证 券 研 究 报 告 羽绒服起家转型户外，质价比与功能性打开市场 ——从坦博尔看户外行业发展趋势 证券分析师：王立平 A0230511040052 刘佩 A0230523070002 联系人： 刘佩 A0230523070002 2025.12.16 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 坦博尔以羽绒服起家，敏锐转型户外，乘行业东风快速成长。公司成立于2004年，以羽绒服起家，2022 年敏锐转型户外定位，凭借高质价比与功能性切入更广阔的市场，产品以卓越的品质、人性化的设计以及 先进的工艺，满足滑雪、登山徒步、以及郊游、通勤等需求。2024 年公司营收 13.0 亿元，同比增长 28%； 归母净利润 1.1 亿元，因费用投入较大同比下滑 23%，零售规模位居本土专业户外品牌第四。 ◼ 户外行业高速增长，国产品牌加码布局。2024年中国专业户外产业市场规模2095亿元，同比增长9.8%。。 行业格局较为分散，2024年前十大品牌的市场份额合计仅占24.3%。目前行业仍以国际品牌为主导，但国 产品牌加码布局，增速更快，2019年至2024年复合年增长率为16.2%，高于国际品牌 ...

一轮接一轮的降温，羽绒服"热"起来了。 而今年对羽绒服的热议中，离不开一个"贵"字。许多人明显感受到，多个知名品牌的羽绒服价格已普遍 进入"2000元时代"。 #月薪多少才穿得起大几千的羽绒服、#羽绒服出厂价已逼近千元、#300元以下基本买不到真羽绒 等与 价格相关的话题也频登热搜，浏览量均超千万。 谁在涨价？消费者是否埋单？越来越贵的羽绒服究竟值不值这个价？今年的羽绒服又有哪些新趋势？ 近期，有意思报告对"2025羽绒服趋势"展开问卷调查，共收到1173份有效样本。其中，85后—95后是受 访主要群体，占比约七成；一线及新一线城市受访者占比过半；六成受访者年收入在10万元以上。这份 来自消费主力人群的样本，或许能为上述问题提供一些真实的注脚。 2000元成羽绒服消费新门槛 为什么变化这么大？去年是买与不买都看价格，今年变了——为"喜欢"买单成主流，想要而非需要。 映射到数据，在"买羽绒服的原因"中，近半数消费者将"有喜欢的风格/款式"列为购买首要原因，其占 比超"刚需"和"促销优惠"，而后者在去年曾是影响决策的首要因素。此外，今年新增选项"想买件品质 各方面更好的"也获得了超三成人的选择。 这标志着羽绒服正 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者方凤娇 上海报道 告别联合利华"单飞"将近一年之后，全球市占率第一的冰淇淋巨头梦龙冰淇淋如期上市了。市值在640 亿元人民币以上，2024年营收接近80亿欧元，从独立到上市，梦龙将在一定程度上重塑全球冰淇淋市场 格局。 餐宝典研究院院长、餐饮分析师汪洪栋对《华夏时报》记者表示，梦龙独立上市后，公司资金会更充 裕，这或将加速其在全球市场的扩张，在营销、产品以及资本运作等方面加大投入，进一步加剧市场竞 争。同时，决策链条将进一步缩短，拥有更大的自主性，能更灵活地应对区域市场的竞争，比如推出一 些针对性的产品或者营销策略，以便能进一步融入本地市场。 但不容忽视的是，中国市场始终是梦龙战略布局里的"核心高地"，但中国市场竞争激烈，面对现制冰淇 淋与新茶饮跨界玩家不断挤压市场空间，梦龙也面临挑战。 梦龙"单飞"上市 12月8日，梦龙冰淇淋公司正式宣布在阿姆斯特丹、伦敦与纽约三地上市，公司总股本6.12亿股，成为 全球少数选择多地挂牌的消费品公司之一。这也意味着，联合利华的冰淇淋业务拆分终于画上句号。 "作为联合利华家族的一部分，我们成为全球冰淇淋的领导者。现在，作为一家独立 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中泰证券研究 何长天|中泰饮料行业负责人 S0740522030001 1.2025年软饮料行业回顾 1.1行情回顾：截至2025年11月28日，申万软饮料指数年初以来涨幅7.6%，相对上证指数/食品饮料指数 超额收益分别为-8.4%/12.4%。估值层面，软饮料行业最新PE-TTM（剔除负值）约28.3倍，位于近三年 46%分位数，三季度以来板块估值水平回落。 1.2行业层面：量增推动销额较好增长、品类表现分化。按照尼尔森数据，我国软饮料销售额近年保持 中高个位数增长，量增为主、价基本持平，其中MAT2503销售额、销售量、单价分别同比增长7.4%、 7.2%、0.2%；分月度看，25H1软饮料全渠道销售额同比增速均为正，7月份开始转负且下滑趋势在8、9 月有所扩大，主要受外卖大战及新兴渠道如会员店、零食集合店崛起（尼尔森数据尚未覆盖）影响。细 分品类看，马上赢数据显示仅运动饮料连续3个季度保持较好增长，植物饮料H1销额双位数增长但价格 略承压，即饮果汁个位数增长、单价上行，其他品类销售额则不同程度承压，Q3全品类增长放缓或降 ...

来源：时代周报-时代在线 12月8日，梦龙冰淇淋公司（The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.，下称"梦龙公司"）在阿姆斯特丹、 伦敦与纽约三地上市，成为全球最大的冰淇淋IPO。 图源：网络 上市当日，公司市值达78亿欧元（约合人民币642亿元）。作为从联合利华拆分而来的独立主体，梦龙 拥有全球5大冰淇淋品牌中的4大品牌，包括和路雪、可爱多、梦龙和Ben&Jerry's，堪称冰淇淋行业 的"豪门新贵"。 此次独立上市，不仅是梦龙发展历程的重要节点，也再次将高端雪糕赛道的竞争格局推向公众视野。承 载着一代人情怀的梦龙，能否在争议与挑战中站稳中国高端雪糕市场？ 全球冰淇淋零售市占率21% 此前，梦龙公司的业务归属于联合利华集团。2024年，为简化公司结构、重振增长，联合利华集团决定 拆分包含梦龙、和路雪和可爱多等品牌在内的冰淇淋业务；2025年7月，业务分拆完成，梦龙公司作为 联合利华集团内的一家独立公司开展运营。 此次分拆诞生了一家"冰淇淋巨头"。据联合利华披露的投资者文件，2024年，冰淇淋业务的收入达到79 亿欧元（约合人民币666亿元），调整后EBITDA（注：税息折旧及摊销前的 ...

上海市商务委数据显示，2025年1—10月，上海新增首店848家，其中餐饮业首店498家、零售业首 店275家。高能级首店表现尤为亮眼，新增全球及亚洲首店13家、全国及内地首店134家，合计占比达 17.3%，品牌来源覆盖美、法、意、英、韩、德等多个国家。 今年以来，霍伽（HOKA）全球首家体验中心、蔻驰（COACH）全球首家度假区门店等高能级项 目纷纷落子上海。5月下旬，阿迪达斯旗下三叶草全球旗舰店在安福路开业；7月，法国户外运动品牌萨 洛蒙全球首家概念店成了它的邻居。9月，暇步士（Hush Puppies）中国首家主题旗舰店入驻上海合生 汇。临近岁末，外资开首店、新店势头依然不减。10月，纽约潮奢珠宝品牌APORRO中国首店在静安 国际中心启幕，意大利手工户外鞋品牌CRISPI中国首店落户浦东嘉里城。11月，继地标性的巴黎芳登 广场26号与东京银座之后，开云集团旗下的法国高端珠宝品牌宝诗龙全球第三家旗舰店入驻新天地。如 今，该品牌已在中国内地拥有17家精品店。 与以往单纯布局门店不同，外资零售业顺应市场变化，更加聚焦供给侧与需求侧的"深度适配"。 第一个应变之道是扩大体验消费。今年成为上海商贸零售行业现象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage consumption peak season has ended, with leading companies reporting stable third-quarter results and further strengthening their advantages. The soft drink industry shows resilience in demand despite environmental disturbances, with a recommendation to focus on structural growth segments within the beverage sector, particularly functional drinks and sugar-free tea leaders [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Shenwan Soft Drink Index has increased by 7.6% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Food & Beverage Index by 8.4% and outperforming by 12.4% respectively. The current PE-TTM for the soft drink industry is approximately 28.3 times, positioned at the 46th percentile over the past three years, indicating a decline in valuation levels since the third quarter [1]. - The soft drink sales in China have maintained a mid-to-high single-digit growth in recent years, primarily driven by volume increases while prices remain stable. The MAT2503 sales figures show a year-on-year growth of 7.4% in sales revenue, 7.2% in sales volume, and a slight increase of 0.2% in price. However, sales growth turned negative starting in July 2025, influenced by competition in delivery services and the rise of new channels like membership stores and snack collection stores [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The soft drink industry is expected to experience structural prosperity driven by health and functionality trends, with demand remaining robust despite environmental disturbances. Positive price signals have emerged, with the CPI turning positive in October 2025 and PPI showing a narrowing decline. However, the recovery of internal demand may take time due to low consumer confidence and income growth being affected by asset prices [3]. - The beverage sector's revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2024 is projected at 12.8%, ranking third among food and beverage sub-sectors. The sales growth for the beverage sector in the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.4%, 17.8%, and 14.4% year-on-year, indicating a faster recovery and better resilience compared to other fast-moving consumer goods [4]. Group 3: Category Trends - The health and functionality trends in the soft drink category are expected to continue, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and larger packaging options. The market penetration among key consumer groups like Generation Z and Millennials has reached over 90%, with these demographics showing strong purchasing power and diverse demands for health, nutrition, and emotional satisfaction [5]. - The beverage industry is likely to benefit from continued cost advantages, with expectations of weak pricing for core ingredients like white sugar and PET, while corrugated paper prices are expected to rise, providing support [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the beverage industry is increasing, with leading companies enhancing their competitive advantages. From 2019 to 2024, the revenue CAGR for leading companies is 8.6%, while regional and niche companies have seen a decline of 0.7%. The net profit CAGR for leading companies is 15.5%, compared to 4.6% for smaller firms, indicating a strengthening of market positions for industry leaders [7].

于是，幸运咖成了这场消费变革的典型样本。数据显示，截止11月，幸运咖在全国门店已经突破10000家，速度比其他品牌还要快，硬是在咖啡界杀出了一 条血路。 究其原因，是因为幸运咖极致的性价比。一杯美式，成本不过几块钱。今年万店狂奔的幸运咖，直接5.9元打穿行业底线，味道不差，用料不减，靠的就是 价格合理，品质不掉价。 发现没有，现在的年轻人买东西不再攀比谁的贵，而是开始比谁买得便宜。"买贵了"成了年轻人最怕听到的一句话。而这场消费观念转变，正在改写中国零 售业的底层逻辑。 所以对于年轻人来讲，他们选择这些平台和品牌，并不是因为"便宜"，而是因为"值得"。他们开始在折扣中寻找秩序，在性价比中建立标准。他们拒绝将 就，但也不再盲从"越贵越好"的老逻辑。 咖啡有替代，品牌也能比价。这届年轻人早就不信广告、不信情怀，只信"质价比"这三个字。从"情绪消费"到"理性选择"，不是消费降级，而是认知升级。 这种场景越来越像一种自我主张：花得更值，才是真的会过。 比如奥特莱斯，从前只是城市边缘的清仓场，现在成了都市青年的周末据点。2025年6月前，全国205家品质化奥莱总销售额同比增长近9%，客流逼近9亿人 次，一到周末，停车场 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 China Gift Industry Outlook White Paper was launched at the 33rd Shenzhen Gift and Home Exhibition, highlighting the current state and future trends of the gift industry [1] Industry Status - The Chinese gift industry is transitioning from scale expansion to "high-quality service deepening," with a confidence index rising to 80 points [2] - The market structure is characterized by diverse collaboration, with private enterprises remaining the main procurement force and a significant trend of younger decision-makers (nearly half are post-90s) [2] - The industry faces three major challenges: pressure to reduce costs and increase efficiency, rising compliance risks, and the emphasis on emotional value [2] - 46% of enterprises prioritize improving the quality-price ratio, indicating a shift in competition focus from "low price" to "high quality at a reasonable price" [2] - Digital procurement penetration is increasing, with nearly half of enterprises increasing investment, and 54% reporting positive impacts from supply chain digitization [2] Development Trends - Competition is shifting from resource-based relationships to specialization, digitization, and service orientation, marked by five key trends: 1. E-commerce channels for gifts are growing, with increased policy support and online procurement transparency [3] 2. Government and enterprise bidding requirements are rising, emphasizing compliance, transparency, and digital service capabilities [3] 3. Welfare budgets are decreasing while SKU counts are expanding, with companies enhancing employee experience through category expansion and flexible benefits [3] 4. After-sales service quality is critical for contract renewals, with logistics, customization, and response speed affecting partnership stability [3] 5. Price wars are prevalent across all categories, necessitating differentiation through innovation, such as IP integration and emotional marketing [3] Market Insights - Food and beverage sectors are under price pressure, shifting towards "strong brands, heavy value, and customized offerings" [4] - Home textiles maintain stable demand but face profit pressures, focusing on health-functional products and customized services [4] - Small appliances are highly utilized but impacted by price wars and consumer diversion, requiring a focus on light customization and high practicality [4] - The fragrance market is experiencing significant growth, primarily through gift sets that align with emotional consumption trends [4] White Paper Release - The annual release of the White Paper has become a significant event in the gift industry, reflecting trust in the Shenzhen Gift Exhibition and the responsibility of the organizer, Informa Markets [5] - The research for the White Paper involves months of data collection and interviews with industry representatives, ensuring comprehensive insights based on big data [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rational consumption is becoming a new choice for the younger generation, with a focus on value rather than just price [1] - Approximately 80% of Generation Z consumers wait for discounts before making purchases, indicating a strong value threshold rather than a mere pursuit of the lowest price [1] - Discount retail, particularly hard discount supermarkets, is experiencing a new wave of development opportunities, with a market size expected to reach around 250 billion yuan this year [3] Group 2 - Hard discount supermarkets have a stable annual growth rate of 10%-15% over the past two to three years, driven by their strong supply chain and operational efficiency [3] - Prices at hard discount supermarkets are typically 30%-40% lower than traditional supermarkets, exemplified by the price difference for a 30-pack of eggs [3] - Vipshop, a typical example of a discount e-commerce platform, reported a net revenue of 21.4 billion yuan in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [5] Group 3 - Vipshop's core competitiveness lies in its long-established buying system and supply chain capabilities, which help reduce product markups and benefit consumers [6] - The platform has attracted many young consumers by offering luxury goods at prices as low as 20% of their original prices [6] - The discount retail sector is expected to continue its steady growth as consumer concepts evolve, emphasizing the importance of quality-price ratio [8]