⚫ 一、广义财政收入回落，支出增速显著放 缓 宏观研究报告 增量资金有望加速到位 —— 2025 年 1-10 月财政数据解读 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ⚫ 1-10 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 1.7% 月月月 0.7% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月 月月10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 11 -12 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月 月 ⚫ 2025 月 1-10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 0.2% 月月月 0.3% 月月月月月月月月月月 5.2% 月月月 7.9% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue for the first ten months of the year has shown a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, with total public budget revenue reaching 186.49 billion yuan [1][2] - Tax revenue has increased by 1.7% year-on-year, amounting to 153.36 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue has decreased by 3.1%, totaling 33.13 billion yuan [1] - In October alone, public budget revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is an improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Group 2 - Public budget expenditure has also maintained growth, with total expenditure for the first ten months reaching 225.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Key areas of expenditure include social security and employment, which grew by 9.3%, education at 4.7%, and health care at 2.4% [2] - Government fund budget revenue has decreased by 2.8% to 34.5 billion yuan, while expenditure has surged by 15.4% to 80.9 billion yuan, largely due to accelerated use of bond funds [2]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue in China for the first ten months of 2025 shows a steady recovery, with public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure growth has slowed down [1] - Tax revenue has been a significant contributor to the overall revenue increase, with notable growth in various tax categories [3] - Infrastructure-related spending is expected to rebound due to new policy measures and increased project implementation [5][6] Revenue Performance - Total public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1%, amounting to 3.31 trillion yuan [1] - Major tax categories showed growth: VAT increased by 4%, consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3] Sectoral Tax Contributions - The equipment manufacturing and modern service sectors demonstrated strong tax revenue performance [4] - Specific sectors such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while scientific research and technical services grew by 14.8% [4] Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Key areas such as social security, education, and health saw significant expenditure increases, with social security and employment spending growing by 9.3% [5] - Infrastructure-related spending in agriculture, forestry, and water management decreased by 9%, although the decline rate has narrowed [5] Future Outlook - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to support infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter and early next year [6] - The central government has allocated additional funds for project construction, indicating a proactive adjustment in response to slowing infrastructure growth [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights a recovery in fiscal revenue, with a steady increase in public budget income and a slowdown in expenditure growth, while maintaining high growth in social welfare-related spending [2][4]. Fiscal Revenue Recovery - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 15.34 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.7%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous nine months [2]. - Non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1% to 3.31 trillion yuan [2]. Tax Revenue Growth - Major tax categories showed significant growth: domestic VAT increased by 4%, domestic consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and personal income tax by 11.5%, with respective increases of 0.4, 0.2, 1.1, and 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [4]. - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable increase of 88.1%, totaling 162.9 billion yuan, driven by a recovery in market confidence and A-share trading volume [4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries demonstrated strong tax revenue performance, with notable increases in specific sectors: computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 12.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 7.9%, scientific research and technical services by 14.8%, and cultural, sports, and entertainment industries by 5.7% [5]. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [7]. - Key areas such as social security and employment, education, health, science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and cultural tourism saw substantial increases in spending, with growth rates of 9.3%, 4.7%, 2.4%, 5.7%, 7%, and 2.5% respectively [7]. Infrastructure Spending Outlook - Infrastructure-related spending in agriculture, forestry, and water management declined by 9%, although the rate of decline narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [8]. - Analysts expect a rebound in fiscal infrastructure spending, supported by new policy financial tools and additional allocations for project construction [8].

Group 1 - Tax revenue in China showed a significant recovery, with total public budget revenue reaching approximately 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue specifically amounted to about 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [1] - The growth in tax revenue has been driven by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a low base from the previous year, with tax revenue growth rates of 8.7% in September and 8.6% in October [1][2] Group 2 - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 162.9 billion yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 88.1% [2] - Personal income tax collected was approximately 1.3363 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2] - Several industries, including computer and communication equipment manufacturing, saw tax revenue growth rates of 12.7%, 7.9%, and 14.8% respectively [2] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue for the first ten months of the year was about 3.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [3] - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [3] Group 4 - Total public budget expenditure reached approximately 22.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [4] - Expenditure related to social security and employment was about 3.77 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.3% year-on-year [4] - The government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local fiscal capacity and effective investment [4]

财政部今天发布的最新数据显示，今年1—10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增幅比1 —9月提高0.3个百分点。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%，月度增幅继续提高。 税收收入持续较快增长。1—10月，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，增长1.7%，增幅比1—9月提高1个百分 点。计算机通信设备制造业税收收入增长12.7%，电气机械器材制造业税收收入增长7.9%。 各级财政持续加快债券资金使用，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债等 资金共支出4.54万亿元。 （总台央视记者 赵曙光 蒋勇） 1—10月，全国财政支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。 各级财政落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。 其中，社会保障和就业支出增长9.3%，科学技术支出增长5.7%，教育支出增长4.7%。 ...

格隆汇11月17日｜财政部：1-10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税 收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般 公共预算收入81856亿元，同比下降0.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入104634亿元，同比增长2.1%。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of Trump's global tariffs, which are expected to persist regardless of legal authorization [1][2] - Lower courts have ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2] - The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision could significantly impact Trump's ability to impose tariffs as a means of punishing countries over non-trade political issues [2] Group 1: Tariff Legislation and Authority - The Supreme Court consists of six conservative and three liberal justices, and has previously supported Trump in major rulings [2] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, he may resort to other legal frameworks for imposing tariffs, such as the Trade Act of 1974 and the Tariff Act of 1930 [3] - Trump's administration views tariffs as a cornerstone of economic policy, and businesses should plan accordingly [3] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Agreements - Trump's tariff policies have reportedly led to significant concessions from major trading partners like Japan and the EU, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit [4] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office has announced final framework trade agreements with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, locking in tariff rates between 19% and 20% [4] - South Korea has agreed to a $350 billion investment plan in exchange for tariff reductions on automobiles and other goods [4] Group 3: Financial Implications and Revenue - As of September 7, the total import tariffs collected under IEEPA reached $89 billion, contributing to a net customs revenue increase of $118 billion for the fiscal year ending September 30 [8] - The reliance on tariff revenue poses significant political and economic risks, complicating future tariff reductions for any administration [8] - The potential need to refund over $100 billion in tariff revenue could create challenges for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection [8] Group 4: Inflation and Cost Management - Importers have largely absorbed the costs of tariffs, which has limited consumer price increases but has also reduced profit margins [9] - The Oxford Economics Institute estimates that tariffs have increased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate by 0.4 percentage points, pushing inflation above the Federal Reserve's target [9] - Companies are facing significant cost impacts, with over $35 billion in tariff-related costs disclosed ahead of the third-quarter earnings season [9]

Economic Overview - Jiangmen's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 299.75 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% at constant prices, indicating overall economic stability [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Jiangmen was 46.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - Specific growth rates include agriculture (planting) at 5.4%, forestry at 3.7%, animal husbandry down by 1.5%, fishery up by 6.7%, and auxiliary activities up by 20.8% [3] Industrial Sector - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with total industrial electricity consumption at 19.37 billion kWh, up by 2.2% [4] - Manufacturing added value grew by 2.7%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw a decline of 4.7%, and mining decreased by 28.4% [4] - By economic type, state-owned enterprises increased by 3.3%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises decreased by 0.7% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen fell by 30.9% year-on-year, with state investment down by 32.5% and private investment down by 28.7% [5] - Investment in the primary industry decreased by 29.9%, the secondary industry by 32.9% (with manufacturing down by 40.3%), and the tertiary industry by 27.7% [5] Fiscal Performance - Local general public budget revenue reached 22.533 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [6] - Total public budget expenditure was 30.1 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%, with Newhui leading in both total and growth rate at 11.1% [10] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 98.322 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in September [7] Regional Performance - In terms of GDP, the ranking of Jiangmen's districts is led by Xinhui at 75.631 billion yuan, followed by Pengjiang, Taishan, and others [9] - The highest GDP growth rate was recorded in Jianghai at 5.2%, with Pengjiang and Xinhui also exceeding the city average [9] - All districts showed negative growth in fixed asset investment, with no positive growth recorded [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fiscal revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2023 has shown a gradual recovery, reflecting a stable and improving economic situation [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year [1][5] - The central government budget revenue decreased by 1.2% to 70,837 billion yuan, while local government budget revenue increased by 1.8% to 93,039 billion yuan [2][5] Group 2 - Tax revenue, which is the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with notable performances in several key tax categories [2][3] - The growth rates for specific taxes included a 3.6% increase in value-added tax, a 2.2% increase in consumption tax, and a significant 9.7% increase in personal income tax [3] - The government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local debt repayment and expand effective investment, indicating a proactive fiscal policy [4][5] Group 3 - The expenditure in key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and environmental protection has been well-supported, with social security and employment spending growing by 10% [5][6] - The overall public budget expenditure growth of 3.1% in the first three quarters is attributed to increased spending in social welfare, education, and health sectors, which are at their highest growth rates in three years [6] - The government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5% to 30,717 billion yuan, while the expenditure increased significantly by 23.9% to 74,924 billion yuan, driven by bond funds [6][7]