Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver is expected to follow and rise [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook, while the trend strength of silver is -1, indicating a relatively negative outlook [5] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various gold and silver futures and spot contracts are presented, including沪金2506, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2506, 伦敦金现货, 沪银2506, 白银T+D, Comex白银2506, and 伦敦银现货 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts, as well as their changes compared to the previous day, are provided [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: The holdings of SPDR黄金ETF and SLV白银ETF, as well as the inventory of沪金, Comex黄金, 沪银, and Comex白银, and their changes compared to the previous day, are presented [2] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads, such as the spread between 黄金T+D and AU2506, the spread between 沪金2506 and 2512 contracts, and the cross - period arbitrage costs, are provided [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar index, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY and CNH), the euro against the US dollar, the US dollar against the Japanese yen, and the British pound against the US dollar, as well as their changes compared to the previous day, are presented [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The Trump tax cut bill narrowly passed in the House of Representatives, and the Fed's influential governor Waller believes that the tax cut bill will trigger the selling of US Treasury bonds. If tariffs stabilize, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of the year [2][4] - The US has suspended Harvard University's qualification to recruit international students [6] - The US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI both exceeded expectations and expanded, while the eurozone May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service industry had its worst performance in 16 months [6] - After the meeting between the US and Japanese finance ministers, the US stated that they did not discuss exchange rates, and the current exchange rate reflects the fundamentals, while Japan stated that they did not discuss US Treasury bonds [6] - OPEC+ is discussing a significant production increase in July, and Saudi Arabia is punishing "quota traitors" [6] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of gold is 1, and the trend strength of silver is -1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28% [1][3] - The approval of Trump's tax reform plan by the House of Representatives raised concerns about increasing U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to selling pressure in the long-term U.S. Treasury market [1][8] Treasury Yields - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached approximately 5.15%, marking a new high since October 2023, before retreating during the trading session [8][10] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields may exacerbate market concerns regarding the economy, as these rates serve as benchmarks for consumer loans such as mortgages [10] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index increasing by 0.6%. Notable individual stock performances included Tesla up nearly 2%, Google up over 1%, and Amazon up nearly 1% [5] - Bank stocks generally rose, with Goldman Sachs up 0.77% and Morgan Stanley up 0.76%, while energy stocks fell across the board, with ExxonMobil down 0.68% and Chevron down 0.21% [7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.18% and notable drops in stocks like Xpeng Motors down over 7% [7] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell, with London gold down 0.6% to $3,294.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.56% to $3,295.10 per ounce [12] - International oil prices also continued to decline, with WTI crude futures down 1.23% and ICE Brent crude down 1.29% [13]

特朗普已对数十个美国贸易伙伴实施了10%的基础关税，并暂时搁置了征收更高关税的计划。他还对许 多中国进口商品加征了30%的关税，此前对中国商品征收的关税甚至曾超过100%。 尽管近期对华关税有所缓解，经济学家普遍预计特朗普的贸易政策将抑制经济增长，并推高通胀水平。 沃勒重申，他预计与关税相关的通胀上行将是暂时的。 他指出，如果政府恢复更高水平的关税，将"对通胀造成更大影响，并大大限制我们对短期利率的调整 空间"。 沃勒的讲话是在特朗普标志性的减税法案以微弱优势在众议院获得通过后不久发表的。该法案接下来将 提交参议院审议，内容包括延续特朗普第一任期的减税政策、提高美国债务上限，并进一步增加联邦财 政赤字。 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四表示，如果特朗普政府对美国贸易伙伴征收的关税维持在约10%的水 平，美联储可能在2025年下半年开始降息。 沃勒周四在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："如果我们能将关税降到接近10%，并且在7月前尘埃落 定、彻底落实，那么下半年我们就处于一个不错的位置。" 他补充道："那美联储就有良好条件，在下半年进行一系列降息行动。" 由于整体经济表现稳健，以及对特朗普关税政策的不确定性，美联储 ...

当地时间5月22日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指基本持平，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳指涨0.28%。 美国众议院以微弱票数批准特朗普税改方案后，市场忧虑美国财政赤字风险上升。受此影响，美国长期国债市场面临抛售压力，30年期国债收益率持续上 行，创下自2023年10月以来新高。 美股三大指数走势分化 美国国债收益率大幅攀升 当地时间周四，美股三大指数走势分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指基本收平，报41859.09点；标普500指数跌0.04%，报5842.01点；纳指涨0.28%， 报18925.73点。 板块方面，大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉涨近2%，谷歌涨逾1%，亚马逊涨近1%，英伟达涨0.78%，微软涨 0.51%，脸书涨0.17%，苹果跌0.36%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通跌0.14%，高盛涨0.77%，花旗跌0.03%，摩根士丹利涨0.76%，美国银行涨0.12%，富国银行涨0.2%。 能源股全线走低，埃克森美孚跌0.68%，雪佛龙跌0.21%，康菲石油跌超1%，斯伦贝谢跌0.38%，西方石油跌0.15%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1. ...

美国霸道再上一层楼，竟然威逼国际金融机构，只为给中国下绊子，阴谋能够成功吗？ 日前，美债收益率集体大涨，各期限美债收益率都超过了4%。一般来讲，美债收益率暴涨，很可能和美债遭到市场抛售有关，4月美债收益率曾一度激增， 当时日本就有媒体称很可能是因为特朗普政府的关税政策，促使中国大幅减持美债，反制美国。但中方还没表态，美国就有媒体宣称，美债的确遭到了抛 售，但不是中国在抛，是谁呢？恰恰是暗戳戳把火往中国身上引的日本。吓的日方连忙跑出来辩解，称自己不会用抛售美债来针对美国。 相比于美国满世界挑起动荡不安甚至制造战火的行径，中国秉持开放和包容的姿态，为常年被迫沦为美国"后花园"甚至"垃圾堆"的拉美国家带来发展的契 机，主动提出合作，拉美国家高兴还来不及。就在日前，巴西总统卢拉还高调访华，可见当下很多拉美国家对中国是欢迎之至的。然而现在美方因为害怕中 方发展超过自己，加上担心以后不能将拉美当"后花园"了，就不许国际金融机构为中企提供贷款，可谓把美国自私自利、恶人先告状的本质暴露的淋漓尽 致。 可笑的是，美国这回通告全球，强行对华使绊子，然而中方还未出手，没料到美债就先崩了，显示如今的美国，正面临一大堆现实问题，甚至可 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5%, attributed to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aa3 to Aa1, leading to market concerns over U.S. fiscal stability [1] - The U.S. government is pushing for a tax reform bill that aims to extend significant tax cuts from Trump's first term, potentially reducing taxes by over $4 trillion and cutting at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which is expected to further impact U.S. Treasury sales [2] - The combination of tariff and tax policies is raising concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, prompting investors to express their apprehensions through the sale of U.S. Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are leading sovereign funds and large investors to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which could raise U.S. financing costs and exacerbate the fiscal deficit [3] - Japan, as the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, is experiencing a rapid rise in its own bond yields, indicating a potential loss of confidence in both U.S. and Japanese government bonds, which could destabilize the global safe-haven asset market [3] - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the U.S. and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant repercussions for global capital markets and real economies, potentially affecting external demand and exports from countries like China [4]

Group 1 - The announcement of reciprocal tariff policies has led to increased uncertainty in international trade, causing a decline in investor confidence in the U.S. government and a "sell-off" in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% [1][4][19] - The sell-off primarily involved long-term Treasuries, particularly those with maturities of five years or more, while short-term Treasury yields remained stable [1][4][6] - Non-official investors, including overseas and domestic investors, are likely responsible for the sell-off, with significant outflows from Japanese residents and large redemptions from U.S. bond funds [6][8][11] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's monthly cumulative deficit reached a new high since the 2022 fiscal year, indicating that future fiscal deficits may be difficult to improve if current spending structures remain unchanged [2][20] - The supply of Treasuries is currently constrained by the debt ceiling, with the Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance expected to be exhausted by August [2][24] - Long-term projections suggest that U.S. debt levels are unlikely to decrease, with ongoing discussions about tax cuts and debt ceiling increases potentially leading to higher future Treasury supply [20][26][27] Group 3 - Despite the recent sell-off, there is potential for U.S. Treasuries to strengthen if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, which could lead to a decline in overall Treasury yields [3][29][30] - The current depreciation of the dollar makes Treasuries relatively "cheap," and the Fed's actions could improve market confidence in the U.S. economy, further supporting the Treasury market [30][31] - Short-term Treasuries may outperform due to rising term premiums and increased supply of long-term bonds, which could steepen the yield curve [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and prices, highlighting the complex interplay between market dynamics, investor sentiment, and government policies, particularly under the Trump administration. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields had risen sharply, with the 30-year yield exceeding 5% and the 10-year yield reaching 4.50%, indicating a sell-off in the bond market [1][3] - The relationship between bond prices and yields is inverse; rising yields typically lead to falling prices due to supply and demand dynamics [1][3] - A significant factor in the recent sell-off was the forced liquidation by funds engaged in basis trading, which exacerbated the downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Government Influence - Despite the traditional view of U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, recent events have led to a decline in confidence in U.S. assets, influenced by trade tensions and political pressures on the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The Trump administration's strategies, including tariff policies and public pressure on the Fed, have created a perception of instability, impacting market confidence [4][5] Group 3: Implications of Rising Yields - Rising Treasury yields increase the cost of new debt issuance for the U.S. government, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of increasing debt burdens [6] - The Trump administration has initiated measures to stabilize the market, including tariff adjustments and reassurances regarding the Fed's independence [6][7] Group 4: Changing Perception of U.S. Treasuries - The risk premium on U.S. Treasuries is increasing, with the market beginning to view them as risk assets rather than risk-free assets, primarily due to concerns over U.S. debt levels and the dollar's credibility [8][10] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with projections indicating that interest payments could exceed $1.2 trillion by 2026, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [8][10] Group 5: Future Outlook and Alternatives - As confidence in U.S. Treasuries wanes, investors may shift towards alternative assets such as gold and non-U.S. currencies, potentially leading to a further decline in the dollar's share of global reserves [13][14] - The article suggests that while the risk of a direct default on U.S. debt is low, the ongoing price volatility and market sentiment could pose significant challenges for investors [14][15]

文/美好 说实话特朗普当初挑起关税大战，本以为能让美国在经济上占据更大优势，可没想到却搬起石头砸了自 己的脚，让美元霸权进一步瓦解，也让美国经济陷入了困境。 美债市场迎来了20年来最惨的抛售潮，各国纷纷减持美债，尤其是我国一口气减持了573亿美元，创下 了新低！这背后究竟隐藏着怎样的经济信号？美元的霸主地位是否岌岌可危？ 美债遭遇20年来最惨抛售 美债市场迎来了前所未有的抛售潮。日本、英国等主要债主纷纷减持美债，其中我国的减持规模最大， 达到573亿美元，创下自2009年以来的最低水平。美债的惨淡行情直接导致其收益率大幅上升，这在以 往是抛售股票和转向债券的投资者所必需的避险行为，如今却变成了美债抛售的主要原因。显然，投资 者对美国经济已经失去了信心。 人民币国际化进程加速 与各国减持美债形成鲜明对比的是人民币的崛起。2024年中俄之间的能源贸易中，人民币结算比例已经 接近50%。东盟国家与我国之间的跨境人民币支付更是暴增了37%，这一切都在表明，人民币正在逐步 取代美元，成为各国眼中的新宠。 人民币的国际化进程并不是凭空发生的，它背后有我国经济实力的支撑，同时也离不开政策的推动和市 场需求的配合。近年来，我 ...