南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年6月23日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569) 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间59000-62000 | 18.9% | 17.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2509 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划， ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by a subdued atmosphere, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward trend in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Overview - Global lithium resource capacity is projected to reach 1.9-1.95 million tons (LCE equivalent) in 2025, with actual production around 1.6-1.65 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons [3]. - Domestic lithium carbonate monthly demand increased to 88,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, indicating a robust demand despite external tariff disruptions [4]. - The production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and 44% [3]. Price Trends and Cost Analysis - The average price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trajectory, with the decline rate slowing down as inventory levels decrease [4]. - Current lithium carbonate prices are near the breakeven point, prompting some lithium salt manufacturers to limit production since May, which has temporarily slowed the market's downward trend [8]. - If lithium carbonate prices drop to 50,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding lithium resource supply capacity would be around 1.2 million tons, which may not meet the demand even with existing inventories [8][10]. Market Disruptions and Future Outlook - Potential disruptions in the lithium market include environmental and geopolitical constraints affecting projects in Eastern Europe, Bolivia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The production enthusiasm for new lithium salt projects in Argentina may remain below expectations due to high profit forecasts [15]. - The acceleration of profit localization in Zimbabwe could undermine the cost advantages of African lithium mines [16]. - The market may continue to face pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but prices approaching 55,000 yuan may lead some upstream mining companies to reconsider their production strategies [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59080 - 60480. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,127 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 86,102 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 14,857 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 60,536 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.51%, with a production loss of 879 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 65,237 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 7,076 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,868 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On June 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 57,653 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,210 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 133,549 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 on the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, changing from long to short [8]. - **Expectation**: In May 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 78,875 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.43%. The import volume in May was 23,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease. The price of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - dominated [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and cathode materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.79% day - on - day, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.25% day - on - day [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate was 62.7%, and the daily production cost of spodumene was 60,536 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate was 54%, and the monthly production was 225,200 tons [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production of domestic spodumene and lithium mica has also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for different types of lithium ore [20][21]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The import volume of lithium carbonate also shows different trends [26][27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [34][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed over time. There are also differences in the cost and profit of different production processes and product types [41][42][43]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide shows different trends in different periods, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other aspects [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales**: The price, production, and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The cost of battery cells also shows different trends [52][53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time. The capacity utilization rate also shows different trends [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The operating rate and inventory also show different trends [65][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The operating rate, export volume, and inventory also show different trends [70][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also show different trends [77][78][81][82].

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 碳酸锂期货周报（20250616-0620） 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 16 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 有色小组 研究员 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 杨明明：从业资格号：F03136091 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号： F3029146 投资咨询号： Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 综述；矿价企稳，区间震荡为主 品种： 碳酸锂 本周看法： 矿价企稳，区间震荡为主 风险偏好较高者可把握区间波动机会。 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 2 / 7 1. 行业资讯：津巴布韦 2027 年将禁锂精矿出口。当地时间 6 月 10 日 ...

| | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 59,940 | -500 | -500 | 1,080 | -3,280 | -17,060 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 169,471 | -237 | -87,311 | -216,674 | -47,562 | 160,924 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 147,432 | -15,450 | -70,984 | -140,074 | -146,794 | 113,120 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 59,800 | -680 | -1,120 | 700 | -4,720 | -19,120 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 177,158 | 22,618 | 65,515 | 71,397 | 152,257 | 175,024 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 266,931 | 2 ...

一、日度市场总结 ： 碳酸锂主力合约价格于6月6日收于60440元/吨，较前一交易日小幅上涨 0.57%，短期反弹但上方压力仍存，期货反弹叠加现货价格持稳，基差有所 收敛。 ： 主力合约持仓量显著收缩，6月6日降至218416手，环比减少5.69%。成交量 小幅扩大至256782手，环比增加4.98%，日内交易活跃度提升，但缺乏持续 性增仓支撑。 ： 锂盐供应预期仍旧宽松，锂辉石及锂云母精矿价格持平，港口锂矿库存压 力持续，原料成本支撑弱化。5月下旬期货反弹刺激非一体化锂盐厂套保， 6月开工率存恢复性增量预期；产能利用率环比微升0.4个百分点至62.5%， 盐厂工艺逐步优化，中长期供应压力未减。 ： 下游需求结构性分化但整体偏弱。乘联会数据显示5月新能源车零售同比增 30%至105.6万辆，渗透率突破53.5%，但终端动力电池排产因销售淡季回 落；正极材料中三元材料及磷酸铁锂价格持平，但订单疲软，材料厂以消 耗库存为主，钴酸锂等产品因成本下行持续承压。新建电池产能释放节奏 放缓，市场观望情绪浓厚。 ： 碳酸锂库存环比增加0.65%至132432吨，延续累库趋势；仓单数据未更新， 但现货成交清淡反映实际去库动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply, with prices likely to continue facing downward pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,456 yuan per ton, down 445 yuan per ton from the previous working day [1] - Demand from downstream material manufacturers is limited, with production increases in June being minimal, leading to a reliance on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials for procurement [1] - On the supply side, previous slight price rebounds have provided opportunities for some non-integrated lithium salt manufacturers to resume production, creating expectations for increased market supply [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年5月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 上周碳酸锂产量为16093吨 环比减少3 高于历史同期平均水平 22% ， ， 。 . , | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为82550吨 环比减少4 62% 上周三元材料 ， ， . , | | | | 样本企业库存为15176吨 环比减少0 07% ， . 。 | | 1 | 基本面: | 成本端来看 外购锂辉石精矿成本为66208元/吨 日环比减少0 15% 生产所得为 ， ， . , 中性 | | 、 | | 。 5065元/吨 有所亏损 外购锂云母成本为66952元/吨 日环比持平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The price of the LC2507 contract is projected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] - The market is transitioning from trading the logic of collapsing mine - end costs to trading the trend of mine shutdowns. However, due to the lack of concentrated shutdowns of high - cost projects and relatively low costs, there is no room for price rebound [4] - For hedging, it is recommended to increase the proportion of buying hedging to 50% in the short - term, and buy spot ore and sell on the futures market to lock in processing profits. In the long - term, selling hedging should still be the main strategy, with a short - term proportion of 30% [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by a decline with increasing positions. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan/ton week - on - week; the LC2509 contract closed at 62,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 1,450 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM basis (2505 contract) weakened by 610 yuan/ton to 2,090 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was + 490 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The lithium ore price dropped to $690/ton, but the decline rate slowed. Some mines started to cut or halt production. In May, the Bikita mining area's emissions nearly stopped, and concentrator work was expected to be cut or stopped. Dongpeng's production cut affected about 1,500 tons of LCE per month [2] - In April, China imported 622,900 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, and 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56.3% increase from the previous month. In the future, the shipments of spodumene and lithium salts from Mali's Kodal and Goulamina projects will gradually increase, while shipments from Zimbabwe projects are expected to decrease. Lithium salt imports are expected to decrease due to high inventories and the cancellation of the reserve price [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,093 tons, a 3.23% decrease from the previous week. The overall smelting - end operating rate was 45.75%, a decrease in operation [2] Demand - The 90 - day tariff relaxation period in the US brought a small amount of rush - shipping demand, mainly for the export of energy - storage batteries. However, the tariff level of 40.9% is still higher than the profit of battery cell manufacturers, so the overall effect is limited [2] - This week, the passenger car sales were 382,000 vehicles, among which new energy vehicle sales were 215,000 vehicles, a 3.59% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery manufacturers' orders to cathode material manufacturers in June are expected to increase month - on - month. However, due to profit losses, cathode material enterprises are maintaining rigid raw material inventory, reducing cathode material production, and actively reducing inventory [2] 3.3 Inventory - The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Upstream enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, while downstream enterprises actively reduced inventory. The lithium carbonate inventory was 13.2 tons, a decrease of 141 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased to 35,800 tons [3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be volatile. The price of the 2507 contract is expected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery trading, no recommendation is given for now [4][5]

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...