可美方此前对于自己能战胜中国的那种盲目自信，又是从何而来的呢？ 这篇文章的观点很简单也很直白：大量证据表明，中国不会像一些美国人宣扬的"陷入困境"，——而美 国，应该放弃"战胜中国"的想法。 这篇由彭博社记者克里斯托弗·比姆（Christopher Beam）撰写的文章，先是以今年全球最关注的中美贸 易博弈为切入点，指出今年4月的时候美方曾信心满满地认为中国会输，但在随后的几个月里，人们却 发现"虚张声势"的其实是美方自己，而中方则在这场较量之中，充分地展现了自己的实力。 有学者还认为，这场较量同时也证明，在中国不同于美国的体制下，同样能孕育出一套既可行又可持续 的发展模式。 随着2026年的临近，美国媒体《彭博商业周刊》于近日刊登了一篇回顾2025年中美关系的文章。 根据比姆的介绍，美国一些人长期以来一直存在着一种对中国的"惯性思维"，认为经济快速发展的中 国，会在一定时期"陷入困境"，甚至"崩溃"。 "这种观点愈发站不住脚了，因为中国在诸多领域的表现实在太过亮眼"，比姆写道，"那些一心想看到 中国受挫的势力，必须接受一个现实：中国是一个强大的竞争对手 —— 而且会不断发展其已然可观的 优势，在电动汽车、清 ...

邓正红软实力表示，美国发出对俄罗斯采取更强硬措施以促成乌克兰和平协议的信号，并且还宣布封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，受此影响，石油软实力出现反弹 式上行，12月17日（周三）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶涨0.67元至55.94美元，涨幅1.21%；伦 敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.76美元至59.68美元，涨幅1.29%。 美国准备在俄罗斯总统普京拒绝俄乌和平协议的情况下，对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一轮制裁。美国正在考虑多种选项，例如针对运输俄罗斯原油的所谓"影 子油轮船队"的船只，以及便利相关交易的贸易商等。美国总统特朗普表示已下令全面封锁所有受制裁油轮进出委内瑞拉，还说委内瑞拉已被南美历史上规 模最大的舰队完全包围。 当地时间17日，委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计在约10天后达到最大储存上限。上周，委内瑞拉一艘油轮被扣押，再 加上美国计划封锁其他受制裁船只，导致委内瑞拉石油储存能力日益紧张。委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）在周日因网络攻击暂停码头作业后，周三恢 复原油和燃料的船货装载，但由于美国威胁将依据制裁对油轮进行 ...

在印度举办的日本动画展吸引了大量粉丝（9月，印度德里） "日本作品的剧情展开太疯狂了"，一名cos成路飞的印度粉丝说。日本动画为何能在全世界渗透普及？ 日本动画广受欢迎的核心动力是什么？日本经济新闻搜集了世界各地的数据和粉丝的意见…… 9月13~14日，印度德里的一家购物中心吸引了6万350人。他们的目的是参加日本动画展"Mela! Mela! Anime Japan!!"。装扮成《火影忍者》角色的粉丝等参观者比2024年增加了30％。 "日本作品的剧情展开太疯狂了（insane）"，说这句话的法萨尔（音译）头戴草帽，cos成了《航海王》 主角路飞。 一张世界地图反映出人气范围之大 日本动画的影响力不仅仅是"在世界各地广受欢迎"而已。在印度尼西亚及马达加斯加等国家，抗议政府 的游行队伍曾经高举《航海王》中出现的旗帜。源自日本的文化内容甚至成了反权力的象征。 日本动画为何能在全世界渗透普及？为了探明实际情况，日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）采访小 组搜集了世界各地的数据和粉丝的意见。 日本动画受欢迎范围之大可以从一张世界地图反映出来。这张地图上叠加了美国视频平台奈飞 （Netflix）公开的93个国家和地区的 ...

美国能源政策重塑全球供应软实力格局。美国通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，终止电动汽车补贴、压缩可再生能源窗口期，实现了能源战略的"价值创新"， 其页岩油产业展现出强大的资源整合能力：从页岩油日产量增幅，2025年数据是120万桶，2026年预测是占非欧佩克增量的60%；从钻机数量，2025年数据 是410台，2026年预测是持续高位；从石油发电需求增速看，2026年预测同比增长8%。这种政策转向创造了独特的"美国软实力优势"：一是技术整合优势， 二叠纪盆地开采成本持续下降；二是政策协同优势，传统能源与可再生能源政策形成动态平衡；三是市场调节优势，页岩油产能可快速响应价格波动。但需 注意，美国政策并未改变全球能源变革的长期趋势，电动汽车渗透率仍将保持年均5%增速。 AI产业催生石油消费新变量。全球AI产业的爆发式发展创造了石油消费的"非传统需求增长极"，这是邓正红软实力理论中"价值创新力"的典型案例。一是电 力需求指数增长，2026年AI相关电力需求可能达1050太瓦时，较2022年增长128%；二是油气发电占比提升，北美达42%，欧洲38%；三是燃料油新增需 求，2026年日均增加51万桶，30%来自电力领域。 ...

Economic Goals and Strategies - The 2026 economic work will maintain high target settings to ensure sustainable high-quality development, balancing "hard power" and "soft power" while optimizing resource utilization[3][19] - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain high, reflecting the resilience of economic growth and guiding positive societal expectations[4][19] Hard and Soft Power Development - The enhancement of national comprehensive strength requires a balance between economic, technological, and defense "hard power" and cultural, institutional, and diplomatic "soft power"[5][20] - Policies supporting the development of "soft power" are anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on quality cultural products and services[5][20] Supply-Side Reforms and Employment - The new round of supply-side reforms will focus on optimizing supply and utilizing existing capacity, addressing "overcapacity" as a resource to be developed[7][24] - Emphasis on "stabilizing employment" as a priority, with policies aimed at creating new job opportunities and addressing structural unemployment among youth[9][29] Policy Implementation and Coordination - Effective policy implementation is crucial, requiring sustained efforts over time to ensure that policies benefit individuals and businesses[10][30] - The focus on policy synergy emphasizes the need for new policies to align with existing ones, avoiding conflicts and ensuring comprehensive implementation[11][31] Domestic Market Strengthening - The domestic market must not only be large but also resilient, with a focus on enhancing internal demand and ensuring supply chain security[12][35] - Building a strong domestic market involves diversifying supply and fostering innovation to make consumption a leading force in domestic demand growth[12][35] Social Welfare and Living Standards - Continuous improvement of living standards is essential, with a focus on social security mechanisms to provide a safety net for citizens[13][36] - The government aims to enhance overall living quality while addressing specific local needs through grassroots initiatives[13][36] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include fiscal and monetary policies falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and complex external environments[14][37][38]

邓正红软实力表示，市场评估俄乌和平协议谈判以及两国之间冲突的走向，担忧供应过剩，石油软实力承压运行，12月2日（周二）国际油价走低。截至收 盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.68元至58.64美元，跌幅1.15%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.72 美元至62.45美元，跌幅1.14%。在供应过剩的全球格局中，近期对价格构成压力的动向，与周末期间加剧的针对俄罗斯基础设施的袭击以及美国与委内瑞拉 之间不断升温的紧张局势形成了平衡，随着俄罗斯籍船只也成为袭击目标，地缘政治风险溢价在过去几个交易日有所上升。 俄罗斯石油生产商正面临困境，在原油价格下跌、制裁和货币走强的背景下举步维艰。俄罗斯总统普京发出威胁，可能对在冲突中援助乌克兰的国家的船只 采取报复措施。但普京也强调了俄罗斯经济增长的必要性，在另一个场合称政府对一些行业出现的不平衡现象不满意。分析指出，市场对油价下跌的广泛预 期仍然占据主导地位。流动性正在迅速枯竭，鉴于当前悲观的市场情绪，这加剧了原油价格大幅下跌的风险。美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，截至 12 月 1 日（周一），至少有 30 个州的汽油平均零 ...

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances, with investors weighing the potential impact of U.S. diplomatic efforts on Russian oil supply [1][2] - OPEC's decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 reflects a strategic move to manage market expectations and avoid drastic price fluctuations [4][5] - The optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement in Ukraine is countered by skepticism regarding the immediate impact on Russian oil supply, indicating a complex interplay of market psychology [4][5] Group 2 - The concept of "soft power" in the oil market emphasizes the importance of demand-driven economic growth and the ability of oil-producing nations to influence market dynamics through strategic production adjustments [3][4] - The current oil market dynamics are characterized by a blend of geopolitical developments and supply-demand fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of OPEC's upcoming decisions and the progress of peace negotiations in Ukraine [5][8] - The analysis of the oil market through the lens of soft power highlights the significance of rule restructuring and expectation management in shaping market behavior and outcomes [4][5]

Core Insights - Wood Mackenzie warns that global oil demand will continue to rise at least until 2032, indicating a deviation from the Paris Agreement goals [1] - The primary drivers of oil demand are transportation and petrochemical needs, despite significant investments in energy transition [1] - Fossil fuels still account for approximately 80% of global primary energy demand, highlighting the challenges in transitioning to renewable energy [1] Group 1: Energy Demand Dynamics - The report emphasizes that fossil fuels remain widely available and cost-competitive, deeply embedded in the energy system [1] - Coal demand reached a historical high last year and is expected to break records again this year, indicating persistent reliance on fossil fuels [1] - The surge in electricity consumption by data centers has led to a rush in building baseload power sources, underscoring the limitations of renewable energy to meet incremental demand [1] Group 2: Structural Challenges in Energy Transition - The findings align with Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory, which highlights the need for rule reconstruction, demand drivers, and system collaboration in energy value upgrades [2] - The report indicates that despite trillions invested in energy transition, fossil fuels still dominate due to the structural contradictions in the energy market [2] - The shift in market dominance is characterized by OPEC transitioning from a traditional production controller to a technology standard setter [2] Group 3: Demand-Driven Growth - Deng Zhenghong's demand-driven economic growth paradigm aligns with the report's conclusion on the continuous rise in oil demand [3] - Key factors include the growing global vehicle ownership, recovery in the aviation sector, and strong demand for petrochemical products in developing countries [3] - The industrialization processes in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, are driving rigid energy demand growth [3] Group 4: Energy System Imbalances - Deng Zhenghong's "soft-hard synergy" philosophy provides a framework for understanding the "energy overlay" phenomenon [4] - The report highlights the hard power of sufficient fossil fuel capacity and the soft power challenge of fragmented technology standard-setting [4] - Issues such as the weather dependency of renewable energy and the higher comprehensive costs (including storage) compared to thermal power reflect deep-seated imbalances in the energy system [4] Group 5: Pathways for Collaborative Development - Deng Zhenghong argues that energy transition is a false proposition, advocating for the clean transformation of fossil energy rather than a complete exit [5] - The report suggests that future competition will hinge on rule dominance, technology standards, and value innovation [5] - Key strategies include recognizing long-term energy demand curves, designing rules that balance emission reduction and energy security, and fostering dialogue between oil-producing and consuming countries [5]

Group 1 - OPEC has decided to increase oil production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day in December, following a previous reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day, due to favorable market conditions and low global inventories [1] - The eight OPEC member countries will suspend production increases in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal factors, with the potential for the previously reduced production to be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions [1] - The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2025, and the organization has received compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman to address overproduction, covering the period from last month to June 2026 [1] Group 2 - The theory of soft power by Deng Zhenghong emphasizes that the essence of oil market price fluctuations is the transformation of energy forms under rule constraints, with OPEC's production decisions influencing supply and demand through market expectations [2] - OPEC's strategy of "incremental increase + seasonal pause" aims to reshape market order through both technical standards (soft power) and production adjustments (hard power) [2] - The analysis highlights that despite an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day in 2025, market expectations of oversupply persist, indicating weaknesses in OPEC's soft power dimension [3] Group 3 - The current energy landscape is characterized by a shift from traditional hard power, focused on production and reserves, to a soft power phase centered on rule-making and expectation management [4] - Key contradictions include the fragmentation of rules and discrepancies between OPEC's compensation plans and actual execution by member countries, as well as a decline in the shale oil industry's technological drive [4] - Future competition in energy soft power will focus on technological sovereignty, standard-setting for carbon capture and hydrogen energy, and the transition from linear resource-capacity thinking to a network of rules and values [4] Group 4 - OPEC's recent decision reflects a stress test of its soft power system, showcasing flexibility through a combination of production increases and pauses, while still struggling to reverse oversupply expectations [5] - The analysis suggests that the oil market is undergoing a paradigm shift from resource control to rule reconstruction, indicating a need for sustainable rule innovation effectiveness [5]

Group 1 - OPEC alliance is expected to focus on a slight increase in production during the upcoming weekend meeting, while U.S. President Donald Trump denies plans for military action against Venezuela [1] - As of October 31, international oil prices showed slight increases, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $60.98 per barrel, up 0.68%, and Brent crude oil at $65.07 per barrel, up 0.11% [1] - Traders are assessing the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, with European refiners warning that the market may be underestimating these sanctions' effects [2] Group 2 - Speculative sentiment in the market is rising, as evidenced by a significant increase in net long positions in Brent crude oil futures, which rose by 119,046 contracts to 171,567 contracts as of the week ending October 28 [2] - Analysts maintain their oil price forecasts, with the average price for Brent crude expected to be $67.99 per barrel in 2025, an increase of approximately $0.38 from previous estimates [2] - The oil market is projected to experience oversupply in 2026, with daily surplus estimates ranging from 190,000 to 3 million barrels [2] Group 3 - OPEC's gradual production increase strategy aims to reshape market expectations while avoiding price shocks and signaling "controllable supply" [3] - The current market pricing logic has shifted from traditional supply-demand dynamics to a "geopolitical-financial dual spiral," where policy signals from oil-producing countries directly influence oil price fluctuations [3] - OPEC's production policy has evolved from "production cuts to stabilize prices" to "increased production to capture market share," reflecting a strategic adjustment [3] Group 4 - U.S. sanctions have a dual effect, cutting off Venezuela's oil export revenues while not fully blocking trade through third parties like Cuba; for Russia, sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have led to plans to sell international assets [4] - European refiners warn that the impact of sanctions may lead to regional supply tightness, prompting oil-producing countries to accelerate "de-dollarization" in trade arrangements [4] - The surge in speculative positions in the futures market reflects expectations of supply shortages, creating a "dual spiral" effect with geopolitical risks amplifying price volatility [4] Group 5 - The future of soft power competition in the oil market includes challenges such as the weakening of shale oil's capital-driven transformation and the acceleration of energy-intensive industries' relocation due to carbon tariffs [5] - The expansion of digital trade and improvements in energy efficiency are expected to suppress oil demand elasticity in the long term [5] - Oil-producing countries need to enhance their rule-making, value innovation, and alliance management capabilities to take the initiative in the global energy transition [5]