全球资本市场的总开关，在2026年1月被卡住了。 比如他希望美联储下调基准利率下调至3%。意思是还得再降至少50个基点才能维持当前的平衡。 但是根据芝商所的数据，市场普遍都觉得，美联储在1月29日可能并不会对利率有所调整——这大概是鲍威尔最后能做的事情了。 因为鲍威尔和整个FOMC，基本上已经没有操作空间。一边是无论如何解决不了的通胀。一边是依然在失速的美国经济。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的第487篇时评。 美联储1月的议息会议马上就要开了，但是核心议题却并不是接下来的货币政策。所有人目前都只有一个疑问——将要上台的这个人，到底是不是特朗普 的傀儡。 货币政策可以再讨论，但接班人是谁，他将要怎么做，这个已经没办法等待了。 目前最热门的人选是贝莱德公司的高管里克·里德尔。他没有央行从业经验，只是在华尔街混了几十年。当然他管理的资产足够庞大，他的观点也和特朗 普的足够契合。 1月22日公布的美联储最青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%。实话实说是符合预期的，但这也不影响远远没有达到 2%的目标。 鲍威尔团队也不想因为降息被人贴上像通胀投降的标签。 美国12月非农就业只新增 ...

当前政策环境面临明显两难。一方面，通胀仍显著高于2%的长期目标，限制宽松空间；另一方面，劳动力市场边际走弱，使过度收紧政策面临经济下行风 险。美联储需在控制通胀与避免衰退之间保持平衡。 去年秋季政府停摆结束后，美国经济表现较预期稳健，劳动力市场趋于企稳。数据显示，去年12月失业率回落至4.4%。不过，多数经济学家认为，短期改 善不足以改变对政策前景的谨慎判断。 通胀压力尚未有效缓解，而居民收入增长乏力，难以支撑经济内生增长，美联储政策空间受限。 美联储内部分歧亦在加大。一部分官员担忧招聘动力不足，倾向适度宽松；另一部分官员更关注高通胀风险，担心宽松加剧调控难度，主张保持谨慎。 前达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan指出，在通胀未呈现明确、可持续下行趋势前，美联储不会轻易启动新一轮降息，政策调整需看到通胀向2%目标稳步回落 的确凿证据。 美联储官员已明确表示本周将维持基准利率不变，市场关注焦点由"是否降息"转向"何时降息、降息节奏如何"。随着通胀回落进展不及预期，市场对快速降 息的预期明显降温，政策前景分歧加剧。 此前市场对进一步宽松仍存期待，但目前主流观点认为，美联储最早或于7月启动降息。观望期拉长意味着 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a paradoxical situation where the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $60 per barrel and Brent crude dropping over 1% [1][3] - The strong dollar has made oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers, contributing to a collective market concern about the global economic outlook and an oversupply in the oil market [1][3] - The U.S. crude oil inventory surged by 7.3 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, which shattered the illusion of supply-demand balance [3] Group 2 - OPEC's monthly report acknowledged that global oil production exceeds demand by 500,000 barrels per day, which has caught the market off guard [3] - The U.S. shale oil production remains at high levels, and some OPEC members are not adhering to production cuts, while Russian export levels remain elevated, creating a triple pressure on supply [3] - Demand-side indicators are also bleak, with manufacturing PMIs in Europe and the U.S. consistently below the growth threshold, indicating a slowdown in global economic growth [3] Group 3 - The decline in oil prices is triggering a chain reaction in the industry, with major oil companies reporting a 17.2% drop in profits year-on-year, and specific companies like Saudi Aramco and Chevron experiencing profit declines of 10% and 32%, respectively [8] - ConocoPhillips announced a 25% global workforce reduction, and Chevron is also implementing similar layoffs, marking the largest wave of layoffs in the U.S. shale oil sector since 2022 [9] - A total of 22 publicly listed oil companies have collectively cut $2 billion in spending, which may suppress future supply and set the stage for a potential rebound in oil prices [10] Group 4 - The risk of default on high-yield bonds in the energy sector is rising, reminiscent of the energy loan crisis triggered by the oil price crash in 2015-2016 [11] - Consumers may benefit in the short term from falling gasoline and diesel prices, which will lower transportation and logistics costs, thereby increasing disposable income [12] - The decline in oil prices is expected to ease inflationary pressures, as energy is a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), providing more room for central bank monetary policy [13] Group 5 - The significant drop in oil prices could signal a potential economic recession, as falling prices often reflect a contraction in global economic activity [14] - The OPEC decision regarding the continuation of the voluntary production cut agreement of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day will be crucial in determining the future direction of oil prices [14] - Morgan Stanley has revised its oil price forecast, predicting Brent crude will average $62.50 per barrel in the second half of 2025, which is $5 lower than previous expectations [14] Group 6 - Traders are focusing on the upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window on February 3, with expectations of a potential increase of 105 yuan per ton, although this is not yet a certainty [15] - There is a divergence in Wall Street analysts' views, with pessimists pointing to clear signs of a global economic recession and potential oil price drops to the $50 mark, while optimists believe that the supply-demand dynamics will shift back, allowing oil prices to return to $80 [15]

Let's get Kramer's mad dash as we count down to the bell. >> I feel very counterintuitive today. We talked about Phil Leau and GE Larry Culp.That stock was down. We talked about Lip Boo and why Intel is down and that Intel is good. I want to address Capital One.This was an amazing conference call. They bought this terrific company Brex. I didn't nearly even know how much business that Brex does.That's for corporate. They want to go directly against American Express. Yes.Did they disappoint in the quarter. D ...

新华财经纽约1月22日电（记者 刘亚南）美国最高法院21日上午就特朗普政府解雇美国联邦储备委员会 理事莉萨·库克案举行约两个小时的口头辩论，这场关于美联储理事去留问题的辩论，显示出近期联邦 政府与美联储之间的博弈持续升温。 由于美国最高法院就此案的裁决结果将产生重要影响，除库克本人出庭外，美联储主席鲍威尔和前美联 储主席伯南克等重要人物也出现在口头辩论现场。 美国财政部长贝森特指责鲍威尔越界。他认为，鲍威尔正在让美联储"政治化"，鲍威尔的出现是一 个"政治宣示"。 来源：中国金融信息网 保守派大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺认为，如果总统可以不经司法审查、无需履行程序并不提供救济渠道就作 出解职的决定，"将削弱美联储的独立性"。立场同样偏保守的大法官埃米·科尼·巴雷特表示，有部分经 济学家认为，如果库克被解职，将触发经济衰退。"在这样的案件中，我们应该如何考量公共利益？如 果有这种风险，我们是否应谨慎行事？" 库克的代理律师保罗·克莱门特在辩论中说，最高法院要取得平衡，应该倾向于让库克继续履职。库克 在住房抵押贷款上的问题最多是"因疏忽而造成的错误"。 库克在法庭辩论结束后发表声明说，这一案件关乎美联储依据证据和独立判断 ...

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a significant decline with Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% due to the market being closed for a holiday [1] - Major European stock indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold rising by 2% to $4690.88 per ounce, currently reported at $4675.76 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also surged over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, currently reported at $94.479 per ounce [4] Economic Concerns - Economists warned that if President Trump quickly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP projected to decline by 0.3% to 0.75% [6] - The World Bank estimated that if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [6] - Current quarterly growth for the UK economy is only 0.2% to 0.3%, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [6] Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, marking an unusual public statement of support [6] - The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden [6] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining current rates; by March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.7% [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. stock markets were closed due to a holiday, but futures indicated a significant decline, with Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% [1] - European stock indices also experienced collective declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to increased safe-haven demand triggered by Trump's tariff threats against Europe, with spot gold rising 2% to $4690.88 per ounce and currently at $4675.76 per ounce [3] - Spot silver increased over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce and currently at $94.479 per ounce [3] Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists warned that if President Trump quickly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP projected to decline by 0.3% to 0.75% [4] - The World Bank estimated that if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [5] - The Chief Economist for Capital Economics indicated that the UK economy is currently growing at only 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, marking an unusual public statement of support for Cook [6] - The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden [6] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets triggered by tariff threats from President Trump and other factors [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, 2023, U.S. stock markets were closed for a holiday, but futures indicated a downward trend, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% [2]. - European stock indices also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Prices - Spot gold prices surged by 2% to reach $4,690.88 per ounce, currently reported at $4,675.76 per ounce [6]. - Spot silver prices increased by over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, currently reported at $94.479 per ounce [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Economists warn that if President Trump rapidly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP potentially declining by 0.3% to 0.75% [10]. - According to the World Bank, if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [11]. - The Chief Economist at Capital Economics, Paul Dales, noted that the UK economy is currently growing at only 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [12]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump, marking a rare public statement of support for Cook [13]. - Powell previously indicated that the Trump administration had issued subpoenas to the Fed and threatened criminal charges, which he described as a pretext to force significant interest rate cuts [13]. - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95% [13].

Group 1 - Germany's GDP for Q4 2025 shows a preliminary quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%, indicating a mild recovery from a previous economic stagnation [1] - The German economy is projected to grow by 0.2% for the entire year of 2025, following two consecutive years of negative growth [1] - The German central bank has indicated that the economy has been in recession since the end of 2022, dampening expectations for a rapid recovery [1] Group 2 - Industrial output in Germany increased by 0.8% in November, driven by a recovery in automobile production, exceeding market expectations [1] - Analysts suggest that the preliminary GDP estimate for Q4 may be underestimated due to missing December data and limited November service sector data [2] - The German government’s fiscal stimulus measures are beginning to show effects, with a shift towards domestic demand expected to drive recovery [2] Group 3 - Germany's exports are facing challenges, with a projected decline of 0.3% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of decline due to factors like tariffs and euro appreciation [2] - The government is planning a large-scale investment program funded by debt, aimed at boosting economic growth through significant investments in infrastructure and defense [2] - The German economy ministry anticipates stabilization in economic development at the beginning of the year, with gradual momentum expected throughout the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% in 2025, marking the end of two consecutive years of economic contraction [1] Economic Performance - The growth is primarily attributed to increased household and government consumption expenditures [1] - Household consumption expenditure is expected to rise by 1.4%, while government consumption expenditure is projected to increase by 1.5% [1] Trade and Exports - Exports are anticipated to decline by 0.3% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of decline, influenced by factors such as increased tariffs from the U.S. and a stronger euro [1] - Imports are expected to grow by 3.6% [1] Industry Insights - The manufacturing sector's value added is projected to decrease by 1.3%, continuing a three-year trend of contraction, with significant declines in the automotive and machinery manufacturing sectors [1] Employment - The number of employed individuals in Germany is expected to remain stable at approximately 46 million, showing no significant change from the previous year [1]