Group 1: Global Currency System and Dollar Status - The recent sell-off of dollar assets is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, and despite a decline in trust, the dollar's dominant position in the global currency system remains difficult to challenge [4] - New currencies like the euro, renminbi, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are unlikely to gain widespread acceptance in the short term, as the formation of reserve currencies requires long-term accumulation of national economic strength [4] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global currency system requires significant changes in the economic field, which is still a distant goal [4] Group 2: Development of Digital Renminbi - Public acceptance of digital renminbi depends on its advantages over existing payment methods; without unique benefits, it may struggle to gain popularity [5] - The success of digital renminbi in international markets faces challenges similar to those in China, where entrenched payment methods like credit cards hinder the adoption of alternatives [5] - Market forces should drive the development of digital renminbi, with widespread adoption occurring only when businesses find it more convenient and cost-effective than traditional banking [5] Group 3: Internationalization of Renminbi - The path to renminbi internationalization is long and challenging, with non-convertibility and strict capital controls being the main obstacles [7] - Despite China's significant role in global trade, the current economic environment is not conducive to opening capital accounts and achieving full convertibility of the renminbi [7] - Long-term, as China's economy continues to develop, issues surrounding renminbi convertibility and capital flow will gradually be resolved, leading to its important position in the global currency system [7]

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed the need for a restructured global financial system in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainties and the importance of multilateralism to address global challenges [5][10][12]. Group 1: Global Financial Cooperation - The forum featured discussions among experts on the importance of multilateralism and the need for a diversified global financial order to address current challenges [3][5]. - Lord Mark Malloch-Brown emphasized the crisis in international order due to unilateral actions by the U.S. and the need for countries like China and Europe to actively promote multilateralism [5]. - Erik Berglof highlighted the necessity for a new multilateralism that reflects the current geopolitical landscape, advocating for cooperation between Europe and developing countries [8]. Group 2: Economic Imbalances and Domestic Demand - Professor Shi Kang pointed out that addressing global economic imbalances requires multilateral coordination and that China should focus on domestic demand rather than relying solely on external markets [10]. - The need for China to stimulate domestic consumption and create demand was emphasized as a key task for 2025, alongside the importance of economic reforms and industry upgrades [10]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Financial Stability - Massimiliano Castelli discussed the potential for the euro and renminbi to gain prominence as global reserve currencies, while the dollar remains the primary safe-haven asset [12]. - The discussion included the gradual reduction of dollar asset holdings by global central banks and institutional investors, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [12]. - Marc Uzan stressed the importance of regional cooperation and the establishment of new rules in rebuilding the international financial system [15].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Knot stated that the dollar remains irreplaceable in many functions, and the prospect of undermining the dollar's status is still far off [1] Group 1 - The dollar's dominance in global finance is emphasized, indicating its critical role in various economic functions [1] - The statement suggests that any potential shift away from the dollar's supremacy is not imminent, reinforcing the current financial landscape [1]

【环球时报特约记者 甄翔】从比尔·盖茨到蒂姆·库克，再到摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，连日来， 美国的科技巨头、华尔街精英纷纷对巴菲特决定今年年底前卸任以及对关税冲突的批评做出回应。当地 时间3日，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州举行。该年会是分析经济形 势、盘点市场走势的重要年度经济活动。此次年会正值全球经济受关税政策影响增长乏力之际，因而尤 为受到关注。现年94岁的巴菲特在年会收官讲话中正式宣布他将于年底卸任公司首席执行官，届时他的 副手阿贝尔将成为公司新的掌舵人。同时，他罕见地对当前的关税冲突提出批评，并对美国政府的赤字 和美元地位表示担忧。 巴菲特年底卸任的消息引发多方关注。巴菲特于1965年收购了当时还是一家纺织厂的伯克希尔·哈撒 韦，并在几十年间将公司打造为一个横跨多个产业、总资产高达万亿美元的巨头。在巴菲特掌舵下，伯 克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的年化收益率基本是标普500指数的两倍，而其本人也由此被称为"股神"。 巴菲特在年会上发声，明确表示"贸易不应该成为武器"，针对全世界征收惩罚性关税是"重大错误"。美 国全国公共广播电台（NPR）3日报道称，巴菲特是否会就贸易冲突及其 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank reports that despite a recent market recovery, foreign investors remain cautious about U.S. assets, with a significant slowdown in capital inflows observed over the past two months [1][4] - The report indicates that the capital inflow into the U.S. is either rapidly slowing down or experiencing a substantial reduction in investment, posing challenges to the dollar's status as a dual-deficit currency [1][4] - Historically, the U.S. has been a strong magnet for foreign capital, but recent trends suggest a potential shift, with concerns about a mass withdrawal of foreign investors from the U.S. market following trade policy announcements [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights a notable trend of sustained selling in ETFs, with investors pulling back from both equity and bond markets, indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. assets [5] - Deutsche Bank's strategist has revised the dollar forecast downward, attributing this to weakened foreign investor willingness to finance U.S. trade and budget deficits due to current economic policies [5] - Predictions suggest that by 2027, the euro to dollar exchange rate may rise from approximately 1.14 to 1.30, while the dollar to yen rate could decrease from about 142 to 115 [5]

美国向各国滥施关税，是典型的单边主义、保护主义和经济霸凌行径。美方此举不仅严重冲击国际经济 和贸易秩序，拖累全球经济增长，也严重打击自身经济。连日来，从国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界 银行春季会议会场，到美国各大超市，都笼罩在关税阴云下。多国经济界人士对美国滥施关税进行强烈 批评。 "对全球经济的一次重大负面冲击" 日前，IMF发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。报告指出，美国政府4月2日宣布了几乎适用所有贸易伙伴的关税，将实际关税 水平推升至一个世纪以来最高水平。这些措施本身就是"对全球经济的一次重大负面冲击"，其实施过程 中的不确定性也对经济活动和经济前景产生负面影响。 报告显示，2025年发达经济体增速预计为1.4%，新兴市场和发展中经济体增速为3.7%，均较1月预测值 下调0.5个百分点。其中，美国经济增速将放缓至1.8%，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济体中 下调幅度最大。政策不确定性加剧、贸易紧张局势以及需求势头减弱是下调美国经济增长预期的主要原 因。 报告预计2026年全球经济增速为3%，低于1月预测的3.3 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利周二表示，现在要确定美国总统特朗普的关税政策以及其对通胀和经济 的预期影响，进而判断短期借贷成本需要如何调整，还为时尚早。这一观点得到了他的同事们的广泛认 同，很可能会使美联储在两周后的利率设定会议上维持利率不变。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储主席说，他将密切关注劳动力市场数据，看看目前的不确定性是否有迹象导致企 业缩减规模并裁员。他说，目前还没有迹象表明大规模裁员。 当被问及特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息的问题时，卡什卡利表示，货币政策的独立性是美国 经济成功的"基石"。他反驳了特朗普及其政府其他官员的说法，即美联储是出于政治原因而做出政策决 定。 卡什卡利指出，在民主党总统奥巴马的第二个任期以及特朗普的第一个任期内，他支持较为宽松的货币 政策；在拜登任期内，他变得较为鹰派；而现在在政策立场上 "可能处于中间派"。 "我从鸽派转变为鹰派，再转变为温和派，这是因为政治原因吗？不是，这是因为经济环境在变化，数 据也在变化。"他说。 卡什卡利在华盛顿举行的美国商会全球峰会上表示："现在就判断利率的走势将会如何还为时过早。" 他表示，虽然仅关税本身不太可能让通胀再次加速，这种说法是"合乎逻 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]