Group 1 - The Vietnamese Prime Minister has set the economic growth target for this year at 8.3% to 8.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's Trade Minister remains optimistic about achieving the economic growth target for this year despite challenges [1] Group 1 - The Minister highlighted that the country is on track to meet its economic growth objectives, indicating resilience in the face of global economic uncertainties [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of trade and investment in driving economic growth, with ongoing efforts to enhance Malaysia's trade performance [1] - The government is focusing on diversifying its trade partners and exploring new markets to sustain growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese Prime Minister has stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% from 2025 is a significant challenge [1] Group 1 - The Prime Minister emphasized the ambitious nature of the 8% growth target, indicating it will require substantial effort and strategic planning [1]

Core Insights - The Vietnamese government faces a significant challenge in achieving its growth target of 8% for the year [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Prime Minister of Vietnam has highlighted the difficulty in reaching the 8% growth goal, indicating potential economic hurdles [1]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.7%, but down 0.3 percentage points from April[2] - The cumulative value from January to May is still 0.5 percentage points higher than the total for last year[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 5.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9%, and up 1.3 percentage points from April[2] - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth from January to May was 3.7%, below the expected 4.0%, but still 0.5 percentage points higher than last year[2] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector investment from January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from January to April, and 0.7 percentage points lower than last year[10] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from January to April, but up 1.2 percentage points from last year[10] - Real estate investment showed a decline of 10.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from January to April, and 0.1 percentage points lower than last year[10] Trade and Exports - In May, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from April, while cumulative exports from January to May were up 0.2 percentage points from last year[11] - Imports decreased by 3.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from April, with cumulative imports down 12.3% from last year[11] - The trade surplus in May was $103.2 billion, a historical high, with a cumulative surplus of $471.9 billion from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%[11] Economic Challenges - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, slightly below the expected 5.1%, but youth unemployment remains high, affecting consumer confidence[4] - The CPI in May was -0.1%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, while the PPI was -3.3%[25] - Real estate sector challenges continue to impact overall economic growth, with new housing starts down 22.8% year-on-year from January to May[33]

Economic Indicators - Export high-frequency indicators have started to weaken, with the SCFI showing a month-on-month decline of 6.8% and a drop in growth rate by 14.9 percentage points[4] - Real estate sales continue to decline, with May's sales area down 4.6% year-on-year and residential sales area down 5.5% year-on-year, reaching a new low since the Spring Festival[4] Policy Implications - The weakening of both export and real estate data suggests a potential for increased domestic policy support, although the intensity is expected to be less than the incremental policies introduced after September 26 last year[4] - The State Council has indicated a need to optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand, signaling possible policy adjustments[4] Economic Growth Outlook - Despite the challenges, the economic performance in the first half of the year is better than the same period last year, with GDP growth likely to exceed 5%[4] - The current economic environment suggests that a GDP growth rate slightly below 5% in the second half could still meet the annual growth target[4] Investment Trends - Investment growth continues to decline, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, indicating that consumer spending alone may not offset negative external factors[4] - The average weekly transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities has remained below 2 million square meters since April, down 23.1% compared to the average levels in Q4 last year and Q1 this year[4]

Core Viewpoint - The French Minister of Finance stated that the economic growth target for 2025 is achievable [1] Economic Growth - The government aims for a specific economic growth rate by 2025, indicating confidence in the country's economic recovery and development [1] - The statement reflects a positive outlook on the economic policies and measures being implemented [1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 11 日 2025 年一季度货币政策执 行报告 适度宽松的货币政策助力高质量发展 2025年一季度货币政策执行报告内容改动较大的部分主要是对国际经济形势 的判断和货币政策执行；在'专栏 5 从政府部门资产负债表视角对比中美日 政府债务情况'的部分，通过横向对比强调了我国政府债务扩张的可持续性。 相关研究报告 《通胀预期对美联储更重要》20250510 《1-4 月进出口数据点评》20250510 《A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报分析》 20250508 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 2025 年一季度货币政策坚持'稳'的基调。一季度降准降息缺席，但金 融体系整体流动性保持稳定，3 月末金融机构超额准备金率为 1.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's economic growth, emphasizing the need for China to implement substantial policy measures to achieve its economic growth target of around 5% for the year [1][3]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - To meet the 5% GDP growth target, China may require an additional 2 trillion yuan in policy measures, considering a fiscal multiplier of 0.5, which corresponds to approximately 1.4 trillion yuan needed for a 1% GDP increase [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw China's GDP grow by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, with exports increasing by 6.9% and industrial output rising by 6.5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact and Manufacturing Challenges - The U.S. tariffs are expected to have a delayed impact, particularly in the second and third quarters, as the effects of previous export surges and new tariffs converge [4]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in reversing the trend of deindustrialization, primarily due to high labor costs and a lack of complete supply chain infrastructure [2][6]. Consumer Spending and Economic Policy - To stimulate consumer spending, there is a need for systemic adjustments in income distribution and fiscal policies, focusing on increasing residents' income share [7]. - Enhancing social security measures, particularly in rural areas, is seen as a necessary step to improve consumption and economic stability [8]. Currency Stability - The Chinese yuan has shown relative stability against the U.S. dollar, which is crucial for maintaining market confidence and mitigating external trade pressures [9]. Real Estate Market Strategies - The Chinese government is expected to continue focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including increasing the supply of high-quality housing, which is vital for economic growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese Prime Minister has set an economic growth target of no less than 8% for the year 2025, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining robust economic performance despite global challenges [1] Economic Growth Target - The target for economic growth in 2025 is set at a minimum of 8%, reflecting the government's confidence in the country's economic resilience and potential for expansion [1] Government Commitment - The Vietnamese government is focused on implementing policies that support sustainable economic growth, aiming to enhance the overall economic environment and attract foreign investment [1]