中新社北京10月10日电 中国A股10日调整，主要股指悉数下跌。板块方面，水泥建材板块当天逆势上 涨，实现"四连涨"，表现亮眼。 申万宏源证券分析师任杰表示，相较于往年的工作方案，上述工作方案首次将"盈利水平有效提升"作为 行业主要目标。预计"反内卷"、提盈利、稳增长将是今明两年建材行业的工作重心。水泥等建材产能或 将明显收缩，盈利有望改善，利好相关上市公司。 就当天A股主要指数的表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报3897点，跌幅为0.94%；深证成指报13355点， 跌幅为2.7%；创业板指报3113点，跌4.55%。沪深两市成交总额约25156亿元，较上一个交易日缩量约 1376亿元。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，水泥建材板块当天上涨2.76%，领涨A股所有板块。个股方面， 华新水泥、金隅集团当天股价收获涨停板(涨幅约10%)。 消息面上，中国工业和信息化部等部门近日印发的《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》提出目 标：2025—2026年，建材行业恢复向好，盈利水平有效提升，绿色建材、先进无机非金属材料产业规模 持续增长，2026年绿色建材营业收入超过3000亿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the gaming sector driven by strong performance, favorable policies, and AI integration, with the gaming sub-sector showing significant growth [21][23][24] - The basic chemical industry experienced slight revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, indicating a bottoming recovery trend [15][16] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a significant decline in new installation demand, while energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are set to increase, potentially constraining supply [17][18][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,933.97 with a gain of 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13,725.56 [3] - The A-share market showed mixed performance with sectors like aerospace and automotive leading gains, while gaming and consumer electronics lagged [12][13] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced slight declines, indicating a cautious global market sentiment [4] Industry Analysis - The basic chemical sector reported total revenue of 13,004.67 billion with a year-on-year growth of 4.70%, and net profit of 770.50 billion, reflecting a stable recovery [15][16] - The gaming industry saw a remarkable increase in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% and 75% respectively, showcasing strong market demand [23][24] - The photovoltaic sector's new installation capacity dropped by 55.29% year-on-year in August, highlighting a significant slowdown in growth [18][20] Policy and Economic Environment - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate economic growth, including measures to enhance consumption and support traditional industries [9][10] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a "weak recovery, low inflation" phase, with a focus on stabilizing growth and preventing risks [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment approach between growth and value styles, with a focus on sectors like TMT, pharmaceuticals, and securities [10][32] - In the basic chemical sector, it is recommended to focus on segments benefiting from supply-side improvements, such as pesticides and organic silicon [16] - For the gaming sector, attention is drawn to companies with strong product cycles and performance metrics, as well as those leveraging AI for efficiency [23][24]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国信证券指出，钢铁行业方面，随着四季度临近，为完成全年稳增长目标，企业推涨意愿持续，价格中 枢有望提升。政策层面，建材行业稳增长工作方案出台，将盈利水平有效提升作为主要目标之一，并强 化行业管理，促进优胜劣汰，预计后续反内卷执行力度有望强化。基建投资有望迎来复苏，政策重心重 新回归增量基建领域，资金层面新增政府债券将重点投向新建项目领域，对钢铁需求形成支撑。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢等业 务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数成分股主要为钢 铁制造企业，具有较强的周期性特征，行业配置以原材料为主，体现出钢铁行业与市场动态及经济周期 紧密相关的特点。 ...

专家分享：石化化工各行业稳增长工作方案解读 摘要 新方案强调石化行业年均工业增加值增长 5%以上，并关注科技创新、 精细化延伸、数字赋能、本质安全和减污降碳，旨在提升行业附加值和 竞争力。 政策严控新增炼油产能，合理规划对二甲苯产能，防范煤制甲醇过剩风 险，并严格执行炼油项目产能减量置换，推动老旧装置改造，以优化产 业结构。 石化化工行业数字化转型需制定实施指南，开展成熟度评估和技术改造， 推动人工智能与石化结合，加大节能减排改造力度，并建设数字化能碳 管理中心。 未来两年节能降碳重点包括老旧装置更新改造，加强绿电、绿氢与石油 及煤炭耦合相关标准预研，并推进重点产品碳足迹规则核算标准制定。 化工园区发展需进行竞争力评价和分级评价，加快对标改造，提升高质 量发展水平，提高行业集中度，并培育壮大先进制造集群和龙头企业。 金融监管部门通过完善产品预警机制和信贷政策，引导信贷资金支持产 业布局和产能调控，并鼓励转型金融支持传统产业绿色低碳转型。 政策对存量产能退出采取"改造为主，退出为辅"的策略，通过数字化、 绿色化改造提升效率和质量，并淘汰能耗、排放或安全不达标的企业。 Q&A 请介绍一下最新发布的石化化工行业稳增 ...

在昨天的推进会上，吴江区发展改革委、统计、工信、商务等部门分别就整体经济运行情况、GDP 指标支撑情况、工业领域和商贸领域经济运行情况作了汇报，各区镇进行交流。会议要求，要把握形势 要求，树牢奋战四季度的责任感紧迫感；要锚定目标任务，拿出奋战四季度的硬举措硬担当；要狠抓责 任落实，提高奋战四季度的执行力和落实力。 今年以来，吴江各地各部门加压奋进，全区上半年实现GDP增长6.1%，连续4个季度领跑全市。今 年1至8月，全区实现规上工业产值3797.12亿元，同比增长6.0%，列全市第二，比去年提升0.6个百分 点。8个区镇同比均实现正增长。1至8月，全区工业投资同比增长14%，高于苏州大市增速2.7个百分 点，总量列全市第二，增速列全市第三。今年以来，吴江4个乡镇工业投资增速保持在20%以上。 今年前3个季度，吴江亿元以上产业项目新签约241个、新开工208个、新投产178个，1至8月签约、 投产项目数都是全市第一，开工项目数是全市第二。4个省重大、57个市重点项目分别完成年度计划投 资的101.47%、112.34%，计划新开工项目全部开工；323个区重点项目完成年度计划的93.29%，计划新 开工项目开工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries aims to enhance quality supply capabilities and optimize the development environment, significantly impacting the stability of the industrial economy [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The ten key industries include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automotive, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing, collectively accounting for about 70% of the industrial output above a designated size [1]. - The new plans focus on both supply and demand sides, emphasizing coordinated efforts to stimulate industry growth and address structural challenges [1][3]. Group 2: Quantitative Goals - Specific growth targets have been set for various industries, such as a 5% annual increase in value-added for petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries by 2025-2026 [2]. - The automotive industry aims for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales projected at around 15.5 million, reflecting a 20% growth [2]. Group 3: Policy Focus - The current stabilization policies shift from "quantity growth" to a focus on "quality and efficiency," prioritizing structural optimization and long-term high-quality development [3]. - The plans emphasize expanding demand and optimizing supply, with specific initiatives in the power equipment sector to enhance international market participation and domestic consumption [4]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition in basic organic raw materials and insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, prompting support for key product development and innovation centers [5]. - The machinery sector is tasked with enhancing innovation capabilities and supply chain resilience, focusing on the development of smart equipment and quality brand building [5]. Group 5: Competition Regulation - A notable aspect of the new plans is the emphasis on strengthening industry governance and regulating competitive order, particularly in the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6][7]. - The steel industry will implement precise capacity and output controls, while the non-ferrous metals sector will focus on avoiding redundant low-level construction and promoting self-regulation [6][7].

连平、 刘涛、王运金（ 连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长 ） 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为 "四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分 别是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开 启本轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共 振前景难料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。 四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复 杂交织，有可能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和 挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以 来，部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。 1-8月固 定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月 环比逐月下降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当 前"十四五"规划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规 模启 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to achieve high-quality development while maintaining reasonable growth, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [2][3] Industry Growth and Structure - The plan requires an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value-added from 2025 to 2026, while pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [2][3] - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing supply-side dynamics [3] Capacity Control and Market Dynamics - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [3] - Future supply of refining and ethylene will be significantly limited, potentially optimizing the competitive landscape of the industry [3] Chemical Products and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key investment directions in the chemical sector, including potassium fertilizers, pesticides, refrigerants, and fluorinated liquids, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and resource scarcity [5][6] - The global potassium fertilizer industry is characterized by high concentration and tight supply-demand balance, with companies like "Yara International" expected to maintain high prices [6] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see price recovery due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [6] Emerging Trends and Policy Support - The plan supports the development of new chemical materials, such as electronic chemicals and high-performance fibers, to meet the needs of emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [3] - The fertilizer industry is encouraged to strengthen raw material supply and stabilize production, ensuring a reliable supply during critical agricultural periods [4] Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported a decline of 8.4% from the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [5] - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, but demand remains weak, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].