美国彭博社 9 月 16 日文章，原题：世界开始讨厌你最喜欢的品牌了吗？ 1990年，麦当劳在莫斯科开业 了，很多人排队数小时，只为尝到第一口"巨无霸"，感受美国文化。对于美国品牌如何受益于美国软实 力并促进美国软实力在全球的传播，这可能是最好的例子。正如经济学家安德鲁·罗斯所说："赢得了民 心，也就赢得了销售。"然而，随着美国政府近年放弃赢取民心的策略，转而采取施压和经济胁迫的手 段，世界其他地区对美国所销售的产品——无论是美国品牌还是它们所代表的价值观——兴趣已大大降 低。 美国企业界应该担心的是，这不仅仅是一场抵制运动。抵制运动往往会失败，很少产生重大影响。欧洲 央行的经济学家预测，这可能是"长期结构性转变"，美国品牌将失宠。他们的研究发现，欧洲消费者购 买非美国产品的动机更多是出于偏好，而不是价格，这意味着这是一个情感决定，而不是经济决定。 美国产品也有可能失去对其他全球品牌的吸引力，这些品牌的原产国已经认识到软实力的重要性。美国 在品牌金融咨询公司发布的《2025年全球软实力指数》中仍然排名第一，但该咨询公司称，随着美国的 全球声誉受到打击，美国的得分停滞不前。与此同时，中国攀升至第二位，达到有史以 ...

乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂叠加美联储降息预期，国际油价应声上涨。地缘冲突与金融政策共振，改写传统能源安全逻辑，软实力博弈正重塑全球石油 定价体系。邓正红软实力表示，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并且市场预计美联储本周降息，地缘溢价叠加降息预期给石油软实力注入向上势能，周一 （9月15日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.61美元至63.30美元，涨幅0.97%；伦敦洲际交易 所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.45美元至67.44美元，涨幅0.67%。美国总统特朗普表示，如果北约国家停止购买俄罗斯石油，他就准备对俄罗斯实施 制裁。俄罗斯官员周日表示，乌克兰发动大规模袭击，至少出动361架无人机瞄准俄罗斯，在西北部巨大的基里希炼油厂引发短暂火灾。 上周国际原油期货涨超1%，因乌克兰加大了对俄罗斯石油基础设施的袭击，包括最大的石油出口终端普里莫尔斯克。普里莫尔斯克的原油装载能力约为每 日100万桶，而基里希炼油厂每日加工约35.5万桶俄罗斯原油，相当于该国总量的6.4%。分析认为，普里莫尔斯克遇袭表明扰乱国际石油市场的意愿日益增 强，这可能给油价带来上行压力 ...

Group 1 - The discussion around the potential global impact of China's digital currency, the digital renminbi, highlights its significance in the evolution of a cashless economy and raises questions about the future of international monetary transactions without it [2][4] - The influence of Chinese culture, particularly the revival of Chinese tea culture, is noted for its economic impact in several Southern African countries, showcasing how niche cultural phenomena can drive local economies [4][5] - China's advancements in smart agricultural machinery, including autonomous tractors, are contributing to improved planting efficiency in various African nations, addressing the growing global food security challenges [5] Group 2 - China's green bond market is leading globally, with projections indicating that nearly one-third of the total issuance in 2024 will come from China, emphasizing its role in the global green finance landscape [7] - The rapid expansion of the renewable energy market in South America, driven by the promotion of Chinese photovoltaic equipment, positions China as a key player in the global transition to sustainable energy [7] - The conversation around the question "What would the world be like without China?" encourages a multifaceted exploration of China's contributions across technology, culture, and finance, suggesting that these non-mainstream achievements are integral to modern global development [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFT) is being held in Beijing, with participation from 85 countries and international organizations, highlighting its role in enhancing service trade cooperation between China and other nations [1][2] - The fair serves as a professional platform for addressing service trade development issues, emphasizing the urgent need for rule alignment, optimized business environments, and standardized practices in the context of the growing importance of service trade in the global economy [1][2] - CIFT is recognized as a showcase for China's digital technology and innovation capabilities, with services like cloud computing, big data, and cross-border e-commerce driving the vitality of service trade and providing opportunities for overseas Chinese businesses [1][2] Group 2 - The fair is evolving from a "showcase" to a "transaction platform + scenario hub," enhancing the efficiency of cooperation and transactions through an immersive experience that integrates various sectors [2] - CIFT acts as a multifunctional bridge for overseas Chinese businesses, facilitating quick access to Chinese policies and industry ecosystems, matching supply and demand accurately, and amplifying brand visibility in the service trade sector [2]

地缘冲突推高油价，欧佩克战略静默与俄炼油产能受损形成"剪刀差效应"，技术性买盘加速市场恐慌。乌克兰摧毁17%俄炼油能力，供应缺口或从短期转向 长期。邓正红软实力表示，地缘性因素抬升软实力溢价，市场预计欧佩克联盟不太可能进一步增加市场供应，技术性买盘助推了现货市场持续吃紧迹象驱动 的石油软实力反弹，周二（9月2日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨1.58美元至65.59美元，涨幅 2.47%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.99美元至69.14美元，涨幅1.45%。俄乌冲突局势恶化引发对俄罗斯供应韧性质疑，同时华盛顿 政策对主要石油消费国的影响仍存不确定性。乌克兰对俄罗斯两座炼油厂发动袭击，延续对能源设施的打击。此举已经开始冲击原油供应，使得8月俄罗斯 原油加工量降至2022年5月以来的低点。 供应管理预期维度，欧佩克联盟政策小组9月7日会议前的"战略静默期"产生双重软实力效应：沙特维持财政收支平衡所需的每桶78美元价格底线，俄罗斯因 炼厂受损被迫增加原油出口的短期对冲。模型显示，联盟220万桶的日减产计划解除节奏每延迟1个月，将产生每桶约2. ...

地缘冲突与金融因素双重推动油价上涨，俄原油出口降至四周最低，印度成关键缓冲市场。美元走弱与期货市场变化进一步推高油价，沙特主导的欧佩克联 盟或掌握未来定价权。邓正红软实力表示，市场担忧俄乌冲突加剧可能导致供应中断，美元走弱，地缘与金融因素支持石油软实力向上，周一（9月1日）国 际油价走高。截至收盘，伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.67美元至68.15美元，涨幅0.99%。截至美国东部时间下午2：15，纽约商品期 货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.67美元至64.68美元，涨幅1.05%。 由于美国劳动节假期，周一西得克萨斯轻质原油期货将不结算。受此影响，布伦特原油和西得克萨斯轻质原油的交易量均有所下降。目前油价仍处于相持阶 段，下有支撑，上有阻力，波动区间进一步收窄，市场等待进一步的驱动出现。白宫内部人士透露，特朗普正在认真考虑暂停外交努力，直到一方或双方表 现出更多灵活性，欧洲方面正在通过说服乌克兰总统泽连斯基再等等更好条件，来破坏美俄领导人会晤以来取得的进展。此前欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表 示，欧洲正在制定相当精确的计划，将向乌克兰部署多国部队，作为冲突后安全保障的一部分 ...

Core Insights - The conversation highlights the transformative impact of AI on the job market, particularly in programming roles, and emphasizes the need for individuals to adapt by developing product thinking and soft skills [2][3][4]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Employment - AI is reshaping the employment landscape, with traditional programming roles being increasingly replaced by AI-driven solutions like vibe coding, which allows non-programmers to create software [7][9][10]. - The demand for software engineers is polarizing, with top AI experts becoming more valuable while entry-level positions are diminishing, leading graduates from prestigious institutions to seek unpaid internships for experience [23][24][25]. - The trend of companies preferring AI over training new employees is growing, particularly in the context of economic downturns and layoffs in large firms [25][27][28]. Group 2: Skills for the Future - The future job market will favor individuals with a combination of technical and soft skills, termed "builders," who can design products and collaborate effectively with AI [33][35]. - The traditional notion of "working for a living" may be challenged as AI takes over repetitive tasks, allowing humans to focus on more meaningful pursuits [38][40]. - The importance of personal branding and unique human experiences is emphasized, as these qualities cannot be replicated by AI [55][56]. Group 3: Education and Development - The educational approach should shift towards fostering soft skills, emotional intelligence, and adaptability, rather than solely technical skills [76][78]. - Parents are encouraged to prioritize their own development to create a supportive environment for their children, focusing on cultural literacy and social skills [84][88]. - The integration of AI tools in education can enhance creativity and curiosity in children, preparing them for a future where AI plays a significant role [101][104]. Group 4: Entrepreneurial Opportunities - There are significant opportunities for startups to leverage AI in traditional sectors, such as recruitment, by automating processes that were previously labor-intensive [106][110]. - Successful AI projects often focus on simplifying and optimizing existing workflows, making previously unfeasible business models viable [116][118]. - Entrepreneurs are advised to seek out pain points in current processes where AI can provide efficiency and cost savings, identifying lucrative opportunities for innovation [119].

Core Viewpoint - The return of four giant pandas from Japan to China has become a significant topic in Sino-Japanese diplomacy, highlighting the soft power and diplomatic role that giant pandas play between the two nations [7][9][17]. Group 1: Panda Diplomacy - The return of the four pandas is linked to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), which restricts the international transfer of endangered species [6]. - China has shifted from gifting pandas to a rental system aimed at breeding, with the first instance being the rental to Japan in 1994 [7]. - Currently, only two pandas remain in Japan, set to return in February 2026, raising the possibility of Japan facing a "zero panda" situation [7][17]. Group 2: Historical Context - Giant pandas have played a role in Sino-Japanese relations since the normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972, when China gifted two pandas to Japan [9]. - The use of pandas in diplomacy dates back to 1941, when two pandas were gifted to the United States by Soong Mei-ling to garner support during the Second Sino-Japanese War [9]. Group 3: Public Diplomacy - As of May 2025, China has rented 45 pandas to 15 countries, including the United States, emphasizing the importance of public diplomacy in international relations [10]. - The cute image of giant pandas helps mitigate China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy image, contributing positively to international public opinion [10][17]. Group 4: Economic and Cultural Impact - The presence of giant pandas in foreign zoos not only fosters diplomatic relations but also generates economic benefits through tourism [15][19]. - The emotional connection and care for pandas in foreign countries enhance their role in fostering goodwill and dialogue between nations [19].

Core Insights - US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.39 million barrels, leading to a 1.4% increase in oil prices, indicating a fierce battle between "inventory repair" and "policy uncertainty" in the market [1][2] - The decline in inventory alleviated investor concerns about an imminent supply surplus, with the market reacting positively to the data [1][3] Inventory and Price Dynamics - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a reduction in crude oil inventories to 418 million barrels, which exceeded market expectations and boosted market sentiment [1][3] - The decline in refined oil inventories also contributed to the overall decrease, suggesting strong demand despite tariff impacts on long-term consumption [1][2] Policy and Geopolitical Factors - The market is currently in a "viewpoint oscillation" phase, influenced by unresolved issues such as potential legal disputes from Trump's removal of Federal Reserve governors and its implications for interest rates [2][4] - The US imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian goods in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which may not alleviate investor concerns about global supply surplus [2][4] Soft Power Mechanisms - The current oil price fluctuations are driven by a tug-of-war between "inventory-driven soft power recovery" and "policy uncertainty leading to soft power depreciation" [2][3] - The inventory data's positive impact on oil prices is reinforced by the "supply elasticity threshold" effect, which activates bullish market sentiment when inventory declines exceed 2 million barrels [3][4] Future Outlook - Key soft power variables influencing oil prices in the next month include the stability of Federal Reserve policies (30% weight), developments in the India tariff situation (25% weight), China's strategic reserve demand (20% weight), and OPEC's production discipline (25% weight) [5] - Observing the continuity of inventory declines and India's procurement strategies will be crucial for understanding the global supply dynamics, with potential impacts on oil prices ranging from $5 to $8 per barrel due to geopolitical risks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of geopolitical tensions and U.S. domestic policies on oil prices, highlighting the volatility in the market due to these factors [1][3][4] - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on Indian products as a response to India's oil purchases from Russia, effective from August 27, which is part of broader efforts by the Trump administration to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine [2][3] - The attacks on the "Friendship" oil pipeline by Ukraine have raised concerns about supply chain disruptions, with a significant reduction in daily oil transport, affecting energy security in Hungary and Slovakia [2][5] Group 2 - The "Deng Zhenghong Soft Power Model" quantifies the influence of geopolitical risks, policy dynamics, and market sentiment on oil prices, indicating that geopolitical soft power is currently a major factor affecting oil price fluctuations [3][4] - The model reveals that the geopolitical risk premium is approximately $3.20 per barrel, reflecting market expectations of supply disruptions over the next 8-12 weeks due to the ongoing conflict [3][4] - The market's reaction to Trump's comments about oil prices dropping below $60 has led to significant trading activity, with algorithmic trading accounts selling 48 million barrels of futures contracts shortly after his remarks [5]