Market Overview - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices reaching new highs before a pullback, ultimately recording a weekly increase of 1.91% [1] - Factors influencing gold prices include easing geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, concerns over U.S. sovereign debt, and strong economic data [1] - Market focus is on upcoming events such as U.S. non-farm payroll data, the expiration of Trump's tariff suspension, and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Gold Price Analysis - Weekly analysis shows gold prices dropped to $3247.4 before rebounding to a high of $3365.6, closing with a bullish weekly candle [3] - Technical indicators such as TRIX, KDJ, and MACD suggest a bearish outlook, with expectations for gold to potentially decline to $3200 in the near term [3] - On Friday, influenced by the U.S. Independence Day holiday, gold showed limited volatility, with a recommendation to short positions around $3345-$3348, resulting in a profit as prices fell to $3331 [3] Trading Recommendations - For the upcoming week, a trading strategy suggests shorting gold around $3347-$3350, with a stop loss at $3355 and a target profit at $3325 [5]

美联储哈玛克未对经济及货币政策前景发表评论。 ...

美联储巴尔金：近期经济数据表现稳健，经济前景仍不明朗。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in May, which is below economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut next month [1] - The trimmed mean CPI, a key inflation indicator monitored by the central bank, fell from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The main contributors to annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9%), housing (+2%), and tobacco and alcohol, while electricity prices decreased by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in July surged from 80% to over 90%, indicating strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The RBA had already cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% last month, marking the second policy easing of the year, as policymakers believe the risk of rising price pressures has diminished [4] - The Australian economy is showing signs of a deflationary trend, which provides the RBA with the confidence to consider further rate cuts while maintaining a stable inflation environment [4]

英国央行副行长拉姆斯登：重要的是，货币政策依赖于经济前景，应在需要应对经济前景时做出反应， 且市场对反应有所预期。 ...

金十提示：美联储理事库格勒未对经济或货币政策前景发表评论。 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos点评：这是自美国总统特朗普在今年春季任命鲍曼、并得到参议院批准 担任监管副主席以来，鲍曼首次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]

美联储货币政策报告：政策已做好等待更明确经济前景的充分准备。 ...

金十数据整理：英国央行6月利率决议重点一览——投票分歧意外增大，8月降息概率上升？ 5. 通胀前景：中期CPI路径的风险具有双向性，预计今年剩余时间薪资将"大幅"放缓。CPI预计将在九月 达到3.7%的峰值，年内其余时间将保持在3.5%以下。 6. 关税影响：初步分析显示，关税冲击对全球GDP的直接影响可能比五月预期的更小。近期全球局势发 展未对6月维持利率的决定产生重大影响。 1. 利率决定：英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期。 2. 投票比例：投票比例为6:3，英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉、英国央行副行长拉姆斯登以及委员泰勒 投票支持降息。 3. 利率前景：逐步和审慎的方式仍然是适当的，强调货币政策并未沿预设路径进行。行长贝利表示，利 率将"逐步下降"。 4. 经济前景：预测二季度GDP环比增长约0.25%（5月预测为增长0.1%）。英国潜在的GDP增长似乎仍 然疲弱。 7. 行情影响：英镑兑美元GBP/USD短线下挫，交易员提高对英国央行8月降息的押注，预计降息可能性 达80%，同时预计央行今年还会再降息50个基点。 英镑/美元 ...