超额收益

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公募新规下,主动权益基金如何应对?
2025-06-30 01:02
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic public equity fund industry in China, focusing on the performance and management of actively managed equity funds under new regulatory guidelines [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Performance Issues of Active Equity Funds** - Active equity funds have high annualized tracking error, with a median range of 10% to 15%, indicating poor stability [1][5]. - As of the end of 2024 and May 2025, the proportion of fund managers underperforming their benchmarks by 10% over three years is 66% and 54%, respectively, leading to significant risks of performance-related pay declines [1][5]. 2. **Mismatch in Investment Style** - The underperformance of active equity funds is attributed to a mismatch between market preferences for dividend value and the growth-oriented focus of active management [1][8]. - Long-term, the differences in excess returns due to style deviations are diminishing [10]. 3. **Need for Benchmark Adjustment** - Fund managers are encouraged to adjust performance benchmarks to better align with fund characteristics, such as changing from the CSI 300 to a growth index, which could significantly reduce portfolio deviation and enhance performance stability [1][11]. 4. **Regulatory Emphasis on Performance Benchmarks** - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of performance benchmarks in its action plan for high-quality development of public funds, including guidelines for setting, modifying, and disclosing benchmarks [3]. 5. **Current Benchmarking Practices** - The current benchmarking practices in the domestic public equity fund industry are criticized for being overly concentrated on the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices, which fails to effectively differentiate product tracks [1][4][7]. 6. **Strategies for Improving Tracking Accuracy** - Two main strategies are proposed to address the poor tracking of benchmarks: adjusting performance benchmarks to reflect actual investment strategies and optimizing portfolio management to better track established benchmarks [6][13]. 7. **Impact of Market Conditions on Performance** - The performance of active equity funds is highly variable, performing well in bull markets but lagging significantly in bear markets [5][8]. - Style deviations may yield short-term excess returns but can lead to increased risks and potential losses in bear markets [9][10]. 8. **Optimizing Fund Management Approaches** - Fund managers can enhance performance by combining active management with index tracking, which has shown better results in terms of excess return probability and annualized returns [2][12][15]. - Specific optimization methods include constraining industry and market capitalization deviations and selecting optimal stock weights [13][15]. Other Important Content - The call highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of performance benchmarks and their implications for fund management and investor outcomes [4][12]. - The discussion also touches on the importance of aligning fund strategies with market conditions and investor expectations to improve overall fund performance [16].
八成胜率,当被动投资装上主动引擎,指增ETF正在焕发第二春
市值风云· 2025-06-24 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The traditional divide between ETFs and actively managed funds is being disrupted by the emergence of enhanced index ETFs, which combine the advantages of both product types [2][23]. Group 1: Enhanced Index ETFs Overview - Enhanced index ETFs track indices but allow fund managers to adjust the composition and weight of the underlying stocks to achieve outperformance [2]. - Since the launch of the first enhanced index ETF in December 2021, the product has rapidly expanded, with 35 such ETFs in the A-share market by May 2025, totaling a scale of 6.72 billion [2]. - In the U.S., actively managed ETFs reached a size of 857.9 billion, accounting for 8.1% of the total ETF market, indicating significant growth potential for enhanced index ETFs [2]. Group 2: Performance of Enhanced Index ETFs - Among 19 enhanced index ETFs analyzed, 16 have generated excess returns, with the 500 Enhanced ETF leading at 6.1% [4]. - The 500 Enhanced ETF (561550.SH) and the China Securities 500 Enhanced ETF (563030.SH) have both achieved over 5% excess returns this year [4][6]. - The top ten holdings of the China Securities 500 Enhanced ETF have an average increase of 8.3%, with notable performers like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining rising 73% this year [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Prospects - The small-cap enhanced index ETFs, such as the China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF, have shown explosive growth, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% and a 328.7% rise in scale [9]. - The development of enhanced index ETFs is driven by both policy and technological advancements, with new regulations promoting the growth of index-based investments [10]. - Fund companies are increasingly adopting AI-driven models to enhance investment strategies, moving from traditional multi-factor approaches to machine learning [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Considerations - Investors are advised to adopt a core-satellite strategy, using broad-based enhanced index ETFs as the core of their portfolio while allocating to sector-specific or style-specific ETFs for additional exposure [14]. - The enhanced index ETFs focused on technology, such as the Sci-Tech 50 Enhanced ETF, offer significant policy benefits but require careful consideration of industry cycles [15][19]. - The Sci-Tech index has shown high elasticity, with a beta of 1.18 and a cumulative increase of 17.2% since its base date, indicating its potential for capturing innovation opportunities [16][19].
创金合信基金董梁:指数增强基金获更多关注 看好恒生科技、红利、科创板综合指数的布局机会
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-23 07:26
Group 1 - The number of newly established index-enhanced funds has reached 76 this year, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a growing trend in index-based investment [1] - The increase in public funds' interest in index-enhanced funds is attributed to three main reasons: disillusionment with star fund managers, attractive new indices launched by index companies, and regulatory encouragement for index-based investments [1][2] - Leading fund sales platforms are focusing on index-enhanced funds due to their potential to outperform benchmark indices, reflecting a shift towards mainstream index-based investment strategies [1][2] Group 2 - Small-cap index-enhanced funds have shown impressive performance this year, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 outperforming large-cap indices such as the CSI 300, making it easier to achieve excess returns [2] - Excess returns from index-enhanced funds primarily come from stock selection models that overweight and underweight index constituents, as well as capturing short-term market styles [2] - Challenges for index-enhanced funds include strategy crowding due to the expansion of these products and frequent market style shifts, which may dilute excess returns [2] Group 3 - Current investment opportunities are seen in the Hang Seng Tech Index, Dividend Index, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index, as Chinese assets are perceived to be undervalued compared to global markets [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index includes core assets from China's technology and internet sectors, which are significantly undervalued compared to the Nasdaq Index, presenting a potential for substantial gains upon valuation re-rating [3] - The Dividend Index has shown strong long-term performance with an annualized return of around 14% since 2014, benefiting from the current low-interest-rate environment [3] - Investment in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index is considered valuable due to its broad coverage and representation in the technology sector, which is expected to be a key investment theme in the coming years [3]
不出手的耐心!姜诚最近交流细剖超额收益的来源……
聪明投资者· 2025-06-23 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The core competency of value investors often lies in patience, particularly the patience to refrain from making impulsive decisions [18][19]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The performance of the managed products has been relatively stable, with several funds outperforming the market despite a lackluster overall performance in 2023 [2][3]. - The top holdings remain consistent, primarily in traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to these industries [2][3]. - The long-term annualized return of the flagship product managed since December 2018 exceeds 16% [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The source of excess returns is attributed to a combination of establishing a forward-looking advantage in information, deeper analysis, and different perspectives [8]. - The investment approach emphasizes acquiring high-quality assets at low prices, which is more feasible when the majority do not share the same valuation standards [5][6]. - The belief that good stocks and returns are achieved through endurance and patience is a recurring theme [20]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current market environment has seen prolonged low performance in cyclical industries, which has exceeded most investors' expectations [10]. - The concept of "this time is different" is highlighted as a cautionary note, indicating that prolonged low performance can delay cash returns and diminish value over time [11]. - The outlook for the real estate sector suggests that risks may not be fully cleared, with a preference for a cautious approach until 2025 [13]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - In the banking sector, while the long-term contraction of interest margins is not yet over, the current pricing remains acceptable based on long-term perspectives [14][15]. - The construction industry has shown signs of cash flow improvement, aligning with expectations, which reduces concerns [15]. - The chemical sector faces challenges with many companies operating at a loss, yet some are still managing to generate profits through cost-cutting measures [15]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - The development of AI is viewed as an irreversible trend, although its immediate impact may be overestimated [16]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach to emerging sectors, emphasizing the need for thorough research and understanding of price dynamics [22].
基金经理请回答 | 对话姜诚:价值投资的超额收益,究竟源自什么?
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-19 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the balance between idealism and realism in investment management, highlighting that achieving ideal outcomes requires addressing real-world challenges [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is rooted in value investing, aiming to help more people achieve financial success through this approach [7]. - The gap between ideal and reality is acknowledged, with the understanding that while ideals may be distant, practical solutions must be found to bridge this gap [5][6]. - The focus is on making ideals a reality rather than allowing them to remain unattainable [6]. Group 2: Performance Evaluation - Performance evaluation is not solely based on quantitative metrics like net asset value growth but also includes client experience and satisfaction [7][10]. - The goal is to increase the proportion of clients who earn money, with ongoing exploration of what constitutes "doing well" in investment management [7][10]. - The anxiety regarding future performance and client trust is acknowledged, emphasizing the need for consistent results to build and maintain trust [9][10]. Group 3: Market Perspective - The discussion includes insights on the banking sector, particularly regarding interest margins, which have been narrowing but may experience short-term recovery due to recent changes in deposit interest rates [31][32]. - The investment strategy for banking stocks is based on a long-term perspective rather than short-term trends, with a focus on acceptable pricing despite ongoing challenges [32][33]. Group 4: Decision-Making Process - The decision-making process for investments is described as an intersection of price and understanding, where both elements must align for a purchase to be justified [26][28]. - The importance of thorough research and understanding of market conditions is emphasized, particularly in relation to emerging sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [26][28]. Group 5: Strategy and Individuality - Investment strategies are not ranked as better or worse; rather, their effectiveness depends on the individual investor's characteristics and goals [17][18]. - The alignment between a fund manager's strategy and their personal attributes is crucial for achieving successful outcomes [19][20].
做显而易见的事,赚不到超额收益!霍华德·马克斯最新谈:投资的反人性智慧
聪明投资者· 2025-06-16 06:54
以下文章来源于IN咖 ,作者热爱学习的 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 "想获得超额收益,绝不可能靠做那些显而易见的事。" 霍华德·马克斯上周接受The Motley Fool联合创始人及分析师团队直播对谈,交流了50多分钟。 提问者没有将问题聚焦在宏观经济以及政策的评价中,而是回到霍华德·马克斯的舒适区域,关于投资 的本质和常识。 霍华德坦言,真正重要的,永远是两件事: 你有没有买入能持续增长的公司?你借的钱,是不是借给 了能还的人? 这番话,对今天的我们尤其有参考价值。当"创新药""潮玩""AI"等概念在不同市场反复掀起热潮时, 我们是否真正理解了自己在买什么、为什么买? 尤其在港股这样估值极低、但不确定性极高的市场中,更需要分清:哪些是"被错杀",哪些是"看上去 便宜但其实很贵"。 霍华德强调,真正出色的投资人,往往是那些"情绪冷静、不被新闻带节奏"的人。 他也引用了一句幸运饼干里的话:"谨慎的人很少出错,但也写不出伟大的诗。"幽默之余,道理朴实深 刻。 参与提问的三位主持轮番上阵,从投资者心理误区、反人性行为机制,到团队选人标准、长期收益来 源……层层递进,霍华德也很耐心,娓娓道来。 他反反 ...
公募竞逐指数增强赛道 年内新成立产品数量同比增长438%
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-06-15 16:19
Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of index-enhanced funds in China is driven by policy support, increased investor demand, and the unique advantages of these funds, with a significant rise in the number of new products and total fundraising amounts in 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Growth of Index-Enhanced Funds - As of June 15, 2023, 70 new index-enhanced funds were established, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 438%, with total fundraising exceeding 35.8 billion yuan [1][2]. - The number of index-enhanced funds established in 2023 is the highest in recent years, surpassing previous years' totals [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Multiple factors contribute to the rapid development of index-enhanced funds, including policy guidance, regulatory mechanisms, and a structural shift in investor demand towards transparent and excess return products [3]. - Index-enhanced funds are positioned between passive index funds and traditional active funds, with a focus on achieving stable excess returns [3]. Group 3: Market Composition and Trends - There are currently 366 index-enhanced funds in the market, with over 60% focusing on broad-based indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI A500 [3][4]. - The CSI A500 index has seen a significant increase in the number of index-enhanced funds, with 38 out of the 70 new funds established in 2023 being CSI A500 index-enhanced funds [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Fund managers are increasingly adopting quantitative strategies to achieve stable excess returns, which is seen as a key path for both large and small public fund institutions [5]. - The future of index-enhanced funds is expected to become a crucial business segment for public fund institutions, potentially becoming a decisive factor in their core competitiveness [5][6].
投资大家谈 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
点拾投资· 2025-06-13 04:58
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns about Value Investing - The anxiety surrounding the application of value investing stems from concerns about its ability to outperform the market and whether investors will trust active management again [2][3]. - It is a misconception that all investors can achieve excess returns; the total returns of all investors equal the market returns minus transaction costs [2]. - The rise of index funds is a result of diminishing excess returns rather than the disappearance of excess returns [2]. Group 2: Opportunities for Excess Returns - The ability to achieve excess returns is influenced by the similarity of investment strategies among investors and the differences in their investment capabilities [3]. - A-share market still presents opportunities for excess returns, as not all investors have the same capabilities [3]. Group 3: Building Trust with Investors - Gaining trust from investors is more challenging than outperforming the market; communication during downturns is crucial [4]. - The key to regaining trust lies in aligning the returns of investors with the net asset value of the fund [3][4]. Group 4: Managing Volatility - Many investors lack the patience for long-term holding and tend to trade too frequently, which harms their returns [5]. - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of loss for investors [5]. - The challenge is to find ways to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [5]. Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that may not align with reality, leading to flawed logic in their investment narratives [6]. - A balanced approach that combines realistic methods with idealistic goals is essential for successful value investing [7].
中泰资管天团 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-12 11:31
再三被问到这个问题时,才发现这背后不是对价值投资本身的质疑,而是对它在资产管理行业中应用前景 的焦虑,包括对价值投资还能否战胜市场的焦虑,还有对持有人能否再次相信主动管理的焦虑。这样的焦 虑事出有因,应该认真对待。 最近的交流中,我被问到最多的问题是:价值投资在A股适不适用?问题让人意外,因为答案是显而易见 的——适用。只要有透明的价格和价值可以被评估的资产,价值投资就适用,它不局限于股市,更不存在 A股例外论。至于什么样的资产是好资产,什么样的价格是好价格,可以仁者见仁智者见智。 对超额收益的担忧或许是多虑,几个常被忽略的事实给予我们信心:一是所有投资者作为一个整体不会有 超额收益,所有人的总收益等于市场总收益减去交易成本;二是总有人能够获得超额收益,这不取决于他 们做的是哪种投资,而取决于他们做得如何;三是指数基金大发展其实是超额收益衰减的结果,而不是超 额收益消失的原因。指数是基准,不是对手,主动投资者不会把钱输给"指数",只会输给其他主动投资 者。主动投资者是一体的两面,一个人没法通过左脚踩右脚登天,也无法通过敲自己的头把自己钉到地 里。 有多少人能够获得超额收益以及能够获得多少超额收益,跟投资者投资 ...
中泰资管天团 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-12 09:35
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets, and it is not limited to the stock market or specific to A-shares [2] Group 1: Concerns about Excess Returns - There is anxiety regarding the future application of value investing in asset management, including whether it can outperform the market and whether investors can trust active management again [2] - The concern about excess returns may be overblown, as it is a fact that all investors as a whole cannot achieve excess returns; total returns equal market returns minus transaction costs [2] - There will always be individuals who can achieve excess returns, which depends on their execution rather than the type of investment they make [2] Group 2: Active Management and Investor Trust - The challenge lies not only in whether fund managers can outperform the market but also in regaining investors' trust in active management [3] - Trust is asymmetric; while fund managers may remain calm during market downturns, investors often struggle to maintain composure [3][4] - The key to regaining trust in the fund industry is to align the returns of investors with the net asset value of the funds [4] Group 3: Communication and Performance - It is relatively easier for fund managers to outperform the market over a market cycle, but consistently doing so each year is challenging [6] - Effective communication during underperformance is crucial, as it is more beneficial than boasting during high-performance periods [6] - The approach of "accompanying" investors to foster long-term trust is one method being employed [6] Group 4: Volatility and Returns - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of investor losses [7] - The relationship between short-term volatility and long-term returns in the A-share market suggests that reducing volatility does not necessarily lead to lower returns [7] - The real challenge is finding methods to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [7] Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that can be challenged by reality, leading to errors in logic and assumptions [8] - A balanced approach that combines realism with idealism is necessary to achieve the goal of value investing and helping more people profit from it [8]