Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant drop in the US dollar and a surge in gold prices, with traders anticipating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut before September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices closed up $33.05, or 0.98%, at $3,371.51 per ounce following Powell's remarks [2]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data includes durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Despite the recent surge, gold has not yet broken the $3,400 per ounce resistance level; if it does, the next resistance levels are $3,452 (June 16 high) and $3,500 (historical high) [4]. - If gold prices retreat, support may be found at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, followed by the 20-day moving average at $3,345 and the 100-day moving average at $3,309 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of adjusting the monetary policy stance, interpreted by the market as a signal for potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid comprehensive policy changes this year, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation rates significantly down from post-pandemic highs [1]. - Inflationary risks have diminished, while risks to employment are increasing, allowing the Fed to act cautiously when considering policy adjustments [1][2]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The Fed released a revised statement on its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, returning to a flexible inflation targeting framework [1]. - The statement clarifies the Fed's approach during periods when employment and inflation goals do not align, emphasizing a balanced method to achieve dual mandate objectives [1]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with reports suggesting that his remarks paved the way for a potential restart of interest rate cuts [2]. - Market traders widely anticipate a reduction in the federal funds rate target range by at least 25 basis points in September, with the probability of such a cut rising to 89.1% [2]. Conference Significance - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is viewed as a significant platform for central banks to convey monetary policy signals, attracting global central bank leaders and economists [2].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Powell opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may require an adjustment in policy stance [1] - Labor market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels, with significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting rising downside risks to employment [1] - Inflation outlook: Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while long-term inflation expectations appear stable, with a focus on preventing one-time price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [1] Group 2 - Tariff impact: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are becoming clear, with expectations that this impact will continue to accumulate in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude remain highly uncertain [1] - Framework adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing references to pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term" and basing employment decisions on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential need for policy adjustments due to a shift in risk balance, highlighting a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and weakening consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current U.S. GDP growth is noticeably slowing, reflecting a decline in consumer spending [1] - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve will abandon the flexible average inflation targeting framework adopted in 2020, removing references to the effective lower bound on interest rates [1] - Powell stated that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance," with the policy interest rate at a moderately tight level [1] - The Fed is cautious in considering policy adjustments due to stable unemployment rates, aiming to prevent transient price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Following Powell's speech, traders estimated a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts before the end of the year [2]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped approximately 5 basis points to below 4.26%, with an overall decline of 7.4 basis points for the day [1] - Gold prices increased by 0.3%, reaching a new daily high and approaching $3,350 [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.3%, the Dow Jones gained 688 points with an increase exceeding 1.5%, and the Nasdaq climbed 265 points, up over 1.1% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a shift in risk balance may necessitate adjustments to policy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is nearing a decision on interest rate cuts due to signs of a softening job market and a lack of sustained inflation driven by tariffs [1][3] - Mary Daly indicated that while the Fed's short-term borrowing cost remains at 4.25%-4.50%, future meetings may consider policy adjustments, with a possibility of more than two rate cuts if the labor market continues to weaken [3][4] - Recent labor data showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July, with significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating potential challenges in the employment sector [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in July, but Daly emphasized that this does not reflect extreme weakness in the job market [4] - There is no evidence that tariff-induced price increases are broadly affecting inflation, and the Fed may risk acting too late if it waits too long to ensure this is the case [4] - Daly expressed that the current policy may increasingly misalign with economic conditions, suggesting a need for adjustments to maintain downward pressure on inflation while ensuring sustainable employment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decisions on the U.S. economy, highlighting his dual approach of aggressive monetary easing during the pandemic and subsequent interest rate hikes to combat inflation [1] Group 1: Powell's Leadership - Jerome Powell has served as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve for eight years, navigating through challenging economic conditions [1] - His decisive actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, including lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity, were crucial in stabilizing the U.S. economy [1] - Powell's strategy of "first aid, then inflation control" has not only stabilized the U.S. economy but also set a precedent for global economic policy responses [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The aggressive monetary policies implemented by Powell helped many businesses survive during the economic downturn caused by the pandemic [1] - The subsequent shift to raising interest rates was a necessary response to rising inflation, demonstrating Powell's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions [1] - Powell's leadership has reinforced the Federal Reserve's role as a stabilizing force in the economy, earning him recognition for his capability during turbulent times [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the official non-farm payroll data and the ADP private sector employment report indicates a complex situation in the U.S. labor market, raising questions about which data to trust [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1]. - The ADP report, however, showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1][2]. - The government sector added 73,000 jobs in June, accounting for nearly half of the total non-farm employment growth, with significant contributions from state and local education sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The private sector only added 74,000 jobs, with the goods-producing sector contributing a mere 6,000 jobs, while the service sector added 68,000 jobs, primarily in healthcare and social assistance [3]. - Analysts suggest that the unusual growth in government employment may be due to seasonal adjustment issues, particularly related to the school year [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Despite the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, this is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% in May to 62.3% in June [4]. - Over the past two months, household surveys indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs, while the labor force shrank by 755,000, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate [4]. - Analysts warn that if the anticipated rise in unemployment is concentrated in upcoming reports, it could pose dovish risks for Federal Reserve policy [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate may lead Federal Reserve officials to adopt a wait-and-see approach in their upcoming meetings, although a rate cut of 25 basis points is still expected to begin in September [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the situation is continuously evolving, and the Fed's approach is also being adjusted accordingly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is actively monitoring economic developments and is prepared to modify its strategies in response to changing conditions [1]