Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have reached a significant stage, with the departure of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting a potential consensus has been approached [1][3] - The involvement of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross, who was not part of the previous negotiations, signifies a shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy, incorporating export control issues into the discussions [3][7] - The negotiations lasted for 20 hours, resulting in a preliminary "basic trade framework," which both sides plan to present to their leaders for further action [4][5] Group 2 - The intense negotiation format, described as "marathon-style," has facilitated communication between the two parties, although it has not eliminated all differences [5][9] - China's firm stance against U.S. demands is expected, as they maintain a principle of "equality and mutual benefit," indicating readiness to resist unreasonable requests [7][9] - The upcoming expiration of the U.S. tariff grace period adds urgency to the negotiations, with the possibility of an extension to allow more time for agreement [9][11] Group 3 - The complexity of the U.S.-China trade talks is expected to increase, influenced by Mnuchin's exit, Ross's entry, and China's strong position, which will impact the final outcomes of the negotiations [11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent calls from multiple Federal Reserve officials for cautious interest rate cuts due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies may lead to long-term inflation, particularly affecting public inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Some economists and Fed officials believe that Trump's tariff policies will lead to rising inflation and unemployment, as well as slower economic growth [1] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed that the inflation caused by tariffs might be a one-time shock, suggesting potential rate cuts by the end of the year [1][3] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that it is too early to determine if the inflation impact from tariffs is temporary, complicating the Fed's assessment of future inflation trends [1][3] Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in April, a slowdown from 0.7% in March [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [3] - Some analysts believe that the better-than-expected inflation data may be interpreted by the Fed as a calm before a storm, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 3: Tariff Policy Implications - Trump's tariff policies have seen significant increases, with an average tariff rate on China reaching as high as 165% before being reduced to around 50% following a phase trade agreement [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff implementation has raised concerns about its long-term impact on inflation, as gradual policy changes may affect consumer and business behavior [4][5] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized the need for potential interest rate hikes to prevent rising inflation expectations, noting that trade policies are beginning to impact the economy [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The sustainability of tariff-induced inflation is contingent on the evolution of trade policies and their economic impact, with short-term effects already visible [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's policy adjustments will be cautious, closely monitoring economic data and the effects of tariff policies [7] - In the long run, as the economic impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, the necessity for Fed rate cuts may increase, leading to a more dovish policy stance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes that it is not the first time the U.S. government has requested adjustments to monetary policy, highlighting the Fed's accountability to the American public [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is underscored, indicating that it operates with a focus on the broader economic implications rather than direct governmental influence [1] - Daly's statement reflects the ongoing dialogue between the government and the Federal Reserve regarding economic policy adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Globally, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper mine port inventories are increasing, and domestic smelters' production is stable. The supply is slightly increasing due to sufficient domestic raw material supply and favorable copper prices. However, downstream consumption has limited room for improvement as copper prices are high, copper product processing plants have fewer new orders and lower operating rates, and buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may see a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,507 dollars/ton, down 26.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 153,061 lots, down 10,259 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,104 lots, up 1,294 lots. The LME copper inventory is 168,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 31,754 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,085 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,165 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 93 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 165 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 14.01 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 292.44 million tons per month, up 53.13 million tons. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,800 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,500 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan per month, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan per month, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.97%, down 1.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.99%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.99%, down 0.0117%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.85, down 0.046 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at lower prices" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with the month - on - month decline widening to 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, supporting automobile and home appliance consumption, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing. In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of global automobile sales. Two Fed officials emphasized patience in adjusting policies. The ECB warned of a potential "fundamental institutional change" due to Trump's tariff policies. China supported 33 least - developed African countries in using the zero - tariff policy, and the import volume from these countries reached 21.42 billion dollars from December 1 last year to March this year, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand, with the industry inventory steadily decreasing. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 3,216 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was - 9 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 203,373 lots, up 3,149 lots; for alumina, it was 373,044 lots, up 16,037 lots [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 66,175 tons, down 2,025 tons; the total alumina inventory was 251,154 tons, down 19,011 tons [2]. - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,475.50 US dollars/ton, down 5.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 388,900 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 9,333 lots, down 8,189 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.16, up 0.03 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum warrants in the SHFE were 58,422 tons, down 1,099 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 156,080 tons, down 13,585 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of A00 aluminum from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 20,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of alumina from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The aluminum premium/discount of Shanghai Material Trade was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 20,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount was 20,330 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of alumina was - 116 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73% [2]. - The alumina output was 732.30 tons, down 15.22 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 tons, down 30.02 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 tons, down 13.48 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume was 26.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 tons, down 0.05 tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 29.51 tons, up 33.55 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 55.50 tons, up 0.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. - The primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10% [2]. - The aluminum product output was 576.40 tons, down 21.77 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy output was 152.80 tons, down 12.70 tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 tons, down 0.16 tons [2]. - The automobile output was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.42%, down 0.35%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.15% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.49%, down 0.0021; the option call - put ratio was 0.83, up 0.0246 [2]. Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at a lower price" was still the mainstream. The average price of second - hand houses in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline [2]. - Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, promoting automobile consumption, and implementing home appliance replacement subsidies [2]. - In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of the global automobile sales in the first quarter [2]. - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed could be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies [2]. - The European Central Bank warned that after Trump introduced tariff policies, investors were moving away from traditional safe - haven assets such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [2]. - China supported 33 least - developed African countries to make full use of the zero - tariff policy for 100% of tariff items. From December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from the least - developed African countries reached 21.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]. Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply - side situation improved as some domestic smelters carried out maintenance and production reduction operations, and traders had a sentiment of holding prices. The demand was relatively stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approaching the upper limit [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai aluminum futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply was relatively stable as the new production capacity increment was small and the operating capacity was approaching the ceiling. The demand showed a slight increase overall, with domestic downstream processing shifting from peak to off - peak season and some export - related demand improvement due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and S&P 500 up 0.41%, while Nasdaq fell 0.18% [2] - Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.37%, and Alibaba's stock dropping 7.53% due to disappointing revenue [3] Group 2: Company Earnings - Alibaba reported Q4 revenue of 236.45 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, but below the expected 237.91 billion yuan; Alibaba Cloud revenue reached 30.127 billion yuan, up 18% [3] - NetEase's Q1 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year-over-year, with gaming revenue up 12.1% to 24 billion yuan, while other segments saw declines [3] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, rebounding from a low of 3,120.2 USD/oz to over 3,240 USD/oz, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [4] - A report indicated that gold's political safe-haven attribute is currently the primary driver of price changes, with its monetary and financial attributes being secondary [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy - The US PPI data showed a 0.5% month-over-month decline, indicating significant impacts from rising tariffs on businesses [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced adjustments to the policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks, with results expected by August or September [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Alibaba's financial results, highlighting a slight miss in revenue expectations while showing strong growth in net profit and shareholder returns. Additionally, it covers the broader market context, including U.S. stock index declines and economic indicators. Financial Performance of Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 236.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below the market expectation of 237.91 billion RMB [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 29.85 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, surpassing the forecast of 29.39 billion RMB [2][3] - The company announced a dividend distribution of 460 million USD (approximately 3.31 billion RMB) to enhance shareholder returns [3] - Alibaba's share buyback program for the fiscal year 2025 involved repurchasing 11.97 million shares for 1.19 billion USD, marking it as one of the most aggressive buyback programs among Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [3] Market Context - On May 15, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down by 116.16 points (-0.28%), Nasdaq down by 132.45 points (-0.69%), and S&P 500 down by 15.32 points (-0.26%) [2] - International oil prices fell, with NYMEX WTI crude down by 2.6% to 61.51 USD per barrel, and ICE Brent crude down by 2.54% to 64.41 USD per barrel [5] - Recent economic data indicated that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, slightly above expectations, while April retail sales showed a marginal increase of 0.1% [5]

Core Points - The US dollar declined on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains due to inflation data falling below market expectations [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with March CPI showing a decrease of 0.1% [3][6] - Despite lower inflation data, tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, suggesting potential inflation rise in the coming months [1][3] Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.67% to 101.05, reflecting market reactions to the inflation data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [3][5] - The decline in the dollar index indicates a short-term adjustment in the market's perception of the dollar's strength [5] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.81% against the dollar, reaching 1.1177, partly due to the dollar's decline and optimistic market sentiment regarding the European economy [4] - The British pound rose by 0.95% to 1.3297, marking the largest single-day increase since April 28, driven by the dollar's retreat and positive outlook on the UK economy [7] Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Easing trade tensions have led to reduced recession forecasts among major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, impacting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until September, with a projected reduction of at least 25 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation being threatened by the Trump administration's tariff policies, leading to a dilemma where any monetary policy action may be deemed "too late" [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - Historically, Federal Reserve leaders have been criticized for their indecisiveness in adjusting interest rates, often acting too late in response to economic signals [2] - Examples include Arthur Burns in the 1970s failing to tighten monetary policy during stagflation, Alan Greenspan's delayed response to the internet bubble, and Ben Bernanke's underestimation of the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - Dan North highlights that the Fed tends to wait for overwhelming data before acting, which often results in delayed responses that lead to economic downturns [2][3] Group 2: Current Economic Environment - Powell's current predicament is exacerbated by tariffs that exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, constraining the Fed's policy options [2][3] - Trump has been urging the Fed to lower interest rates, claiming that inflation has been defeated, despite the Fed's decision to maintain rates [4][5] - Recent economic data has not shown significant price increases or a marked slowdown in economic activity, but there are growing concerns among businesses regarding the impact of tariffs [5] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, suggesting that if the Fed relies on labor market performance for policy adjustments, it may act too late [5][6] - Joseph LaVorgna points out that waiting for labor market confirmation could mean the Fed is already behind the curve [6] - Powell's previous reluctance to raise rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 has led to a series of aggressive rate hikes that have yet to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests that it is unwise to adjust monetary policy at this time due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies, which have led to an economic "stall" [1] Economic Impact - Bostic indicates that the uncertainties have resulted in households and businesses refraining from making significant investments [1] - He emphasizes that the specific economic outcome largely depends on the details of policy implementation, highlighting the current lack of clarity [1] Policy Recommendations - Bostic advises the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and refrain from making bold policy moves until the situation becomes clearer [1]