从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025/11/19 能源转型与碳中和组 伊 张默涵 《方案》的调整为碳价提供有效支撑,建议关注逢低买入的机会。 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短 ...

伊 张默涵 从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025/11/19 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 能源转型与碳中和组 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短期需关注基础结转量的增加带来的潜在需求是否能转化为有效的市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with new home and second-hand home transaction areas still showing negative year-on-year growth, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024. New construction starts and development investments continue to decline, and funding is tight, indicating an ongoing deleveraging cycle. The overall loss level of the industry has further expanded compared to the second quarter, suggesting that the fundamentals remain weak. Future policy support and stabilization of the industry are expected to drive market trends [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is benefiting from a dual advantage of cost and policy due to the elimination of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities. The sector is expected to see stable support from urban village renovations and the acceleration of affordable housing construction. Current valuations are at historical lows, making certain stocks attractive for defensive and long-term investment [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of November 13, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.07% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 11.37% [13][17]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to one focused on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [4][28]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 2.63% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.3 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.38% [29][32]. - The cement industry is expected to see a significant increase in profitability due to the implementation of carbon trading regulations and the elimination of inefficient capacities. The sector is supported by ongoing construction projects and a favorable valuation environment [4][50]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and Binhai Group (002244) in the real estate sector, and Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801) in the building materials sector [4][53].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the national carbon emission trading market prices are normal and influenced by multiple factors such as supply-demand relationships, market expectations, trading behaviors, and market psychology [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Impact - The State Council approved the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into the carbon emission trading market, marking a significant step in promoting green and low-carbon transformation in these sectors [3]. - The carbon market's expansion is expected to enhance emission reduction responsibilities for enterprises, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on stable carbon emission industries by 2027 [3][5]. Group 2: Low-Carbon Investment and Innovation - The carbon market has driven low-carbon investments and accelerated the innovation and promotion of green low-carbon technologies, with enterprises integrating carbon asset management into their daily operations [4]. - The carbon trading has reportedly reduced the overall emission reduction costs in the power generation sector by approximately 35 billion RMB during the first two compliance cycles, indicating a positive impact on cost-effectiveness in the newly included industries [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to further expand the coverage of the carbon market, prioritize total volume control in stable carbon emission industries, and enhance the pricing function of the carbon market to reflect true emission reduction costs [5].

Core Points - The national carbon emissions trading market will gradually shift from intensity control to total control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a goal to cover major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market and implement total quota control and paid allocation [1][2] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon emissions trading market is expected to enhance corporate responsibility for emissions reduction [2][4] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued its first document on carbon market construction, demonstrating a strong commitment to addressing climate change [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the establishment of the national carbon market and expand its coverage to major emission industries by 2027 [1][2] Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The development of a voluntary emission reduction trading market is being expedited, with a focus on creating a comprehensive methodological system to support social voluntary reductions [2][5] - As of October 28, the voluntary emission reduction trading market has registered 31 projects and achieved a total transaction volume of 3.25 million tons, with a transaction value of 270 million yuan [5] Industry Impact - Since the launch of the national carbon market, the power generation sector has established internal carbon management systems, leading to reduced emissions costs by approximately 35 billion yuan during the first two compliance periods [4] - The diversification of industry participants following the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum is expected to facilitate cross-industry resource allocation and lower overall emissions reduction costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China is advancing the construction of a national carbon market, focusing on green and low-carbon transformation as outlined in the recent policy directives [1]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market will expand its coverage to include major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027 [1]. - A total quota control and paid allocation system will be implemented, transitioning from intensity control to total control based on national greenhouse gas emission targets [1]. - The allocation of quotas will gradually shift towards a higher proportion of paid distribution, combining free and paid methods [1]. Group 2: Quota Management and Pricing - There will be a gradual tightening of quotas to enhance their scarcity, which will help carbon prices more accurately reflect the costs of emissions reduction in China [1]. - This approach aims to provide clearer price signals for optimizing key industries and facilitating green and low-carbon transformation [1]. Group 3: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The construction of a voluntary emission reduction trading market will be accelerated, with a focus on developing a comprehensive methodological system to support social voluntary reductions [1]. - The initiative aligns with the ecological value transformation of the "Two Mountains" concept [1]. Group 4: Market Vitality and Financial Products - Efforts will be made to enhance the vitality of the national carbon market by exploring and developing green financial products and services related to carbon emissions rights and certified voluntary reductions [1]. - The aim is to diversify the types and numbers of trading entities and strengthen market transaction supervision [1].

Group 1 - The independent director Han Fang of Electric Power Investment Energy is unreachable, but the company asserts that this will not affect the board's operations or the company's management [1][3] - The company has confirmed that all other board members are functioning normally, and the board will not fall below the legal minimum number of members [3] - The company will continue to monitor the situation and fulfill disclosure obligations as required [3] Group 2 - For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.52% to 1.331 billion yuan [4] - Year-to-date revenue reached 22.403 billion yuan, up 2.72%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.118 billion yuan, down 6.40% [4] - The company's cash balance at the end of the period was 4.276 billion yuan, an increase of 43.50% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to increased collections from coal and aluminum sales [4] Group 3 - The company faced profit pressure due to a significant increase in operating expenses, with non-operating expenses rising by 520.17% mainly due to estimated carbon emission trading [5] - Income tax expenses increased by 21.10% due to changes in the western region's encouraged industry directory, resulting in the parent company no longer enjoying tax incentives [5]

Robotics - A significant breakthrough in robotics algorithms has been achieved by a Chinese research team, introducing the world's first unified theory of "force-position hybrid control algorithm" that does not rely on force sensors, improving task success rates by approximately 39.5% compared to position-only control strategies [1] - The new algorithm enables robots to perform six types of operations, including position tracking and compliant force application, without sensors, enhancing human-robot collaboration safety through real-time interaction capabilities [1] - This advancement positions China at the forefront of intelligent control in robotics, providing critical technological support for industries such as smart manufacturing and rehabilitation [1] Deep Earth Economy - The Ministry of Natural Resources of China has announced plans to accelerate the standardization of emerging industries related to deep sea and deep earth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with deep earth economy expected to be included in the planning [2] - The deep earth economy encompasses activities related to the development of deep earth resources and space utilization, becoming a new economic form that is rapidly developing under policy support and technological advancements [2] - This sector is crucial for resource security and is anticipated to receive strong policy backing during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a golden development period [2] Carbon Emissions - Hubei Province has launched an ecological environment rights trading platform that allows for the trading of ecological product values, with a cumulative transaction volume in the carbon market exceeding 10 billion yuan, ranking first in the country [3] - The platform integrates five core functions, including carbon emission rights and ecological product value realization, providing a one-stop service for enterprises' low-carbon transformation and enhancing resource allocation efficiency [3] CPO (Cloud and AI) - Demand for 1.6T optical modules is on the rise, with overseas clients increasing their procurement plans for 2026, driven by the accelerated deployment of AI training and inference networks [4] - The total demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise from 10 million to 20 million units, reflecting the growing bandwidth requirements in the AI sector [4] Storage Chips - Micron Technology's executive has indicated that the DRAM supply situation will be more severe in 2026 due to high bandwidth memory (HBM) consuming three times the wafers compared to traditional DRAM products [5] - The current capacity of major memory manufacturers is being directed towards HBM production, with rising costs and time for establishing new DRAM wafer fabs limiting large-scale expansion in the short term [5] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation have initiated a pilot program for joint regulation of accounting agencies in three provinces [6] - A meeting on cement industry growth emphasized the need for strict adherence to capacity replacement policies by major enterprises [6] - The "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" was released, setting a target for annual new wind power installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] Market Trends - Recent data indicates that net subscriptions for equity ETFs reached 163.3 billion yuan in the past month, with significant interest in semiconductor and non-bank financial themed ETFs [7] - The fundraising pace for new funds has accelerated, with ten equity funds announcing early closure of their fundraising periods [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a positive trend with the three major indices opening low and rising, particularly the 300ESGETF (159791) which increased by 0.64%, with notable gains in stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 6%, Sungrow Power over 5%, and ZTE over 4% [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued guidelines to promote green and low-carbon transformation, establishing a timeline for the national carbon market to cover major emission industries by 2030 [1] - The guidelines aim to enhance the carbon market by transitioning from single industry control to a multi-industry compatible market, which is expected to lower overall emission reduction costs and attract more financial capital for low-carbon transformation and high-quality development [1] Group 2 - The 300ESGETF (159791) closely tracks the CSI 300 ESG benchmark index, which excludes the lowest 20% of companies by ESG score from the CSI 300 sample, providing a performance benchmark and investment targets for ESG investments [2] - The fund has both onshore and offshore connection classes, specifically Class A (020868) and Class C (020869) [3]