Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, but faces increasing resistance in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and global geopolitical tensions [1] Trade Growth Analysis - Global trade grew approximately 1.5% in the first quarter, with an expected growth of 2% in the second quarter [1] - Price increases are the main driver of the growth in global trade value, while trade volume only increased by 1% [1] - Service trade remains the primary driver of global trade growth, with a 9% increase over the past four quarters [1] Trade Imbalance Concerns - The report indicates a worsening global trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters [1] - The recent U.S. tariff measures have heightened the risk of trade fragmentation, and potential further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chain stability [1]

Group 1 - The global economy is facing uncertainty and fragmentation challenges, with growth forecasts being revised down due to increased trade policy uncertainty and tariff announcements [1][26][30] - Structural vulnerabilities include low productivity growth, high public debt levels, and increased reliance on non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) [1][37][42] - The financial system is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from bank lending to government bond markets and NBFIs playing a larger role in cross-border transactions [2][48][50] Group 2 - The next-generation monetary and financial system is focusing on tokenization, which aims to integrate financial assets and transaction rules on a programmable platform [2][55][58] - Stablecoins are growing but fail to meet key monetary criteria, limiting their role in the monetary system [2][57] - Central banks are expected to play a catalytic role in driving innovation while maintaining trust in the monetary system [2][59]

Group 1: Long-term Outlook on China's Economy - The long-term optimism towards China's economy remains unchanged, with a belief that economic transformation is a gradual process currently underway [1][2][11] - New growth drivers for China include energy transition initiatives such as electric vehicles and the technology sector, which has attracted substantial investment [10][11] - Chinese technology companies maintain attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts, indicating potential investment opportunities [10][11] Group 2: Globalization and Trade Issues - Globalization is difficult to reverse due to the high degree of global economic integration, although trade conflicts present significant challenges [14][19] - Prolonged trade disputes could seriously undermine global economic growth, with trade fragmentation disrupting supply chains [16][19] - There is optimism that trade issues will be resolved in the long run, as all parties have incentives to address these challenges [16][19] Group 3: US Debt and Economic Concerns - The US government debt problem is a long-standing issue, with rising interest costs and fiscal spending programs facing pressure in the coming years [21][23] - The debt interest paid by the US accounts for about 3%-4% of GDP, and if not addressed, could lead to cuts in social security benefits [23][24] - Despite concerns, the risk of US default is considered almost zero, as countries issuing debt in their own currency do not need to default [24] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - There is a notable capital flow into European stock markets and emerging markets, indicating a diversification away from US assets [30][31] - As of the end of 2024, the US accounted for over 70% of the MSCI World Index, suggesting that reducing the proportion of US assets in portfolios is reasonable [31] - Investors are not selling US stocks on a large scale but are rebalancing their portfolios to reduce dependence on the US market [30][31]

Core Insights - The rise of protectionism and trade fragmentation is particularly concerning according to the Bank for International Settlements [1] Group 1 - The increase in protectionist measures is impacting global trade dynamics [1] - Trade fragmentation is leading to inefficiencies in international supply chains [1] - The overall economic growth may be hindered by these rising protectionist trends [1]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, suggests that trade fragmentation should exert anti-inflationary pressure on the UK economy [1] Group 1 - Trade fragmentation is expected to influence inflation dynamics in the UK, potentially leading to lower inflation rates [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent price increase in the US shipping market is likely a short-term opportunity, while long-term trends indicate a sustained demand-supply imbalance in Asian container trade due to low supply pressure for vessels under 4000 TEU over the next three years [1] - The report highlights that the US has already experienced a minor preemptive stockpiling before the tariff adjustments, leading to a concentrated demand for shipments following the tariff reduction on May 12 [1][2] - The current surge in shipping rates is attributed to a temporary mismatch in supply and demand, with the logistics system operating smoothly and port efficiency having improved significantly [2] Group 2 - Increased uncertainty and geopolitical risks are leading to a more fragmented trade landscape, with a noticeable shift in trade relationships post the 2018 US-China trade tensions [3] - China's outbound direct investment reached $177.29 billion in 2023, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion directed towards Asian markets [3] - The investment strategy is shifting from acquisitions to greenfield investments, which may enhance trade in intermediate goods between China and these regions [3]

美国国内游同样势头疲软，因为很多美国民众担忧美国即将陷入经济衰退，广泛加征关税也将推动消费 价格快速上涨，所以不得不取消或推迟旅行计划。根据世界旅游及旅行理事会与牛津经济研究院联合分 析得出的最新数据，2025年美国预计将损失高达125亿美元的旅游收入，到2025年年底，美国全年国内 外游客消费支出预计将比2024年减少约7%，较2019年美国旅游业巅峰时期大跌22%。 不明朗的经济前景叠加疲软的航空需求，迫使美国的航空公司不得不采取削减航班班次、停止提供免费 服务等方式控制成本，以保持利润率和现金流。正如达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安所说，"当前全 球贸易面临较大的不确定性，增长趋于停滞。在这种低增长环境下，我们正专注于自己能够掌控的一 切。" （文章来源：经济日报） 美国西南航空公司日前宣布，正式终止其长期实行的"行李免运费"政策。即日起，该航空公司将对首件 托运行李收取35美元费用，第二件收取45美元，除非乘客是高级会员或购买高价机票。 此前，西南航空公司是美国唯一仍为所有旅客提供两件免费托运行李的大型航司，"行李免运费"这一特 色服务曾使其在竞争激烈的美国航空市场中独树一帜。此次取消免运费政策意味着 ...

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission's spring economic forecast for 2025 indicates that despite global policy uncertainties and escalating trade tensions, the EU economy is expected to maintain moderate growth this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [1] - The projected real GDP growth for the EU and Eurozone in 2025 is 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, remaining largely unchanged from 2024; growth is expected to increase to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2026 [1] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone is anticipated to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026; the EU's inflation rate is also expected to decline from a slightly higher level in 2024 to just below 2% by 2026 [1] - Private consumption is projected to grow slightly above last autumn's forecast, reaching 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported by strong growth momentum in 2024 and a resilient labor market despite high savings rates limiting consumption [1] Investment and Trade - Following a contraction of 1.8% in fixed capital formation in 2024, investment is expected to recover moderately, with growth forecasted at 1.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - EU exports are projected to grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, impacted by a slowdown in global trade [1] Employment and Wage Trends - The labor market remains resilient, with an expected increase of 2 million jobs by 2026 and a reduction in the unemployment rate to a historical low of 5.7% [2] - Nominal wage growth is slowing, but real wages are expected to continue rising, helping to recover purchasing power lost during the pandemic [2] Fiscal Outlook - The general government deficit for the EU is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2025 after a decrease to 3.2% in 2024, remaining at that level in 2026 [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU is expected to slightly increase to 83.2% in 2025 and 84.5% in 2026 [2] Risks and Opportunities - Risks such as trade fragmentation and climate disasters pose downward threats to growth; however, positive factors like easing US-EU trade tensions, new trade agreements, increased defense spending, and deepening structural reforms are expected to enhance the resilience of the EU economy [2]