Export Data - In July, China's exports reached $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[2] - From January to July, total exports amounted to $2,130.36 billion, growing by 6.1% year-on-year[2] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year-on-year in July, while exports to the US fell by 21.7%[3] Import Data - In July, imports totaled $223.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[11] - From January to July, imports showed a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[12] - High-tech product imports grew by 7.8% year-on-year in July, despite a decline in certain categories like LCD modules[12] Product Performance - Machinery and high-tech product exports saw a slight decline, with machinery exports growing by 8.0% year-on-year in July[8] - Energy and heavy chemical product exports showed significant improvement, with fertilizer exports soaring by 134.6% year-on-year in July[11] - Light industry product exports were mixed, with categories like toys and bags showing declines of 3.3% and 10.0% respectively in July[10] Market Outlook - The export growth rate in July indicates strong resilience, with expectations for August exports to remain stable[4][14] - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and economic downturns in Europe and the US, which could impact future export performance[14]

Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in USD terms, with a trade surplus of $683.51 billion[1] - In July 2025, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $98.24 billion[1] - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to July's export growth, with contributions of 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively[1] Import Trends - From January to July 2025, imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year[1] - In July 2025, imports showed a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, indicating a slight recovery in domestic demand[1] - Key imported raw materials like oil, black metals, and copper showed improved year-on-year performance, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively[1] - Light industrial products like bags and furniture saw improved export growth, although overall performance remained below the average export growth rate[1] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[1] Economic Context - The resilience in export growth is attributed to ongoing US-China trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods, which helped offset declines in export volumes[1] - Risks include the potential for increased economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as a complex international situation[1]

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.79%[1] - Exports to economies excluding the U.S. increased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.6%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall export growth[1] - Key regions driving export growth included Latin America (+0.8 pct), South Korea (+0.5 pct), and Taiwan (+0.4 pct)[1] U.S. Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July, a decline of 5.6 percentage points compared to June, impacting overall exports by 3.3 percentage points[2] - Container shipping rates to the U.S. dropped approximately 28% in the last week of July compared to the last week of June, indicating a slowdown in trade[2] - The expected monthly export range to the U.S. is projected between $35.8 billion and $38.2 billion, with year-on-year growth unlikely to return to positive figures[2] Regional Export Dynamics - South Korea's exports grew by 5.9% in July, the highest rate this year, driven by semiconductor exports which rose by 31.6%[3] - Vietnam maintained a high export growth rate of 17.7% in July, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 26%[3] - The export growth of labor-intensive products, machinery, and high-tech products showed varying degrees of slowdown, with labor-intensive products declining to -0.6%[4] Import Trends - Total imports in July reached $223.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, up 3 percentage points from June[4] - Significant contributors to import growth included bulk commodities, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, with increases of 1.6, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively[4] - The import of crude oil and copper ore saw notable rebounds, while iron ore imports fell by 8.8%[4] Future Outlook - China's export resilience is expected to continue, with positive year-on-year growth anticipated from August to October 2025, despite potential short-term declines in November and December due to high base effects[6] - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs may further impact global trade dynamics, with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and potential tariff expansions to other economies[6]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in dry bulk throughput and a positive year-on-year change in crude oil throughput for June [1][3] - Overall cargo throughput performance remains stable, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the shipping and port sector [6] Summary by Sections Overview: National Import and Export Volume and Cargo Throughput - In the first half of 2025, the national import and export total reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The import total was 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%, while the export total was 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2% [5][13] - Coastal major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 5.703 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5][30] Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - As of August 1, 2025, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1232.29 points, down 43.49% year-on-year [5][34] - Container throughput for the first half of 2025 reached 15.227 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [5][40] Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 965 points on August 4, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.66% [6][42] - Crude oil imports for the first half of 2025 totaled 279 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6][50] Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 1970 points on August 4, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.47% [6][57] - Iron ore throughput for the first half of 2025 was 686 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.56% [6][63] Monthly Throughput of Key Port Listed Companies - In June 2025, Shanghai Port Group's cargo throughput was 0.52 billion tons, down 1.57% year-on-year, while Ningbo Port's cargo throughput was 1.01 billion tons, up 11.63% year-on-year [6][75]

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, Yiwu's total import and export value reached 405.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% [1] Summary by Category Import and Export Performance - The export value was 358.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [1] - The import value stood at 47.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.3% [1] Market Share - The total import and export value accounted for 14.9% of the province's total, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [1] - The export value represented 17.3% of the province's total, also up by 2.2 percentage points [1] - The import value made up 7.2% of the province's total, increasing by 1.6 percentage points [1]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 2.17 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, accounting for 9.9% of the national total [1] - Exports amounted to 1.31 trillion RMB, while imports were 858.6 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 9.5% [1] - Shenzhen ranked first among mainland cities in both total import and export scale, with imports hitting a historical high for the same period [1] Import and Export Performance - In June 2025, Shenzhen's import and export value was 397.98 billion RMB, showing a growth of 2.6% [1] - Exports in June were 252.84 billion RMB, increasing by 1.4%, while imports reached 145.14 billion RMB, growing by 4.8% [1]

Core Insights - Qingdao's import and export value reached 442.7 billion RMB in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 1% and accounting for 25.6% of Shandong Province's total import and export value [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports totaled 263.8 billion RMB, increasing by 3.6%, while imports were 178.9 billion RMB, decreasing by 2.6% [1] - General trade accounted for over 60% of the total, with a value of 290.5 billion RMB, down 0.6%, representing 65.6% of the total trade [1] - Processing trade saw an increase of 4%, reaching 69.4 billion RMB, making up 15.7% of the total [1] Group 2: Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed 315.88 billion RMB in trade, growing by 4.2% and accounting for 71.4% of the total, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [1] - State-owned enterprises' trade increased by 9.6% to 55.24 billion RMB, representing 12.5% of the total [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a decline of 15.8%, totaling 71.27 billion RMB, which accounted for 16.1% [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - Trade with South Korea reached 30.73 billion RMB, growing by 0.7%, while trade with Russia increased significantly by 28.4% to 27.98 billion RMB [1] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative amounted to 262.85 billion RMB, a growth of 6.7%, making up 59.4% of the total [1] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products exports were 136.56 billion RMB, up 5.8%, constituting 51.8% of total exports [2] - Agricultural product exports reached 23.52 billion RMB, increasing by 2% and accounting for 8.9% of total exports [2] - Oil imports totaled 8.801 million tons, up 14.4%, valued at 32.75 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.8% [2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's total import and export value reached 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.3885% [1] - The Yangtze River Delta region's total import and export value exceeded 8 trillion yuan for the first time, totaling approximately 8.15 trillion yuan [1] Summary by Region - Zhejiang Province's import and export value was 2.73 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - Jiangsu Province's total import and export value reached 2.81 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 5.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - Anhui Province's import and export value amounted to 458.54 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.2%, achieving a historical high for the same period [1]