铁矿石早报(2026 年 03 月 11 日) | | 主力合约 | i2605 收盘价：784.0 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面 | 港口库存高企、落地利润转负与终端需求疲软形成压 | | | | | | 制，钢材去库压力正向上游传导；偏空 | | | | | 基差 | 日照港 PB 粉现货折合盘面价 814 元/吨，基差 30；日 | | | | 铁 | | 照港巴混现货折合盘面价 823，基差 39；偏多 | | | | 矿 | 库存 | 港口库存 17891.3 万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 | | | | 石 | 盘面 | 价格在 20 日线上方，20 日线趋势向上；偏多 | | | | | 主力 持仓 | 主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 | | | | | | 两会释放的稳增长信号及财政货币宽松政策，为市场注 | 从业资格证号: | F03105325 | | | 预期 | | | | | | | 入强预期，支撑矿价短期偏强运行, 震荡偏强 | | | 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1091号 完稿时间:2026年03月11日 | ...

Report Basic Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Morning Report (March 9, 2026) [1] - Completion Time: March 9, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu, with qualification number F03105325 and investment consulting number Z0021337 [2] - Research Assistant: Huang Ruoyu, with qualification number F03145541 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The high port inventory, negative landing profit, and weak terminal demand form a constraint, and the pressure of steel de - stocking is being transmitted upstream; the market is bearish in terms of fundamentals. However, the signals of stable growth and loose fiscal and monetary policies released during the Two Sessions inject strong expectations into the market, supporting the short - term strong operation of the ore price, with a volatile and upward trend [1] Summary by Directory Spot and Basis - The closing price of the main contract i2605 is 772.0. The spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder converted to the disk price is 805 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33; the spot price of Rizhao Port Brazilian mixed ore converted to the disk price is 815, with a basis of 43, showing a bullish situation [1] Supply and Inventory - The port inventory is 17,891.3 tons, increasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, which is bearish [1] Demand and Downstream - The weak terminal demand forms a constraint, and the pressure of steel de - stocking is being transmitted upstream [1]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic policy aims for a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the year, with a focus on stabilizing growth and enhancing technology and industry[4] - The issuance of special bonds has slowed down, but construction activity has seen a slight increase, indicating a mixed response in the investment sector[4] Consumption and Production - Post-holiday consumption has been generally flat, with seasonal declines in both goods and services consumption observed[4] - Production recovery is mild, with overall performance remaining weak compared to previous years[9] Price Trends - CPI has shown a marginal decline, while PPI has surged significantly due to geopolitical influences, particularly in energy and chemical products[10] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 17.5% and 19.0% respectively, leading to substantial price hikes in downstream products[10] Market Dynamics - The real estate market has seen a decline in sales, with new and second-hand home transactions dropping, while land market activity has shown signs of recovery[9] - The construction sector's operational indicators have seasonally rebounded, although absolute values remain low compared to historical data[9] International Trade - Strong overseas demand is noted, with South Korea's exports growing by 29% year-on-year, while Vietnam's exports have significantly declined from 34% to 6%[9] - International shipping rates have risen sharply due to geopolitical tensions, impacting domestic freight rates[9] Financial Market - After the month-end, funding rates have decreased, with the central bank net withdrawing 12,474 billion yuan in funds[10] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.6 basis points to 1.78%, while the one-year yield fell by 3.1 basis points to 1.29%[10] Risk Factors - Uncertainties in geopolitical situations and domestic demand recovery not meeting expectations pose significant risks to the economic outlook[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of stable growth driven by the Two Sessions, with a focus on "anti-involution" measures [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 3,023, with a weekly change of -3.5% and a year-to-date change of 13.6% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,170 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of -4.5% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 101 USD/ton, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 6.6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,402,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.3% and a year-to-date increase of 60.8% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 549,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 31.9% and a year-to-date increase of 42.4% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 17,123,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 240,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with a focus on maintaining production efficiency [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a coordinated macro policy framework focusing on stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, and preventing risks, which aligns with the government's work report and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][30]. - The report highlights that the fiscal policy will see unprecedented levels of spending, with total expenditures exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bonds reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and transfers to local governments at 10.42 trillion yuan, aimed at stimulating domestic demand [12][17]. - The monetary policy will maintain an appropriately loose stance, with a focus on lowering financing costs and ensuring liquidity, as evidenced by the average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans being at historical lows of 3.2% and 3.1% respectively [21][22]. Group 2 - The report outlines the importance of structural adjustments, with a dual focus on nurturing emerging industries and upgrading traditional sectors, aiming for significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits, aerospace, and artificial intelligence, with projected outputs exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [13][23]. - It emphasizes the establishment of a national-level merger fund to support the development of new industries and facilitate the exit of venture capital, thereby addressing competitive pressures within industries [23][25]. - The capital market is set to enhance its role in supporting the real economy while also focusing on risk prevention, with measures to improve market stability and investor protection, including stricter regulations against financial misconduct [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints - This year's growth - stabilization target is practical, the government pays more attention to development quality, is stepping up efforts to adjust the economic structure, and the weight of risk - prevention goals has decreased. The incremental statements are favorable for the bond market, and the policy tone has a neutral impact on the bond market [4][8][19] Summary by Directory 1. Growth - Stabilization Target is Practical, Policy Maintains Resilience - The GDP target growth rate is adjusted from 5.0% last year to 4.5% - 5.0%. Achieving the GDP growth target is not difficult, and the government does not overly pursue economic growth speed. The "Government Work Report" emphasizes striving for better results in actual work [1][7][9] - Fiscal policy: The deficit rate is 4%, the ultra - long - term special treasury bond quota is 1.3 trillion yuan, and the new special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan, all of which are the same as last year. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan compared with last year. The fiscal policy maintains resilience [11] - Monetary policy: It remains "moderately loose" with relatively few incremental statements. There is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but certain conditions need to be met. Monetary policy focuses on precise efforts [13] - To expand domestic demand, a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund for promoting domestic demand is established, and 800 - billion - yuan of new policy - based financial instruments are issued [13] 2. The Government Focuses on Development Quality and Strengthens Structural Adjustment - In terms of consumption, the government emphasizes improving the salary and social security systems to increase residents' disposable income. In terms of investment, it aims to enhance the growth momentum of market - led effective investment and increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihood [15] - The government continues to emphasize the unified market and anti - involution policies, aiming to promote high - quality development of enterprises through fair competition and optimize the economic structure [15] - In terms of science and technology and industry, the government focuses on making efficient use of the national venture capital guidance fund, promoting the in - depth integration of technological and industrial innovation, and promoting the application of "Artificial Intelligence +" [16] - The ranking of rural revitalization and people's livelihood protection work has risen. There are new statements in rural revitalization and people's livelihood protection, and fiscal policy pays more attention to investing in people and protecting people's livelihood [16] 3. The Weight of Risk - Prevention Goals has Decreased - The ranking of risk - prevention work has dropped, and the quota of special treasury bonds for capital injection has decreased by 200 billion yuan compared with last year [3][17] - In the real estate sector, it emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with new statements on housing provident fund system reform and the role of the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" white - list system [17][18] - For local government debt risks, it continues to emphasize curbing growth and resolving existing debts, and optimizing debt monitoring and assessment indicators [18] - For financial risks, the main new statement is to strengthen financial risk monitoring, early warning, and early correction [18] 4. Incremental Statements are Favorable for the Bond Market, and the Overall Statement is Neutral - The incremental statements in the "Government Work Report" are favorable for the bond market. The supply pressure of government bonds is slightly lower than market expectations. However, the policy tone has a neutral impact on the bond market as the room for monetary policy is limited [19] - In the short - term, the market focuses on whether monetary policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts will be implemented. If the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts is not met, the bond market may experience a short - term adjustment, but overall, the bond market is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating pattern [22][23] - Strategies include: unilateral strategy (if the reserve requirement ratio cut is not implemented, the bond market may adjust briefly, but there are few negative factors unless inflation significantly exceeds expectations); short - hedging strategy (pay close attention to the war situation and inflation level, and consider short - hedging if inflation exceeds expectations); curve strategy (the decline in supply pressure is more favorable for TL, but TL still faces greater pressure in the long run); cash - and - carry strategy (consider cash - and - carry opportunities for the T06 contract) [25] 5. Summary and Outlook - This year's growth - stabilization target is practical, the government is more concerned about development quality, is strengthening economic structural adjustment, and the weight of risk - prevention goals has decreased. The incremental statements are favorable for the bond market, and the policy tone has a neutral impact on the bond market [4][26]

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, transitioning from a single target of 5.0% in 2025, allowing for policy flexibility amid external uncertainties[3] - Historical examples show that range targets can yield effective results, such as achieving 6.7% in 2016 and 6.1% in 2019 against set ranges[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains proactive, with a deficit rate around 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 230 billion yuan from the previous year, aligning with the GDP growth target[4] - Special bonds issuance remains at 1.3 trillion yuan, focusing on high-efficiency investment projects[4] - New special bond scale is 4.4 trillion yuan, with a shift in focus from land reserve to major project construction and debt replacement[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintains a moderately loose stance, emphasizing efficiency and low financing costs, with potential adjustments based on economic fundamentals[5] - Structural monetary policy tools are favored, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in several rates to enhance credit support in key areas[5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Strengthening domestic demand is crucial for achieving the growth target, with a focus on repairing internal demand weaknesses observed in 2025[6] - A new 100 billion yuan fund is established to stimulate consumption and investment through various financial support mechanisms[6] - Consumption enhancement initiatives include a 250 billion yuan allocation for consumer subsidies, slightly lower than the previous year's 300 billion yuan[6] Investment Efficiency - Investment policies are shifting towards enhancing efficiency, with 800 billion yuan allocated for major engineering projects in 2026[7] - Central government investment is set at 755 billion yuan to stabilize infrastructure and public service investments[7] - New policy financial tools will issue 800 billion yuan, increasing from 500 billion yuan in 2025, to leverage social capital for investment[7] Structural Upgrades - The report emphasizes upgrading traditional industries, promoting high-quality service sector development, and advancing the smart economy[8] - The focus on traditional manufacturing, which still accounts for over 60% of total manufacturing revenue, highlights its importance for employment and price recovery[8] Risk Management - The approach to risk management is shifting from passive response to proactive prevention, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations[10] - Measures include reforms to housing fund systems to release housing demand and enhance the quality of housing construction[10] Social Welfare - The prioritization of social welfare in government tasks has increased, aiming to improve residents' income expectations and expand the economic growth demand base[9] - Long-term strategies include optimizing income distribution and enhancing public service provisions to stabilize and elevate consumption rates[9]

Group 1 - The government work report emphasizes a policy framework of "stabilizing growth + structural transformation," focusing on quality and structural optimization rather than large-scale stimulus for short-term expansion. The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, aligning with China's medium to long-term potential growth rate [3][12][14] - Fiscal policy remains a key tool for macroeconomic regulation, with a fiscal deficit target of approximately 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of about 230 billion yuan from the previous year. General public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan, marking a 1.27 trillion yuan increase [3][12][14] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation as a driver for high-quality development, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in key core technologies and enhancing national strategic scientific capabilities [3][16] Group 2 - Consumption policy is shifting from scale stimulation to structural optimization, with a special bond of 250 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025. This indicates a transition towards a more comprehensive consumption promotion system [3][18] - The report outlines a focus on risk prevention and the establishment of long-term mechanisms, particularly in real estate and local government debt management, moving from short-term risk resolution to long-term governance capability building [3][5][18] - Investment recommendations suggest that technology growth remains a key supported direction, with structural opportunities continuing. Sectors like artificial intelligence and aerospace are expected to benefit from policy support and technological breakthroughs [3][8][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, the Politburo meeting's signal of loose monetary policy, unchanged LPR, continued expectations of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [10]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [11]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51 and a growth rate of 0.52%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.9164, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026 and a growth rate of 0.38%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.23%. DR007 is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 0.96%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.96% [12]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change situation of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures [14][15][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local bonds [25][26][24]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][32][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [41][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [45][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain a "steady progress" trend supported by global monetary order restructuring, AI application promotion, and domestic growth stabilization and reform, making it a favorable period for investment allocation [1] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - "Price increase" commodities are supported by demand and performance certainty, with notable price increases in energy and non-ferrous metals, including a 8% rise in thermal coal, 3% in WTI crude oil, and 18% in lithium carbonate [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have driven up oil and metal prices, while OPEC+ announced an oil production increase plan for April to counteract upward price pressures [2] 2) Industrial Products - Global AI-related manufacturing investment is in an expansion phase, with strong domestic and international demand for construction machinery, evidenced by a 61% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales [3] - The domestic power battery installation volume was 42.0 GWh in January, showing a 57.2% month-on-month decline but an 8.4% year-on-year increase [3] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic consumption is showing signs of improvement, with January sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners increasing by 0.6%, decreasing by 2.4%, and increasing by 12.7% respectively [4] - The average purchase price of live pigs remained stable at 14 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival, with a projected national pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, an increase of 2.24 million heads from the previous year [4] 4) Technology - AI applications are continuously iterating, with significant increases in usage, as evidenced by a weekly usage of 4.12 trillion tokens for Chinese AI models, surpassing the U.S. [5] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 37% year-on-year in January, and China's sales growing by 34% [5] 5) Financials - The A-share market is supported by a "steady progress" trend, with an average daily trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan in February and a margin balance of 2.7 trillion yuan at the end of the month [6] - The insurance industry is projected to see a 7% year-on-year increase in premium income by 2025 [6] 6) Real Estate - Policy measures are promoting inventory reduction, with a 11% year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in February [6] - The housing price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year respectively in January 2026 [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from AI technology, such as cloud computing infrastructure, optical communication, energy storage, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical opportunities in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery [6][7] - Emphasize long-term investment in high-dividend leading companies in sectors like white goods, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities [6][7]