a "production-loss" cycle, with high sow productivity and improved farming efficiency leading to oversupply and sustained pressure on prices [3]. - Despite efforts to reduce market supply through measures like lowering slaughter weights, the overall goal of capacity reduction has not been achieved due to high breeding sow inventory and quick recovery of production by large enterprises after cutbacks [3]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Many leading companies plan to maintain current production levels and utilize hedging strategies to manage market risks and lock in profits, indicating a shift towards using financial derivatives for risk management [3][4]. - Companies like Guangxi Shennong emphasize a balanced approach to hedging, focusing on risk prevention while maintaining competitive advantage, viewing hedging as a long-term strategic tool rather than mere speculation [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry representatives predict that the domestic pig market will exhibit new characteristics, including improved disease prevention capabilities post-African swine fever, a likely long-term saturation of production capacity, and a potential reduction in the amplitude of price fluctuations [5]. - The cyclical nature of the pig market is expected to persist, but future cycles may be shorter compared to the historical average of four years, with factors like hoarding and secondary fattening potentially causing price volatility [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting significant profit growth across various sub-sectors [2][11]. Core Insights - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a substantial year-on-year profit increase of 208% in the first half of 2025, with total net profit reaching 207.8 billion yuan [2][11]. - The sub-sectors with the highest profit growth included seed industry (+1212%), pig farming (+663%), and agricultural product processing (+60%) [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of profitability in pig farming, driven by improved cost efficiency and increased production volume, despite a slight decline in pig prices [2][17]. - The poultry sector, particularly white feathered chicken, is experiencing pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while yellow feathered chicken prices have significantly dropped [2][17]. - The pet food industry is noted for its continued growth, with domestic brands gaining market share and profitability, despite challenges in export due to increased tariffs [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for H1 2025 was 207.8 billion yuan, marking a 208% increase year-on-year [11]. - The second quarter of 2025 also showed a profit increase of 26% compared to the previous year, with notable growth in agricultural product processing and pig farming [15]. 2. Sub-sector Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 201.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17.9% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 159.24 billion yuan, up 866% [2][17]. - Despite a slight decline in pig prices, the sector benefited from increased production and reduced costs, leading to significant profit improvements [2][17]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white feathered chicken sector is stabilizing, with a slight recovery in profitability due to cost improvements, while the yellow feathered chicken sector faces significant price declines [2][17]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector saw a revenue increase of 21.4% in H1 2025, driven by domestic brand growth and improved profitability [2][3]. 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector experienced a revenue increase of 26.44% in H1 2025, with net profit rising by 68.35% [4]. 2.5 Feed - The feed sector reported a revenue increase of 13.3% in H1 2025, with net profit up 29.5% [4]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry faced challenges with a revenue decline of 9.7% in H1 2025, attributed to falling grain prices [4]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of stable, high-quality development, with potential for significant profit stability and valuation reassessment for leading companies [3][5]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, supported by increasing pet ownership and spending [3][5].

2014年，牧原股份在深交所上市，借助资本力量加速扩张，并实现了快速发展。2024年，该公司生猪出栏量突破7000万头，较2014 年增长37倍；营业收入从26.05亿元增长至1379.47亿元，年复合增长率达到42%，市占率达到9.32%，稳居全球生猪养殖企业首位。 然而，任何企业在发展过程中都不是一帆风顺的。生猪养殖是周期性最明显的行业之一，基本每3至4年就会经历一次"猪周期"的轮 回，而牧原股份也随之出现了经营业绩的波动。 每一轮"猪周期"的转换，都是围绕价格和供应量进行波动：猪肉价格上涨——母猪存栏量增加——生猪供应增加——猪肉价格下跌 ——大量淘汰母猪——生猪供应减少——猪肉价格上涨。 2025 年上半年，一份亮眼的业绩报告让牧原股份再度成为农牧行业焦点，营收同比增三成，归母净利润同比增长11.7倍。2023年， 该公司刚刚经历了自上市以来的首次亏损，净亏损额达到42.63亿元。 从"巨亏阴霾"到"盈利暴增"，牧原股份短短两年间就完成了戏剧性转身，让外界非常好奇。在激烈的市场竞争和"猪周期"影响下， 牧原股份究竟靠什么实现了"穿越周期"的逆势突围之路？ "猪周期"下的成长与阵痛 牧原股份创立于200 ...