【纠错】 【责任编辑:王頔】 记者1月28日从全国税务工作会议上获悉，2026年，税务部门将会同相关部门深化税收制度改革，优化 税制结构，推动地方政府用足用好地方税种法定授权，着力拓展地方税源，增加地方自主财力。税务部 门还将会同有关部门推动基本养老保险全国统筹、基本医疗保险省级统筹，鼓励支持新就业形态人员参 加职工保险，推进加快建立长期护理保险制度，切实增强人民群众获得感幸福感。（记者刘开雄） ...

Core Insights - The Japanese real estate market, particularly in Tokyo, is transitioning from a phase of "overall increase" to one requiring "fine judgment" among investors [1] - The upcoming 2026 market is characterized by Tokyo's dominance, but underlying structural differentiation and a ceiling effect in urban tower prices are changing market dynamics [2] Macroeconomic Environment - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate to 0.75% in December 2025, signaling a departure from the "ultra-low interest rate era" and a consensus on rising funding costs [4] - Despite the macroeconomic changes, the Tokyo real estate market is increasingly driven by investment rather than basic housing needs, leading to a significant price increase [6] Investment Trends - The influx of foreign capital is a key driver of the robust performance in Japan's real estate investment market in 2025, as geopolitical tensions prompt a search for "safe, transparent, and predictable" investment destinations [6] - Japan remains an attractive option for foreign investors, with a projected total real estate investment of approximately 6 trillion yen in 2025, continuing into 2026 [8] Market Characteristics - The proportion of foreign buyers in new condominium projects in central Tokyo is rising, with some developments seeing over 20% foreign ownership [10] - High-end projects in areas like Minato have over 50% ownership by foreign entities and corporations, indicating a trend towards financialization of Tokyo's residential market [11] Housing Market Dynamics - The income required to purchase new condominiums in central Tokyo is substantial, with families needing an annual income of 20 to 30 million yen [11] - The supply of new condominiums is nearing a bottom, leading to limited price increase potential, while the second-hand market shows signs of inventory buildup [11] Policy Changes - Recent tax reforms have expanded the eligibility for housing loan tax deductions, which may inadvertently drive up housing prices in the short term [13][14] - The market is expected to see price adjustments in the second half of 2026, particularly in the second-hand market, as demand weakens [15] Future Outlook - The Japanese real estate market is entering a new phase where asset allocation and operational capabilities will determine success [16] - The investment logic is shifting from "buy and hold" to a focus on asset selection, location, and cash flow [17] - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach rather than emotional decision-making in the current market environment [18]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed tax reform by the U.S. tax authorities could significantly reshape the investment landscape for sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, potentially imposing tax obligations on their investments in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tax Reform Proposal - The IRS proposed changes to Section 892 of the tax code, which may subject sovereign wealth funds and certain public pension funds to U.S. tax obligations on their investments [1][2] - The proposal expands the definition of "commercial activities," reclassifying some previously exempt investment activities as taxable [1][2] - Direct loans and private equity co-investments by sovereign funds may lose their tax exemptions under the new rules [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Direct Lending - The proposal redefines the boundary between investment and commercial activities, categorizing direct loans and active roles in debt restructuring as commercial activities [2] - If sovereign funds actively provide debt financing and negotiate loan terms, even a single loan could be classified as a commercial activity, losing tax exemption [2] - Certain debt investments may have a "safe harbor" provision, protecting government and corporate bonds from the new rules, but direct private credit will face stricter scrutiny [2] Group 3: Effects on Private Equity Investments - The new rules could disrupt the structure of private equity investments, as sovereign funds often use special purpose entities to isolate tax liabilities [3] - The definition of "actual control" is expanded, meaning that sovereign funds could be deemed to have control even without majority ownership if they can influence decisions [3] - This change poses challenges for sovereign funds engaged in co-investments or direct investments, as they may now be classified as having actual control [3] Group 4: Broader Tax Implications - Sovereign funds classified as "controlled entities" may face severe consequences, as any engagement in commercial activities could lead to the loss of tax exemptions on all U.S. income [4] - A sovereign fund with a large U.S. investment portfolio could lose tax exemption status due to minor commercial activities conducted by its foreign subsidiaries [4] - The potential retroactive effect of the new rules could impact existing investments, raising concerns among sovereign funds [4] Group 5: Market Impact and Policy Outlook - Global sovereign wealth funds manage approximately $15 trillion in assets, with a significant portion allocated to direct investments [5] - The new regulations may drive sovereign funds to abandon direct investment strategies in favor of more passive investment structures [5] - The fate of the proposal remains uncertain, as previous tax reform proposals have faced challenges, and the close ties between the Trump family and sovereign funds add complexity to the situation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to improve the local tax and direct tax systems as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for a comprehensive reform to enhance the tax structure and promote economic and social development [1][13]. Summary by Sections Current Status of China's Direct Tax System - Direct taxes in China primarily include income taxes and property taxes, such as personal income tax, urban land use tax, and vehicle and vessel tax [2][14]. - Some taxes, like property tax, have characteristics of both direct and indirect taxes, complicating the classification [3][15]. - The current direct tax system includes 13 types of taxes, with local taxes making up a significant portion, yet the revenue from these taxes is relatively low, totaling over 800 billion yuan in 2024, which is less than half of the national tax revenue [4][16]. Recent Progress in Direct Tax System Improvement - Significant advancements have been made since 2013, including the abolition of certain taxes and the introduction of the environmental protection tax in 2018 [6][18]. - By 2024, direct tax revenue increased from 61,225.9 billion yuan in 2012 to 81,462.6 billion yuan, marking a 33.1% growth, although the proportion of direct taxes in total tax revenue decreased from 60.9% to 46.5% [7][19]. Proposed Measures for Further Improvement - The government may consider simplifying the tax system by integrating various taxes and ensuring a more rational tax burden [8][20]. - There is a need to enhance the legal framework for taxes, particularly for property tax and personal income tax, to ensure effective implementation and compliance [9][21]. - Suggestions include adjusting corporate and personal income tax structures, such as lowering the corporate tax rate from 25% to around 20% and revising personal income tax brackets and deductions [10][22]. - Expanding the scope of direct taxes by merging certain fees and taxes could significantly increase direct tax revenue, potentially raising the proportion of direct taxes in total revenue to 64.5% by 2024 [11][23]. Conclusion - The ongoing efforts to refine China's direct tax system are crucial for enhancing fiscal capacity and ensuring equitable tax distribution, which will support broader economic and social objectives [12][24].

Core Viewpoint - Taxation serves as a fundamental, pillar, and guarantee role in national governance, essential for economic regulation, social equity, and national security [1][2]. Group 1: Role of Taxation - Taxation is the material foundation for the operation of the state, supporting various public services and social security systems, especially in a developing country with over 1.4 billion people [2]. - Taxation acts as an important lever for macroeconomic regulation, optimizing resource allocation and promoting social equity through tax policy adjustments [2]. - Taxation provides institutional guarantees for social justice, helping to narrow the wealth gap and support basic public services for disadvantaged groups [2]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Taxation - The belief that "no profit means no tax" is misleading, as tax obligations can arise from various taxable activities regardless of profit status [3]. - The notion that tax burdens threaten business survival overlooks the relationship between taxation and business development, as taxes are a necessary cost of compliance and contribute to public services that support business growth [3]. - The idea that tax avoidance is a reasonable behavior is incorrect; while tax incentives are legal, evading taxes undermines public interest and market fairness [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Tax Governance - Continuous tax system reform is necessary to build a modern tax structure, focusing on optimizing tax functions and stabilizing the macro tax burden [4]. - Precision in tax policy implementation is crucial to support national development strategies, including incentives for technological innovation and regional development [4]. - Strengthening tax regulation and fostering a cooperative tax governance framework involving social organizations can enhance compliance and fairness in the tax system [4].

谈及社会保障支出，林双林建议增加中央政府支出份额，中央政府管理社会保障。他说："在中央和地 方财政事权和财权划分中，我国的主要问题不是中央政府拿的钱多，而是中央政府管的事相对少，中央 政府直接支出不足。" 地方事权多，面对当前社会关注度比较高的地方债问题，林双林建议设立债务上限；增加地方政府税收 份额；建立地方税种，如财产税、销售税；减少地方政府支出责任，增加中央政府支出责任；逐步建立 预算硬约束，发展地方经济。 他还以美国为例谈到，美国州和地方政府也曾经遇到过严重的债务问题。1838年联邦政府债务占各级政 府债务总和的3%，州政府占86%，地方（县、市、区）政府占12.5%。州和地方政府债务危机多次爆 发，联邦政府曾帮助州政府还过债，但后来不再救援，并强制地方政府还债。州和地方政府吸取债务危 机的惨痛教训，健全地方税制；量入为出，减少不必要开支；设定债务上限，实行硬预算约束；同时， 联邦政府也承担更多支出责任，通过了地方政府破产法；最终，州和地方政府债务过高的问题得到解 决。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 南都讯记者杨文君发自北京 1月13日晚，北大国发院公开课第4期暨北大博雅讲坛第695期在校内举行， 北大国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the value-added tax (VAT) policy for personal housing sales aims to reduce the tax burden on individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years, effective January 1, 2026, with a VAT rate of 3% for such sales, while homes held for two years or more will be exempt from VAT [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Details - The core highlight of the policy is the reduction of the VAT rate for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years from 5% to 3%, which is a significant tax relief measure [1][3]. - This adjustment is a direct implementation of the new VAT law and reflects a precise micro-adjustment in housing market policy, aimed at addressing market circulation issues and enhancing the real estate transaction mechanism [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The reduction in VAT will directly alleviate the financial burden on ordinary buyers and sellers, with a potential tax reduction of 40% for homes valued at 1 million yuan, decreasing the VAT from 50,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan [3]. - The policy maintains the exemption of VAT for homes held for two years or more, promoting a unified national policy framework, which is expected to narrow the price expectations between buyers and sellers [3]. Group 3: Market Mechanism - Lowering transaction costs for second-hand homes is expected to activate the existing housing market, alleviating stagnation in certain cities [4]. - The sale of older homes by those seeking to upgrade is often a prerequisite for purchasing new homes, thus facilitating the flow of second-hand homes can stimulate demand for new homes, creating a positive interaction between the two markets [4]. - The reduction in transaction costs will enhance the liquidity of housing assets and support the transition of the real estate market from being investment-driven to consumption-driven, leading to more efficient resource allocation [4]. Group 4: Broader Context - While the VAT reduction serves as a "lubricant" for market circulation, it is not a "universal key" for the recovery of the housing market, as the core issues remain weak expectations, insufficient demand, and structural imbalances [4]. - The policy needs to be complemented by broader reforms aimed at improving macroeconomic expectations, enhancing housing security systems, and optimizing land supply structures to maximize its effectiveness [4][5]. - The stability and healthy development of the real estate market are crucial for the overall economy and public welfare, with the tax reduction being a necessary reform that benefits the public and facilitates market circulation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The economic plan of Chile's newly elected president, Gabriel Boric, focuses on regulatory facilitation, tax reform, and fiscal adjustment to create and protect jobs while emphasizing the importance of private sector integrity [1] Group 1: Regulatory Facilitation - The government aims to address bottlenecks in land use and environmental assessment systems to promote regulatory ease [1] Group 2: Tax Reform - The plan includes a reduction in the corporate income tax rate for medium and large enterprises from 27% to 23%, and a further reduction to 20% for companies hiring workers at risk of informal employment [1] Group 3: Fiscal Adjustment - The government intends to implement fiscal adjustments to streamline national finances, with a fundamental goal of job creation and protection [1] Group 4: Private Sector Integrity - The economic advisor urges the business community to uphold corporate culture and the role of the private sector, warning against actions that could lead to scandals or collusion that would harm the new government [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangzhou Forum 2025 Annual Meeting" held from December 27 to 28 focuses on the theme "Smart Transformation of Business, Strengthening the Bay Area: A New Journey for Modern Industrial System," aiming to explore paths for industrial transformation and high-quality development in Guangzhou [1]. Group 1: Forum Highlights - The forum gathered representatives from various sectors, including government, industry, academia, and research, to discuss key issues and future directions for the construction of a modern industrial system in Guangzhou [1]. - The Hong Kong Pacific Association's international cooperation strategy was launched during the forum, aimed at promoting cooperation and international exchange within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Zheng Yongnian proposed five areas for systemic reform necessary for building a modern industrial system, emphasizing that competition in the era of artificial intelligence is fundamentally a competition of reforms [3]. - Xu Shanda analyzed the changes in productivity characteristics, capital, and labor demand in the AI era, advocating for a new round of tax reform to stimulate investment from state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises [3]. - Tian Jietang outlined a strategic framework for constructing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, suggesting targeted policies for traditional industries to enhance their high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated transformation [4]. Group 3: Development Strategies - Cao Yuanzheng recommended leveraging China's large-scale industrial system to transform Guangzhou from a traditional port into a core service node of the global supply chain [4]. - Chen Xu highlighted Guangzhou's initiatives, such as establishing industrial task forces and mapping industrial chains, to promote collaboration with other cities in the Greater Bay Area and create a "business-friendly" environment [4]. - The forum also featured discussions on "Integration of Science and Technology with Industry: Urban Practices for Building a Modern Industrial System" and "The Path to Industrial Modernization in Guangzhou: Recreating a New Guangzhou," bringing together experts and industry representatives for in-depth dialogue [5].

Economic Policy - The meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on the integration effects of stock and incremental policies [1][6] - The fiscal policy maintains a proactive stance, with a reduction in the emphasis on increasing the deficit ratio compared to last year, while highlighting the need to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure [1][6] - The expected fiscal budget deficit ratio for next year is projected to remain around 4%, with a slight increase in special bonds for local governments [1][6] - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with a potential interest rate cut of about 10 basis points expected in the first half of next year [1][6] Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting outlined the direction for building a strong domestic market, focusing on boosting consumer spending and increasing income [2][7] - Specific actions include implementing special initiatives to stimulate consumption and developing plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][7] - The goal is to stabilize fixed asset investment and reduce its drag on the economy, with an increase in central budget investment and the use of new policy financial tools to support investment growth [2][7] Industrial Development - There is a stronger emphasis on building innovative systems and mechanisms, with clear policy expectations for education, technology, and talent development [2][7] - The industrial policy is expected to follow the "14th Five-Year Plan" framework, focusing on traditional industries, emerging future industries, and AI technology integration [2][7] Reform Initiatives - The meeting highlighted four key areas for reform: unifying the market, stimulating the vitality of various business entities, tax system reform, and financial-related reforms [3][8] - Emphasis on addressing "involution" competition and optimizing the layout of state-owned enterprises while supporting private enterprises through relaxed access and resolving payment arrears [3][8] - Tax reforms will focus on improving the local tax system and potentially shifting consumption tax collection to local levels [3][8] Social Welfare - A comprehensive plan was proposed to address key social issues such as employment, education, healthcare, and social security [4][9] - New measures include encouraging flexible employment participation in insurance, increasing high school enrollment, and optimizing drug procurement and healthcare payment reforms [4][9] - The meeting also stressed the importance of stabilizing the birth rate and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [4][9]