新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 库存方面：2025-12-15，SMM铅锭库存总量为2.2万吨，较上周同期变化0.14万吨。截止12月15日，LME铅库存为 252475吨，较上一交易日变化17725吨。 策略 现货散单成交寡淡 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-15，LME铅现货升水为-49.62美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50 元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-12-15，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于17010元/吨，较前一交易日变化-11 ...

张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023261 有色情绪退潮， 炼厂维持较高开工 铅周报 从业资格号：F03120988 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：上周五沪铅指数收跌0.14%至17134元/吨，单边交易总持仓7.6万手。截至上周五下午15：00，伦铅3S较前日同期跌4.5至 1984.5美元/吨，总持仓17.01万手。SMM1#铅锭均价17025元/吨，再生精铅均价17000元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据钢联数据，国内社会库存小幅累库0.13万吨至2.29万吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得1.67万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨， 连续合约-连一合约价差-75元/吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.55万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得11万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差- 48.25美元/吨，3-15价差-99.2美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦 ...

截至2025年12月12日当周，沪铅期货主力合约收于17125元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持11176手。 本周(12月8日-12月12日)市场上看，沪铅期货周内开盘报17340元/吨，最高触及17380元/吨，最低下探至17015元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.01%。 消息面回顾： 12月11日金属铅现货价格报17175元/吨，较上一日上涨106.25元/吨，当日涨幅为0.62%。最近一周，金属铅价格累计下跌25元/吨，下跌幅度为 0.15%；最近一个月，金属铅价格累计下跌212.5元/吨，下跌幅度为1.22%。 机构观点汇总： 银河期货：铅价触底反弹后，国内再生铅供应减量预期及库存相对低位支撑价格，但铅蓄消费转淡，叠加进口铅锭流入，社会库存或改善，建议 逢高轻仓试空。 中辉期货：国内原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体上有减量预期，终端电动车及汽车板块仍处于消费淡季，铅价短期延续反弹承压走势。 华中地区某小型再生铅冶炼企业因环保管控因素近两日停产，环比上周产量下滑约300吨；企业表示影响有限，复产在即。 12月11日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)：铅注册仓单125525吨，注销仓单109950吨，减少127 ...

铅年报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 成本与过剩角力 铅价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/20 铅市宽幅震荡 原生端，2025年全球铅精矿新增产能11 万吨，2026 年小幅增加至 23 万吨，铅精矿供应由短缺装向紧 平衡。预计内外加工费保持低位，跌幅收窄。废 旧电瓶报废量较稳定，供应难以匹配需求，供需 错配的格局下，废旧电瓶价格易涨难跌。 冶炼端，预计 2026 年全球精炼铅供应增幅放缓， 其中国内原生铅产量增加 10 万吨至 394 万吨，主 要由火烧云及新凌铅业新增项目贡献，增幅收窄。 再生铅新国标落地实施将加速行业洗牌，原料及 利润的双重掣肘难改，炼厂产能利用率预计保持 低位，全年产量 ...

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 有色金属周报-铅 基本面有所改善，铅价企稳回升 2025年12月9日 行情回顾 2 检修结束，原生铅开工回升 目录 CONCENTS 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。目前进口矿几乎无报价的现状 | | | | | 持续，2026年的长单谈判分歧较大，签订缓慢；国内贸易 | | | | | 市场上，随着银价接连走高，部分地区铅精矿资源已售罄 | | | | | 且加工费维持低位，部分炼厂四季度长单到货后暂停12月 | | | | | 采购计划，铅精矿市场供需双降，加工费维持平稳。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：随着报废量减少且炼厂开工较好，废电瓶 | 国内铅锭供给地域性收紧，下游消 | | | | 货源趋紧，价格跌势暂止。 | 费亦有所好转，加之宏观情绪偏暖， | | |  | 供给端：原生铅方面检修与复产并存，开工小幅波动，后 | 铅价逐步企稳回升，市场成交来看， | ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a mixed situation with a decline in lead prices leading to improved downstream purchasing activity, while tight raw material supply continues to restrict smelter operations [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead ingot supply has gradually recovered since mid-November, but high lead prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, resulting in a price decline from previous highs [1]. - The lead concentrate market remains tight, with processing fees at historically low levels. Domestic smelters have begun winter stockpiling, but the import window for lead concentrate has not fully opened [2]. - Domestic lead concentrate resources are nearly sold out due to rising silver prices, leading to sparse market quotes and low processing fees. However, the arrival of previously contracted imports has alleviated some raw material shortages [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - The willingness of traders to sell has improved as many domestic recycled lead smelters have shifted to a multi-raw material production model, reducing their reliance on waste batteries [3]. - Despite a decline in processing fees, the prices of by-products like sulfuric acid and silver remain high, keeping overall profits for smelters relatively strong [3]. - The downstream market for electric bicycle batteries is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive battery market is entering a peak replacement season, leading to increased production rates among larger enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The lead market is expected to see a regional tightening of supply as primary lead smelters enter maintenance phases, while recycled lead smelters maintain stable operating rates if raw material arrivals remain consistent [4]. - The recent decline in lead prices has led to a recovery in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with lead ingot inventories decreasing [4]. - The tight supply of raw materials is unlikely to improve significantly, which will continue to restrict smelter operations and limit the downward potential for lead prices [4].

上一交易日SMM1#铅锭平均价格较前日上涨0.15%，沪铅主力收盘较前一日持平。 【市场资讯】 12月4日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得16553吨，较上一交易日下降76吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计下 降10942吨，下降幅度为39.80%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计下降5092吨，下降幅度为23.53%。 本周多地再生铅冶炼厂反映废铅酸蓄电池到厂量有所减少，原料供应收紧。华北地区某大型再生铅冶炼 厂因原料紧缺，计划于下周开始停产，具体复产时间尚未确定。 分析观点： 银河期货研报：近期含铅废料价格有所反弹，再生铅冶炼成本有所抬升；叠加铅价相对低位，冶炼厂惜 售行为明显。国内原生铅冶炼存有检修，产量受到一定影响，国内社会库存及仓单均有减少。短期铅价 或区间偏强震荡，后续仍需关注库存及下游消费情况。 （12月4日）全国铅价格一览 表 规格 品牌/产 地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 17125元/ 吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 17200元/ 吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is regionally tightened, and the price of lead may stop falling and stabilize. The raw materials of lead, including lead concentrate and waste batteries, are facing different situations. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the cost - support of waste batteries has loosened. On the supply side, the start - up rates of both primary and secondary lead have declined. On the demand side, the terminal market is differentiated, and the overall start - up rate of batteries has increased. The import profit window has opened, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,975 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.44% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic disk) decreased by 0.40% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The TC quotation of lead concentrate is stable with a weakening trend. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The profit of smelters is good, with a profit of 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. 2. Primary Lead - **Processing Fee and Profit**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit (excluding by - product benefits such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of primary lead decreased to 65.32% on a month - on - month basis [36]. - **Production and Maintenance Arrangements**: The total weekly production of primary lead decreased from 49,550 tons in the week of November 21 to 46,410 tons this week. Some enterprises had maintenance, resulting in production cuts [41]. 3. Secondary Lead - **Raw Material Price and Cost Support**: As of November 28, the average price of waste batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The cost support has loosened [48]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 220 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 12 yuan/ton as of November 28. The profit improved in the second half of the week as the lead price rebounded [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The start - up rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.5% [57][60]. 4. Lead Batteries - The start - up rate of lead batteries increased by 2.83 percentage points to 73.39%. The terminal market is differentiated. The electric bicycle battery market is weakening, while the automobile battery market is in the replacement peak season [67]. 5. Import and Export - As of November 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 3,200 yuan/ton, and the import was profitable at 143.13 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window has opened [78]. 6. Lead Ingot Inventory - As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places was 3.5 tons, showing a decline. The warehouse inventory of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 9,100 tons, showing a month - on - month increase. As of November 28, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.78 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 26.09 tons, also showing a decrease [88][93]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94].

Core Viewpoint - Recent lead prices have shown a slight recovery, influenced by inventory levels, cost factors, and macroeconomic conditions [1] Inventory Factors - As of December 2, the average spot price for lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.29%) and a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton (0.73%) [1] - Downstream demand has led to a reduction in domestic warehouse receipts, with current lead ingot warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange being less than 20,000 tons, which has provided some support for lead prices [1] Cost Factors - The price of recycled batteries had previously faced downward pressure, making it difficult for recyclers to purchase at low prices, but there has been a slight recovery in battery prices, which has supported the bottom line for lead prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, leading to a weaker US dollar, which has generally supported the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - However, there are short-term expectations of weakening demand, which may limit the upward potential for lead prices [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].