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“杠铃策略”配置思路生变基金经理积极更新投资框架
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-28 15:12
Core Viewpoint - The investment framework is being actively updated by fund managers in response to market changes, with a focus on balancing dividend assets and growth sectors as market dynamics evolve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The growth style, particularly in technology, has become mainstream in the market, overshadowing dividend assets that have performed well since 2022 [1]. - As of September 24, nearly all actively managed equity and mixed funds have positive net value growth rates over the past year, averaging over 50%, while dividend-related funds have an average return of 19.31% [2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers acknowledge that while the short-term advantages of dividend assets may have weakened, their long-term value remains significant [2]. - The demand for dividend assets is expected to persist due to increasing dividend payout ratios as companies move past capital expenditure peaks, supported by ample liquidity [3]. Group 3: Strategy Adjustments - The "barbell strategy" combining dividend and small-cap stocks is facing challenges, prompting a shift towards a "dividend+" era where performance differentiation among dividend assets is anticipated [4]. - Fund managers suggest that in the early stages of economic recovery, small-cap stocks may benefit from higher earnings elasticity, while dividend stocks provide defensive characteristics, indicating a need for flexible adjustments based on market conditions [4][5].
精准成立,却跑输大盘!两大因素无缘“翻倍基”
证券时报· 2025-09-28 07:26
去年9月24日以来,A股大幅上涨。"9·24"前夕精准成立的基金亦收获不俗。 不过,前述低位成立的基金中,并未诞生年内频现的"翻倍基",甚至平均涨幅落后于同期沪深股指。从布局情况来看,这些产品多数重仓了表现一般的红利板块, 且因成立于清淡市场,未能及时满仓从而错过随即而来的迅猛行情。 近50只主动权益基金"精准成立" 近一年来,A股投资逻辑正悄然生变,以创新药和人工智能为主力的数个板块轮番上演异动行情,多只基金借行情东风净值表现优异。 若将时间推至去年"9·24"前两个月,彼时沪指尚在3000点以下徘徊,权益产品新基金发行也陷入冰点——2024年7月和8月股票型基金成立份额均为50多亿份,而 这一数值在今年同期分别为355亿份和472亿份,行情的清淡无疑对新基发行影响深远。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 基金成立日 | 5779 家回报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | | 020755.OF | 永赢融安A | 2024/8/23 | 89.09 | | 021981.OF | 安联中国精选A | 2024/9/3 | 74.96 | | 020966.O ...
长假临近,持股还是持币?券商策略来了
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-27 14:48
Core Viewpoint - Despite differing short-term market outlooks among institutions, there is a consensus on "controlling positions and maintaining a good investment mindset" as the market shifts towards performance verification trading logic with gradual valuation recovery [1][4]. Position Control - Analysts suggest focusing on position control to manage market exposure effectively, allowing investors to stay attentive to market changes while maintaining a stable investment mindset [4][6]. - Active investors are advised to hold stocks during the holiday to capture potential risk premiums, while conservative investors should focus on high-dividend or domestic consumption sectors, which are expected to have lower volatility [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The market is currently experiencing high trading activity, with financing transactions at levels not seen since 2018, indicating a resurgence in investor participation [3]. - Analysts predict that if no major risk events occur during the holiday, funds may flow back into the stock market post-holiday, despite existing uncertainties in the overseas environment [3][4]. Investment Strategies - The "long-term base + short-term elasticity" investment model is gaining attention, aiming to balance stable long-term returns with short-term risk control [5]. - This model suggests a combination of low-valuation, high cash flow defensive assets for stability, alongside high-growth potential sectors for enhanced overall returns [5][6]. Economic and Market Outlook - Future A-share market performance will be influenced by overseas monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and domestic economic recovery [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a certain level of positions during market uptrends and focusing on key sectors without overly pursuing left-side trading strategies [6].
稳健为王!红利低波ETF(512890)近60日逆势吸金15.95亿 六年正收益成配置优选
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-26 09:24
9月26日 ,三大股指集体收跌,创指收跌超2%,红利低波ETF(512890)收平,报1.149元,换手率 1.73%,成交额3.51亿元,居同类标的ETF首位。 兴业证券在最新分析中强调,从中长期维度看,红利资产仍将是重要主线方向。一方面,在高胜率投资 需求下,红利板块的 "新底仓资产" 属性愈发重要;另一方面,当前市场高景气赛道稀缺,进一步强化 了资金对红利资产的配置偏好。这一观点与高盛此前提出的 "看好股东回报主题" 不谋而合,而 红利低 波ETF(512890)追踪的中证红利低波动指数,恰好聚焦高分红、低波动上市公司,与机构关注方向高 度契合。 针对普通投资者,业内专家建议可将红利低波ETF(512890)作为资产配置中稳健收益的核心组成部 分,通过定投方式分散入场时点,降低短期波动影响。对于没有股票账户的投资者,也可通过其场外联 接基金进行配置(A类份额代码:007466;C类份额代码:007467;I类份额代码:022678;Y类份额代 码:022951)。 风险提示:基金有风险,投资需谨慎。过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。投资者在做出投资决策前,应认 真阅读基金合同、招募说明书等文件,结合自身风险承 ...
港股开盘 | 恒指低开0.8% 医药股普跌
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 01:40
恒生指数低开0.8%,恒生科技指数跌0.97%。阿里巴巴跌跌超2%。医药股普跌,信达生物跌近3%。 华泰证券研报称,得益于国内AI进展的再加速,近期港股科技股快速反弹。恒生科技和恒生港股通科 技指数从7月低点累计上涨近20%。华泰证券此前就提出科技将引领港股第三次重估,一方面负面的因 素如外卖大战等预期基本计入,另一方面AI模型、芯片采购和资本开支有望提速。展望来看,在美联 储新一轮宽松周期开启、互联网及科技新一轮进展等启动下,港股情绪或仍有进一步改善空间,科技板 块或依然处在布局区。 国泰海通研报称,红利资产的本质是业绩稳定、现金流可持续的优质公司,能够为投资者提供稳定的高 股息回报,因此红利资产具备更高的股息率水平、可持续的稳定现金流、更稳健的财务结构、维持性的 资本开支。若对比两地红利资产看,港股性价比相对更高,第一,港股现金分红比例高于A股,2017- 2024年全部港股现金分红比例均值为44%,明显高于A股的36%;第二,相较A股,港股股息率优势明 显,港股恒生综合指数股息率为2.9%,高于万得全A指数的1.9%;第三,港股红利资产估值水平相对更 低,恒生高股息率R指数PE、PB分别为7.2倍、0. ...
景顺长城中证国新港股通央企红利ETF投资价值分析:港股央企红利,底仓配置优选
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-25 08:04
证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250925 港股央企红利,底仓配置优选——景顺长城 中证国新港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分 析 [Table_Summary] ◼ 看好港股红利的长期配置价值 1)配置视角:红利资产胜率占优,具备长期底仓配置价值。今年以来(截 至 9 月 18 日,后同),港股红利资产在市场波动中展现出极佳韧性,收益 回撤比高达 2.2 倍。未来中国资产牛仍将持续,红利资产虽在弹性上不及 成长板块,但仍凭借其高股息率与低波动率的特性,具备显著的绝对收益 配置价值。 2)政策视角:政策推动红利资产吸引力提升。2024 年至今,A 股上市公 司分红力度明显加大,政策支持为红利资产注入长期估值重塑动能。此外, 债券增值税新规或间接利好红利类资产。 3)资金视角:险资等长钱配置需求有望持续释放。当成长风格占据主导 时,部分交易型资金可能向成长板块迁移;但险资为代表的中长期资金基 于负债端久期匹配与收益稳定的需求,仍将为红利资产带来长期稳定的资 金流入。 4)红利资产内部:港股>A 股:港股恒生高股息指数的股息率为 6.14%, 经税后的实际收益水平仍优于 A 股同类资产。 ...
2025年8月电量点评:高基数扰动需求,后续电量有望维持高增
Orient Securities· 2025-09-25 06:20
公用事业行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 高基数扰动需求,后续电量有望维持高增 2025 年 8 月电量点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 孙辉贤 执业证书编号:S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 李晓渊 执业证书编号:S0860525090002 lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 海外云厂商CAPEX上修,数据中心电源需 求激活 2025-07-31 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好(维持) ⚫ 核心结论:我们认为 2025 年 8 月全社会用电量增速回落并非用电需求边际走弱,主 要由于 2024 年 8 月电量高基数。我们预计基数效应消退后,2025 年 9~12 月全社 会用电量有望维持快速增长。 ⚫ 气温高基数扰动下需求增速有所回落,后续用电量有望维持高增。2025 年 8 月全社 会用电量同比+5.0%,较 2025 年 7 月-3.6 pct(2 年 CAGR +6. ...
多位基金经理热议市场机会,谢治宇、董承非等重磅发声
天天基金网· 2025-09-25 03:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing attractiveness of equity assets in the A-share market, driven by favorable policy support, liquidity, and improving market sentiment, suggesting a potential for further market expansion in various sectors such as technology, new energy, and cyclical stocks [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market has shown significant performance, with active stock funds and mixed equity funds reporting net value growth rates of 58.17% and 56.98% respectively over the past year [4]. - The technology sector has been a leading driver of market recovery, with AI and semiconductor industries highlighted as key areas for investment [6][7]. - The new energy sector, particularly solid-state batteries, is experiencing a strong recovery due to policy support and technological advancements, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Insights - Fund managers suggest that the current low-risk yield environment necessitates the inclusion of risk assets in investment portfolios to achieve higher returns, with equities being particularly attractive [5]. - A focus on companies with strong competitive advantages is recommended to ensure better performance during market fluctuations [8]. - The "fixed income plus" products are highlighted as a strategy to balance stable bond returns with the potential for higher equity returns, aiming for a robust investment experience [9].
港股开盘 | 恒指高开0.07% 奇瑞汽车(09973)上市首日高开超11%
智通财经网· 2025-09-25 01:37
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.13%. Chery Automobile saw a first-day increase of over 11%, Zijin Mining rose nearly 4%, and JD Group increased by nearly 2% [1] - Huatai Securities reported that the recent rebound in Hong Kong tech stocks is driven by accelerated domestic AI developments, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index rising nearly 20% since July [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a bottoming out of earnings in the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates recorded at 1.9% and 4.6% respectively as of September 15 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts a turning point in earnings growth for Hong Kong stocks in the second half of 2025, with high growth expected in materials, healthcare, and technology sectors, while sectors like energy and consumer staples may see a turnaround [2] - CITIC Jiantou noted that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will directly benefit Hong Kong stocks, with ample liquidity and continued inflow of southbound funds [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan's report emphasized that dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flows, providing investors with stable high dividend returns, with Hong Kong stocks offering better value compared to A-shares [3] - The average cash dividend ratio for all Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, higher than A-shares at 36%, and the dividend yield for the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A Index [3] - Hong Kong's high dividend assets have a lower valuation level, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times respectively, lower than the CSI Dividend Total Return Index at 7.9 times and 0.8 times [3]
华创交运|红利资产月报(2025年9月):不乏股息率5%优质标的,重视交运红利投资价值-20250924
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-24 14:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for transportation dividend assets, highlighting the presence of quality stocks with a dividend yield of over 5% [1]. Core Viewpoints - The transportation sector has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index and the transportation index, with a cumulative decline of 0.3% from September 1 to September 22, 2025 [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend assets in the transportation sector, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which has led to a significant increase in trading volumes for ports [25][28]. - The report identifies several high-quality stocks with attractive dividend yields, such as Sichuan Chengyu (5.3%) and Tangshan Port (5.2%) [4][73]. Monthly Market Performance - The transportation sector's performance from September 1 to September 22, 2025, shows declines in highway, railway, and port segments, with cumulative changes of -5.25%, -2.76%, and -0.86%, respectively [4][9]. - Year-to-date performance indicates that highway, railway, and port segments have also underperformed, with cumulative changes of -14.95%, -11.4%, and -3.56% [9]. Market Environment - The report notes a continued low-interest-rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.86% as of September 22, 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [25][28]. - Trading volumes for transportation assets have seen significant growth, with average daily transaction values for highways, railways, and ports increasing by 8.4%, 25.6%, and 104%, respectively [28]. Industry Data - Highway passenger volume in July 2025 was 950 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, while freight volume increased by 3.3% to 3.699 billion tons [34]. - Railway passenger volume in July 2025 reached 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with freight volume at 45.2 million tons, up 4.5% [46]. - Port cargo throughput for the four weeks ending September 21, 2025, was 1.063 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks in the highway sector, particularly Sichuan Chengyu and Anhui Wantong, which have shown stable performance and growth potential [73]. - In the port sector, the report recommends companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port for their high dividend yields and growth prospects [73]. - For the railway sector, it highlights the potential of assets like the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and the Daqin Railway, which are expected to benefit from long-term reforms and dividend growth [73].