经济衰退

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Stocks Rise, Gold Hits Record As Rate Cuts And Shutdown Loom
International Business Times· 2025-09-30 02:48
Market Overview - Equities experienced a rally for a second consecutive day, while gold reached a record high due to growing optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation is that the Fed will lower borrowing costs twice more this year, following a recent cut for the first time since December [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market readings, including job openings, private hiring, and non-farm payrolls, are anticipated to show a slowdown, providing the Fed with justification to ease monetary policy [2] - Concerns exist that a potential US government shutdown could delay the release of these key economic figures [2] Political Landscape - Congressional leaders met with President Trump to negotiate funding, but significant differences remain, indicating a possible government shutdown [3] - The political divide is deepening, with accusations exchanged between parties regarding funding demands and the implications for the American public [3] Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historically, government shutdowns have minimal impact on markets, typically lasting around eight days, but there are concerns that this time could be different due to deep political divisions [4] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to serious consequences for stocks, as evidenced by the 14% drop in the S&P 500 during the 35-day shutdown from 2018-2019 [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to nearly $3,852, with speculation that it could soon reach $4,000, reflecting a nearly 50% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a key asset amid political and policy uncertainties, rather than just a hedge against inflation [7] Company News - Zijin Mining Group's international spin-off, Zijin Gold International, saw its stock price soar by 66% on its Hong Kong debut, raising over $3 billion in its IPO [8] - The surge in gold companies' stock prices is attributed to increased demand for gold amid market volatility [8] Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and Shanghai indices rising, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline [9] - Oil prices fell due to concerns over a potential glut, as OPEC+ discussions about increasing output in November continue [8]
全球经济-最糟糕的时期是否已过-Global Economic Briefing-The Weekly Worldview Is the worst over
2025-09-30 02:22
September 29, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing M Global Idea The Weekly Worldview: Is the worst over? Six months after Liberation Day, we take stock of the effects of tariffs on trade and economic activity in different regions. M The coming week will mark six months since April 2, when the US imposed broad, global tariffs, pushing these taxes to their highest level since the 1930s. Uncertainty about policy has receded from the April peaks, but it is not gone given the deals, escalations, and legal ...
经济韧性降低衰退风险,高盛称美股应"逢跌买入"直至年末
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-29 12:18
这一看涨立场呼应了当前的市场乐观情绪。得益于市场对美联储及时降息以避免经济衰退的预期,以及人工智能热潮对科技巨头的提振,全球股 市此前已攀升至历史新高。 与此同时,高盛将信贷评级从中性下调至减持,但保持对股票12个月的看涨建议。该机构认为,虽然股票估值可能超出当前水平,但这对信贷构 成约束。 宽松政策支撑看涨前景 高盛策略师团队基于美国经济韧性、支撑性估值水平以及美联储鸽派转向,预计全球股市有望在年末前延续涨势,并建议投资者对股票采取"逢跌 买入"策略。 在最新发布的报告中,策略师将美股评级在三个月期限内上调至增持,理由包括良好的盈利增长、美联储在无衰退情况下的宽松政策以及全球财 政政策放松。高盛策略师认为,在政策支持强劲的后周期经济放缓阶段,股票资产通常表现良好。 此外,该团队还维持了对股票未来12个月的看涨建议。对于信贷资产,高盛则认为,尽管短期承压,但从12个月的维度看,由于衰退风险相对较 低以及有利的供需格局,其悲观程度有所降低。 风险犹存,强调多元化配置 尽管发布了看涨的短期建议,但高盛团队也警告称,市场并非没有风险。他们指出,短期内经济增长或利率出现意外冲击的风险依然存在,投资 者需保持警惕。 高 ...
标普500指数创月余最长连跌纪录
财富FORTUNE· 2025-09-28 13:04
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline for the third consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.5%, marking its longest losing streak in over a month [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 173 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite also fell by 0.5% [2] - Despite the recent declines, all three major indices remain close to their historical highs set earlier in the week [2] Economic Indicators - Reports indicate that the U.S. economy may be stronger than economists had anticipated, which could reduce the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months [2] - The Federal Reserve recently implemented its first interest rate cut of the year, with expectations for more cuts by the end of next year [2] - Stronger-than-expected economic performance may alleviate the Fed's urgency to cut rates, especially given the existing inflation risks [2] Company Performance - CarMax's stock plummeted by 20.1% after reporting quarterly profits below analyst expectations, with a decline in vehicle sales compared to the previous year [4] - Jabil's stock fell by 6.7% despite reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, attributed to demand from artificial intelligence [4] - Oracle's stock decreased by 5.6% after a significant rise earlier in the month due to announcements of large AI contracts [5] - Starbucks' stock slightly declined by 0.5% following the announcement of a $1 billion restructuring plan, which includes store closures and job cuts [5] - IBM's stock rose by 5.2% after HSBC announced a promising quantum computing trial with the company [5] Sector Trends - The bond market saw a slight increase in Treasury yields as traders reduced bets on future interest rate cuts by the Fed, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 4.16% to 4.17% [4] - The housing sector showed signs of optimism, with KB Home's stock fluctuating after reporting quarterly profits above analyst expectations, driven by declining mortgage rates [6]
Recession seems far off — that's the good news. Yet the economy is also far from trouble-free.
MarketWatch· 2025-09-27 13:00
Enough trouble spots emerged in the U.S. economy to coax the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last week — but it turns out the news isn't all that bad. ...
经济衰退担忧提振避险需求,黄金白银在高点附近盘整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 15:00
【华通白银网9月26日讯】卡斯货运指数(Cass Freight Index)在2025年8月跌至1.017,为过去10年的最低水平之一。由于整个制造业和 零售业的需求疲软,货运量继续下降。 下图显示,这种急剧下降与2008年和2020年经济衰退期间的情况相似。表明经济收缩,商业活动减少。货运指数走弱反映出GDP增速放 缓和信贷环境收紧。 这些数据支撑看涨黄金的观点。货运量的下降预示着潜在的经济衰退。经济疲软增加了美联储进一步降息的可能性。利率下降和不确定 性上升推动了对黄金的需求。随着工业活动放缓,投资者越来越多地转向保值。脆弱的货运市场加强了黄金和白银价格在2025年第四季 度的积极前景。 金价创下3791美元的历史新高,随后回落以建立新的支撑。突破这一水平可能会引发下一波向4000美元的上涨。 黄金技术分析 黄金日线图-看涨盘整 现货金的日线图显示,金价触及3791美元的纪录高位,目前正在高位盘整。在3600美元关口上方的盘整表明,黄金将继续看涨,一旦支 撑位得到确认,该货币对可能会转向上行。 在纪录高位附近的停顿也反映了极度超买的情况,预示着在下一次上涨之前可能出现短期回调。强劲支撑位仍在3,600- ...
对冲基金大佬艾因霍恩:万亿AI投资过于“极端”,回报率堪忧
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 06:58
他还重申了长期以来的观点,即市场从根本上已经崩溃,这种状况已经破坏了投资流程本身。 艾因霍恩在人工智能的长期重要性与投入资金的即时经济效益之间划出了一条清晰的界线。他表示,许 多项目将会落地,但投资者可能无法获得他们所预期的回报。 艾因霍恩还对其他领域发表评论。他指出,美国就业增长疲软和生产力停滞不前是经济衰退可能即将来 临的迹象。 他表示:"我更倾向于认为我们正在走向或已经陷入衰退。就业岗位没有增长,每周工作时间正在缩 短,生产率也不高。" 智通财经APP获悉,对冲基金经理、绿光资本创始人大卫·艾因霍恩警告称,即使人工智能(AI)技术本身 具有变革性,但如此大规模的人工智能基础设施建设投入仍可能导致大量资本损失。他表示,苹果 (AAPL.US)、Meta Platforms(META.US)和OpenAI等公司总计投入数万亿美元过于极端,最终的回报高 度不确定。尽管他预计人工智能的发展最终将超越当前的乐观预测,但他也质疑"每年投入10000亿美元 或5000亿美元"是否能为这些进行投资的公司带来良好的回报。 艾因霍恩表示:"现在到处流传的数字太过极端,真的很难让人理解。虽然我确信不会归零,但很有可 能本轮周 ...
08年预警次贷危机“一战成名”,明星对冲基金经理Einhorn警告:AI投入将产生“巨额”资本损失
美股IPO· 2025-09-26 03:38
Core Viewpoint - David Einhorn warns that the extreme capital expenditures by major tech companies in AI may lead to significant capital destruction despite potential long-term benefits [2][3][6] Group 1: AI Investment Concerns - Major tech companies like Apple, Meta, and OpenAI are committing trillions of dollars to AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the sustainability and rationality of such investments [3][5] - Einhorn questions whether the current scale of AI investments is reasonable, stating that the figures are so extreme that they are difficult to comprehend [6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Einhorn highlights weak job growth and stagnant productivity as indicators that a recession may be on the horizon [2][3] - He reiterates long-term concerns about structural issues in the market, suggesting that fundamental flaws in market mechanisms are eroding the investment process itself [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context of Warnings - Einhorn's warnings are taken seriously due to his past success in predicting the 2008 financial crisis, where he accurately identified issues with Lehman Brothers' balance sheet [7][9] - His reputation was built on making a successful bet against high-risk financial stocks during the market collapse, leading to superior performance for his fund [8][9]
对冲基金大佬“泼冷水”:AI支出过于极端,恐带来巨大资本损失
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-26 03:07
华尔街对冲基金大佬、绿光资本(Greenlight Capital)的创始人兼总裁大卫·艾因霍恩(David Einhorn) 周四警告称,在人工智能(AI)基础设施上的空前支出可能会摧毁大量资本,即使这项技术本身被证 明具有变革性。 此前,高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的季度AI采用跟踪报告中指出,虽然AI投资持续加速,但大 公司的AI采用率开始放缓。Hatzius表示,今年第三季度,美国企业的AI采用率为9.7%,高于第二季度 的9.2%,但AI采用增长率有所放缓。 艾因霍恩解释称,苹果公司、Meta平台和OpenAI等公司总计投入了数万亿美元的投资,这是如此极 端,以至于最终的回报高度不确定。 麻省理工学院的一项研究还发现,95%的组织在人工智能投资上没有获得回报,而奥尔特曼近日在接受 采访时也表示,投资者可能对人工智能过于兴奋。 虽然他预计人工智能最终带来的回报将超过今天的乐观预测,但他同时质疑"每年花费1万亿美元或5000 亿美元"是否会为进行这些投资的公司带来良好的结果。 今年2月,苹果表示,计划未来四年在美国国内投资5,000亿美元,重点布局人工智能、芯片工程、数据 中心建设及先进 ...
全国用电量再破万亿千瓦时,外卖平台新规征求意见 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-09-25 00:29
Economic Indicators - In September, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 52, while the services PMI dropped to 53.9, indicating a slight slowdown in economic expansion [2] - The composite PMI also decreased to 53.6, marking the lowest level since June 2025, with new orders and employment indices declining [2] - Despite the slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may help prevent a recession [3] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China has released a draft for public consultation on the basic requirements for food delivery platforms, focusing on service management and fee transparency [4] - The draft aims to regulate platform fees and promotional behaviors to prevent unfair competition and ensure food safety [4][5] Energy Consumption - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with the manufacturing sector showing the highest growth at 5.5% [6] - The electricity demand growth reflects a robust economic recovery, although supply challenges remain due to mismatches in demand and supply timing [7] Computing Industry Initiatives - Hubei Province plans to develop a computing industry cluster, aiming for a total computing power of 25 EFLOPS by 2027, with a focus on integrating computing with optical communication and chip industries [8] - The measures encourage the development of a diverse computing infrastructure and aim to avoid homogeneous competition among cities [9] Labor Market Concerns - A survey indicates that 24% of young employees in the US and Europe are very concerned about potential job loss due to AI, compared to only 10% of older workers [10] - The rise of AI technology presents both challenges and opportunities for young workers, who may leverage AI to enhance their skills and productivity [11] Agricultural Sector Trends - The price of live pigs has dropped significantly, with a 10.4% decrease from early September and a 24.4% decline from the peak in February, reflecting an oversupply in the market [12] - Despite short-term measures to control production, the long-term outlook for the pig farming industry suggests a need for reduced production capacity to balance supply and demand [13] Stock Market Performance - On September 24, the stock market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high [14] - The semiconductor sector continued to perform strongly, driven by developments in AI and chip demand, while consumer sectors like tourism showed weakness [15]