1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures are rated as "volatile" [1] - Treasury bond futures are rated as "volatile" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a general upward trend on June 3, 2025, with the Wind All A index rising 0.52% and a trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan. The consumer and banking sectors were strong, while the real estate upstream and downstream sectors were weak. The economic data in April showed a certain decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the M2 growth rate at 8% year-on-year. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policies, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations [1] - On June 3, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively. After the cross - month period, the capital market became looser, and the DR007 decreased by 12BP to 1.55%. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - following market and will show a sideways volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, IH rose from 2,667.2 to 2,668.6 (0.05%), IF from 3,822.4 to 3,824.8 (0.06%), IC from 5,627.8 to 5,638.4 (0.19%), and IM from 5,966.0 to 5,998.0 (0.54%) [4] - **Stock indexes**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose from 2,678.7 to 2,687.3 (0.32%), the CSI 300 from 3,840.2 to 3,852.0 (0.31%), the CSI 500 from 5,671.1 to 5,694.8 (0.42%), and the CSI 1000 from 6,026.6 to 6,070.0 (0.72%) [4] - **Treasury bond futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, TS fell from 102.40 to 102.35 (-0.04%), TF from 106.02 to 105.96 (-0.06%), T from 108.73 to 108.69 (-0.04%), and TL rose from 119.41 to 119.45 (0.03%) [4] 3.2 Market News - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down from the previous value of 50.4 [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: The report provides the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends from January 2024 to January 2025 [7][8][11] - **Treasury bond futures**: The report provides the trend charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18] - **Exchange rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][26]

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral, with an expectation of a volatile trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: On May 28, most A - share market indices pulled back. In April, economic data showed a decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social credit demand was weak. Recently, multiple departments announced policies to support the capital market, and internal policy efforts are the main theme for the stock index in 2025. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing stock market valuations [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with slight declines across various tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short - term, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate according to the capital situation and economic fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 28, the Wind All - A index dropped 0.2% with a trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The consumer sector was relatively strong, while the basic chemicals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were weak. In April, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The cumulative new RMB loans in April were 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and the year - on - year growth of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for future trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and regulatory authorities introduced measures to support the capital market. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the bottom - building stage [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: On May 28, the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined, and the 10 - year main contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 585 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets showed different trends. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear trend [2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of - 0.12%, - 0.11%, - 0.18%, and - 0.27% respectively [3] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined on May 28 compared with May 27, with declines of - 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 0.26%, and - 0.40% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the TS, TF, and TL contracts declined, and the T contract was basically stable [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased [3] 3.3 Market News - From January to April, the total operating revenue of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit was 1349.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond spot bonds [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

Research Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and trading volume reaching 1.12 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.09%, while the SSE 50 index fell 0.43% and the SSE 300 index fell 0.31%. The economic data in April declined slightly compared to March but remained resilient. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth of M2 at 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authority emphasized promoting long-term funds to enter the market. The CSRC plans to optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the bottoming stage. These measures are beneficial for enterprises to repair their balance sheets and promote the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.2 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 rates decreased by 9bp and 4bp to 1.54% and 1.60% respectively. The bond market was previously supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and a weakening pricing fundamentals due to tariffs. However, the situation has changed. On May 7th, a series of incremental measures were introduced, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, fulfilling the market's expectations. On May 12th, China and the US announced a significant reduction in mutual tariffs, which led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite and was negative for the bond market. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen again [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH decreased by 0.24%, IF decreased by 0.07%, IC increased by 0.38%, and IM increased by 0.70%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.43%, the SSE 300 decreased by 0.31%, the CSI 500 increased by 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.45%. For treasury bond futures, TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.26%, T rose 0.32%, and TL rose 0.34% [3]. Market News - In April, the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The cumulative year-on-year growth of manufacturing investment was 8.8%, the cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate development investment was 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate sales area was 2.8%, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, the construction area decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the completion area decreased by 16.8% year-on-year [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [6][7][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. A series of policies are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The bond market is expected to run bearishly as two major positive factors have disappeared. The yield curve is expected to steepen again, and attention should be paid to steepening the yield curve [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 14, the A-share market rose slightly, with the Wind All A up 0.68% and a trading volume of 1.35 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.15%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.3%, the SSE 50 index rose 1.69%, and the SSE 300 index rose 1.21%. In April, social credit demand was strong, with cumulative new RMB loans of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year-on-year growth of 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote long - term funds to enter the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased by about 4% year - on - year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.13%, and 0.09% respectively. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1035 billion yuan. The bond market's previous positive factors have changed. The implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts and the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US have led to a bearish outlook for the bond market [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 14, compared with May 13, IH rose 1.84%, IF rose 1.46%, IC rose 0.76%, and IM rose 0.77% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the SSE 50 rose 1.69%, the SSE 300 rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.15% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, compared with May 13, TS fell 0.09%, TF fell 0.14%, T fell 0.17%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds all increased [3]. Market News - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, China adjusted the tariff increase measures on imported goods from the US, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10% and suspending the 24% tariff increase for 90 days, and stopping the implementation of some previous tariff - increase measures [4]. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to support high - level scientific and technological self - reliance [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The content provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The content provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The content provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining by 0.42% and 1.12% respectively, while the overall market shows more stocks falling than rising [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3389.75, down by 14.19 points or 0.42% [2]. - The Shenzhen Component Index stands at 10238.63, decreasing by 115.59 points or 1.12% [2]. - The ChiNext Index has dropped by 28.08 points or 1.35%, reaching 2055.06 [2]. - Overall, more than 3600 stocks in the market have declined, indicating a bearish sentiment [1]. Sector Analysis - The port and shipping sector continues to show strength, while sectors such as beauty care, pet economy, synthetic biology, corn, and dairy are among the top gainers [1]. - Conversely, sectors related to Huawei's technologies and digital currencies are experiencing declines [1]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, characterized by ample liquidity and active fund operations, indicate limited adjustment space for the indices [4]. - There is a recommendation to focus on technology and undervalued sectors for strategic trading, emphasizing the importance of not chasing high prices blindly [4]. - The potential for economic growth exceeding expectations is highlighted, with the market likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [4]. - Attention is drawn to the upcoming half-year report disclosures as a potential catalyst for market movements, with a focus on industries expected to show profit growth [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures and government bond futures are both "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, the joint statement between China and the US, along with domestic policy measures such as the establishment of new financial asset investment companies, support for Huijin to increase holdings of stock index funds, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increase stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock market in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing [1] - For government bonds, the bond market has been supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and the weakening of the pricing fundamentals caused by tariffs. However, with the implementation of a series of incremental measures on May 7 and the joint statement between China and the US on May 12 to significantly reduce mutual tariffs, the two major positive factors have disappeared, and the bond market is expected to run in a bearish direction. The yield curve is expected to steepen again [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The joint statement between China and the US provides a good start for further trade negotiations. Domestic policies are the main driving force for the stock market in 2025. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] - **Government Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to be bearish due to the implementation of monetary policy measures and the reduction of tariffs. The yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 13, 2025, compared with May 12, IH rose 0.06%, IF fell 0.05%, IC fell 0.59%, and IM fell 0.67%. Among the stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.20%, the CSI 300 rose 0.15%, the CSI 500 fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.27% [3] - **Government Bond Futures**: On May 13, 2025, the 30-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03% [1] 3. Market News - On May 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson responded to questions about Sino-US economic and trade talks and the issue of special tariffs on fentanyl, stating that the responsibility for the fentanyl issue lies with the US, and the US's imposition of tariffs has damaged Sino-US cooperation and Chinese interests [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of various stock index futures [6][7][8] - **Government Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of government bond futures main contracts, the yield charts of government bond cash bonds, the basis charts, the inter - period spread charts, the inter - variety spread charts, and the capital interest rate charts [13][14][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][22]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market indices opened significantly higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.38% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.15% [1] - Consumer sector showed strong performance, with the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rising 1.66% [1] - A recent government announcement introduced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and economy, focusing on both total and structural policies [1] Policy Impact - Total policies aim to activate capital markets, reduce financing costs, and release real estate demand [1] - Structural policies focus on upgrading the technology industry, promoting consumption, boosting the stock market, stabilizing the real estate market, and supporting troubled enterprises [1] - Positive statements regarding quasi-stabilization funds are expected to solidify the lower end of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing risk appetite for Greater China assets [1] Investment Opportunities - Huatai Securities suggests that Hong Kong stocks may still offer relative returns, particularly in the import substitution sector [1] - Key points include: 1. Low market capitalization in export chains and midstream manufacturing sectors that are sensitive to tariffs [1] 2. Improved policy environment likely to boost risk appetite [1] 3. Attractive valuations in Hong Kong tech and consumer sectors supported by policies [1] 4. Weakening hard data from the US economy may increase global capital reallocation demand [1] Notable Investment Targets - Core broad-based Hong Kong stock: Hang Seng ETF (159920) [2] - AI and platform economy: Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) [2] - Core assets in Hong Kong consumption: Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) [2] - Global pharmaceutical industry representation: Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) [2] - Chinese AI technology concept companies: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) [2]