Core Insights - The rise of protectionism and trade fragmentation is particularly concerning according to the Bank for International Settlements [1] Group 1 - The increase in protectionist measures is impacting global trade dynamics [1] - Trade fragmentation is leading to inefficiencies in international supply chains [1] - The overall economic growth may be hindered by these rising protectionist trends [1]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：贸易碎片化应当对英国产生反通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent price increase in the US shipping market is likely a short-term opportunity, while long-term trends indicate a sustained demand-supply imbalance in Asian container trade due to low supply pressure for vessels under 4000 TEU over the next three years [1] - The report highlights that the US has already experienced a minor preemptive stockpiling before the tariff adjustments, leading to a concentrated demand for shipments following the tariff reduction on May 12 [1][2] - The current surge in shipping rates is attributed to a temporary mismatch in supply and demand, with the logistics system operating smoothly and port efficiency having improved significantly [2] Group 2 - Increased uncertainty and geopolitical risks are leading to a more fragmented trade landscape, with a noticeable shift in trade relationships post the 2018 US-China trade tensions [3] - China's outbound direct investment reached $177.29 billion in 2023, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion directed towards Asian markets [3] - The investment strategy is shifting from acquisitions to greenfield investments, which may enhance trade in intermediate goods between China and these regions [3]

美国国内游同样势头疲软，因为很多美国民众担忧美国即将陷入经济衰退，广泛加征关税也将推动消费 价格快速上涨，所以不得不取消或推迟旅行计划。根据世界旅游及旅行理事会与牛津经济研究院联合分 析得出的最新数据，2025年美国预计将损失高达125亿美元的旅游收入，到2025年年底，美国全年国内 外游客消费支出预计将比2024年减少约7%，较2019年美国旅游业巅峰时期大跌22%。 不明朗的经济前景叠加疲软的航空需求，迫使美国的航空公司不得不采取削减航班班次、停止提供免费 服务等方式控制成本，以保持利润率和现金流。正如达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安所说，"当前全 球贸易面临较大的不确定性，增长趋于停滞。在这种低增长环境下，我们正专注于自己能够掌控的一 切。" （文章来源：经济日报） 美国西南航空公司日前宣布，正式终止其长期实行的"行李免运费"政策。即日起，该航空公司将对首件 托运行李收取35美元费用，第二件收取45美元，除非乘客是高级会员或购买高价机票。 此前，西南航空公司是美国唯一仍为所有旅客提供两件免费托运行李的大型航司，"行李免运费"这一特 色服务曾使其在竞争激烈的美国航空市场中独树一帜。此次取消免运费政策意味着 ...

欧委会5月19日消息：欧委会发布2025年春季经济预测显示，尽管全球政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势加 剧，但预计今年欧盟经济仍将保持温和增长，2026年有望回升。2025年欧盟和欧元区实际GDP预计分别 增长1.1%和0.9%，与2024年基本持平；2026年将分别增长1.5%和1.4%。欧元区的总体通胀率预计将从 2024年的2.4%降至2025年的2.1%及2026年的1.7%。欧盟的通胀率也将从2024年的略高水平下降到2026 年的略低于2%。 贸易碎片化、气候灾害等风险仍对增长构成下行威胁。欧美贸易缓和、新贸易协议推进、国防支出增加 及结构性改革深化等积极因素，将进一步增强欧盟经济的韧性。 出口受全球贸易放缓影响，预计2025年欧盟出口增长0.7%，2026年增长2.1%。不确定性对需求的影响 远大于关税。继2024年固定资本形成总额收缩1.8%之后，投资将温和复苏，目前预计2025年投资将增 长1.5%，2026年将进一步增至2.4%。私人消费方面，预计增长将略高于去年秋季预测，2025年将达到 1.5%，2026年将达到1.6%。这主要得益于2024年强劲的增长势头，以及在通胀压力迅速下降的背景下 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the impact of recent tariff adjustments between the U.S. and China on shipping rates and supply chain dynamics [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Adjustments and Market Reactions - Following the reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China, booking volumes have significantly increased, with spot freight rates rising unexpectedly. Several shipping companies have announced adjustments in surcharges and comprehensive rates [1][5]. - The tariff changes are expected to lead to increased inventory liquidation and replenishment demand in the future, with a neutral to low overall inventory sales ratio in the U.S. and a strong replenishment intention anticipated in the mid-term [1][8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Short-term active booking indicates a probability of concentrated exports or replenishment, which could significantly elevate prices on the U.S. routes and have a mild indirect effect on other shipping routes [1][10]. - Long-term risks to the container shipping supply chain include port congestion due to vessel capacity fluctuations and effective capacity losses, with ongoing congestion already observed on European routes [1][13]. Investment Opportunities - Large shipping companies like COSCO and Orient Overseas International are viewed favorably due to their network asset value and stable shareholder returns. Smaller shipping companies are also expected to benefit from regional cargo growth due to trade fragmentation [3][4][17]. - The ongoing trend of industrial chain transfer is irreversible, with a notable shift in trade routes expected to Southeast Asia, Canada, and Mexico, which may enhance these regional markets [3][19][20]. Price Elasticity and Market Performance - The concentrated replenishment on U.S. routes is likely to lead to price increases, which will indirectly affect other routes such as Europe, the Mediterranean, and South America. The overall price elasticity is expected to be more influenced by supply-side disruptions [1][10][18]. - The mismatch between nominal and local supply and demand on U.S. routes is anticipated to drive prices up in the short term, with significant declines in booking volumes reported [11][12]. Long-term Supply Chain Risks - The container shipping supply chain may face long-term disruptions due to effective capacity losses and supply-side disturbances, with potential for increased market volatility and price elasticity in the coming months [12][13]. - The congestion at U.S. ports is expected to further reduce effective capacity and increase transportation costs, with implications for the overall supply chain [14]. Future Market Trends - The ongoing trade fragmentation trend is likely to accelerate, with a significant portion of trade expected to shift through alternative ports post-tariff exemption period [19][20]. - The shortage of container equipment is projected to become more pronounced, negatively impacting effective capacity turnover and pushing up transportation prices [16]. Other Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of monitoring structural opportunities in both large and small shipping companies, with specific recommendations for companies like SITC International and China Logistics [4][21]. - The oil shipping market is also discussed, indicating a positive supply-demand outlook for VLCCs, driven by OPEC's production adjustments and the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil [22][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities in the Asian container shipping market [2]. Core Insights - The Asian shipping market is experiencing a balanced supply and demand, with a projected CAGR of 6.85% for container transport volume from 2001 to 2024, driven by regional economic growth and trade agreements like RCEP [2][14]. - The report highlights the differentiated strategies of major players such as SeaLand, Yang Ming, and Jin Jiang, emphasizing their operational strengths and market positioning [2][3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand in the Asian Market - Demand: The Asian route is the second-largest segment in global container shipping, with a projected volume of 65.29 million TEU in 2024, accounting for 30.7% of global container trade [14][16]. - Supply: The growth rate of container ships under 3000 TEU is expected to be lower than the global average, with a forecasted capacity growth of 0.59% in 2025 and a decline of 2.97% in 2026 [19][20]. Comparison of Major Shipping Companies - Capacity: SeaLand leads with a total capacity of 180,000 TEU, followed by Yang Ming with 113,000 TEU and Jin Jiang with 53,000 TEU [3][53]. - Growth Rates: From 2020 to 2024, Jin Jiang's total capacity grew by 102%, Yang Ming by 59%, and SeaLand by 39% [54][59]. - Revenue Structure: SeaLand's revenue distribution in 2024 is 48% from Greater China, 29% from Southeast Asia, and 17% from Japan [4][68]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - Profitability: SeaLand's net profit margin fluctuated between 21% and 47% from 2020 to 2024, while Yang Ming's ranged from 2% to 54% [5][6]. - Asset Turnover: SeaLand's total asset turnover ranged from 0.85 to 1.42, indicating efficient asset utilization compared to its peers [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Asian shipping market is a high-quality segment within the industry, with companies like SeaLand and Yang Ming expected to benefit from ongoing trade dynamics and regional demand growth [6][52].

Core Viewpoint - The report advocates for elevating the construction of China's "Great Central Region" to a national strategic level, emphasizing the need for a shift towards domestic demand-driven growth in response to global trade fragmentation and external economic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Framework - The "Great Central Region" strategy focuses on ten provinces and cities, including Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hunan, covering over 500 million people and accounting for more than 30% of the national economy [2][3]. - This strategy aims to break the dependency on coastal development paths, positioning the central region as a new growth hub and enhancing economic resilience against external uncertainties [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Potential - The report highlights that the ten provinces have a combined population of 540 million and a GDP of approximately 42 trillion yuan, representing 39% of the national population and 31% of the economic total [3][4]. - The potential for economic growth in the Great Central Region is significant, with projections indicating that the region could release trillions of dollars in growth potential as it transitions towards a higher GDP per capita [4]. Group 3: Consumption Dynamics - The diverse consumption culture and preferences in the Great Central Region are seen as key drivers for upgrading domestic demand, capable of supporting high-quality goods and fostering new consumption categories [3][4]. - The region is also identified as a core area for historical culture and tourism resources, which significantly contribute to consumption growth and the emergence of new consumer IPs [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to elevate the construction of China's "Great Inland" as a national strategy, aiming to activate the potential of inland markets and create a virtuous cycle of development that permeates from coastal areas to inland regions and from cities to rural areas [1][4] - The "Great Inland Strategy" focuses on ten provinces and cities, covering over 500 million people and accounting for more than 30% of the national economic output, thereby restructuring the economic landscape to prioritize inland growth [2][3] Economic Context - The report highlights the shift towards an internal demand-driven economy in China, as traditional investment-driven growth faces diminishing returns and increasing debt pressures, with domestic consumption contributing over 80% to economic growth in the past five years [1][4] - The current economic environment, marked by trade fragmentation and external uncertainties, necessitates a strategic pivot towards enhancing domestic demand to mitigate external shocks [1][2] Structural Framework - The "Great Inland" is defined through a three-tier structure: the core layer (the "Inland Triangle" of Chengdu-Chongqing and Xi'an), the secondary layer (urban clusters including Zhengzhou, Wuhan, and others), and the extended layer that connects these urban clusters across the ten provinces [2][3] - This structure aims to facilitate resource integration and functional transmission from core strategic points to broader regions, leveraging the large-scale population and market advantages of the ten provinces [3] Growth Potential - The report projects significant growth potential for the "Great Inland," estimating that the region could release trillions of dollars in economic growth as it transitions towards a modernized economy with per capita GDP expected to rise to between $20,000 and $30,000 [4] - The diverse consumption culture and preferences in the "Great Inland" are seen as key drivers for upgrading domestic demand, with the region's historical and cultural resources further stimulating consumption growth [3][4]