Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which alleviates concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [1][2][10] - The unemployment rate for May stands at 4.2%, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month [3][15] - The report indicates a continued upward trend in employment in healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [7][14] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, with the average hourly wage reaching $36.24 [8][14] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [1][11] - The report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.51% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the unemployment rate in the United States has increased, reaching its highest level since October 2021, indicating a potential trend of rising unemployment [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in May rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [1] - The highest unemployment rate recorded last year was 4.231% in November 2024 [1] - The current unemployment rate of 4.244% is the highest since October 2021, when it was 4.500% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated unemployment rate for the United States in May is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, according to multiple financial institutions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - ANZ Bank predicts an unemployment rate of 4.2% [1] - Societe Generale forecasts 4.2% [1] - Daiwa Capital also estimates 4.2% [1] - Bank of America projects 4.2% [1] - Montreal Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs expects 4.2% [1] - HSBC forecasts 4.2% [1] - Capital Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Empire State Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - JPMorgan Chase expects 4.2% [1] - Moody's Analytics forecasts 4.2% [1] - ING predicts 4.2% [1] - Barclays Bank estimates 4.2% [1] - Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipates 4.2% [1] - Nomura Securities forecasts 4.2% [1] - Oxford Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Danske Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Morgan Stanley expects 4.2% [1] - Rabobank forecasts 4.2% [1] - Scotiabank estimates 4.2% [1] - Société Générale anticipates 4.2% [1] - Lloyds Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation estimates 4.2% [1] - Wells Fargo expects 4.2% [1] - Standard Chartered forecasts 4.2% [1] - TD Securities estimates 4.2% [1] - Westpac Banking Corporation anticipates 4.2% [1] - Citigroup predicts 4.3% [1] - Mizuho Securities estimates 4.3% [1] - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts 4.3% [1] - UBS Group predicts 4.3% [1] - Deutsche Bank estimates 4.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, indicating a strong labor market despite economic uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, emphasized that the current unemployment rate is a sign of resilience in the U.S. economy [1] - The labor market's strength is crucial for economic stability and growth, as it supports consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current unemployment rate is significantly lower than levels seen during previous economic downturns [1]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

美联储理事库格勒表示，美国通胀和失业率都存在上行风险。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change in 2023 [1] - The Fed will continue its plan to passively reduce its holdings of Treasury securities by up to $50 billion per month and maintain the $35 billion in agency bonds [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices and the dollar index initially fell but later experienced slight increases, while gold prices decreased [1] Group 2 - The Fed acknowledged an increased risk of rising unemployment and inflation in its latest meeting statement, indicating greater uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that high unemployment and inflation risks have risen, although they have not yet appeared in the data [2] - The committee remains committed to supporting maximum employment and aims to restore inflation to a target level of 2% [2] Group 3 - Market expectations prior to the meeting indicated a high probability that the Fed would maintain its current stance, with a focus on potential rate cuts in response to tariff uncertainties [3] - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not feel pressured to cut rates but is prepared to act swiftly when appropriate, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach [4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate cuts in June, with the first potential cut expected in July, as the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [5][6]

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 4月美国非农就业数据超出市场预期。新增非农就业人数17.7万（市场预期13.8万），失业率4.2%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率62.6%（市场预期62.5%），平均时薪同比增速3.8%（市场预期3.9%）。 表1：美国非农就业人数稳步增长 | | 就业人数权重 | | 较上月变动(万人) | | 新增就业人数(万人) | | 近三个月均值(万人) | | 较上月变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025年4月 | 2025年3月 | 2025年2月 | | | | | 新增非农就业 | 100% | 3 | -0. 8 | 17.7 | 18.5 | 10. 2 | 15. 5 | | | | 修正幅度 | | | | | -1.8 | 1.6 | | | | | 私人部门 | 85. 20% | P | -0.3 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 10. 7 | 14.8 | + | -0. 1 | | 商品 | 13. 61% | 1 | 0.2 ...