- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IC had the largest increase of 2.09%, while IH experienced the largest decline of -1.65%[3][11] - The average trading volume of all contracts increased compared to the previous week, with IM showing the largest increase of 46.74% and IH the smallest at 23.37%[3][11] - The basis rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH as of last Friday's close were -0.183%, -0.271%, -0.650%, and 0.151%, respectively, with IF and IM narrowing their discounts, IC deepening its discount, and IH expanding its premium[3][11] - The intertemporal spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 54.00%, 9.70%, 8.00%, and 41.50% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IF and IH at normal levels and IC and IM at relatively low levels[4][12] - The report calculates the theoretical arbitrage opportunities for IF contracts, indicating that with an annualized return of 5% and 21 trading days remaining, the basis rate for positive and negative arbitrage would need to reach 0.74% and -1.35%, respectively, but no such opportunities currently exist[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year suggest that the impact on index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices will be 80.98, 92.22, 72.38, and 69.57, respectively[4][12] - The report outlines a method for predicting dividend points based on historical dividend patterns, using formulas that incorporate EPS, payout ratios, and component stock weights[58][59][60]

Core Viewpoint - The primary investment opportunity identified is in resource commodities, particularly precious metals, which have shown strong performance in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios since November of last year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals like silver, copper, and gold have led global asset performance, with a significant acceleration in their market activity observed in the past few weeks [1]. - The market is currently pricing in a medium to long-term supply-demand imbalance and expectations of a weaker dollar, with short-term catalysts being the anticipated easing of monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. - The Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program introduced in December is believed to have a more substantial impact on liquidity than initially recognized, contributing to a new bullish trend in commodities [1]. Group 2: Comparative Asset Analysis - Other major asset classes face specific concerns: U.S. equities are at risk of over-investment due to AI capital expenditures diverging from returns on invested capital; European equities are hindered by economic weakness and slow fiscal policy implementation; Japanese equities struggle with conflicting monetary and fiscal policies; emerging markets are affected by tariff uncertainties and a slowing weak dollar narrative [2]. - In the bond market, increased government debt issuance due to fiscal expansion is expected to suppress bond prices, while oil prices lack upward momentum due to an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, liquidity improvements and expectations of monetary easing are driving commodity price increases, with an estimated $600 billion liquidity boost expected from RMP and TGA releases [3]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing, although this is contingent on economic data trends [3]. - Mid-term demand for resources is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with copper demand projected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - A prolonged weak dollar environment is anticipated, which will support commodity prices as the U.S. economic growth potential faces constraints [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate resource competition, leading to supply-side disruptions as countries increase their strategic reserves of various metals [5].

引言： 过去一年，资本市场在预期与现实的交错中颠簸前行，科技浪潮与价值回归的叙事轮番上演。 站在新周期的起点，如何在复杂的宏观图景与快速轮动的风格中，锚定具备持续性与韧性的投资主线？ 答案或许正隐藏于一个看似传统、实则正经历深刻变革的领域——资源品。全球格局演变、产业周期律 动与国内政策导向，正共同将资源品推向资产配置的舞台中央。 ●权益市场展望：均衡中的主线与轮动 展望新的一年，A股市场全年风格有望更加均衡。 一方面，经过深度调整、估值具备吸引力的部分价值类板块，有望在经济预期修复与高股息策略追捧下 获得重估机会；另一方面，科技成长作为中长期产业升级的核心方向，其行情并未终结，但内核正在发 生深刻转变。市场将从对前沿技术概念的普适性炒作，迈入价值兑现期，业绩的证实与否将成为分野的 关键，真正具备技术壁垒、商业化落地能力和清晰成长路径的公司方能脱颖而出。 短期来看，市场风格可能呈现切换特征。科技主线在经历快速上涨后，可能进入震荡整固阶段，资金或 阶段性轮动向估值偏低、仓位不高、且具备边际改善逻辑的板块。其中，资源品板块，因其独特的全球 供需属性与国内政策催化，正吸引越来越多投资者的目光，成为承接资金、平衡组合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported a 62% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $57 billion, highlighting the increasing focus on technology giants while a deeper investment logic centered around resource commodities is emerging as a stable anchor amidst uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "seven giants" of the US stock market now account for 47% of the S&P 500 index, with AI-related stocks reaching historical concentration levels [1] - The demand for computing power in the AI sector is expected to increase electricity consumption, prompting significant upgrades to power grid infrastructure and stimulating demand for upstream raw materials like copper [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The investment logic for resource commodities is characterized by a "triple alpha" appeal: 1. "AI technology cycle" bullish options benefiting directly from electricity, cooling, and hardware demand 2. "Stagflation environment" bearish options that hedge against the decline in fiat currency purchasing power 3. Monetary expansion and energy transition leading to an upward shift in the value center of resource commodities [1] - Products focused on the resource sector have demonstrated the ability to navigate through economic cycles [1] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Shangyin Resource Selected Mixed Fund (Class A code: 023448; Class C code: 023449) has achieved a cumulative return of 58.67% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark of 36.68% as of November 14, 2025 [2]

Focus Review - China's October export performance was disappointing, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, significantly below the market expectation of 3% growth, and a previous increase of 8.3% [1] - Imports grew by 1% in October, down from a previous increase of 7.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $90.07 billion, slightly lower than the previous $90.45 billion [1] - For the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade maintained steady growth, with a total value of $520.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, including exports of $308.47 billion (up 6.2%) and imports of $211.99 billion (down 0.9%) [1] Equity Market - Morgan Asset Management expressed an optimistic outlook for risk assets over the next 6 to 18 months, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, gradual easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - CITIC Construction Investment is bullish on resource products, anticipating price increases driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and domestic replenishment cycles [2] - China Europe Fund suggests that the market's struggle around the 4000-point mark reflects policy signals, increased risk appetite, and long-term capital inflows, with a focus on technology and economic cycle resonance investment opportunities [3] Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlighted that 2026 will be a critical year for the asset-liability repair of Chinese real estate companies, with expectations of a long-term profit bottom for some firms [4] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the liquor industry is undergoing an accelerated clearing adjustment, with inventory levels decreasing rapidly after reaching a bottom, suggesting potential price rebounds [6] - Penghua Fund is optimistic about the domestic economy over the next two to three years, supported by low interest rates and a shift in asset allocation towards equities, favoring high-quality dividend assets [6] Macro and Fixed Income Market - Huatai Securities recommended a focus on medium to short-term credit bonds, with a preference for bonds with strong demand and good odds [7] - CICC anticipates continued downward pressure on exports, necessitating more policy support, with expectations for accelerated monetary policy easing [8] - Bosera Fund noted that the central bank's actions to ease funding fluctuations and a friendly domestic financial policy environment support improvements in the bond market supply-demand structure [8] Asset Allocation Outlook - As of November, domestic liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential fluctuations in external Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, leading to a possible rebalancing of market styles back to a barbell structure [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the latest heavy holdings of public FOFs (Fund of Funds) as revealed in the 2025 Q3 reports, with bond funds being the primary focus, accounting for over half of the holdings [1][3] - The top five funds favored by FOFs in Q3 include Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, Hua An Gold ETF, Ping An Zhong Dai - Zhong Gao Deng Gong Si Dai Li Cha Yin Zi ETF, Bosera Zhong Dai 0-3 Nian Guo Kai Hang ETF, and Bosera Shang Zheng 30 Nian Qi Guo Dai ETF [1][3] - As of the end of Q3, the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF had a market value held by FOFs exceeding 3.29 billion yuan, making it the highest valued fund held by FOFs [3][4] Group 2 - The number of bond funds in the top 50 heavy holdings of FOFs reached 31, representing over half of the total, indicating a strong preference for bond investments [3] - The most increased fund in Q3 was the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, which saw an increase of 1.647 billion yuan in holdings, bringing its total to 3.29 billion yuan [4] - FOFs have also shown interest in actively managed equity funds, with the top holdings being Yi Fang Da Ke Rong and Hua Xia Chuang Xin Qian Yan A, with market values of 590 million yuan and 485 million yuan respectively [3][4] Group 3 - FOF managers have expressed confidence in the A-share market, with a focus on gold-related funds and increased allocations in technology and resource sectors [6][7] - The manager of Guotai Youxuan Lihang Fund emphasized the significant opportunity for gold and silver prices, while also noting the potential for the rare earth industry due to new regulatory policies [6] - The manager of Zhong Ou Yujian Pension 2035 Fund highlighted a long-term asset allocation strategy, maintaining optimism about consumer-related sectors and overseas bond markets [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the agricultural chemical industry, specifically focusing on the potassium and phosphorus fertilizer markets, as well as the pesticide sector [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments Potassium Fertilizer Market - Global potassium fertilizer supply has decreased due to reduced production in Russia and Belarus, and a year-on-year production decline of 20% in China from January to August [1][3]. - Potassium fertilizer demand has exceeded expectations, with a current CFR price of $346 per ton in China, which is lower than prices in Southeast Asia and Brazil [1][4]. - Domestic potassium fertilizer prices have risen to 3,200 CNY per ton in Q3, an increase of 200 CNY from Q2, with international prices also showing significant increases [2][4]. - The forecast indicates that potassium fertilizer prices will remain high through Q4 and into Q1 of the following year, with a positive outlook extending at least until mid-2027 due to delayed production from major suppliers [5]. Phosphorus Fertilizer Market - The long-term price center for phosphorus ore is expected to remain high, supported by rigid supply [1][6]. - As of the end of August, the price for 30% grade phosphorus ore in Hubei was 1,040 CNY, remaining stable compared to the previous month [6]. - Phosphorus chemical products have shown mixed performance, with lithium iron phosphate production increasing year-on-year but slightly decreasing month-on-month [9]. Pesticide Industry - The pesticide industry has experienced a downturn over the past three years, but there are signs of recovery as the price index has begun to rebound [12]. - China's pesticide exports are expected to continue increasing by a double-digit percentage on top of a 30% growth from the previous year, despite being in a seasonal lull [13]. - Glyphosate prices have risen from 23,000 CNY per ton to 27,300 CNY per ton, driven by increased overseas planting areas and strong replenishment demand [14][15]. Additional Important Content - The new mineral resources law aims to promote the rational development and utilization of mineral resources, which is expected to support high-quality development in the mining sector [10]. - Companies with rich phosphorus reserves, such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions [11]. - The overall outlook for the pesticide industry is optimistic, with expectations of price increases for more pesticide varieties by the end of the year and into the next year [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the agricultural chemical industry, particularly in potassium and phosphorus fertilizers, as well as the pesticide market.