【环球网财经综合报道】农业农村部最新调度显示，当前我国生猪产能阶段性偏高，为防范生产大起大 落、价格大涨大跌风险，将实施生猪产能综合调控，引导调减约100万头能繁母猪。 开源证券近日发布研报认为，受高温散户大猪集中出栏、集团降重、南方雨季非瘟及恐慌情绪等因素驱 动，短期猪价承压；展望后市，8月下旬气温转凉，需求边际改善，而供给则因前期生猪超卖进一步偏 紧，猪价中枢上行幅度或更高。 另据国家统计局数据，2025年7月我国CPI同比持平，但其中猪肉价格同比-9.5%，影响CPI下降0.13个百 分点。 开源证券认为，2025年第三季度或是政策端推动猪价上行及行业远期能繁调减的核心时段，预计相关配 套政策会持续落地强化，生猪板块当前处相对低位配置价值显现。 ...

Core Insights - The current trend shows a slight decline in live pig spot prices, with the national average price at 13.94 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week, reflecting a 0.57% week-on-week decrease and a 31.13% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to weak terminal consumption and an oversupply situation, although policy measures for capacity control may limit further price drops [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The breeding sow inventory reached 40.43 million heads as of June 2025, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a potentially high supply of live pigs in the future [1] - The average pigs per sow (PSY) has increased from 24 to over 26, with some leading enterprises nearing 29, suggesting improved production efficiency [1] - The mid-term outlook indicates that the supply of live pigs will remain ample, with an expected increase in slaughter volume in the second half of the year, unless there is a significant rise in pork consumption [1] Policy Measures - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs proposed several measures for the development of the pig industry, focusing on strict implementation of capacity control, reasonable culling of breeding sows, and limiting new production capacity [1] - Long-term improvements in market supply-demand relationships and price stabilization are anticipated if the breeding sow inventory is reduced to 39.5 million heads [1]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March [3] Agricultural Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, and measures will be taken to adjust the breeding of approximately 1 million sows to prevent price volatility [3] Small and Medium Enterprises - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July remained stable at 89.0, with significant increases in sectors such as construction, transportation, real estate, and information technology [3] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate has risen to 20.11%, significantly higher than the 2.44% at the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial increase in trade barriers [5] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing recent tariff adjustments as a negative influence on global trade prospects [5] International Relations - European leaders emphasized that any diplomatic solution regarding the Ukraine crisis must protect the significant security interests of Europe and Ukraine [5] - Discussions are ongoing between Qatar and the U.S. regarding a comprehensive ceasefire agreement for the Gaza conflict, expected to be submitted for discussion soon [5]

Core Insights - China's pork production and consumption account for approximately 60% of the total meat market, indicating the significance of the pork industry in the country's agricultural sector [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced a comprehensive adjustment of pig production capacity, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million to prevent extreme fluctuations in production and prices [1] Production and Inventory - As of the end of June, the national pig inventory stood at 424 million heads, reflecting a 2.2% increase [1] - The breeding sow inventory reached 40.43 million heads, which is 103.7% of the normal retention level, nearing the upper limit of reasonable production capacity [1] - The inventory of pigs over five months old and the number of newborn piglets in the first half of the year are at historical highs, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter in the second half of the year and after the Spring Festival next year [1] Market Outlook - Expert Zhu Zengyong from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs warns that without timely adjustments, there could be a risk of losses in pig farming, especially after the Spring Festival next year, due to potential oversupply during peak consumption seasons [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term pig prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm. Currently, the slaughter rhythm shows signs of slowing down, but the slaughter volume remains high, suppressing pig prices. Attention should be paid to whether this week's slaughter rhythm conforms to the general end - of - month and beginning - of - month slaughter situation. [2] - The capacity policy has a more obvious actual supporting effect on forward contracts due to the long breeding cycle. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the main contract position is 53,049 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, a decrease of 205 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 25,908 lots, an increase of 649 lots. The main contract of live pigs closed down 0.49% on Wednesday. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Guangdong Yunfu remained unchanged at 13,800 yuan/ton and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Jilin Siping decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton. The main basis of live pigs is - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, an increase of 40,000 heads. The CPI year - on - year is 0.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,409.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 940.02, an increase of 5.27. The monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, an increase of 981,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 71.39 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.73 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 62.16 yuan/head, a decrease of 28.73 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, an increase of 1390,000 heads. The monthly catering revenue in the total retail sales of social consumer goods is 470.76 billion yuan, an increase of 12.94 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - On July 30, 2025, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 266,710 heads, a decrease of 2.98% from the previous day. Generally, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end slows down at the end and beginning of the month. On July 30, the breeding end showed signs of reducing the volume, but the slaughter volume was still high. [2] 3.6 Policy Information - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium, pointing out that it is necessary to strictly implement capacity regulation measures, reasonably cull breeding sows, appropriately reduce the inventory of breeding sows, reduce secondary fattening, control the slaughter weight of fat pigs, and strictly control new production capacity. [2] 3.7 Demand Side - The price of white - striped pigs has decreased, and part of the demand has recovered. The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased slightly, but high temperatures still suppress people's willingness to buy pork. [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.93 percentage points during the week of July 21-25, 2025, with the index closing at 2,855.04, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.62% [1][15] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.84% week-on-week and down 26.15% year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 3.62%, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [1][15] - The breeding sector showed the best performance with a 5.27% increase, followed by planting, fishery, feed, agricultural product processing, and animal health sectors [17] 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1 Pig Farming - The profit from self-breeding pigs is 62.16 yuan/head, down 28.73 yuan/head week-on-week, while the profit from purchased piglets is -71.39 yuan/head, down 52.73 yuan/head [2] 2.2 Poultry - Chicken chick prices have rebounded, with an average price of 1.93 yuan/chick, up 40.88% week-on-week, and white feather chicken prices at 6.70 yuan/kg, up 4.69% [3] 2.3 Agricultural Products - Wheat and rice prices have increased, with wheat at 2,444.56 yuan/ton (up 0.20%) and rice at 2,912.00 yuan/ton (up 0.69%), while soybean meal prices have decreased to 2,964.00 yuan/ton (down 0.07%) [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For poultry, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [4] - In the feed sector, it highlights Haida Group and Hefeng Stock as key players benefiting from the recovery in livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, it suggests monitoring Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a significant rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 3.62% last week, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture has convened major pig farming companies to discuss capacity regulation, which has positively impacted the breeding sector [5][14] - The pig market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply pressures and weak demand, with the average price of pigs at 14.33 CNY/kg as of July 27, showing a slight decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg from the previous week [6][17] - The white feather chicken market has seen a price rebound, with chick prices rising to 2.30 CNY/chick, an increase of 0.8 CNY/chick from the previous week [26] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.67% and 1.69% respectively [13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting with leading pig companies has sparked market interest in pig production capacity regulation [14] 2. Breeding Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, down 0.35 kg from the previous week, indicating a supply surplus [17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 62 CNY per head, down 29 CNY from the previous week, while purchased piglets are facing a loss of 71 CNY per head [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the need for quality development in the pig industry, including reducing the number of breeding sows and controlling slaughter weights [20] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - The average price of meat chickens has increased by 5.31% to 3.37 CNY/kg, driven by reduced supply and improved demand conditions [26] - The update of grandparent stock has decreased significantly, with a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025 [26] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6075 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have rebounded to 3943 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.2% increase [29] - Cotton prices have increased by 1.43% to 15585 CNY/ton, and corn prices have risen slightly to 2379 CNY/ton [29]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [74]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights a focus on high-quality development in the pig farming industry, with a call for better market guidance and policy support [3][22]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. - The beef and dairy sectors are seeing price stability, with expectations for a new cycle in beef prices as supply constraints continue [5][39][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases due to external uncertainties [6][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2855.04 points, with a week-on-week increase of 3.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.48 kg, with a slight increase in slaughter rates due to high temperatures [3][22]. - The average price of pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.84% [21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 yuan per pig, with a focus on low-cost operations [3][23]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 6.70 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [29]. - The overall poultry sector is stabilizing, with expectations for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle was 26.49 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week [5][40]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in prices as supply constraints continue [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2,332.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.12% [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases [6][45]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.35 yuan/kg [61]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing [61][66].

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in the pig market shows a strong futures market contrasted with a weak spot market, driven by macro-level supply adjustments and policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of mid-July, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month [1]. - The futures market has shown strength, with the main contract reaching 15,150 yuan per ton on July 23, driven by policy expectations and market sentiment [2][3]. - The current supply pressure in the spot market is attributed to the ongoing recovery of pig farming profitability, which has been stable for 14 consecutive months since May 2024 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, exceeding the normal holding capacity of 39 million heads [2]. - The pig farming industry is currently in a phase of supply increment, with positive month-on-month increases in the number of newborn piglets from January to May [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The recent meeting on July 23 emphasized strict implementation of capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and control of pig weights at slaughter [4]. - Analysts believe that these capacity control measures will help stabilize the industry and prevent blind expansion, ensuring sustainable long-term profitability [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, the early release of supply pressure is expected to help stabilize pork prices and avoid significant price drops [4]. - The long-term strategy aims to maintain production capacity within a reasonable range, ensuring a stable supply of pork while allowing farming enterprises to achieve normal profits [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Feed and Livestock Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Ge Yan [3] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - During the speculation period in the US soybean producing areas, there have been frequent positive developments on the trade front, and the support level of 10 cents for US soybeans is relatively strong. However, due to concerns about domestic demand, the prices of double rapeseed meal have declined from their highs. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing capacity control measures, such as reasonable culling of sows, reduction of secondary fattening, and control of fat pig slaughter weight, and promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal. - For soybean meal, in the short - term, it is supported by the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, and short - term long positions can be considered; in the long - term, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held. - For rapeseed meal, in the short - term, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held; in the long - term, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2509), rapeseed meal (RM509), corn (C2509), live pigs (LH2509), and eggs (JD2508) were 3025, 2682, 2318, 14365, and 3636 respectively, with weekly increases of 48, 29, 25, 355, and 45, and weekly growth rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.01 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 43% protein soybean meal, rapeseed meal, national standard second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture, commercial pigs in Henan, and eggs in the main producing areas were 2850, 2570, 2320, 1413, and 334 respectively, with weekly changes of 40, 20, 0, - 39, and 55, and weekly growth rates of 0.01, 0.01, 0, - 0.03, and 0.20 respectively [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: August is a critical month for the autumn soybean harvest. There will be a brief heatwave in the US Midwest this week, but showers are expected to relieve the pressure on soybean crop growth. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA downgraded the good - to - excellent rating of US soybean growth. As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week's 70% and the market expectation of 71%, but the same as the 68% in the same period of 2024. - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated, but it is still relatively slow overall. - **Argentina**: In June, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 4,055,149 tons, and its soybean oil production was 788,210 tons [10]. - **Supply** - **Import**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans; from January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. - **Import Price**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [10][17]. - **Demand** - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 18, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 410,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 510,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. This week, the oil mills' operating rate remained high, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons. - **Trading Volume**: On July 23, the total trading volume of soybean meal was 110,300 tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons from the previous day, including 44,300 tons of spot trading [10]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, the national oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 310,400 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 262,200 tons. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 24, the import soybean port inventory was 6.6793 million tons, an increase of 103,100 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year low level. As of July 19, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 908,300 tons, an increase of 65,400 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium level [10][25]. 3. Supply - Side Analysis - **Import**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [17]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 24, the soybean crushing profit was 91.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic oil mills' weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.1476 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 18, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 55%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous week [23]. 4. Demand - Side Analysis As of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 113,700 tons, a decrease of 122,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium - low level [29]. 5. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: For soybean meal, due to the support from the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, short - term long positions can be considered; for rapeseed meal, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held. - **Long - Term**: For soybean meal, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held; for rapeseed meal, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. 6. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [42].