Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a systematic and gradual weakening rather than a clear segmentation of inflation followed by stagnation, with increasing risks of non-farm payroll declines [1][8][37] - Recent economic data changes in the U.S. are not keeping pace with asset price fluctuations and macro narratives, indicating a divergence between hard and soft data [3][5] - The negative impacts of various non-tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident, contributing to the suppression of U.S. economic growth [5][8] Group 2 - The rate and potential magnitude of inflation are declining, with the U.S. CPI readings falling short of expectations for four consecutive months [9][11] - There is no significant inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors, and the demand-side weakness is likely to impose stronger price constraints [11][13] - Concerns about stagnation are rising as labor market data shows signs of weakening, despite stable non-farm employment figures [16][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to be the first to reflect the weakening of the U.S. economy, with signs of declining consumer willingness [27][28] - The structure of disposable income growth is unhealthy, with a significant portion coming from government welfare rather than labor income [29][33] - The overall consumption willingness is decreasing, which will further suppress service consumption levels [37]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which alleviates concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [1][2][10] - The unemployment rate for May stands at 4.2%, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month [3][15] - The report indicates a continued upward trend in employment in healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [7][14] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, with the average hourly wage reaching $36.24 [8][14] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [1][11] - The report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.51% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the unemployment rate in the United States has increased, reaching its highest level since October 2021, indicating a potential trend of rising unemployment [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in May rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [1] - The highest unemployment rate recorded last year was 4.231% in November 2024 [1] - The current unemployment rate of 4.244% is the highest since October 2021, when it was 4.500% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated unemployment rate for the United States in May is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, according to multiple financial institutions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - ANZ Bank predicts an unemployment rate of 4.2% [1] - Societe Generale forecasts 4.2% [1] - Daiwa Capital also estimates 4.2% [1] - Bank of America projects 4.2% [1] - Montreal Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs expects 4.2% [1] - HSBC forecasts 4.2% [1] - Capital Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Empire State Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - JPMorgan Chase expects 4.2% [1] - Moody's Analytics forecasts 4.2% [1] - ING predicts 4.2% [1] - Barclays Bank estimates 4.2% [1] - Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipates 4.2% [1] - Nomura Securities forecasts 4.2% [1] - Oxford Economics estimates 4.2% [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Danske Bank anticipates 4.2% [1] - Morgan Stanley expects 4.2% [1] - Rabobank forecasts 4.2% [1] - Scotiabank estimates 4.2% [1] - Société Générale anticipates 4.2% [1] - Lloyds Bank predicts 4.2% [1] - Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation estimates 4.2% [1] - Wells Fargo expects 4.2% [1] - Standard Chartered forecasts 4.2% [1] - TD Securities estimates 4.2% [1] - Westpac Banking Corporation anticipates 4.2% [1] - Citigroup predicts 4.3% [1] - Mizuho Securities estimates 4.3% [1] - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts 4.3% [1] - UBS Group predicts 4.3% [1] - Deutsche Bank estimates 4.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, indicating a strong labor market despite economic uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, emphasized that the current unemployment rate is a sign of resilience in the U.S. economy [1] - The labor market's strength is crucial for economic stability and growth, as it supports consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current unemployment rate is significantly lower than levels seen during previous economic downturns [1]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]