Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the visible inventory of lead ore has further increased and is higher than the same period in previous years, the high by - product profit suppresses the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has slightly declined but remains at a high level, while the secondary smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventories of primary and secondary smelting plants and the social inventory of lead ingots have all increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. However, it is worth noting that the lead price has declined with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is blocked, the raw materials for secondary smelting have tightened, and the secondary smelting profit calculated based on spot orders is marginally under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.23% at 17,106 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 103,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 6 to 2,026 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.219, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 201.44 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 93,000 tons, the secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15] - Production Data: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17] - Total Supply: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In October 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total production of lead ore was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 93,000 tons. The secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. In December 2025, China's secondary lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - Trade and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, with a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [40] - Battery Exports: In December 2025, the net export volume of lead - containing lead - acid batteries was 1,664,900 units, with a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, with a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [43] - Inventory: In December 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [45] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [50][52][55] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [64] - Overseas Balance: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 98,400 tons [67] 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [72] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton [74] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [77] - Position: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove the lead price up, but it fell back with the general correction of non - ferrous metal prices in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On January 20, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,250 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,736 lots, a decrease of 34,227 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 74,190 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,275 yuan/ton and a low of 17,180 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, with the overall spot market being dull [2] Inventory - On January 20, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 19, the LME lead inventory was 225,575 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the price range of 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with lead futures showing a downward trend, reaching a low of 17,170.00 yuan/ton and a decline of approximately 2.33% [1] - The current market sentiment indicates a shift towards strong supply and weak demand, with primary lead production recovering as smelters in Hunan and Jiangxi resume operations [1] - The consumption side is experiencing a traditional off-season, with demand for lead-acid batteries not meeting expectations, leading to high inventory levels [1] Group 2 - The lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the supply of waste batteries is tight, providing some support for lead prices [2] - The overall production of primary lead is stable, while the recovery of recycled lead is limited due to environmental controls in some regions [2] - Battery sales are poor, leading to an accumulation of finished battery inventory, which may result in battery manufacturers reducing their operating rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive, with loose monetary expectations at home and abroad and geopolitical conflicts increasing the premium of resource - end products, which led to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [4] - Fundamentally, the supply of domestic lead ore raw materials remained tight, and the processing fee was at a low level. In the electrolytic lead sector, there were both production cuts and restarts in January, with a slight expected increase in production. In the recycled lead sector, raw material constraints still existed, and the production was expected to decline slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, consumption expectations were under pressure, and social inventories were expected to rise slowly. [4] - Overall, the macro - environment was positive, and non - ferrous metals rotated up. The supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, and the lead price was expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector. However, due to the strong cost support, the downside space of the lead price was limited. [4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,355 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2046.5 dollars/ton to 2037.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.48 to 8.58, an increase of 0.10. [5] - The SHFE inventory increased from 30,111 tons to 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 222,725 tons to 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons; the social inventory increased from 1.96 million tons to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons; the spot premium decreased from - 130 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [5] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely at a high level, closing at 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. LME lead first declined and then rose, closing at 2038 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. [6] - In the spot market, the supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, resulting in sluggish trading. The inventory of recycled lead smelters was high, and some lead smelting enterprises would limit production due to smog warnings, which was expected to ease the shipping pressure of holders. [6] Industry News - On January 16, 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining unchanged from the previous week. [9] - Starting from April 14, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will no longer accept the warehousing registration of certain zinc and lead brands. [9] - On January 16, 2026, Fuyang, Anhui issued an orange warning, and local recycled lead smelters would reduce production by 50%. [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead price spreads, waste battery prices, enterprise profits, production volumes, and social inventories, which help to comprehensively analyze the lead market. [10][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][29][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with lead futures closing at 17,550.00 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.78% [1] - The supply of primary lead raw materials is tight, with TC remaining low, leading to a marginal reduction in supply [2] - The demand side faces pressure due to anti-dumping duties imposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council on Chinese lead-acid batteries, effective from January 13, resulting in increased tariffs of 25.8% to 74% on piston battery exports, which negatively impacts lead price trends [2] Group 2 - Domestic primary lead social inventory has reached historically low levels, with an increase of 2,800 tons last week [2] - The outlook for the market indicates that the supply tightness in lead ingots is easing due to increased raw material arrivals at recycled lead smelters, leading to a short-term rebound in lead prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro funds and industrial seat funds. The volatility of Shanghai lead has significantly increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may push the lead price to have short - term pulses and deviate from the fundamental oscillation range. It is expected that the lead price will mainly oscillate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,381 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S rose 9 to 2,040 US dollars/ton with a total position of 177,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,025 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 51,000 tons, the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59% [11] 3.2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In November 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 138,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 21.11% and a month - on - month change of 16.45%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,441,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.85% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,900 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.09% and a month - on - month change of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,973,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.62%. In October 2025, overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates at the primary end was 51,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. The total domestic lead ingot supply in November was 723,900 tons, with a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35] 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, with a year - on - year change of - 22.0% and a month - on - month change of - 5.23%. From January to November, the total net export of lead - containing batteries was 19,680,580 units, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 10.47% [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. The use of lead in the automobile sector is mainly for automobile starting batteries. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high demand for replacement of starting batteries support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton [71] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was relatively high. The LME lead investment fund seats became net - long, and the net - short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds increased [77]

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17350元，高点报17400元，低点报17235 元，结算价17315元，收盘17355元/吨，跌165元，跌幅0.94%。今日沪铅主力合约成交量58684手，持仓 量42928手减少3100手。伦铅最新价报2038.5美元，涨22美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17200-17300元/吨，均价17250元，跌150元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17200-17300元/吨，均价17250元，跌150元。今日现货铅市场报价在17200-17300元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水55-升水45元/吨，沪期铅2602合约贴水130-贴水30元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，当前宏观与地缘环境对铅市的影响，呈现"预期传导大于实质 冲击、整体压制强于个别支撑"的特点。宏观层面，美元在政策不确定性中获得支撑，对大宗商品构成 普遍压制，而美股科技股回调引发的风险偏好收敛，也加剧了资金从有色板块流出。尽管地缘局势紧 张，但铅市自身基本面疲软，使其难以吸引避险资金，反而在宏观情绪转冷时更显脆弱。供应端，刚果 （金）大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 8, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.10 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,520 lots, an increase of 4,179 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 46,028 lots, a decrease of 5,981 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,760 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,350 yuan/ton and closed at 17,290 yuan/ton, a 0.26% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price increased by 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In different regions, the quotes of smelters and traders varied. Due to the continuous strengthening of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading was weak [2] Inventory - On January 8, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of January 8, the LME lead inventory was 226,450 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]