2026年是"十五五"开局之年，不仅事关当下，更牵动未来五年发展走向。中国经济如何在新起点上落子 布局？全国两会即将召开，外界期待从中获取更多答案。 唱好"稳增长"重头戏 开局关乎全局，起步决定后势。回望"十四五"，中国经济巨轮在风高浪急中稳住航向，一个重要原因在 于始终保持政策定力。以"稳中求进"主基调为锚点，因应形势展开的宏观调控，护航中国经济总量五 年"四连跳"，2025年突破140万亿元人民币大关。 "十五五"时期外部环境更趋复杂，中国经济既要解决老问题，也要应对新挑战。主要国际机构普遍认 为，贸易紧张、地缘政治冲突加剧等因素或对全球经济活动形成更大掣肘。 在此背景下，官方如何设定今年GDP（国内生产总值）增速等发展预期目标、打出有力的政策"组合 拳"，人们期望从全国两会上捕捉更清晰信号。 "解锁"内需巨大潜力 如果说"稳增长"是中国宏观政策的主线，那么"解锁"超大国内市场蕴含的潜力，无疑是政策发力重心。 2021年至2024年，内需对中国经济增长平均贡献率达86.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率接近60%。去年 底召开的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，继续将扩内需列入年度重点任 ...

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is crucial for both current and future economic development in China [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" saw China maintain economic stability through consistent policy direction, achieving a GDP growth of over 140 trillion RMB by 2025 [2] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts posing challenges to global economic activities [2] Group 2 - Domestic demand is identified as a key focus for policy efforts, with an average contribution rate of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, and nearly 60% from final consumption expenditure [3] - The government is implementing various measures to stimulate consumption, including a new round of subsidies and initiatives to enhance service consumption and diversify consumption scenarios [3] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is being developed to address structural imbalances in supply and demand [3] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's focus on future industries highlights the importance of strategic planning in the face of global technological and industrial changes [4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote emerging sectors such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [4] - The role of private enterprises is emphasized, with increased policy support to stimulate innovation and development in future industries [4]

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-25 市场面：（7）收盘价：2026-02-24，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.45元、106.18元、108.50元、112.96元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.02%、0.07%、0.02%和 0.20%。（8）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为0.019 元、0.026元、0.011元和0.102元。 综合来看：受股市行情带动，政治局会议释放宽货币信号，同时全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定 性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 债市开门红，期债收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的 ...

Market Overview - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse (February 24) saw A-shares open positively, with the ChiNext index rising by up to 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.87% [1][14] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14] Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued to rise, with active performances in phosphate chemicals and fertilizers, leading to several stocks, including Hebang Biotechnology, hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The Chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.42%, attracting 222 million yuan in the previous five trading days [1][14] Precious Metals and Commodities - Following the Spring Festival, the domestic market entered a peak working season, with the "golden March and silver April" period expected to see increased industrial production and infrastructure projects [3][16] - Precious metals prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariff policy disputes and geopolitical tensions, with the Precious Metals ETF (159876) rising by 3.18% and attracting a net subscription of 6 million units [3][16] - The outlook for gold demand is optimistic, with expectations of surpassing 5,000 tons globally by 2025, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [7][19] Military and Aerospace Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with the Military ETF (512810) rising by 1.16% and experiencing a premium at closing [9][21] - The domestic aviation sector is expected to accelerate, with the C919 aircraft averaging nearly 50 flights per day during the Spring Festival, a 52.6% increase year-on-year [11][24] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to heighten the urgency of national defense construction in China [11][24] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI trends as the main market themes [4][17] - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and resource products, with technology centered on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products focus on precious metals and basic chemicals [4][17]

化工ETF国泰（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及化学原料、 化学制品等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国化工行业细分领域的发展状况。指数成分股 覆盖农药、化肥、涂料等多个子行业，旨在捕捉具有成长性和市场竞争力的企业表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，化工行业新增产能进入释放阶段，2026年供需逆转可期。供给端在行业供需调整中权重 加大，"反内卷"的提出提供了对后续行业盈利改善、长期走向更健康发展的预期。短期内可通过控制开 工方式调整供需平衡促进价格回暖、盈利修复；中长期则关注关停低效产能的落实节奏，促进企业技术 升级摆脱同质化竞争。在2026-2027年"反内卷"、"稳增长"等系列政策助推下，经济走出谷底、企业盈 利底部确认概率较高。供需格局重构与产业属性升级共同促使传统化工企业价值重估。 ...

Market Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, domestic focus is on stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, while overseas attention is on U.S. tariff changes and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2] - Silicon iron futures contract 2605 closed at 5492, down 0.90%, with a net capital inflow of 276 million yuan and an increase in positions by 12,966 contracts[2] - The average daily production of silicon iron decreased by 1.20% to 14,005 tons, with a weekly supply of 98,000 tons, down 1.21%[2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weekly supply-demand mismatch for silicon iron is expanding, with a monthly supply surplus rate expected to decrease[2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 28.35%, a decrease of 0.96% week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction[2] - Steel mill silicon iron inventory increased to 17.52 days, up 13.69% from the previous month, indicating a rise in inventory levels[2] Core Logic - The expectation of lower prices for raw materials like anthracite is weakening, with industry losses ranging from 100 to 600 yuan per ton[4] - The demand reduction is expected to have diminishing negative impacts, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery[4] - Policy support is anticipated to stabilize the market, with a focus on post-holiday inventory adjustments[4]

历经三轮完整的生肖循环之后，属马的A股又将迎来新的本命年。 回望前三个马年，A股从初生牛犊到野马狂奔。如今终于逐渐成长为求稳致远的良驹。第四个本命年 里，稳增长与防风险的政策平衡仍是A股"压舱石"的强力保障，"稳"字为先也是逾2亿股民最直观的市场 期待。 A股的三轮马年行情，恰是市场从野蛮生长到成熟规范的生动缩影。1990年首个马年，A股以"老八 股"起步，市场初创，奠定了资本市场的雏形；2002年的马年，A股开始告别早期的无序波动；2014年 的马年，曾走出过一轮波澜壮阔的牛市，但杠杆失控的教训也历历在目。 三轮马年，从无到有、从乱到治，A股在学习中成长，让市场各方深刻认识到，暴涨不可持续，稳健才 能长久。 站在2026年马年的新起点，A股体量已今非昔比。市场扩容至近5500家上市公司，总市值迈上百万亿元 台阶，投资者数量突破2亿，资本市场已成为服务实体经济、承载居民财富的核心载体。 追涨杀跌、题材炒作的投机逻辑逐渐退场，价值投资、长期持有成为主流共识，监管体系、交易规则、 投资者保护机制日趋完善。一系列的向好转变，都为A股的稳定提供了坚实的保障。 对于逾2亿股民来说，"稳"是最朴素的期待，也是最理性的选择 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

麻晓勤表示，2026年西安商务系统将继续打好提振消费、外贸拓展两场硬仗。她直言"邮件千遍不如见 上一面"，今年将开展"丝路优品·出海长安"行动，统筹省市多场境内外展会，覆盖全球多个国家和地 区、十余大领域，全力支持企业开拓国际市场。 据了解，2025年西安国资系统以服务城市发展为核心、深化改革为动力，推动国有经济实现质量、规模 与效益稳步提升。截至2025年12月底，全市国有企业资产总额38342.90亿元，同比增长9.5%；所有者权 益总额9692.40亿元，同比增长5.7%，总体规模创历史新高。 对于2026年国资工作，西安市国资委副主任李义长表示，将以提升核心竞争力和增强核心功能为重点纵 深推进改革。国企重组整合将秉持"三个聚焦"核心思路，通过多维度归类推动多领域战略性重组；考核 方面实施"一企一策"分类考核，下调公共服务类企业利润考核权重，提升社会效益、科技创新等指标占 比。此外，年内将盘活资产账面价值不低于20亿元，力争市属国企研发投入强度达到2%，全年新增就 业不低于3000人，持续彰显国企的责任与担当。 中新网西安2月12日电 (记者 党田野)记者12日从西安官方获悉，去年西安商务、投资合作、国 ...

Economic Growth - Various provinces are setting GDP growth targets around 5% annually for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with Guangdong and Jiangsu leading in high-quality development [1][2] - Shandong aims to become the first northern province with a GDP exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2025, while Guizhou and Chongqing also set ambitious growth targets [1][2] Income Increase - The focus on increasing residents' disposable income is evident, with Zhejiang targeting an average income of around 90,000 yuan and urbanization rates of 78% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - Provinces like Tianjin and Shaanxi are implementing plans to boost employment and expand the middle-income group, aiming for steady income growth [3] Cost Reduction - Provinces are emphasizing the reduction of financial burdens on citizens, with Hainan and Gansu focusing on investing resources in public welfare and improving social security systems [4][5] - Shanghai aims to enhance public services in education, healthcare, and housing to alleviate the financial pressures on residents [4] Consumption Promotion - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption, with initiatives to promote "emotional consumption" and "scenario-based consumption" across various provinces [5][6] - Tianjin and Guangxi are encouraging the development of new consumption trends, including services targeting the elderly and children, as well as enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods [5][6]