畜牧业是农业的重要组成部分。2026年中央一号文件提出，"强化生猪产能综合调控""培育具有国际竞 争力的农业企业"等，旨在推动畜牧业实现供求平衡与健康发展。 作为国内生猪养殖龙头企业，牧原股份积极响应国家生猪产能调控政策，2025年已超额完成330万头母 猪调减目标，截至2025年底存栏母猪323.2万头，较2025年初减少38.9万头。2026年1月底进一步调减到 313万头。生猪出栏体重从2025年5月的129公斤/头，降至2026年1月的117公斤/头，实现头均产肉量减 少。 针对2026年中央一号文件提出的"积极促进农民稳定增收"，牧原股份相关负责人表示，公司多年来一直 通过多种路径促进农民增收，助力乡村振兴。在牧原的赋能培养体系下，有7万余人从农民成长为"养猪 工程师"，平均年收入在13万元以上，其中还有7000名曾经的养猪户通过加入牧原实现了稳定就业与收 入提升。另外，牧原通过向中小养殖户提供优质种仔猪及专业技术服务，带动超1万名养殖户专业化生 产，未来也会向养殖户共享养猪大模型。 数据显示，牧原股份积极推广"猪养田、田养猪"循环农业模式，2025年，通过种养循环模式服务农田 492万亩，帮助农户 ...

截至2026年2月5日 10:23，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股回盛生物上涨2.64%，晓鸣股份上涨 2.07%，海大集团上涨1.96%，益客食品上涨1.48%，巨星农牧上涨1.36%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨 0.16%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报0.64元。 畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份、海大集 团、温氏股份、正邦科技、梅花生物、新希望、生物股份、大北农、圣农发展、立华股份，前十大权重 股合计占比66.61%。 山西证券指出，生猪养殖行业有望迎来新的一轮市场化去产能。同时，在生猪产业"反内卷"政策的引导 下，政策调控下的产能去化也同步推进。在上述两重因素叠加的影响之下，国内能繁母猪存栏量在经历 过前几个月的缓慢下降后开始出现加速去化的趋势。行业在上半年的猪价淡季里有望保持产能去化的趋 势，生猪养殖行业基本面和估值有望得到修复，目前板块尚处于市场预期和估值的低位。 消息面 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to national policies on pig production capacity regulation by reducing the number of breeding sows and eliminating low-yield sows, thereby contributing to the stability and healthy development of the pig industry [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.232 million heads by the end of December [1] - The company is taking the lead in capacity regulation and is committed to fulfilling its social responsibilities [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The company's actions are aimed at supporting the stable and healthy development of the pig industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to national policies on pig production capacity regulation by reducing the number of breeding sows and eliminating low-yield sows, thereby contributing to the stability and healthy development of the pig industry [1] Group 1 - The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.232 million heads by the end of December [1] - The company is taking a leading role in capacity regulation and is committed to fulfilling its social responsibilities [1] - The actions taken by the company are aimed at supporting the stable and healthy development of the pig industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the national pig market is difficult to change in the short term. The spot price of live pigs will remain at a low level even in the peak season. The futures market trend depends on market sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand [12] - The pressure on the supply side of live pigs remains high, the progress of sow capacity reduction is slow, and the winter demand improvement has limited pulling effect. The medium - term spot price of live pigs lacks continuous upward drive and may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to increase until the first half of 2026. The lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10][12] - The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1. Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results. However, the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation, and it does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. From April 2024 to November 2025, the inventory of breeding sows showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the sow capacity was basically stable in 2025. It is expected that the national live pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10] 3.1.2. Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally. The total domestic pork consumption shows a steady decline trend, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply pressure may further increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Pay attention to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand, and track the position dynamics of main funds [12] - Strategy: The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Spot - futures basis: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Futures spread: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Standard - fat and hair - white price difference: The demand support for fat pigs is relatively strong, and the price increase of fat pigs is greater than that of standard pigs. The national standard - fat price difference has widened to - 0.64 yuan/kg this week [42] - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7kg piglets is 309.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.03%. The current national piglet profit is about 30 yuan/head [46] - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows has adjusted narrowly following the live pig price. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust next week [49] 3.3. Capacity - Inventory of breeding sows: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results, and the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decline in January [54][57] - Culled volume of breeding sows: In December, the culled volume of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culled volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 11,518, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47%. It is expected that the culled volume may increase easily and decrease difficultly in January [61] - Inventory proportion of breeding sows: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In December, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17%. It is expected that the inventory will increase in January [69] - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The slaughter volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume may increase in December [72] - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: The weekly average slaughter weight of live pigs has adjusted narrowly and the center of gravity has slightly moved down. It is difficult to drive the increase of the slaughter weight [78] 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: The purchase cost of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the terminal reception is average, and the weekly average operating rate is weakly running. The slaughtering enterprises have reduced production to maintain prices, increased the fresh - sales ratio, and the frozen product inventory is in the stage of slow digestion [83] - Cold storage rate of slaughtering enterprises: After the festival, the market demand has declined, the purchase cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, and they have reduced production to maintain prices. The frozen product inventory level has continued to decline [86] - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will maintain a weak and narrow - range shock next week [89] - Substitute price: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig breeding industry has continued to narrow. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 63.5 yuan. The average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets is 39.11 yuan, a significant narrowing of 35.78 yuan from last week. It is expected that the breeding profit may be under pressure in the middle and late ten days [102] - Slaughtering gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Pig - to - grain ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio is 5.44, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The market is still in the state of excessive decline warning. It is expected that the pig - to - grain ratio will continue to slightly expand next week [108]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope has revised its A-share issuance plan for the second time, reducing the fundraising cap to 3.338 billion yuan, primarily to repay bank debts and invest in smart farming projects amid ongoing losses in its pig farming sector [2][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Financial Pressure - The initial fundraising plan announced in December 2023 aimed for a maximum of 7.35 billion yuan, with significant allocations for smart farming projects and debt repayment [2]. - The first revision in August 2024 lowered the cap to 3.8 billion yuan, eliminating the acquisition of minority stakes and adjusting project funding [2]. - The latest revision further reduces the cap to 3.338 billion yuan, with 2.338 billion yuan for smart farming and 1 billion yuan for debt repayment, highlighting the company's financial strain [2][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Policy Impact - The pig farming industry is facing challenges due to low prices and strict capacity controls, leading many companies to halt expansion projects [3][8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has mandated a reduction in breeding sows and overall production, impacting major players including New Hope [3]. - New Hope's smart farming project aims to upgrade existing facilities without expanding capacity, but the total investment of 2.92 billion yuan poses a long payback period risk [4]. Group 3: Performance and Profitability - New Hope's pig farming sector has incurred losses for four consecutive years, with total losses amounting to 111.5 billion yuan in 2021 and 2.8 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. - The company’s feed business, which accounted for 66.66% of revenue in 2024, has become a crucial profit source, although its profit margins are significantly lower than those of the pig farming sector [6][7]. - Recent trends show a decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping below 12 yuan per kilogram, further pressuring profitability [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Fundamental view - After the holiday, both the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises and the slaughter volume decreased, and the spot price of live pigs rose slightly. However, the overall supply pressure remains high, the progress of sows' capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is limited. The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [10][23]. - The inventory of reproductive sows is the core indicator of pig production capacity. In October 2025, it dropped to 39.9 million, falling below 40 million again after 17 months, indicating initial results in capacity regulation. But it is still in the green area of capacity regulation, not a sign of a new pig - price surge cycle. Due to improved production efficiency, the capacity reduction cycle is lengthened. The pig slaughter volume is expected to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle is predicted to be in Q1 2026. The weak spot market and reduced secondary fattening have weakened support for pig prices [10]. Strategy view and outlook - The industry is at a crucial stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, and the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase until the first half of 2026. Domestic pork consumption is declining, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term. There may be a "concentrated increase" in supply before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of reproductive sows, the slaughter rhythm, and secondary fattening scale [12]. - For the main contract, the resistance level is 12000 - 12300. In terms of options, one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental view**: Spot price rose slightly after the holiday, but supply pressure remains high and demand is limited; capacity regulation has achieved initial results, but the capacity reduction cycle is long. Pig slaughter volume will increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle may be in Q1 2026 [10]. - **Strategy view**: The main contract resistance level is 12000 - 12300, and one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot price**: The national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58%. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment [23]. - **Futures - spot basis**: No specific analysis provided. - **Futures spread**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - fat price**: The standard - fat price spread narrowed by 0.18 yuan/kg to - 0.61 yuan/kg this week [38]. - **Prices of piglets and binary sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan/head from last week, a week - on - week increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.41%. The price may rise to 400 yuan/head in the middle and late first quarter [42]. - **Price of culled sows**: The price of culled sows adjusted narrowly with the live - pig price. It may fluctuate next week [45]. 3.3 Capacity - **Inventory of reproductive sows**: In October 2025, it was 39.9 million, down 1.1% month - on - month, falling below 40 million again after 17 months. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly, and it may decline slightly in January [50][54]. - **Culling volume of reproductive sows**: In December, the culling volume of 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culling volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected to increase in January [57]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of commercial pigs**: In December, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, down 0.23% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 8.17% year - on - year. It is expected to increase in January [63]. - **Slaughter volume of commercial pigs**: In November, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, down 0.65% month - on - month and up 15.59% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, down 2.03% month - on - month and up 29.75% year - on - year. The slaughter volume may increase in December [66]. - **Average slaughter weight of commercial pigs**: The average slaughter weight adjusted narrowly and the weekly center of gravity moved down slightly [72]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Slaughter volume of live pigs**: In December 2025, as the curing season approached, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses increased by about 20% [77]. - **Cold storage rate of slaughterhouses**: After the holiday, the market demand declined, and the cold storage rate continued to decline as slaughterhouses sold frozen meat [82]. - **Operating rate and fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate decreased to 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week and up 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to run weakly next week [85]. - **Prices of substitutes**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of pig farming and slaughtering**: At the end of December, the self - breeding and self - raising model turned profitable, with a profit of 86 yuan/head. This week, the overall loss of the pig - farming industry decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising model had a profit of 59.26 yuan/head, and the model of purchasing piglets still had a loss of 74.89 yuan/head, but the loss narrowed [99]. - **Slaughter gross profit and feed - meat ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - grain ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 1.14% week - on - week. It is expected to be stable with a slight decline next week [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025/26, the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, with a slight decline in production and inventory. The trade pattern has changed, and the biodiesel policy is a key demand variable. In China, the supply pattern is supported by South American new - crop yields, and there may be a short - term supply tightening. The domestic pig industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price of soybean meal is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [2][3][4] - In 2026, the overall situation of soybean supply is expected to remain loose, but the weather in South American producing areas and the final output will be key variables. The pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which may boost the feed price. The price of soybean meal may show different trends in different quarters [37][38] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Review of Soybean Meal - In 2025, the global soybean supply was in a loose cycle, which pressured the CBOT futures. Biodiesel policies supported the price floor. The Sino - US trade game dominated price fluctuations. The price of US soybeans fluctuated in the bottom range of 970 - 1080 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal also fluctuated in the bottom range, and the annual fluctuation range was 2800 - 3100 yuan per ton [6] 2. Global Supply and Demand (1) Global Supply - In 2025/26, the global soybean production remained at a high level but decreased by 461 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%) compared with 2024/25. The end - of - period inventory decreased slightly, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased slightly. The future may enter a de - stocking cycle [8] - For the US, the USDA in November lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production by 329.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.76%) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 7.1% decrease in the planting area. The future planting area may change depending on the Sino - US trade relationship and the soybean/corn price ratio [9] - In South America, Brazil's production growth rate slowed down. Factors such as rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties restricted farmers' expansion willingness. Different institutions had different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 production, but it was generally at a high level. The rainfall and temperature at the end of the year and the beginning of next year were the key variables for the final output. Argentina's 2025/26 production was expected to decline by 5.10% due to a reduction in the planting area and the impact of La Nina [10][12][13] (2) Global Consumption - In 2025/26, the global soybean export consumption remained stable, and the growth rate of crushing consumption slowed down. The Sino - US trade friction changed the trade pattern, and the biodiesel policy affected the construction of the phased bottom of the soybean price [19] - For US soybeans, the export was difficult. The Sino - US trade relationship affected the export volume. The implementation of the biodiesel policy was postponed, but the future blending target was set at a high level, which would drive the demand [20][21] - In South America, Brazil's soybean export was strong in 2025, but over - concentration of exports made it vulnerable. Argentina expanded its export channels through policy incentives and began to export soybean meal to China. If the export to China becomes normalized, the global supply chain pattern may change [22][23] 3. Domestic Supply and Demand (1) South American New - Crop Yields Support the Domestic Supply Pattern, with Possible Short - Term Supply Tightening - In 2025, China's soybean import pattern changed due to the Sino - US trade game. From January to November, the cumulative import of soybeans increased by 6.88% year - on - year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 73.88%. The recent raw material supply may be less than expected due to factors such as shipping efficiency and quarantine procedures. The supply pattern in 2026 depends on whether the South American harvest is good [24][26][27] (2) Diversified Imports Expand, and Argentine Soybean Meal Imports May Open New Channels - In 2025, China took the initiative in the Sino - US soybean trade game and actively expanded import channels. The "dual - source supply structure" of "mainly Brazil and supplemented by Argentina" was formed, which increased China's bargaining power. If soybean meal imports become normalized, the domestic pricing logic and trade model may change [29] (3) Terminal Livestock Supply is Expected to Tighten, and Prices are Expected to Enter a New Cycle - In 2025, the pig inventory remained high, the supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the pig price fluctuated at the bottom. In 2026, the supply pressure will be gradually released in the first half of the year, and the pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which will boost the feed price [31][33] 4. Outlook for the 2026 Soybean Meal Market - In 2026, the US interest rate may decline, and the weakening of the US dollar will help US agricultural product exports. Globally, the supply is expected to remain loose, but the final output in South America is the key factor. Domestically, if the South American output does not change much, the supply pattern of soybean meal may remain loose. The livestock industry may have a turning point in the second half of the year [37] - The weather and output in South American producing areas are key variables for the cost side. In the first quarter of next year, the price is sensitive to positive factors. In the second and third quarters, the supply pressure is the greatest. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may change, and the price and basis may recover from the low level [38]

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a peak in supply due to high pig slaughter rates, while demand is also increasing as the holiday season approaches, leading to a stable yet slightly rising trend in pork prices. Group 1: Pig Prices and Supply - Pig prices have slightly decreased, with a stable slaughter rhythm and alleviated overcapacity pressure. In October, the slaughter volume reached 38.34 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1] - The average market price for pork in November was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 19.7% year-on-year. The average market price for live pigs was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month and down 27.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pig Grain Ratio - The pig-to-grain price ratio has increased slightly to 5.44:1 in November, up by 0.07 points from the previous month, although it remains below 5.5:1. The price of feed corn was 2.43 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 3.3% year-on-year [2] - Farmers are facing losses, with self-breeding farmers losing an average of 80 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets for fattening losing about 270 yuan per pig [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - In October, China's imports of fresh and frozen pork were 71,100 tons, down 11.1% month-on-month and down 21.1% year-on-year, with an import value of 144 million USD, down 11.7% month-on-month and down 25.0% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative imports from January to October were 859,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while exports increased significantly by 51.6% to 33,200 tons [3] Group 4: European Market Trends - European pork prices have been declining for four consecutive months due to increased production, export obstacles, and seasonal consumption declines, with wholesale prices at 1,700.45 euros per ton, down 4.7% month-on-month and down 11.8% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Price Expectations - As the supply of pigs reaches its annual peak and with effective measures in place to control production, pork prices are expected to remain stable with slight increases leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by rising consumer demand during the holiday season [5]