生猪产能调控
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重大信号!能繁母猪调控不达标将暂停奖励,官方修订《生猪调出大县奖励办法》
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 04:18
(来源:今日猪价行情价格表) 近日,财政部提前下达2026年生猪(牛羊)调出大县奖励资金预算,资金总计达到33.3亿元。值得关注的是,为深入贯彻落实 党中央、国务院关于做好生猪产能调控、稳定牛羊基础产能的决策部署,财政部修订了《生猪(牛羊)调出大县奖励资金管理 办法》,其中有多条和生猪有关。 新《办法》修订哪些内容 新《办法》表示,近年来中央一号文件多次就生猪(牛羊)产业发展提出明确要求,要优化生猪产能调控机制,稳定牛羊肉基 础生产能力,促进平稳发展,构建完善上下联动、响应及时的生猪生产调控机制,在生猪层面对《办法》进行了如下修订。 一是落实各省(区、市)人民政府对本地区稳产保供负总责的总体要求,将省级统筹奖励资金的测算因素调整为"各省份过去三 年年均生猪(牛羊)出栏量",要求各省份优化生猪产能调控机制,稳定牛羊肉基础生产能力,并明确对能繁母猪存栏量处于 《生猪产能调控实施方案》(农牧发〔2024〕11号)规定的红色区域的省份,暂停安排省级统筹奖励资金。 其二是根据《中华人民共和国预算法》等有关规定,强化奖励资金作为一般性转移支付对地方财力补助的资金性质,明确奖励 资金由地方统筹安排使用。 新《办法》还表示, ...
养猪人必看,2026年猪价走势深度研报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 04:18
(来源:中国猪业) 来源:中国猪业 1.2 规模化企业产能调整进展 在政策压力和市场倒逼的双重作用下,头部养殖企业纷纷加快产能调整步伐。牧原股份的调整最为激 进,能繁母猪存栏从最高的362.1万头降至9月末的330.5万头,已提前完成32万头的调减目标,相当于减 少900万头肥猪供应。公司明确表示短期内不再新增母猪,显示出坚定的去产能决心。 目前,生猪行业仍处于周期性深度探底中,产能去化超预期但短期价格仍承压,2026年下半年有望迎来 趋势性反转。业内专家基于最新数据,预计2026年生猪均价14.9元/公斤,较2025年上涨5.1%。 核心观点:能繁母猪产能去化进程显著加速,10月末能繁母猪存栏降至3990万头,时隔17个月重回4000 万头以下,单月去化45万头,去化速度超0.8%。这一数据标志着行业供需拐点正在临近。 短期供应压 力依然巨大,12月全国生猪出栏量预计达7200-7300万头,同比增长2.5%-3.0%。规模企业为完成年度目 标集中出栏,叠加二次育肥猪源释放,供应端压力将持续至春节前。 消费端需求疲软,市场对猪肉消 费占比从2024年的58.3%降至2025年的54.2%,禽肉、牛羊肉替代效 ...
新希望11月份养殖业务实现销售收入18.12亿元 核心生产指标持续改善
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-06 03:05
转自:证券日报网 本报记者 舒娅疆 12月5日晚间,新希望六和股份有限公司(以下简称"新希望")披露11月份生猪销售情况简报。在 10月份猪价跌至阶段低位后,该公司的商品猪销售均价在11月份环比止跌。 牧原食品股份有限公司相关负责人近日在与投资者交流时表示,当前,政府对生猪产能的综合调控 与市场的自发调节正在共同作用,推动生猪市场供需情况逐步改善,能够促进猪价在长期内回归更稳 定、合理的水平。在相关政策的引导下,生猪养殖行业将迈向"稳定健康、高质量发展"的新阶段。 中国民营科技实业家协会新质生产力工委秘书长高泽龙向《证券日报》记者表示:"政策、技术与 消费升级等因素将共筑生猪养殖行业的增长基石。国家鼓励规模化养殖,环保政策倒逼散户退出,行业 集中度持续提升。在智能化养殖等创新因素驱动下,养殖成本正在不断下降,种猪改良技术也对生产效 率的提升带来积极影响。此外,消费升级推动着生猪养殖行业向高附加值方向发展。" 据悉,新希望的生猪养殖成本继续降低。今年第三季度,其运营场线出栏肥猪完全成本降至12.9 元/公斤,同时,该公司的核心生产指标持续改善,比如窝均断奶数在第三季度达到11.5,PSY(每头种 母猪年断奶仔猪 ...
猪价“旺季不旺”全行业亏损,天邦食品按下投资“暂停键”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 10:32
面对持续低迷的猪价与全行业深陷的亏损困局,又一家上市猪企按下了资本扩张的"暂停键"。 天邦食品(002124.SZ)近日发布公告称,决定终止"天邦股份数智化猪场升级项目"。该项目原计划投 入募集资金13.06亿元,累计只投入1.46亿元,仅完成了约11%的投资,剩余资金将留存于募集资金专用 账户及暂时补充流动资金。 这一决定背后,是生猪行业持续近两年的价格低迷、产能过剩的现状,以及天邦食品自身资金链紧张、 处于预重整阶段的经营困境。 今年以来,猪价呈现"旺季不旺"的特征,目前全行业处于亏损状态。 终止项目是天邦食品在当前行业与公司双重困境下的战略收缩,也折射出上市猪企普遍面临的"现金为 王、准备过冬"的生存逻辑。随着生猪价格持续承压、全行业陷入深度亏损,今年第四季度上市猪企的 业绩难言乐观。 重整压力叠加行业寒冬,天邦食品被迫终止募投项目 天邦食品此次终止的"数智化猪场升级项目"曾是其向智能化、高效率养殖转型的重要布局,项目建设期 为2年。 2023年,公司通过向特定对象发行股票募集资金净额11.87亿元,并将2019年非公开发行剩余资金4.34亿 元一并投入该项目,承诺投资总额达13.06亿元。然而,项目推 ...
供给压力逐步缓解 春节前猪价预计温和回升
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-25 18:38
Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads, signaling a gradual alleviation of the previous overcapacity in the pig industry, which had led to persistently low pork prices [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Trends - As of the end of October, the national breeding sow inventory is reported to be below 40 million heads, which is a significant reduction from previous levels [1]. - Experts predict that the reduction in inventory will contribute to a gradual recovery in pork prices, especially as the peak consumption season approaches during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The average price of pork has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week and 25.9% year-on-year during the week of November 14-20, indicating ongoing price pressures despite the inventory adjustments [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures and Industry Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented measures to guide a reduction of approximately 1 million breeding sows, in collaboration with other governmental departments [2]. - A recent meeting emphasized the need for comprehensive capacity regulation and the establishment of a high-quality development framework for the pig industry, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and industry chain collaboration [3]. - The Ministry aims to enhance the competitiveness of the pig industry by improving breeding systems, optimizing processing layouts, and ensuring effective disease control measures [3].
生猪产能调控,新信号!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 04:09
农业农村部最新公布数据显示,10月末全国能繁母猪存栏量重新回到4000万头以下。 接受记者采访的专家认为,此前因存栏量偏高叠加二次育肥等投机行为,猪价持续低迷,而当前产能去 化的推进,有利于未来市场形势稳步向好。春节前,猪肉消费进入全年最旺季节,同时供给充裕,预计 猪价将温和回升、窄幅波动。未来仍需推进生猪产能有效调减,同时同步提升发展质量,推动供给和消 费逐步趋于平衡。 最新数据显示,10月末全国能繁母猪存栏量重新回到4000万头以下。这是自去年年中以来,这一指标首 次降至4000万头以下。 "这标志着前期生猪产能过剩的压力正在逐步缓解。"中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所研究员朱增勇 对记者表示,此前因存栏量偏高叠加二次育肥等投机行为,猪价持续低迷,而当前产能去化的推进,有 利于未来市场形势稳步向好。 生猪产能综合调控再加强 去年下半年以来,农业农村部开展逆周期调节,引导各方面有序调减生猪产能。今年年中,进一步实施 生猪产能综合调控,设立了引导调减约100万头能繁母猪的目标,并联合国家发展改革委和国家金融监 管总局等部门出台了配套措施。 虽然生猪产业产能调控见效,但距离目标仍有一定距离,相关工作仍将持续推进 ...
生猪产能调控,新信号!
证券时报· 2025-11-25 03:49
农业农村部最新公布数据显示,10月末全国能繁母猪存栏量重新回到4000万头以下。 接受记者采访的专家认为,此前因存栏量偏高叠加二次育肥等投机行为,猪价持续低迷,而当前产能去化的推进,有利于未来市场形势稳步向好。春节前,猪肉消 费进入全年最旺季节,同时供给充裕,预计猪价将温和回升、窄幅波动。未来仍需推进生猪产能有效调减,同时同步提升发展质量,推动供给和消费逐步趋于平 衡。 近一周来,农业农村部频繁释放加强产能调控的信号。11月21日,农业农村部召开部常务会议,审议并原则通过《关于加强产能综合调控促进生猪产业高质量发展 的意见》。此外,农业农村部11月18日—19日在安徽蚌埠召开稳定畜牧业生产工作推进会也强调,要全力保障主要畜产品市场稳定,加快落实生猪产能综合调控。 生猪产能综合调控再加强 去年下半年以来,农业农村部开展逆周期调节,引导各方面有序调减生猪产能。今年年中,进一步实施生猪产能综合调控,设立了引导调减约100万头能繁母猪的 目标,并联合国家发展改革委和国家金融监管总局等部门出台了配套措施。 虽然生猪产业产能调控见效,但距离目标仍有一定距离,相关工作仍将持续推进。11月21日,农业农村部召开部常务会议,审 ...
猪价跌穿成本线,一位“养鸡女博士”凭什么实现单头猪毛利全国第二?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 15:02
(来源:猪兜) 近期,生猪养殖行业正经历一场深刻的调整。从提前终止猪场租赁,到多家行业龙头陆续叫停多个养殖 项目、主动关停部分猪场,行业整体收缩产能的态势明显。这一系列动作背后,是生猪价格持续低迷、 养殖成本高企、市场供需失衡的现实压力。不少企业选择"减重前行",通过终止项目、退租猪场、优化 资产来应对行业寒冬。然而,就在这片收缩声中,一家以"清远鸡"闻名的企业,却凭借其在生猪养殖领 域的深耕,成功向港交所递交招股书,走出了一条不一样的道路。 一 行业收缩,产能调控成共识 今年以来,生猪养殖企业普遍面临经营压力。多家养猪业龙头企业认为继续推进可能面临投资回报不达 预期的风险;有的陆续终止七个猪场建设项目,将剩余资金用于补充流动资金;温氏股份也关停了部分 猪场,有的因政策调整被划入限养区,有的则暂缓运营以进行升级改造。行业整体转向谨慎,反映出对 当前市场环境的共识:生猪产能过剩、价格低迷,企业必须通过收缩战线、优化结构来抵御风险。 这一趋势也与政策导向相契合。农业农村部近期审议通过的《关于加强产能综合调控促进生猪产业高质 量发展的意见》明确提出,要加强生猪产能综合调控,动态调整能繁母猪保有量目标,开展逆周期调 ...
农业板块逆势上涨,农业ETF天弘(512620)今日上市首秀火爆,成交额居同标的第一
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 02:35
Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in A-shares is experiencing a surge, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics, with significant gains in agricultural stocks and the launch of an agricultural ETF. Group 1: Market Performance - Agricultural stocks opened strongly, with Zhuan Yin Gao Ke hitting the daily limit of 20%, and Qiu Le Seed Industry and Kang Nong Seed Industry rising by 14% and 11% respectively [1] - The newly launched agricultural ETF Tianhong (512620) saw explosive trading, with a transaction volume reaching 40.73 million yuan, ranking first among similar products [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Outlook - Agriculture is considered a cornerstone of the national economy, with policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2025 Central Document No. 1 aimed at building a strong agricultural nation, benefiting constituent stocks [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, held a meeting with 25 pig farming enterprises to discuss production capacity regulation, indicating a proactive approach to implementing central policies [2] - Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows a decline in the number of breeding sows from July to September, suggesting a reduction in productive capacity [2] - A report from Huayuan Securities indicates that under the influence of production capacity regulation policies, pig prices may rebound earlier than expected, coupled with a potential decrease in costs for listed companies, leading to sustained profitability [2] Group 3: ETF Insights - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, selecting 50 stocks across sectors such as breeding (41.9%) and agricultural chemicals (17.7%), including leading companies like Muyuan and Haida [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the index is below the 10% percentile of the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation recovery and performance growth, especially with rising pig prices and inflows from institutional investors [2]
唐人神终止募投生猪项目补流,未来生猪养殖战略何去何从?
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-20 03:10
Core Viewpoint - The company has decided to terminate the funding for the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" and will permanently allocate the remaining raised funds of 78.96 million yuan to supplement working capital, pending shareholder approval [1][7]. Summary by Sections Project Termination - The company has cumulatively invested 15.97 million yuan in the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" as of November 18, 2025, primarily for preliminary infrastructure costs [2]. - The initial plan for the project included an investment of 152 million yuan, to be implemented by its subsidiary, Hunan Longhua Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. [4]. Financial Details - As of December 5, 2022, the company raised a total of 1.14 billion yuan, with a net amount of 1.1112 billion yuan after deducting related issuance costs [2]. - The remaining funds of 78.96 million yuan will be used to enhance the company's liquidity and operational efficiency [1][7]. Industry Context - Since 2020, the pig farming industry has experienced significant capacity expansion, leading to oversupply and persistently low pig prices, resulting in widespread losses in 2023 [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revised the "Pig Production Capacity Regulation Implementation Plan" in 2024, prompting the company to delay the project's implementation due to economic uncertainties [6]. Strategic Shift - The company plans to adopt a more cautious approach by prioritizing light-asset operational models such as leasing and partnerships, rather than continuing with the capital-intensive project [6]. - The decision to terminate the project is seen as a prudent move to optimize resource allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage, aligning with the company's current operational needs [7].