Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it indicates that both platinum and palladium are expected to be "oscillating strongly" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply in South Africa faces power - supply and extreme - weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [1]. - With tariff - expectation disturbances and rising geopolitical risks, palladium is also expected to oscillate strongly. Although the long - term supply - demand for palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, with a 3.67% increase [1]. - The main logic for the strong - oscillation outlook is the resurgence of concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks, and the uncertainty of the US "233" clause on key minerals. In the future, South Africa's supply risks persist, and the demand in the platinum market is expanding in multiple fields [1]. Palladium Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 495.5 yuan/gram, with a 1.60% increase [1]. - The market expected a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10, which led to a supply shortage in non - US regions. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term spot shortages and Fed's potential rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Index Information - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2448.62, +0.96%), Commodity 20 Index (2809.04, +1.08%), Industrial Products Index (2362.72, +0.62%), and PPI Commodity Index (1466.29, +0.70%) [47]. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [48].

Group 1 - The recent decline in the US stock market is attributed to a combination of internal and external pressures, indicating a complex underlying situation rather than just a technical adjustment [2][3] - The bank earnings season has negatively impacted market sentiment, with Wells Fargo reporting lower-than-expected revenue, leading to a 4.6% drop in its stock price. Even companies like Bank of America and Citigroup, which exceeded expectations, saw their stock prices decline, suggesting that the market's expectations have become exceedingly high [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions surrounding Iran and Greenland, have intensified, contributing to market volatility. Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also spread from the gold market to risk assets, indicating deeper investor anxieties [3] Group 2 - Investors are advised to reassess their holdings in the US stock market, particularly in the technology and banking sectors, focusing on companies that can sustain growth through economic cycles and paying attention to credit costs and future guidance in bank earnings reports [4] - Geopolitical risks and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence should be viewed as long-term background factors rather than short-term trading signals, as they may increase volatility but are unlikely to dictate market direction [4] - Maintaining a certain level of cash and investment discipline is recommended during periods of heightened market volatility, allowing investors to manage risks and seize opportunities when they arise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a pre-market rise, driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coeur Mining increased by 3.5% [1] - Pan American Silver rose by 2.8% [1] - Kinross Gold and Gold Fields both saw a rise of 2.4% [1] - Harmony Gold gained 1.8% [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot gold is approaching $4,640 per ounce [1] - Spot silver surged over 5% during the day, breaking through $91 per ounce [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 1,070.8 tons, reflecting a rise of 6.24 tons from the previous trading day, amid heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 12, spot gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of $4,629.93 per ounce before closing at $4,597.21, marking an increase of $87.87 or 1.95% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly regarding an investigation into Chairman Powell's statements about the Fed's renovation project [5]. - Silver also experienced a strong performance, hitting a record high of $84.62 per ounce, driven by similar market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data eased expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, limiting the upside potential for precious metals [6]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, leading to a consensus that a rate cut in January is unlikely, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year, with the first likely in June [6]. - Market reactions to upcoming inflation data could influence gold prices, with a hotter reading potentially exerting downward pressure, while a softer reading may support further price increases [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, confirming a bullish trend, with the price maintaining an upward channel over the past month [7]. - The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, indicating increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI is in the overbought zone, which may limit short-term gains [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,625, with a successful breakout potentially leading to further price increases, while support is established at $4,400 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The COMEX gold futures price has surpassed $3,800 for the first time, reaching a peak of $3,824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high. The gold price has increased by over 8.5% in September and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - The gold price is expected to continue rising, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong investor demand [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise above $4,500 per ounce if 1% of U.S. Treasury holders shift their investments to gold [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach and be mindful of volatility risks, as the rapid increase in gold prices may lead to technical corrections [4][6]. - Various investment options are available for gold, including physical gold (coins, bars, jewelry) and financial products such as futures contracts, ETFs, and gold stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Performance - The average net asset growth rate for 20 gold ETFs this year is approximately 47%, with those tracking domestic spot gold prices averaging a 35% return, while gold stock ETFs have seen an average increase of 74% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,800 mark and reaching a historical high of $3,824.6 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 8.5% in September and a year-to-date rise of 38% [1][2] Price Movement - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to factors such as the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over stagflation in the U.S. economy, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that spot gold prices will exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, while Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to reach $4,500 or even $5,000 under certain conditions [2][3] Investment Strategies - Industry experts recommend a phased investment approach and caution against the rapid price increases, suggesting that investors focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains [3] - Various gold assets have shown differentiated returns, with COMEX gold futures up 38.3% year-to-date and Shanghai gold futures up 36.7% [3] ETF Performance - In the domestic market, gold ETFs have exhibited significant performance variation, with an average net asset growth rate of approximately 47% for 20 gold ETFs this year. ETFs tracking domestic spot gold prices have a one-year average return of 35%, while those linked to gold stocks have seen an average growth rate of 74% [4] - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact, recommending investors to consider buying on dips or employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,800 mark for the first time on September 23, reaching a peak of $3,824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] Price Movement - International gold prices have entered a new trading range, with a cumulative increase of over 8.5% in September alone, expanding the year-to-date increase to 38%, which outpaces major global stock indices and bond yields [1] Market Sentiment - Foreign institutions are increasingly bullish on gold prices, raising their target price expectations, with some forecasts reaching as high as $5,000 [1] Influencing Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, concerns over stagflation risks in the U.S. economy, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Short-term Outlook - Given the heightened volatility in gold prices, it may be challenging for investors to navigate short-term market movements. Additionally, the upcoming long holiday in the domestic market may introduce further price volatility influenced by U.S. non-farm payroll data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The COMEX gold futures price has surpassed $3800 for the first time, reaching a peak of $3824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high. The gold price has increased by over 8.5% in September and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Predictions - The gold price is expected to continue rising, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and strong investor demand [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for gold to rise above $4500 per ounce if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [2]. - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected to persist, with central banks likely to increase gold allocations while reducing dollar holdings, further supporting gold prices [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach and be mindful of volatility risks, as rapid price increases may lead to technical corrections [3]. - Various investment options in gold are available, including physical gold (coins, bars, jewelry) and financial products such as futures contracts, ETFs, and gold stocks [3]. - The performance of different gold assets has varied, with COMEX gold futures showing a year-to-date increase of 38.3% and Shanghai gold futures up 36.7% [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The average net asset growth rate for 20 gold ETFs in the domestic market is approximately 47% this year, with those tracking domestic spot gold prices averaging a 35% return, while gold stock ETFs have seen a higher average growth rate of 74% [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - Investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips or through systematic investment plans, while those using leveraged investment tools should manage their positions carefully ahead of upcoming holidays [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has raised margin requirements and trading limits to enhance market risk control ahead of the National Day holiday in 2025 [5].

Core Insights - International gold prices reached a historic high on September 3, with London spot gold hitting $3,556.055 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3,618.6 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 35.37% and 36.86% respectively [1] - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures saw their main contract rise to a high of 819.68 yuan per gram, the highest since late April, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 31% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, prompting recommendations to maintain long positions in gold futures [1]