Core Insights - Nearly half of German economists rated the economic policies of Chancellor Merz's new government negatively, indicating a lack of structural reforms [1] - The survey conducted by the Ifo Institute revealed that 42% of respondents criticized the economic policies during the first 100 days of the "black-red coalition," while only 25% provided positive feedback [1] - Germany's economy has contracted for two consecutive years, with many analysts predicting stagnation for the current year, highlighting the urgent need for economic revitalization under Merz's administration [1]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support economic growth and consumer demand, while addressing local government debt risks and enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [1][2] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported a significant decline in marriage registrations, with 6.106 million couples registered in 2024, a decrease of 20.5% year-on-year, indicating a marriage rate of 4.3‰ [3] - The Ministry of Health called for strengthened measures to prevent the spread of the Chikungunya virus, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation and monitoring [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict future rate cuts due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [2] - The U.S. economy showed a surprising growth in Q2 with a 3% annualized increase in GDP, exceeding market expectations of 2.4% [8] - The ADP reported an increase of 104,000 jobs in July, surpassing economists' expectations, although still below last year's average [9] Group 3 - The Chinese government plans to increase the budget for childcare subsidies to approximately 90 billion yuan, with a full rollout of applications by August 31 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce held discussions with major U.S. companies, including Boeing and Apple, regarding U.S.-China trade relations and the development of American businesses in China [3] - The real estate market in China saw a seasonal decline in land transactions in July, with a 13% decrease in transaction area and an 18% decrease in transaction value [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the refined nickel market is in a supply - surplus situation, with the short - term upward momentum weakening. The recommended strategy is to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices. The estimated price range is between 117,000 - 118,000 and 122,000 - 123,000 [1][2] - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is insufficient, and the nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term. The recommended strategy is similar to that of nickel, with an estimated price range between 124,000 - 125,000 and 130,000 - 131,000 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,960 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,732 lots, and the open interest was 59,940 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day. The short - term callback demand exists, and the 117,000 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands decreased, and the premium of refined nickel decreased but remained at a high level, providing support for the futures price [1] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,296 (854.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (402) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000. Unilateral trading should be range - bound, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,715 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,687 lots, and the open interest was 66,494 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly compared to the previous day due to partial position shifting. The pressure levels are around 12,700 and 13,100, and the 12,400 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices in the morning were mostly flat, and increased by 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, but the trading volume did not improve, and market confidence was still insufficient. The nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Unilateral trading is neutral, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Group 1 - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expresses feeling "politically homeless," criticizing the Democratic Party for not supporting a culture that encourages innovation and entrepreneurship [1] - Altman advocates for "tech capitalism," emphasizing the need to encourage wealth creation while finding ways to distribute wealth broadly [1] - His comments appear to be a response to New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's statement against billionaires, highlighting a fundamental divide between tech executives and some Democratic politicians on wealth distribution and economic policy [1][2] Group 2 - Altman argues that wealth creation and distribution must go hand in hand, stating, "You cannot just raise the bottom line without raising the top line" [1] - He expresses a preference for discussions on how to enable everyone to have what billionaires possess, rather than eliminating billionaires [3] - This reflects two contrasting views on wealth: one advocating for limiting wealth to achieve equality, and the other promoting overall wealth enhancement to reduce disparities [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market is tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, there is significant macro - uncertainty, and investors are trading cautiously. The volatility of copper prices in four markets is at a low level [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are low, but the spot premium has narrowed. Consumption in some industries is good, while others show off - season characteristics. The supply of copper concentrates and recycled copper is tight, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts. The expected Trump tariff on imported copper may cause a supply shortage outside the US [8]. - US tariff and economic policies bring uncertainty to the market. The market expects that even if Trump's tax - cut bill is passed, it may have a complex impact on the economy [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, although copper prices have risen slightly this week, it is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to look for phased trading opportunities in unilateral trading, conduct internal - external reverse arbitrage, and try Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End 3.1.1 Volatility - The volatility of copper prices in four markets has continued to decline. The volatility of COMEX copper prices has fallen to around 17%, and that of LME copper prices has dropped to around 7% [13]. 3.1.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of Shanghai copper term has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 06 - 07 contracts has fallen from 330 yuan/ton on May 30 to 80 yuan/ton on June 6. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, and the C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [16]. 3.1.3 Position - The positions of Shanghai copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all increased. Shanghai copper positions have increased by 27,500 lots to 569,400 lots [20]. 3.1.4 Capital and Industry Position - The net long position of LME commercial shorts has increased from 62,700 lots on May 23 to 62,900 lots. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has risen from 22,600 lots on May 27 to 24,100 lots on June 3 [27]. 3.1.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has weakened. The US and Rotterdam copper premiums are at high levels, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has risen to a historically high level [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory - Global total inventories have increased, domestic social inventories have stabilized and rebounded, bonded area inventories have recovered, COMEX inventories have increased, and LME copper inventories have decreased [40]. 3.1.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 06 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supply [41]. 3.2 Supply End 3.2.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports have increased. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.9244 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories have decreased rapidly, and processing fees have remained weak [45]. 3.2.2 Recycled Copper - Recycled copper imports and domestic production have decreased significantly. In April, imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread has expanded, but is below the break - even point, and import profitability has narrowed [48][52]. 3.2.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper imports have increased. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Processing fees are at a low level [57]. 3.2.4 Refined Copper - Refined copper production has increased more than expected. In May, production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports have decreased, and exports are profitable, which may lead to domestic supplies being transported overseas [59]. 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1开工率 - The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated and have weakened overall. In May, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable has continued to decline [63]. 3.3.2 Profit - The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history and has weakened. The copper tube processing fee has remained stable and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [69]. 3.3.3 Raw Material Inventory - The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level [70]. 3.3.4 Finished Product Inventory - The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [73]. 3.4 Consumption End 3.4.1 Consumption - Domestic copper actual and apparent consumption have performed well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption, and power grid investment has accelerated [78]. 3.4.2 Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production - The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%. New energy vehicle production is at a high level in the same period of history. In April, production was 1.251 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [79].

Core Viewpoint - The draft document indicates that Japan's economic policy roadmap aims to promote domestic holdings of government bonds to prevent further increases in long-term interest rates [1] Group 1 - The policy is designed to stabilize the bond market and mitigate the impact of rising interest rates on the economy [1] - Emphasis on domestic investment in government bonds reflects a strategic shift in Japan's economic management [1] - The approach aims to enhance financial stability and support economic growth by managing interest rate fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The approval rating of Prime Minister Kishida's cabinet has reached a record low of 22%, down 2 percentage points from the previous survey, with a disapproval rating of 62% [1] - The cabinet has been in the "danger zone" for three consecutive months, with a rating below 30% considered critical and below 20% seen as a potential for resignation [1] - The primary reason for disapproval is a lack of expectations for economic policies, cited by 39.5% of respondents, with over half (51.7%) of the ruling party's supporters calling for food tax reductions [1] Group 2 - There is growing internal dissent within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party regarding economic policies, with concerns that young candidates may face defeat in upcoming elections [2] - The opposition parties are criticizing the government's economic strategies as lacking direction, aiming to leverage this for the upcoming summer elections [2] - The Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has refrained from commenting on the survey results but emphasized the need to address public demands and focus on policies to combat rising prices [2]

美国总统特朗普第二个任期执政将满百日。据参考消息援引外媒报道，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间4 月29日在密歇根州举行集会庆祝执政100天，这将是他重返白宫以来首次举行集会。 而据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月27日，美国广播公司、《华盛顿邮报》以及益普索集团联合进行的一 项最新民意调查结果显示，特朗普的执政百日支持率为39%，创下过去80年来美国历任总统的最低执政 百日支持率。 这肯定是不会让特朗普高兴的数据，而特朗普恐怕很难把这一调查结果视作对他的又一次构陷或者攻 击。事实上，近期《经济学人》、YouGov、拉斯穆森公司、密歇根大学、昆尼皮亚克大学等美国主要 民调机构的调查数据，均给出了相似的结论。 就连一向亲共和党的福克斯新闻的独家民调也显示,尽管特朗普执政百日内推行的边境政策取得了超过 半数的支持率,然而，对他的经济政策表示支持的只有38%,支持其关税政策的更是仅有33%。 在3月份的首次国会演讲中，特朗普曾夸耀他第二次大选获胜是"几十年来从未见过的民意授权"。然 而，近期不同机构的调查结果都显示，除了无条件支持特朗普的"基本盘"外，他的民意支持率流失之 快，或许才是"几十年未见"的。当然，这个结果绝对谈不上 ...

Core Insights - Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president at the 100-day mark in the past 80 years [2] - A significant portion of the public, 72%, believes Trump's economic policies may lead to a recession in the short term, with 53% stating that the economic situation has worsened since he took office [2] - Trump's handling of immigration and government management has faced disapproval from over half of the respondents [2] Group 1: Approval Ratings - Trump's overall approval rating stands at approximately 39%, with a notable decline of 4 percentage points since March and a 7-point drop since February [2] - Among Republicans, about 86% express approval, while 93% of Democrats disapprove, indicating a stark partisan divide [2] - Support among independents has fallen to 31%, reflecting a significant decrease in cross-party appeal [2] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Trump's approval regarding economic management has decreased by 9 percentage points to 35%, with only 52% of respondents expressing confidence in his economic handling, down 13 points from December [3] - Concerns over tariffs have also contributed to a 4-point drop in approval to 35%, leading to volatility in the stock market and rising price concerns [2][3] - Approximately 41% of respondents feel their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump's presidency began [2] Group 3: Public Sentiment on Policies - A majority of Democrats view Trump's immigration and tariff policies as excessive, with many expressing a negative outlook on his economic prospects compared to his previous term [1] - Trump's foreign policy, particularly his stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, has garnered significant opposition, with only 39% approval [3] - Confidence in Trump's ability to handle foreign affairs has decreased to 50%, down from 55% before he took office [3]

中共中央政治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政 策。 中国一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增，同比增长0.8%。 中国六部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元，现金退税限额上调至2万元。 国家市场监管总局：长和港口交易各方不得采取任何方式规避反垄断审查。 今年核电项目开闸，国常会核准10台新机组，拉动超2000亿投资。 特朗普：谈成200份协议，美日协议"非常接近"，关税不太可能再暂缓90天。 美联储金融稳定报告：多种资产估值处高位，美债收益率高企，贸易升至头号风险。 俄方称普京与美特使确认，俄愿无先决条件与乌谈判，双方讨论了恢复俄乌直接谈判的可能性。 泽连斯基公布与特朗普会晤细节，强调实现全面、无条件停火。 美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗会后称双方仍存在分歧；媒体称特朗普表示愿与哈梅内伊或佩泽 希齐扬会面。 印巴周四晚在克什米尔实控线附近小规模交火，巴防长发出"全面战争"警告；地缘冲突升级，周 五印度股债汇三杀。 提醒：周一中国国新办将就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行发布会。 ...