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对美直接出口上行——实体经济图谱 2025年第19期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-24 10:23
Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand housing prices rise but sales decline [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased; the operating rate of semi-steel tires remains stable [1] - The tourism market shows marginal improvement, with hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room increasing [1] Group 2: External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports showing year-on-year growth [2][3] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on European goods, which may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector [4] Group 3: Production - Weak terminal construction demand due to increased rainfall in southern regions, leading to a decline in steel prices and production [5] - Prices for PTA, polyester chips, and POY have continued to rise due to maintenance and rising oil prices, although inventory levels have slightly increased [6] Group 4: Prices - Gold prices have rebounded, while copper and crude oil prices are fluctuating within a range; domestic chemical products continue to rise, and steel prices have decreased [7] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies have supported gold prices, despite OPEC+ production increases [8] Group 5: Future Focus - Attention is directed towards corporate profit data and PMI data for further insights into economic conditions [9]
贸易利好提振生产——实体经济图谱 2025年第18期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-17 12:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in commodity prices, domestic demand, external demand, production, and pricing, highlighting the fluctuations in gold, copper, and oil prices, as well as the recovery in housing sales and the impact of tariff adjustments on exports [1][2][4][6]. Domestic Demand - New housing sales are improving, with a narrowing decline in growth rates, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are decreasing. The average selling price of home appliances is rising [2]. - Service consumption has seen a marginal improvement year-on-year, despite a post-holiday decline in demand. Movie box office revenues have decreased, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][11]. - The retail of passenger cars is declining, while wholesale sales are increasing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [2]. External Demand - The recent unexpected reduction in China-US tariffs has led to a rebound in direct exports to the US. The current effective tariff rate is 10%, with 24% of tariffs suspended, which may support continued export activities [2][3][12]. Production - Progress in trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment, particularly in the steel sector, where some steel mills have raised factory prices, leading to a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and an increase in steel prices [4][5]. - In the chemical sector, prices of PTA, polyester chips, and POY have significantly rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and maintenance of production facilities [5]. Pricing - Gold prices have retreated due to the reduction in tariffs and improved global risk appetite, with expectations of short-term fluctuations. Long-term support for gold prices remains due to unsustainable US debt and the diminishing dollar system [6]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to improved economic expectations and future demand from European revitalization and post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine [6]. - Oil prices are recovering from previous lows but may face long-term pressure from global energy transitions and potential increases in US oil supply [6].
义乌出口价格明显上升——实体经济图谱 2025年第17期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-10 11:42
核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测: 原油上升,金、铜震荡上行。 内需: 房、车销售回升,假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升,二手房降,家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄,但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中,乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升,但受成本抬升,需求预期悲观等因素影响,半钢胎开工率超季节性回落;家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨,假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%,出游总花费同比增长8.0%,纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次,同比增长5.2%。 不过,电影市场表现惨淡,五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元,同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需: 对美出口量继续下行,但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示,美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑,指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升,反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税,中美经贸谈判将于周末开始,关注会后通报结果。 生产: 节后库存阶段性累积,开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...
室外出游热度高——实体经济图谱 2025年第15期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-04-26 10:36
外需: 4月出口或回落,关税不确定性对出口仍有支撑。 ①关税对外需影响初步显现,4月韩国前20天出口增速回落,我国集装箱吞吐量等出口数量指标有所下行。但考虑到关税不确定性仍在,部分转口贸易或仍带来抢 出口需求,将对外需有一定支撑。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测: 金、铜震荡上升,原油区间震荡。 内需: 房销售走弱、车持平上月,室外出游热度较高。 ①房销售走弱、车持平上月,家电销售均价同比增速跌多涨少。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩,二手房价升量减。商品消费中,乘用车零售增速持平上月,批发有所 回升,受市场需求疲软影响,轮胎企业调整生产计划,导致半钢胎开工回落;本周家电价格多有上行。 ② 本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流上升,一线城市至海口的航班均价转为上行。不过,电影市场表现仍旧惨淡,持续位于历年同期低位。五一假期临近, 建议关注假期消费情况。 生产: 产能调控需加强,传统基建有望加速恢复。 ①由于4月以来多地错峰生产执行力度减弱,竞争加剧,本周水泥价格续降,企业库容比续升,终端需求暂弱,本周水泥发运率继续回落。 ②本周石油沥青开工率继续上行,同比回正,样本建筑工地资金到位率续升,同时水泥基建直供量超过去年 ...
生产强于需求——实体经济图谱 2025年第13期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-04-12 11:28
核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测: 金、油震荡上升,铜区间震荡。 内需: 房、车销售走弱,节后消费热度回落。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落,家电价格续升。4月新房销量增速由升转降,二手房量跌价升。商品消费中,乘用车零售增速有所回落,家电价格同比增速 续升。 ②假期日均票房收入仅1.26亿元,约为去年的一半,不过假期日人均出游花费略有增长。节后消费热度有所下降,上海迪士尼客流、商圈人流、酒店入住 率和地铁客运量均有所下行,与去年同期相比,仅商圈人流和地铁客运量较高。 外需: 中美关税加征幅度再度攀升。 ①本周特朗普暂停对他国加征对等关税,仅加征10%的基础关税, 而自其上任以来,已经对我国累计加征超100%的关税。中国也进行反制,对美加征关 税税率同样超过100%。 ②4月韩国前10日出口增速回升,CCFI运价增速回升,同时离港船只载重增速也有改善,或因关税政策朝令夕改,部分转口贸易仍带来抢出口需求。 生产: 钢铁、水泥开工仍强,库存多有上行。 ①受关税冲击影响,本周钢铁价格降幅扩大,其中跟出口有关的板材产量出现下降,仍有利润空间的螺纹产量仍在回升。但本周钢厂盈利率转降,厂库转 升,高炉开工率上行至相对高位,行业去 ...
出口暂强,消费暂弱——1-2月经济数据前瞻
一瑜中的· 2025-03-04 14:22
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights two significant economic characteristics continuing from last year: strong exports but weak consumption, and notable volume growth but weak pricing. Attention should be paid to changes in these characteristics as trade tensions escalate and more consumption-boosting measures are expected post the March Two Sessions [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Consumption - Exports are expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4%-5% in January-February in USD terms. Factors supporting this include companies "rushing to export" and high-frequency data indicating strong performance [4][12]. - Consumption is anticipated to be weak, with retail sales growth expected around 3.0%, down from 3.7% in December. This is influenced by the post-Spring Festival consumption dip and a decline in automobile sales growth [5][17]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Growth - CPI is projected to decline to around -0.8% year-on-year in February, with PPI also expected to remain negative. This is attributed to weak food prices and a post-holiday drop in core CPI [6][9]. - GDP growth for the first quarter is estimated to be between 5.2%-5.3%, with strong performance expected in finance, industry, and information sectors [6][11]. Group 3: Investment and Financial Data - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 4.5% for January-February, driven by early-year investment activity and a rebound in construction projects [6][15]. - Financial data indicates accelerated government bond issuance, with new social financing expected to reach 3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year [7][18].