Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a weekly low of approximately $3344 before rebounding to around $3357 during the Asian session on June 20 [1] - On June 19, gold prices experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $3347.53 and a high of $3387.77, ultimately closing at $3370.64, nearly flat [1] - The US dollar index rose to a one-week high of 99.16 but retraced some gains by the end of the session, with a weekly increase of about 0.7%, marking the strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates but indicated potential for future rate cuts, while Chairman Powell cautioned against excessive expectations for rate reductions [2] - Powell highlighted that upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration could increase commodity prices, leading to a rise in inflation during the summer [2] - The Fed's vigilance regarding inflation risks diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, putting direct pressure on gold prices as high-interest environments make gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, provided significant support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [4] - The escalation of airstrikes and missile attacks between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over global security, leading to increased demand for gold [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claims of targeting Israeli military facilities and Israel's accusations of attacking civilian targets have intensified the conflict, further driving up market anxiety [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic communications are ongoing, with US Middle East envoy engaging with Iranian officials to seek a resolution to the crisis [5] - Iran has stated it will return to negotiations only if Israel ceases its attacks, while E3 and EU are planning meetings with Iranian officials to explore diplomatic solutions [5] - The persistence of geopolitical risks suggests that demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may continue in the near term [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small-bodied close, indicating pressure, with potential further declines if the market falls below $3350, possibly testing above $3300 [8] - Short-term movements have been fluctuating below $3400 since a peak of $3452, with recent tests below $3350 indicating a bearish trend [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive long positions can be attempted around $3332 with a stop loss at $3327 and a target near $3350/$3360 [9] - Aggressive short positions can be initiated around $3370 with a stop loss at $3377 and a target near $3343/$3333 [9]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key factor affecting gold prices, with indications that there may still be room for interest rate cuts this year, despite warnings against overly optimistic expectations for rate reductions [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, provide significant safe-haven support for gold prices, countering the downward pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance and a strong dollar [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a contraction phase, with key resistance levels identified around 3370-3372, and a new downward trend has formed [6] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a defined range, with a notable drop from 3388 to 3347, aligning with previous market expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has strengthened the US dollar, leading to a significant rebound in dollar assets, while gold bulls are facing substantial challenges [1] Group 1 - The US dollar has shown a strong rebound due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish position [1] - Gold prices are under pressure as bullish sentiment among investors diminishes [1] - Market participants are advised to pay attention to a critical inflection point regarding these developments [1]