消息面上，生猪产能调控超预期，9月16日生猪产能调控企业座谈会召开。此前包括牧原股份、新希 望、大北农等大型猪企，均在今年8月底至9月初的投资者交流活动中强调会响应国家的母猪产能调控政 策。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、温 氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、圣农发展 (002299)、生物股份(600201)、天康生物(002100)、唐人神(002567)，前十大权重股合计占比65.57%。 国金证券指出，政策端持续发力，9月16日生猪养殖行业仍有座谈会推动产能去化落地，年前政策端主 动去产能或持续推进，利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间， 近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏 损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利 润，且非洲猪瘟之后行业的快速扩张中，仍有大量企业是低质量扩充产能，行业成本方差依旧巨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has initiated a capacity regulation meeting for the pig industry, emphasizing a reduction in production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year among major pig farming enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Regulation - The meeting highlighted a focus on "controlling breeding and nurturing" and detailed the tasks for reducing breeding capacity among major pig farming enterprises [1]. - A series of financial measures will accompany the capacity regulation to support the industry [1]. - The meeting called for leading enterprises to take the initiative in controlling production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and lowering the volume of pigs for market [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since late July, pig prices have been on a downward trend, with the futures index hitting a yearly low in late September [1]. - The recovery of domestic pig production capacity post-African swine fever has been primarily driven by leading enterprises, with 23 listed pig companies selling 108 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.86% [1]. - The proportion of these companies' sales to the national total rose to 29.5%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The current inventory of breeding sows remains stable, with a slight decrease of 0.02% month-on-month but an increase of 0.02% year-on-year, indicating a slow process of capacity reduction [2]. - The industry is experiencing pressure from supply, with larger weights of pigs leading to increased market supply and a generally pessimistic market sentiment [3]. - Demand is supported by seasonal factors, such as cooler weather in the north and pre-holiday stocking, but overall demand remains limited [3].

新华财经北京9月19日电（郭洲洋）近期，农业农村部等有关部门多次召开生猪产能调控座谈会，要求 严格落实产能调控举措，但近端供应压力依然较大，生猪期价持续下跌，主力合约今日早盘一度跌至 12770元／吨，刷新2021年以来的新低，最终收跌0.47%，报12825元／吨。 在供应压力持续增加的情况下，需求端也表现较弱。当前正值传统的需求旺季，但由于近期生猪现货持 续下行，负反馈逐渐形成，一方面是现货市场出现集中抛售迹象，恐慌情绪进一步加剧抛售压力；另一 方面是下游采购积极性一般，观望氛围浓厚，进一步削弱了旺季预期。 供给方面，据农业农村部数据显示，2025年7月末全国能繁母猪存栏量4042万头，相当于正常保有量的 103.6%。三季度出栏量逐月增加，并且预计后续出栏量仍然相对较大。 据中粮期货分析，9月出栏计划较8月进一步调增，并且上旬集团企业完成计划偏慢，中下旬头部企业仍 有出栏压力。而且当前猪价在跌，散户难以等到理想时间再卖，9月出猪有所加速，在压力的释放中短 期的市场形成了一定的恐慌情绪。 在供应压力持续冲击下，猪价破位下跌，生猪现货价格跌破13元／公斤。企业开始计划减产，政策调控 也不断加码。 正信期货表 ...

事 农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 生猪养殖持续"反内卷" 农林牧渔行业事件点评 2025 年 9 月 18 日 分析师：魏红梅（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340513040002） 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 件 点 评 事件： 9 月 16 日，农业农村部联合国家发展改革委，召集 25 家生猪养殖龙头企业集聚一堂，召开生猪产能 调控企业座谈会。 点评： 东莞证券研究报告评级体系： | | | 公司投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 买入 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现强于市场指数 15%以上 | | 增持 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现强于市场指数 5%-15%之间 | | 持有 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现介于市场指数±5%之间 | | 减持 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现弱于市场指数 5%以上 | | 无评级 | | 因无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，导 | | | | 致无法给出明确的投资评级；股票不在常规研究覆盖范围之内 | | | | 行业投资评级 | ...

【生猪产能调控超预期！发改委明确#生猪头部企业要带头减产#】上海证券报记者从多个信源获悉，农 业农村部畜牧兽医局16日会同国家发展和改革委员会召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，牧原股份、温氏股 份、双胞胎等多家龙头生猪养殖企业参会，就产能调控的落实情况进行分析和讨论。 据悉，此次调控产能还配套了一系列的财政金融措施，如严控关于生猪产能扩张的信贷投放、减少刺激 生猪产能增长的各类补贴等。 一家参会企业负责人透露，会上明确要求头部企业带头控制产能，包括调减能繁母猪、降低出栏量、出 栏体重控制在120公斤左右等。"头部企业也下达了任务，2026年能繁母猪量要同比减少。"上述负责人 介绍。 "此前调控重心主要集中在控制出栏均重、不得增加产能，这次是国家发展和改革委员会首次明确调减 能繁母猪存栏量，调控措施超过市场预期。"行业某资深人士告诉记者，预计随着各类措施落地，行业 调降产能可取得一定成效。 行业数据监测显示，三季度以来，猪价持续走低。9月18日，国内生猪外三元价格跌至12.93元/公斤， 创近一年新低，这一价格已经低于部分上市猪企的现金养殖成本。 此前农业农村部等有关部门已多次召开生猪产能调控座谈会，要求严格落实产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock ETF (159865) has seen a significant inflow of 162 million shares, indicating strong market interest in livestock assets [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has outlined specific measures for pig production capacity regulation, emphasizing its importance in the broader price control system aimed at boosting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Group 1: Policy and Regulation - A meeting was held on September 16, 2025, to discuss the implementation of production capacity regulation for pig farming, with clear deadlines and penalties for non-compliance [1] - The meeting highlighted that pig production capacity regulation is a crucial part of the pig price control system, which is integral to the overall price control framework [1] - The primary goal of these regulations is to enhance the CPI, with pork being a significant contributor to CPI fluctuations [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The policy focus for the year has been on "controlling production and nurturing growth," with the recent meeting further detailing the "controlling breeding" tasks assigned to various farming entities [1] - Major companies, specifically the top 25 groups, are required to reduce production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year, while other farming entities will be managed through coordinated departmental efforts [1] - Non-compliance with these production targets will result in penalties such as the suspension of subsidies and credit [1] - Overall, the meeting signifies a potential acceleration in the reduction of industry production capacity, suggesting that the livestock sector may be entering a favorable investment phase [1]

来源：喜娜AI 1、A股两大券商股被40亿大资金压盘 今天（9月17日），虽然创业板指数、科创50指数再创新高，但盘中出现了一大奇观：两大券商股 被大资金压盘。今天下午开盘后，中信证券、国泰海通开始明显回落，均从红盘回落到下跌约1%。到 收盘时，中信证券的卖一有31亿元的资金压盘，国泰海通有7.6亿元的资金压盘，两只个股合计有38.6亿 元的资金压盘。从本轮行情来看，券商股还没有走出主升浪，扮演的是指数节奏调节器的角色。权重蓝 筹方向本轮表现落后，从券商股的走势可见一丝端倪。（每经） 2、国际投行前瞻美联储降息路径 在9月17日FOMC会议前，多家国际投行更新了对美联储政策的预测：1.瑞银：预计美联储将自9月 起连续四次降息，总幅度100个基点，理由是通胀接近目标且劳动力市场风险加大。2.高盛：预计今年9 月、10月、12月连续三次降息25个基点，明年再降两次，将利率降至3%–3.25%；若劳动力市场恶化加 速，下次会议不排除降息50个基点。高盛强调，就业市场疲软已成为政策重心，通胀不再是阻碍降息的 主因。3.摩根士丹利：预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。 4.巴克莱： ...

生猪产能调控企业座谈会9月16日在北京召开，一参会企业总裁透露，会上谈起了猪企控制能繁母猪产 能的任务。据悉，有牧原股份、温氏股份等多家企业参会，会上还提到了落实生猪出栏称重等内容。 此次座谈会由农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发改委价格司联合组织，共有25家龙头企业参与，除牧 原、温氏、新希望等头部企业外，还包括多家具有区域代表性的规模化猪场。会议明确提出，各企业需 在2026年1月底前将能繁母猪存栏量调减至3950万头，同时严格控制出栏体重在120公斤以下，减少二次 育肥行为，避免过度压栏和投机性补栏。 此外，会议还强调要落实出栏称重等标准化操作，推动行业走向更加规范、透明的生产管理模式。这些 措施不仅是短期调控手段，更是推动产业长期高质量发展的重要基础。 与7月会议相比的新进展 据报道，有关部门之前已召开"生猪生产调度会"，计划将全国能繁母猪存栏量在现有基础上调减100万 头左右，即降至约3950万头。 < p> 会议背景与行业现状 今年以来，生猪市场持续面临产能过剩、价格低迷的严峻挑战。根据农业农村部监测数据，当前能繁母 猪存栏量仍高于正常保有量3.7%，仔猪价格持续探底，北方地区7公斤仔猪均价仅为260 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pig production capacity regulation meeting held on September 16 emphasizes the control of breeding sow capacity, aiming to stabilize the supply of pigs for the upcoming year [1][2][3] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting included major pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group, indicating the importance of the discussion [2] - Participants were prohibited from bringing communication devices and were instructed not to disclose meeting content, highlighting the sensitivity of the topics discussed [2] - Key topics included controlling breeding sow capacity, limiting "secondary fattening," and ensuring reduced weight at pig slaughter [2][3] Group 2: Breeding Sow Capacity Targets - The target for breeding sow inventory is to reduce it by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million, based on the "Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity Regulation (2024 Revision)" [3] - The normal breeding sow inventory is expected to stabilize around 39 million heads, with projections indicating a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 [3] Group 3: Company Responses - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope have committed to not increasing breeding sow capacity and are actively managing their inventory in response to national policies [4][5] - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory to 3.3 million heads by the end of the year and is focused on lowering the average weight of pigs for slaughter [4] - New Hope has maintained stable breeding sow inventory levels throughout 2023 and aims to enhance efficiency and compliance to stabilize the market [5]