Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets continue to experience volatility driven by multiple macro factors, including a strengthening dollar, pressure on gold prices, and uncertainties surrounding trade and central bank policies [1] - The dollar index approached 99.70, reflecting increased market confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and high Treasury yields [1][3] - The euro declined over 0.4% due to weak European economic conditions and expectations of monetary easing, while the Japanese yen fell to a yearly low against the dollar, raising concerns about potential policy intervention [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices struggled to maintain support above $4000, facing pressure from a strong dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with limited upward movement observed [2] - Despite a brief rebound due to safe-haven buying, overall momentum for gold remains weak as the attractiveness of non-yielding assets diminishes with cooling rate cut expectations [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a focal point, with recent speeches from officials indicating a general hawkish tone despite some divergence in views on future interest rate paths [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70%, with expectations that the Fed will maintain a tightening policy to curb inflation [3] Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S.-China trade relations are a key market focus, with recent negotiations showing some positive signals, but significant differences remain in critical areas, leading to a decline in market optimism [4] - Investor concerns about the uncertainty in trade progress may pose risks to economic recovery, affecting risk appetite in the market [4] Group 5: European and Japanese Policy Stances - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at its October meeting, emphasizing no premature policy commitments, which has led to increased uncertainty regarding future monetary policy direction [5] - Japan's new government reiterated the importance of stable exchange rates, with officials closely monitoring market dynamics amid concerns over yen depreciation [5] Group 6: Global Stock Market Performance - Global stock indices generally rose, with U.S. major indices continuing their upward trend, particularly driven by strong performance in the technology sector, exemplified by Nvidia reaching a new historical high [6] - Despite the strong dollar and hawkish Fed stance potentially limiting some gains, overall risk appetite appears to be improving, with investors focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data for insights into future growth trends [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed signals from economic data and central bank policies, with the yen showing strength but lacking strong bullish momentum [1][2] - Tokyo's inflation data has accelerated, raising expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten monetary policy, yet uncertainty remains regarding the timing of potential rate hikes due to anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from the government [1][2] - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has diminished demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to support the dollar [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY exchange rate is stabilizing above the 153.30 level, which has turned into a support zone, indicating potential for short-term upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the 154.80 area could lead to further gains towards the psychological level of 155.00, while a drop below 154.00 would focus attention on support levels between 153.25 and 153.00 [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices showed weak performance today with little change in open interest. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream market sentiment was cautious. After the China-US summit, the relaxation of mutual tariff policies may improve the macro environment. Continued attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **Nickel**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel increased while prices declined today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, and nickel prices continued to fall. The weakness in the industrial sector led investors to prefer short positions in nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 192,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from Monday. Goldman Sachs believes that even considering a significant decline in global refined copper production, the copper market will experience a slight supply surplus in 2026, consistent with its forecast of a copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from Monday [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel ranged from 120,800 to 123,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel ranged from -200 to 100 yuan per ton [9]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][39].

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar, falling below 88.50, marking a new low since October 14 due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve [1] Currency Impact - The depreciation of the Indian Rupee is a direct response to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is perceived as aggressive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments indicate that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, suggesting a growing internal consensus to pause rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, still above the estimated neutral rate of 3.5%, indicating that monetary policy remains relatively tight [5]. - Two officials opposed the rate cut: one advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while another preferred to maintain the current rate, highlighting increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Employment growth is slowing, with initial jobless claims and private sector indicators showing a deceleration, but there is no sign of a rapid decline in the labor market [4]. - Inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, with the PCE inflation rate estimated at 2.8% in September, up from 2.7% the previous month, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The pace of future rate cuts may slow, potentially shifting from "cutting at every meeting" to "cutting once per quarter," as the Fed approaches the neutral rate and inflation remains stubbornly high [5]. - The effectiveness of rate cuts is expected to be limited due to a diminished refinancing effect, as many homeowners locked in low rates in 2021, reducing the incentive for refinancing [5]. Group 4: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, stopping the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings and rolling over maturing principal, while continuing to limit MBS reductions [6]. - The decision to end QT is seen as a technical adjustment to address liquidity concerns and manage the average duration of its asset portfolio, reflecting a desire to normalize monetary policy [6].

Group 1 - The upcoming weekly initial jobless claims data will reveal the latest dynamics in the employment market, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and impacting the dollar and gold prices [1] - If the jobless claims data is strong, it may strengthen the Fed's position, pushing the dollar and yields higher while suppressing gold prices; conversely, weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, supporting a rebound in gold [1] - Market focus is on two key U.S. economic data releases later this week, which will provide further clues on the Fed's policy path and directly affect gold trends [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, the dollar index rose significantly, negatively impacting gold prices; gold initially rose to $3,779.2 but then fell sharply to $3,717.4 before rebounding to close at $3,735.8, indicating a bearish trend [3] - The 4-hour analysis shows gold fluctuating around $3,740, with indicators suggesting a downward trend; the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are declining, and the MACD indicator shows increasing bearish momentum [3] - Trading recommendations suggest short positions around $3,755-$3,758 with a stop loss at $3,763 and a target profit range of $3,730-$3,720 [5]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Dow Jones up 0.04% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese stocks [1] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported an interest rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Concerns were raised about the labor market, as the July non-farm payroll data showed job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] - Historical revisions to previous employment data indicated a reduction of over 250,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a strong job market [2] Market Reaction to Fed's Stance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant sell-off, losing approximately $1 trillion in market value over four days due to fears of the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [3] - The sell-off was led by tech stocks, with Nvidia and Palantir seeing notable declines, the latter experiencing a cumulative drop of 23.87% since August 12 [3] Diverging Investor Sentiments - Some investors view the market downturn as a buying opportunity, with analysts suggesting that upcoming economic data and Fed Chair Powell's speech could influence market direction [4] - Conversely, other analysts believe that current market valuations are too high, prioritizing profit-taking over risk-taking, indicating a fragile market balance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of major indices and the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][5][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Dow Jones up 0.04% [1]. - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [2]. - The S&P 500 index saw a significant sell-off, losing about $1 trillion in market capitalization within four days due to concerns over the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported a rate cut, indicating a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% [3][4]. - The release of disappointing non-farm payroll data shortly after the meeting raised concerns about the labor market, with job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor opinions are divided regarding the recent market downturn, with some viewing it as a buying opportunity, while others believe that high valuations necessitate profit-taking [6][7][9]. - Analysts suggest that the downward potential for tech stocks may be limited due to global central banks easing policies, which could support global equity markets [8]. - However, concerns remain that any disappointing news could disrupt the fragile balance in the market, as current valuations have largely priced in optimistic future scenarios [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a technical rebound during the Asian trading session, stabilizing above the 100-day moving average after a significant drop [1][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the policy range at 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Strong economic data, including a 104,000 increase in private sector employment and a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, has bolstered the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The market is focused on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are supported at the 100-day moving average (around $3,270), with a key resistance level at $3,310 [3][4] - If the core PCE index exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on gold prices [6]

基本面： 除了美联储的鹰派立场，当日公布的美国经济数据也给了黄金多头当头一棒。ADP就业报告显示，7月民间就业岗位增幅超预期，这表明劳动力市场仍具韧 性。更引人注目的是，美国第二季度GDP环比年率增长3.0%，远超预期的2.4%，一扫第一季度萎缩0.5%的阴霾。虽然经济学家指出，这组数据存在"水 分"——进口下降贡献了主要增长，且国内需求增速创两年半新低。但不可否认的是，这些数据整体描绘出的经济图景，削弱了市场对美联储即将宽松的预 期。 整体来看，美元短期走强成为近期金价承压的关键因素，本周强劲的美国经济数据及美联储维持的鹰派立场进一步限制黄金多头，交易者将继续关注晚间 PCE数据及周五非农影响，另外留意有关特朗普关税方面及对美联储方面言论。 周四（7月31日）亚盘时段，现货黄金自隔夜大跌后小幅反弹，但仍受限于隔夜利率决议后压制表现，目前暂交投于3295美元附近。现货黄金周三（7月30 日）下跌一度超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的 超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上 ...