Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q2 2025, with domestic demand contributing significantly to this growth[8] - The unemployment rate in the US is currently at 4.2%, indicating a state of full employment[19] - The US fiscal deficit is projected to increase by approximately $1.76 trillion over the next five years due to recent fiscal policies[27] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50% as of May 2025, with a potential for rate cuts in September and December 2025[64][65] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from $9 trillion to $6.7 trillion, reflecting a reduction in monetary stimulus[67] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US was reported at 2.3% in April 2025, showing a slight decline from previous months[61] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8% in April 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite recent policy measures[61] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Policies - The US has implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising rates to 50%, which may impact inflation and trade balances[46] - The average tariff rate on imports from China is currently around 16.80%, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[45] Group 5: Market Trends and Asset Performance - The stock market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation due to weak catalysts and stable economic fundamentals[7] - Bond yields are projected to decline slightly if the central bank resumes purchasing government bonds[7]

Core Views - The market is expected to remain in a "top and bottom" scenario, with attention on the upcoming Lujiazui Forum and FOMC meeting for further guidance [2][3] - The recent trading volume of micro-cap stocks is approaching levels seen in November 2023, indicating a crowded market, but the odds of participating in small-cap trends are currently low [2][5] - With the current trading volume not significantly increasing, the speed of sector rotation may remain rapid, with themes like innovative drugs and new consumption already fully played out [2][4] Market Dynamics - The short-term market lacks clear upward momentum, with increased divergence near key levels, but strong support exists at the market bottom [3] - Structural pressures on the macro economy persist, with manufacturing and domestic demand needing improvement, with potential for trend improvement in the second half of the year [3] - The financing balance remains stable at around 1.8 trillion, indicating a baseline scenario of stock game [3] Sector Rotation Opportunities - Recent adjustments in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors suggest a need for investors to reassess their positions [4] - The current internal rotation within innovative drugs and new consumption is relatively sufficient, with a decline in cost-effectiveness [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume has dropped to a low since 2023, presenting potential excess return opportunities in low-positioned technology sectors with industrial catalysts [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "odds thinking" in investment strategy, suggesting a focus on relatively low-crowded technology sectors such as AI computing chips, storage chips, optical fibers, and smart driving [6] - Mid-term focus should be on core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance, especially considering the potential for RMB appreciation due to "de-dollarization" [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance with most indices closing higher. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. Various policy measures are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote stable economic development, and gradually increase stock market valuations. The overall view is that the stock index will be in a volatile state [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed different trends, with some contracts rising and others falling. The central bank's operations affected the bond market, and after macro - disturbances, the bond market followed changes in the capital market and economic fundamentals. The bond market is expected to remain in a sideways volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On June 5, 2025, most A-share market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A index rose 0.42% with a trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.72%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. April economic data showed a slight decline compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, supported by the "trade - in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with a cumulative new RMB loan of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 growth of 8% year - on - year. The Sino - US joint statement and domestic policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On June 5, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.16%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The central bank conducted 1265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1395 billion yuan. The capital market was generally loose. The central bank's upcoming 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a slight decline in Treasury bond yields. After adjustments, the bond market is in a sideways volatile pattern [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 5, 2025, compared with June 4, IH rose 0.01%, IF rose 0.25%, IC rose 0.61%, and IM rose 0.79% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.72% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03%, TF remained unchanged, T fell 0.04%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.45bp, - 0.46bp, 0.59bp, and 0.7bp respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - The central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, it will conduct a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term using a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning method [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts display the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][22][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures are rated as "volatile" [1] - Treasury bond futures are rated as "volatile" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a general upward trend on June 3, 2025, with the Wind All A index rising 0.52% and a trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan. The consumer and banking sectors were strong, while the real estate upstream and downstream sectors were weak. The economic data in April showed a certain decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the M2 growth rate at 8% year-on-year. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policies, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations [1] - On June 3, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively. After the cross - month period, the capital market became looser, and the DR007 decreased by 12BP to 1.55%. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - following market and will show a sideways volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, IH rose from 2,667.2 to 2,668.6 (0.05%), IF from 3,822.4 to 3,824.8 (0.06%), IC from 5,627.8 to 5,638.4 (0.19%), and IM from 5,966.0 to 5,998.0 (0.54%) [4] - **Stock indexes**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose from 2,678.7 to 2,687.3 (0.32%), the CSI 300 from 3,840.2 to 3,852.0 (0.31%), the CSI 500 from 5,671.1 to 5,694.8 (0.42%), and the CSI 1000 from 6,026.6 to 6,070.0 (0.72%) [4] - **Treasury bond futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, TS fell from 102.40 to 102.35 (-0.04%), TF from 106.02 to 105.96 (-0.06%), T from 108.73 to 108.69 (-0.04%), and TL rose from 119.41 to 119.45 (0.03%) [4] 3.2 Market News - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down from the previous value of 50.4 [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: The report provides the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends from January 2024 to January 2025 [7][8][11] - **Treasury bond futures**: The report provides the trend charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18] - **Exchange rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][26]

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral, with an expectation of a volatile trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: On May 28, most A - share market indices pulled back. In April, economic data showed a decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social credit demand was weak. Recently, multiple departments announced policies to support the capital market, and internal policy efforts are the main theme for the stock index in 2025. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing stock market valuations [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with slight declines across various tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short - term, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate according to the capital situation and economic fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 28, the Wind All - A index dropped 0.2% with a trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The consumer sector was relatively strong, while the basic chemicals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were weak. In April, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The cumulative new RMB loans in April were 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and the year - on - year growth of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for future trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and regulatory authorities introduced measures to support the capital market. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the bottom - building stage [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: On May 28, the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined, and the 10 - year main contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 585 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets showed different trends. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear trend [2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of - 0.12%, - 0.11%, - 0.18%, and - 0.27% respectively [3] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined on May 28 compared with May 27, with declines of - 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 0.26%, and - 0.40% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the TS, TF, and TL contracts declined, and the T contract was basically stable [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased [3] 3.3 Market News - From January to April, the total operating revenue of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit was 1349.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond spot bonds [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

Research Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and trading volume reaching 1.12 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.09%, while the SSE 50 index fell 0.43% and the SSE 300 index fell 0.31%. The economic data in April declined slightly compared to March but remained resilient. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth of M2 at 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authority emphasized promoting long-term funds to enter the market. The CSRC plans to optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the bottoming stage. These measures are beneficial for enterprises to repair their balance sheets and promote the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.2 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 rates decreased by 9bp and 4bp to 1.54% and 1.60% respectively. The bond market was previously supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and a weakening pricing fundamentals due to tariffs. However, the situation has changed. On May 7th, a series of incremental measures were introduced, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, fulfilling the market's expectations. On May 12th, China and the US announced a significant reduction in mutual tariffs, which led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite and was negative for the bond market. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen again [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH decreased by 0.24%, IF decreased by 0.07%, IC increased by 0.38%, and IM increased by 0.70%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.43%, the SSE 300 decreased by 0.31%, the CSI 500 increased by 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.45%. For treasury bond futures, TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.26%, T rose 0.32%, and TL rose 0.34% [3]. Market News - In April, the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The cumulative year-on-year growth of manufacturing investment was 8.8%, the cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate development investment was 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate sales area was 2.8%, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, the construction area decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the completion area decreased by 16.8% year-on-year [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [6][7][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. A series of policies are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The bond market is expected to run bearishly as two major positive factors have disappeared. The yield curve is expected to steepen again, and attention should be paid to steepening the yield curve [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 14, the A-share market rose slightly, with the Wind All A up 0.68% and a trading volume of 1.35 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.15%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.3%, the SSE 50 index rose 1.69%, and the SSE 300 index rose 1.21%. In April, social credit demand was strong, with cumulative new RMB loans of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year-on-year growth of 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote long - term funds to enter the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased by about 4% year - on - year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.13%, and 0.09% respectively. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1035 billion yuan. The bond market's previous positive factors have changed. The implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts and the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US have led to a bearish outlook for the bond market [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 14, compared with May 13, IH rose 1.84%, IF rose 1.46%, IC rose 0.76%, and IM rose 0.77% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the SSE 50 rose 1.69%, the SSE 300 rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.15% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, compared with May 13, TS fell 0.09%, TF fell 0.14%, T fell 0.17%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds all increased [3]. Market News - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, China adjusted the tariff increase measures on imported goods from the US, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10% and suspending the 24% tariff increase for 90 days, and stopping the implementation of some previous tariff - increase measures [4]. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to support high - level scientific and technological self - reliance [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The content provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The content provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The content provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]