随着原材料价格回落，制造业的成本压力有所缓解。ISM原材料支付价格指数下滑近4点至58，为今年 以来最低水平，自4月关税正式实施以来累计下降近12点。Capital Economics北美经济学家Thomas Ryan 指出，"价格指数降至58，是关税实施以来最低水平，已回到过去10年均值附近，这说明关税导致的制 造业成本压力最糟糕阶段可能已经过去。" 美国供应管理协会(ISM)周一公布数据显示，10月制造业PMI指数下降0.4点至48.7，依然低于荣枯线 50，且今年多数时间都在窄幅区间内徘徊。 制造业产出指数大跌2.8点至48.2，成为三个月内第二次进入收缩区间。由于订单不足，企业人力需求持 续低迷，ISM就业指数已连续九个月萎缩，虽较9月略有改善，但仍在收缩区间。 美国工厂活动在10月份继续收缩，至此已连续八个月陷入萎缩区间，生产放缓与需求乏力持续拖累制造 业。 10月新增订单连续第二个月萎缩，尽管收缩幅度较9月有所放缓，但积压订单仍继续减少。制造商库存 创一年最大降幅，而客户库存依然偏低，理论上为后续订单反弹提供空间，但短期内需求仍显疲弱。 分析人士指出，在关税政策摇摆、全球制造业放缓与美国企业资本支 ...

批发业方面，8月收入环比下降1.2%，按销量计算则下降1.3%。汽车及零部件、食品和饮料等关键品类 销售疲软，成为拖累整体表现的主要因素。同期，批发库存上升0.7%，显示需求端乏力与供应链调整 并存。 目前来看，美国对钢铁、铝和汽车等行业的关税措施，已对加拿大出口导向型制造业构成实质性冲击。 此前数据显示，加拿大7月就业岗位大幅流失，其中制造业就业人数同比减少近万人，与当前销售数据 形成呼应。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月15日电受美国关税政策持续影响，加拿大关键出口行业表现疲软。加拿大统计局周三 公布的数据显示，8月制造业销售额环比下降1%，批发业收入下滑1.2%，凸显外部贸易压力对国内经济 的传导效应。 制造业下滑主要由运输设备销售减少所致。数据显示，按销量计算（剔除价格因素），制造业销售下降 1.5%。运输设备板块的回落，部分源于7月创纪录增长后的正常回调——当月航空产品与零部件产量显 著下降，同时汽车及零部件销售亦明显减少。 尽管面临美国对铝产品加征关税的贸易壁垒，基础金属板块仍录得显著增长，其中铝销售额环比跃升 45%。这一逆势上扬未能抵消其他领域的疲软，整体制造业库存总量仍增加0.3 ...

Group 1 - The core impact of the tariffs is evident, with a significant decline in U.S. imports from Europe, dropping from $56.6 billion in May to $45.2 billion in June, marking the lowest level since February 2024 [2] - The automotive sector is the hardest hit, with a year-on-year decline of 36% in European exports to the U.S. in June due to a 25% additional tariff [3][6] - Other sectors also experienced declines, with transportation equipment and chemicals seeing year-on-year drops of 30% and 19% respectively, while some sectors like base metals and agricultural products remained resilient due to tariff exemptions [7] Group 2 - The report warns that the observed decline is still mild compared to the potential overall losses predicted by models, indicating that more severe impacts are yet to come [4][9] - Starting August 1, the average tariff rate on European exports to the U.S. increased from 12% in June to 16%, with the current 15% rate being more damaging than the previous 10% during the tariff suspension period [11] - The negative impacts of tariffs may have a lagging effect, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, where a significant drop in exports is anticipated as inventory is consumed and tariffs potentially rise further [11]

美国对欧洲商品加征关税的影响正在显现。 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行最新发布的报告显示，6月美国从欧洲的进口出现首次明显下滑，从5月份的566亿美元降至452亿美元，创2024年2月以来 最低水平。 其中，汽车行业遭受最严重冲击。受25%额外关税影响，欧洲对美汽车出口在6月份同比暴跌36%。 德银在报告中警告称，目前观察到的下降幅度相比模型预测仍然温和，更严重的冲击尚未到来。随着8月7日"对等关税"正式生效，以及"抢出口"效应的消 退，欧洲对美出口的下降趋势预计将加速。 汽车业首当其冲 报告数据显示，6月欧洲对美汽车出口同比锐减36%，成为关税冲击下受创最深的行业。 除了汽车业，其他多个领域也感受到了寒意。其他运输设备和化学品出口分别录得30%和19%的同比降幅。 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。 更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】 一些表面上保持韧性的行业，如基础金属和农产品，其稳健表现主要得益于大部分产品被豁免关税。报告指出，在这些行业中，被纳入"对等关税"的商 品，其对美出口量在同期也出现了7%至18%的"显著下滑"。 ...

Group 1 - The US-China trade talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement with several positive agreements, including a reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods from an average of 27% to 16%, still historically high [2][3] - The economic impact of tariffs is being monitored, with projections indicating a potential 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation due to tariff adjustments [3][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with concerns about the potential for the US to revert to previous tariff policies, which could further impact economic stability [3][5] Group 2 - The trade dynamics show a trend of "import grabbing" in the US, with significant increases in imports observed in the first quarter, leading to higher inventory levels [6][7] - Certain US export sectors, particularly those reliant on foreign intermediate goods, are expected to face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs, notably in the petroleum, metals, and transportation equipment industries [7][8] - The inflationary effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with consumer price indices reflecting the impact of increased import costs, although the response to tariffs has been slower than anticipated [9][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is likely to elevate financial pressures and affect consumer and business investment sentiment, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth [11][12] - The labor market indicators suggest upward pressure on unemployment rates, which could signal a weakening in the consumer-employment cycle critical for economic health [13][14] - The overall economic trajectory is expected to shift from "stagflation" to a potential slowdown, with ongoing monitoring of key economic indicators necessary to assess future risks [15][16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]