摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.84%。板块指数中，只有南华黑色指数，上涨 0.32%，其余板块均是下跌，跌幅最大的板块是南华贵金属指数，跌幅为-1.15%，跌幅最小的板块是南华金属指 数，跌幅为-0.4%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是黑色原材料指数，上涨0.49%，涨幅最小的主题指数是经济 作物指数，涨幅为0.38%，跌幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，跌幅为-1.23%，跌幅最小的主题指数是建材指数，跌 幅为-0.15%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是线材，上涨3.01% 南华商品指数：黑色板块上涨，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-10-10 16:47:58 > 南华期货 gger mind, Bigger fortur 智慧创造财富 南华商品指数日报 2025年10月10日 南华商品指数市场数据 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | 年化收益率 | 年化渡动率 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | ARR | Points | ది? | An. Vol | Ratio | 2572.47 | ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025 [1][2] - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [2] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - For example, the price fluctuation limit for aluminum alloy futures will be adjusted to 7%, while for gold and silver futures, it will be set at 15% [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after trading, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels following the first trading day without a one-sided market [3] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will be governed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [4]

Group 1 - The black metal futures market showed mixed performance on September 22, with most contracts rising while manganese silicon fell nearly 2% [1] - As of September 22, iron ore futures rose by 0.25% to 807.50 CNY/ton, rebar increased by 0.76% to 3182.00 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil gained 0.51% to 3379.00 CNY/ton, while manganese silicon dropped by 1.77% to 5874.00 CNY/ton [1][2] - The opening prices for rebar, iron ore, and hot-rolled coil were 3172.00 CNY, 811.00 CNY, and 3374.00 CNY respectively, indicating stable market conditions [2] Group 2 - As of September 19, rebar warehouse futures increased by 6931 tons to 256453 tons, while hot-rolled coil futures decreased by 7721 tons to 37228 tons [3] - The futures market showed a phenomenon of "backwardation" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and iron ore, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - The basis for manganese silicon was -220 CNY, indicating that the spot price was lower than the futures price, reflecting a negative market sentiment [4]

本周三（9月3日），国内期市黑色金属板块多数飘绿，其中，线材期货呈现震荡上行走势，截止发稿主 力合约报3271.00元，震荡走高0.18%。 更新时间： 市场资讯： 截止9月3日，贵阳市场建筑钢材社会库存6.295万吨，较9月2日增加0.055万吨。 9月2日，76家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为3333元/吨，日环比减少12元/吨，平均利润亏损133 元/吨，谷电利润亏损36元/吨，日环比减少6元/吨。 9月2日，全国建材成交量9.9万吨，环比上个交易日增加10.86%。 机构观点： 申银万国期货研报：当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材供应端压 力逐步体现。钢材库存持续累积，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响，但钢坯出口保持强劲。整体钢材 市场供需矛盾暂不大。品种分化有所体现，螺纹整体表现弱于热卷，主力合约卷螺差较大。短期出口暂 无明显减量，表需数据维持韧性，钢材市场供需双弱且库存变化不大。短期回调看待，交易逻辑短期更 关注基本面变动，调整看待。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange released data on steel inventory and changes, indicating fluctuations in various steel product warehouse receipts [1] Group 1: Steel Product Inventory Data - Rebar futures warehouse receipts totaled 191,057 tons, an increase of 6,730 tons month-on-month [1] - Wire rod futures warehouse receipts stood at 605 tons, remaining unchanged [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts were at 24,760 tons, a decrease of 596 tons month-on-month [1] - Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts amounted to 100,431 tons, a decrease of 420 tons [1]

Group 1 - The black metal futures market in China experienced a collective decline on August 20, with manganese silicon futures dropping over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, iron ore futures fell by 0.97% to 763.00 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil futures decreased by 0.93% to 3391.00 CNY/ton, manganese silicon futures dropped by 2.61% to 5814.00 CNY/ton, and silicon iron futures fell by 2.10% to 5602.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - On August 19, the warehouse futures data for black metals showed an increase in rebar futures warehouse receipts by 15,137 tons compared to the previous trading day, while iron ore futures receipts decreased by 100 contracts [3] - The data also indicated an increase in stainless steel warehouse receipts by 19,010 tons and a slight increase in hot-rolled coil futures receipts by 880 tons [3] - Conversely, silicon iron futures receipts decreased by 114 contracts, and manganese silicon futures receipts fell by 407 contracts [3] Group 3 - As of August 19, several black metal varieties exhibited a phenomenon of "backwardation," where spot prices were higher than futures prices [3] - The basis for rebar was 102 CNY with a basis rate of 3.14%, while the basis for manganese silicon was -130 CNY with a basis rate of -2.23% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of black metal futures, with iron ore prices rising while other metals like manganese silicon and silicon iron are declining [1][2] - As of July 16, iron ore futures increased by 1.37% to 775.50 CNY/ton, while manganese silicon and silicon iron decreased by 0.45% and 0.47%, respectively [1] - The futures prices for various black metals on July 16 show that rebar opened at 3115.00 CNY, while iron ore opened at 767.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - On July 15, the warehouse receipts for rebar increased by 8179 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the receipts for iron ore remained unchanged [3] - The data indicates a phenomenon of "backwardation" in rebar, hot-rolled coil, and stainless steel contracts, where spot prices exceed futures prices [3] - The basis data shows that the basis for rebar is 52 CNY, indicating a basis rate of 1.64%, while the basis for silicon iron is -299 CNY, reflecting a basis rate of -5.75% [4]

Group 1 - The black metal futures market in China showed a positive trend on July 2, with significant price increases across various contracts, including silicon iron rising nearly 2% [1] - As of July 2, the main contracts reported the following prices: silicon iron at 5346.00 CNY/ton, rebar at 3030.00 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3156.00 CNY/ton, and ferrosilicon at 5678.00 CNY/ton [1][2] - The opening and closing prices for rebar were 3003.00 CNY and 2987.00 CNY respectively, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 2 - On July 1, the inventory data for black metal futures indicated an increase in rebar warehouse receipts by 6393 tons, while stainless steel receipts decreased by 184 tons [3] - The futures market showed a phenomenon of "backwardation" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and iron ore, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - The basis data revealed that rebar had a basis of 82 CNY with a basis rate of 2.67%, while silicon iron had a negative basis of -99 CNY with a basis rate of -1.92% [4]

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange co-hosted the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, highlighting the increasing financial attributes of steel futures and the clear trend in pricing [1] - The steel industry is experiencing rapid growth, leading to a significant expansion of the steel spot trading market, with nine steel-related futures products currently listed, including four on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - Rebar is noted as the world's largest metal futures product by trading volume, indicating the importance of steel futures in the global market [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has been actively engaging with steel enterprises to understand their needs, resulting in improved contract continuity and delivery convenience, with an overall increase in delivery volumes for hot-rolled and rebar products [2] - The steel industry is entering a phase characterized by reduction in production and optimization of existing capacity, presenting greater operational pressures for enterprises [2] - The China Steel Industry Association is focusing on enhancing industrial foundational capabilities and modernizing the supply chain, emphasizing green low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing as key development themes [2] Group 3 - The steel industry is recognized as a crucial foundational industry for the national economy, and the China Steel Industry Association aims to work with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and industry stakeholders to continuously improve steel futures regulations and promote the integration of finance and industry [3]